TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
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Link
In a few more hours we should get a full view of the CV wave. Maybe get a floater on it later tonight, early tomorrow
EUMETSAT SECTOR 4
I know about the EUMETSAT thats what i use lol.
The Stronger Storm trends Poleward, due to angular Momentumn
Will be watching the storms closely... and all y'alls comments on them.
Thanks!
Not in the Atlantic, but Tropical storm Vamei(a Cat 1 on the Safir-Simpson) formed at 1.4 north in the Wpac.
Vamei
WOW we have so many systems out there to watch it is almost confusing!
Going to be busy around here it for a while, it appears!
96L seems better organized at this time but iam yet to see any westerly winds but overall its on its way to a TD.
Sorry, misinterpreted what you meant by "full view." GOES only show part of it right now.
Hope you didn't take any offense.
what makes you think it will hit there?
my thoughts only did not say it definitly would
I know.Why do you think its going there? Or are you just randomly choosing?
Also..LSU has added the wunderground to it's WAVCIS page . The Link is on the Left side , "Tropical Weather" highlited in RED.
Link
You may also want to check the Quick Links for items such as models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Easy way to get the links if you periodically use different computers as well.
looking at models, not a rocket scientest
RIP 97L seriously
Reminds me of all those RIP 94L's....must have made Felix angry cause once he formed he got going...i thought people learned from the past
just randomly choosing?
looking at models, not a rocket scientest
Can I have a link to the models please?
Shawn
Some help videos for beginning to better understand the models.
View these first
And then there is one on the FSU site that is linked in my blog.
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.
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