Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying
Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.
Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't know what it is, but I definitely see something rotating further out in the gulf. I'm not saying it's a new CoC (I wouldn't know) or anything... but something is going on.
I see it too??? I noticed it a while back. I dont know what it is...It is getting more together. I have been waiting for someone to say something about it.
I was just going to ask the same question
How does/did Bastardi and accuweather get this one so wrong. Early in week had the system as a cat 1 or bigger heading for texas coast?
He also said that the Caribbean disturbance has a broad area of low pressure needs to be watch. But he said that it will move northward.
Back in a few
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 8:50 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
Hey, Drakoen! I hope you and Extreme noticed my post yesterday that declared how right the both of you were regarding 93L from Wednesday! Congrats! I prefer the crow baked, not fried, please. Thanks!
thanks moon...baked crow is always best...spicy makes it even better lol
....lol, I suppose it's good for one more, Extreme! uuuuuuuummmm, I'll have some "fries" with that, too!
--btw, if it makes it to Jerry (looking sort of puny to me), surely it won't be very much to be concerned about. In the present doesn't even look like tons of rain, but I suppose it could spin out some twisters and that'd be dangerous.
That's a loaded question in here!
if i remember comrrectly it was a wobble to the east at the last minute that spared nola and the ms coast from Ivan....
Link
Tex: it was a hell of a game. Ha ha.
Okay, then...you two honorary mets! What's the nwCarib cluster going to do?
Looks like a broad area of low pressure. Development if any would be slow to occur. The GFS develops a weak system and takes it into South texas. Very weak system. The convection is very disorganized persistance is the key.
Kinda like the rains that we get during the winter - light, small drops. Is the COC still offshore?
A question to knowledgeable bloggers:
How does/did Bastardi and accuweather get this one so wrong. Early in week had the system as a cat 1 or bigger heading for texas coast?
Houston, it's betting to an inside straight only holding two cards...I can tell you there's a chance, but there are far too many ways for the variables to stack up against you. They were figuring that this thing would be a warm core system, for one thing...
Nice line of thunderstorms in the midwest.
2. NW Caribeann Disturbance at this time has no significant circulation. The last few hours actually show a blowup near Cuba that bears watching over the next 24-48 hours. Heading in a general Northward motion.
My Last cent. #3. At coordinates 8-12 North/ 45-50 west. In this ITTZ area, there is a definite spin starting to occur and some convection flaring around this spin. Noticeable in the visible imagery and the water vapor loops. JMO, carry on Folks
I was wondering when someone would comment on that!!!
Posted By: 606 at 8:57 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
I think we need to watch the wave in the Atlantic 45W 10N. I see a spin happening.It will creep up on us.
I think we need to watch the wave in the Atlantic 45W 10N. I see a spin happening.It will creep up on us.
I believe that is associated with the ITCZ...It would need to get away from that.
lately anything thats formed that far south, 606, has either been sheared to death or has died out and then later reformed north of the islands. I would be watching what is in the caribbean and anything that forms off any troughs that exit off of the carolina coastline.
I think the shear is low enought now for somthing to form just east of the islands. Lets keep an eye on it during the weekend.
Floodman: the circulation further out in the gulf was what was being discussed. Oh... that was a little wordy.
Tex: it was a hell of a game. Ha ha.
Sorry, smmcdavid...I think drak covered it nicely...mid-level issue, and no surface component...
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