Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying
Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.
Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
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yeah, the ridge has help the wind shear drop from almost 30 knots yesterday to about 5-10 knots..the last time i check.
Plan on doing more in the future addressing different sites and tools used for tracking. Have to wait until my voice is back to normal though. This sinus infection has postponed that for a little while!
Saw the ECMWF SW, but this area that I have been seeing on the models does not seem to be the same thing as it seems to move onshore in the next 6 days or so.
Man can I remember what I was doing 18trs ago today.
As for hurricane season being a business for some, yes it is. But then again, I guess you would argue that funeral parlor owners are evil folks hoping for people to die, or cancer dr's are hoping for folks to get cancer, or EMT's are hoping for a car accident, or that police don't want to stop crime because it would put them out of work if they ever succeeded. Your argument really holds no weight imho.
25 Knots
1010 mb
I'm not a frequent poster here. I am a frequent observer.
You're right; hurricanes are big business but so are auto accidents. There are some who thrive on disaster mongering and catastrophy wishing. They are not unique to tropical storms. Whether it be a plane crash, earthquake, volcano, act of terrorism, they glee.
I have found on this blog most are more interested in the formation of tropical storm and trying to understand their paths and their intensities than doomsaying or doom-hoping.
Most posters here are more scientist than anything else. Science is about observing, collecting data, hypothesising, presenting to peers, debating, and drawing conclusions. I find that all here.
I suggest you lurk or observe. I think you'll find that to be true.
LOL. We are getting old :)
Okay Mr. wx expert...where's your forecast and data to back it up?
I never said I was an expert..I'm just making an observation. I live on the coast so I keep up with storms but thats about it. But you're making my point. How can anyone come out with a weather prediction months in advance based on some computer data and their best educated guesses. You can't control Mother Nature. You think they would have figured this out by now. Deal with each storm one at a time as they appear..but coming out with these predictions is silly...they are making just that..predictions . I'd be just as well off going to see a fortune teller. That's my point...it's business and money.
The "experts" called for an above average season...so far, it has been.
What's your complaint about the experts, if their correct? You're complaining about them being wrong and their not, so far.
What else do you want to complain about?
Taco :0)
Wish i could remember,sorry. Funny thing is I was living with a girl that worked @ the Atlantic house
Well that was weird. Your original pic of 94L was of Felix...Very strange. Image seems to be correct now.
Drak, is that just supposed to be some correlation with the last 94L?
I think thats a personal issue. On my computer it shows 94L in the Caribbean.
94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-180N-855W
Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.
JMO
A personal issue...lmao...No it was not a personal issue...You are a trip :~)
Your image was a visible image of Felix just past the Islands. I think it had something to do with the WU just getting the images updated.
I wasn't trying to make a joke. What you saw and what i saw were different things.
Link
Lightningcharmer you are right..most are here for study of storms etc..My problem is with the ones higher up that create all this.
You have a problem with the ones higher up that are calling for an above average season, when it's an above average season, so far. Their correct.
Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.
Drak, do you not use the GHCC site? It's like your own personal floater.
Find that link and much more on the Quick Links page.
yes i do use that site. I prefer the SSD site better...
Again, I think it was just the WU updating their images.
Not liking this for TX/LA/MS area... Don't have a good feeling about this one...
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