TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Drak - is that a "Sarahacane" east of the CV wave on land?
another point I would like to add...this time of year it seems to me ..a VERY amatuer weather watcher..that storms always want to click back east in the gom...I wonder if that would play here
This would be true but the way things has been happening this year, I just don't know anymore if you know what I am saying.... LOL
Just my thought on that
Taco :0)
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 4:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.
another point I would like to add...this time of year it seems to me ..a VERY amatuer weather watcher..that storms always want to click back east in the gom...I wonder if that would play here
This would be true but the way things has been happening this year, I just don't know anymore if you know what I am saying.... LOL
Just my thought on that
Taco :0)
touche'..and for someone like me who is just tryinto learn..lol...it's been so hard for me to wrap my brain around
Where?
With all due respact I think so.... But I am having a Blonde Male momment and am not so sure....LOL
Taco :0)
we may have 95L soon if organization continues....
Where?
African Low.....look at the image Drakoen posted at 12:37 PM.
94L near Texas as a TS after re-emerging into the GOM following its Houston landfall.
TS or STS passing between Bermuda and the East Coast.
Hurricane approaching the northern Antilles.
A low pressure system coming off the African coast.
94l will also ride this same SE-NW ridge.
As long as xTD10 continues W, what ever becomes of 94l might come ashore further S down the TX coast. As it is forecast now, the Good Dr's map looks pretty good.
The global models are hinting that a cyclone will develop from the area east of the southern windward islands sometime next week. What is your take on this disturbed area
What was the final results on the Ingrid poll?
Thanks
Link
(went w/out to sea)
Name sounds familiar, my ex is from PR, Truillio Alto...I remember him or his mother one talking bout that guy when hugo hit i think, long time ago so memory is fuzzy
i think ive heard of him, not too sure, but it rings a bell. what happened to him that your bringing him up?
i just got online and ive been away a while... anything looking like it has its mind set on developing?
do i hear 95L...
:P
nothing happened to him that I know, but I was just reflecting upon how well he predicted unpredictable storms such as the ones we have seen this season. It is off topic so I won't prolong this.
i think i do hear a 95L coming along soon
is he alive? someone like that should have a blog nowadays...
it looks like the one south of cape verde islands wants to be td11
umm
were would it go if it develop
i know its to soon i just want a guess
:P
95L today......
i second that agree but will it go west the conditions are very favoble for thgis to be the next td 11
Whats your opinion about this cyclone in mediterranean sea.Possible subtropicale cyclone or just an impresiv extratropical low?
umm i think impresive extratropical low
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