Tropical Depression Ten slowly intensifying
Tropical Depression Ten has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics today, and officially made the transition from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm at 2 pm. One could still argue that the storm is subtropical, since the satellite presentation still shows a large band of strong thunderstorms well removed from the center. However, TD 10 has developed some heavy thunderstorms right at its center, which is a key characteristic of a tropical system. This transition means that TD 10 is likely to intensify, and surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased about 10% since this morning. An Air Force aircraft measured a 37 knot surface wind at 1:05 pm EDT, and a NOAA aircraft measured 38 knots at 1:35 pm EDT. It's a judgment call on NHC's part to decide when this slow increase in winds merits an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Jerry. The storm still has subtropical characteristics, and this will keep its intensification rate far slower than Hurricane Humberto's. I think a 50 mph tropical storm is the strongest we'll see TD 10 get.
Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico were all below 25 knots (29 mph) early this afternoon. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle show a slow improvement in the organization of the low level spiral bands. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is rather limited but slowly increasing. Radar estimated precipitation over the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1) has been up to three inches.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. The counterclockwise flow of air around TD 10 is feeding moisture from this disturbance across Cuba and into South Florida today. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear at present, but the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear may fall enough on Sunday or Monday to allow some development to occur. Texas and Louisiana may get heavy rains from this system on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. SSTs beneath the low are 80 degrees F, which is right at the border where tropical storm formation can occur. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Like you said, I think those models were taking a tropical wave up over the Yucatan into the southern Gulf, but I'm not seeing that happening.
The central Gulf thing I mentioned (and don't mean to blow out of proportion) is associated with TD 10.
TampaSpin-
Maybe you're right...but CIMMS satellite page shows converegence and vorticity extending down to it. There was always (since crossing FL) and elongated N-S oriented trough.
I'll eat my crow when it dies out here in a few...
OSUWXGUY--you may not be to far off from the thinking tho...i see alot the same thing...the thing is pressures are all ready low thoughout the entire Gulf now...
Don't condescend people what he is saying; I agree with. The circulation is very very near the coast. Only a slight northward movement would result in landfall.
Well sure it would, and jogs are hard to predict. But if we are going by the NHC's track, TD10 is right on it with that WNW movement. I don't see how this is so hard to see.
Radar imagery shows the circulation right of the coast.The NHC track cannot reflect what we see now.
Drak, I see what you are saying, but I have a hard time believing this is going to make landfall in Florida...
The NHC would've said so, considering they JUST put the new advisory out.
Just look at the radar, the coc is almost on the coast of Florida right now.
It arrived 24 hours earlier than forcasted and in the wrong place.
Thanks for the link about astronomical high tides, I've been talking about them since last night.
You have it right!!
With one or two exceptions, I agree completely with your sentiments.
the little thing in the gulf looks to have circ
that little dot that is devoid of rain just off the coast near San Destin is not the COC....
look further south and you still see westward movement of the precip
I agree, been saying that awhile also look at satelite don't look at radar that's just one spin IMHO
I dunno... I am inclined to believe the radar is true, but I'm also inclined to believe the west-northwest movement is true. Dunno.
I live in Florosa and if llok at my weather station labled Parish Point you can se the wind change fron NE to NW in the past 15 minutes. This indicates the COC moving west past my station. Pretty cool I've never actually seen this before.
Drak, that is not exactly correct. That is the warmest temp they have found in a fairly broad disorganized center correct?
Last time i heard it was well defined.
Weather Report from Pensacola..Cloudy..Breezy...Not raining..this must change
Calm as can be light winds a little drizzle!
same here
.AT 430 PM CDT.EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED ABOUT 4O MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NAVARRE BEACH. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWEST TRACK.MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
COAST BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH & PENSACOLA BEACH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON & EARLY EVENING HRS
OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MOBILE & BALDWIN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.& ACROSS
STONE & GEORGE COUNTIES IN MS EARLY ON SATURDAY.BUT WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.
Yes, fun...
What? Am I a wishcaster now?
I'm going to stand outside and check out things.
Lick ur finger and hold it in the air.
DISSIPATED...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED...
ALBEIT MODESTLY. ADDITIONAL SATELLITE...BUOY...AND RECONNAISSANCE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXISTS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS SEPARATING FROM THE UPPER-LOW.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW JUDGED TO BE
TROPICAL. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.
EARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
SUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH
DROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND. IN ANY
EVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT THE LOW IS
STILL BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
aubies,
The COC is always moving. In this case looks slightly W of NW.
LOL..I know that..gues I should have worded it better...I mean did it relocate
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
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