Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying
Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.
Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
the center is moving WNW, what some of you may be thinking is landfall, is convection with the center moving from the south side to the north side of the center
the center is due West of Panama City moving WNW
I thought so too, but still not sure.
I sense an argument though!
Now, the NHC's definition of well defined and mine may be a little different. Comparing this to other tropical systems, I don't think the center is that "well defined", that said, it can be broad and well defined at the same time.
Thank you weathersp...
Np...
Posted By: KoritheMan
weathersp, I don't know if I'm just wanting to see this (not really... not a wishcaster), or if my eyes are playing tricks on me cause I'm tired or what, but the COC looked like it moved west in the very last loop of that radar image.
I dont think so.. Even if so that won't save it..
This is proving to be a very quiet season so far ( that may change, but I doubt it ), and so far there have been 6 storms that would qualify for names, if we had not started the season trying to make up 15-18 storms.
I cant understand the need to predict all these horrors, on no evidence.
Whats up ?
Thanks,
Sheri
and any unexpected move would bring it to land like someone else here said
just have to wait and see
its a depresion is common to see a broad circulation if it becomes a TS then the circulation becomes better defined
:P
umm
If you live in Destin and Ft. Walton Beach, you should see a wicked looking dark mass of clouds heading your way from east to west!!!
I can only imagine how cool that must look. Be careful. Tornado eddies probably exist in a band this intense!!!!
im more woried about that area of convection in the central atlantic that has a lot of water to go through
umm
Are u refering to the area assoc with the ITCZ?
STill Vortexes swinging around a Mean center...the IR loop shows the Depression.
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
Thank you PatRap i agree they are not look at the main center...
456 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BONIFAY...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...THIS
INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHIPLEY...
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
Posted By: JLPR at 9:56 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
im more woried about that area of convection in the central atlantic that has a lot of water to go through
umm
Are u refering to the area assoc with the ITCZ?
yes with the itcz and a few tropical waves that are around there
And if what jp is saying is correct (which I do agree with, the center is still barely offshore), then it is not very well defined imho and it will make landfall between Mary E and Gulf Shores.
Do you mean Gulf Breeze? (There's quite a distance between Mary Esther and Gulf Shores, AL.)
It's barely moving now, and if it backs off the mainland anymore than it already is, watch out!!!
Hugo
Hugo
That was one amazing night. I was about 17; sitting in the hall way with my Mom on her birthday while dad was at the fire station because he worked for the town. Hard to describe what something like this is unless you have been through it.
StormJunkie.com
Off to celebrate Mom's birthday tonight, see y'all later.
Hes diverted his attention to the area in the Caribbean.
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