TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1899. CJ5
10:37 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 10:36 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Another intresting note, the GFS wants to develop the 2 waves behind 96L as well.


Yea, I saw that. It really could get interesting if the current and those did play out...wow.
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1896. centex
3:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L recon on standby so I think NHC is watching closely. I think we will start to see something late this afternoon or tonight.
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1895. TheCaneWhisperer
3:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Another intresting note, the GFS wants to develop the 2 waves behind 96L as well.
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1894. StormJunkie
3:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
lol HG, it's all good, some folks around here like their Hogs (Arkansas fans). Again, welcome aboard!
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1893. CJ5
10:34 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:23 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.
i feel sorry for the HH it seen like evere week they are out there and nevere get a ch to have some time off


Don't feel sorry for them...they feel sorry for you because you don't have thier cool and exciting job...lol
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1891. CJ5
10:26 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
96L has the lead on becoming a TD/TS ans I think it is likely to move W to WNW for the next few days with a gradual WNW movement putting it around 12/48 long term. I am not convinced in a fish storm right now.

97L looks like it will take a more pronounced WNW/NW movement in the next few days. It will take advantage in the break in the High. I think a track towards DR and Turks is reasonable. I am thinking somewhere around 22/76 later in the week.

94L I am not sure about at all. It should move as the models show towards TX. I am not convinced it will become much though.

It will be interesting how this all plays out. Bottom line is everyone should pay attention. As we have seen, anything is bound to happen this year. These are my opinions right now not to be used for life and death planning.....
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1889. StormJunkie
3:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
HOG, the biggest threats seem to be 96 and 97 although 94 could be a threat and it is the most likely short term threat. That said, this time of year usually the high pressure in the Atlantic is not as strong, allowing systems to recurve out to sea. The fronts coming across the US will also play a big role in what kind of weaknesses there is in the high.
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1887. extreme236
3:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L has an anticyclone over it, which is why it has some potential to develop
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1886. Patrap
10:31 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Good , no excellent point SJ. The reposting is a waste of blog space, We have wu-mail for that.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1885. Txrainstorm
3:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Never commented before been watching blog for months but would like more comment on possible rain headed for LA/TX, flooding? Love Patrap last haha post..Thanks for all the info.
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1883. BiloxiGirl
3:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What is all that mess just south of the Mississippi coast?
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1882. benirica
3:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
models last night had an anti-cyclone forming over 96L...
shear might not matter much
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1881. Tazmanian
8:29 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
and yet no Floater on 96L may be its too far S
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1880. StormJunkie
3:29 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Why do y'all insist on reposting rude comments. Why not just address the poster and leave the rude comment to fall by the wayside?
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1877. moonlightcowboy
3:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
SAL won't be the problem for 96L. Shear in front of the system. It'll depend on how fast it develops.
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1874. benirica
3:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
mit what the heck, why call melagoo an idiot?
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1873. extreme236
3:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: mit5000 at 3:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Melagoo at 3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What's it gonna be ... 10 and 11 are least likely to be significant storms ... but what about the others

97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME

10l is dead idiot

it made landfall a few days ago.

jerry is a 40 mph sts - JUST formed


Wow sound rude to me mit...he/she only posted what the navy site says..no need to call people idiots
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1872. Tazmanian
8:26 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
nic baning there on 96L Drakoen
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1871. Weather456
11:24 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 11:22 AM AST on September 23, 2007.
456: In that image you posted toward the north of it is that SAL? I mean I don't know if SAL is still out there or not.
CAduster


Current SAL

Yeah Sal is still out there north of 96L...
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1870. moonlightcowboy
3:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
94L, if it can survive some shear is likely to form, but I also think it's going to follow the trough somewhat and the model track will become more ne than it is now...northcentral GOM.
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1868. Tazmanian
8:25 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:24 AM PDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

i feel sorry for the HH it seen like evere week they are out there and nevere get a ch to have some time off

Well they signed up for it lol..maybe they think its fun


ok
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1867. mit5000
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Melagoo at 3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What's it gonna be ... 10 and 11 are least likely to be significant storms ... but what about the others

97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME


10l is dead

it made landfall a few days ago.

jerry is a 40 mph sts - JUST formed
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1866. benirica
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
why would 97L ride up the islands? the models have it climbing in latitude quickly "", is the weakness that weak?
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1865. Patrap
10:25 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: stormwatcher247 at 10:25 AM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Sorry I'm joining late. Why is there a lack of concern for 94L


Lotsa east coast Posters,..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1864. Melagoo
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What's it gonna be ... 10 and 11 are least likely to be significant storms

I should say Jerry will impact Europe though ... :c(
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1862. stormwatcher247
3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Sorry I'm joining late. Why is there a lack of concern for 94L
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1861. moonlightcowboy
3:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Blank
48 HOUR FORECAST
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1860. Tazmanian
8:23 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
and yet no Floater on 96L may be its too far S
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1859. Drakoen
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
1858. Melagoo
3:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
What's it gonna be ... 10 and 11 are least likely to be significant storms ... but what about the others

97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME
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1857. extreme236
3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

i feel sorry for the HH it seen like evere week they are out there and nevere get a ch to have some time off


Well they signed up for it lol..maybe they think its fun
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1856. StormJunkie
3:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
If you are having trouble viewing longer large java loops, you may want to check this.

Will put it in your mail as well 456
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1854. benirica
3:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
oops i meant TD12.. when i wrote it i was thinking (ok, jerry was STD11, so write 12 but the 11 stuck)...
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1853. Patrap
10:22 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
GOM Visible Loop shows the System better.

Link
corrected,LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1852. Tazmanian
8:21 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
i feel sorry for the HH it seen like evere week they are out there and nevere get a ch to have some time off
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1851. CanePredictor
3:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Decimus...Im with you. Also many forecasters say its possible we will have a VERY busy late season and perhaps a prolonged season meaning that when the season officially ends activity will still be high.
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1850. Weather456
11:19 AM AST on September 23, 2007
Stormjunkie....could you email me the java link you gave me yesterday..i lost it. Thanks.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1849. catastropheadjuster
2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
456: In that image you posted toward the north of it is that SAL? I mean I don't know if SAL is still out there or not.
CAduster
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.