TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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h23, where do you find that imagery?
Which one?456 has been posting links to the public floaters.
It looks like a pipeline north. I was trying to reconcile what I see with the models.
NHC discussion 805pm
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
for 96L
A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
corrected name
x x
|
____
oh GOD, here we go with that 10 reposts of the same thing!
Bwhahaha....you'll get at least twice more. I think its more of a competition on who can post it first than anything.
18Z GFDL for 97L.
That seems sensible to me. I am thinking a little farther south more at DR. They don't have much intensification going on though??
That GFDL run CERTAINLY is interesting!! I see you live in Jupiter - I live in P.B.G.. If 97 does that we'll be VERY busy!!
Excuse me? So I am not the first? Honestly, I only come here to read the comments by Dr. Masters. Quite frankly, the rest of you should show some compassion at times.
GFDL looks good in my book.
Interaction w/land/shear at 60 hrs as far as intensity goes.
Be sure, there have been quite a few trolls to show up here. Just place them on your ignore list and you won't have to worry about them.
any one on Showing 50 Comments ???? i would do so now if you are not
I switched about 2 hours ago because the page was taking almost 2 minutes to load. Guess we must be over-posting imagery again . . .
If u post the discussion, then notice that someone else has posted it just ahead of you, could you just delete the discussion using the "modify comment" button? Just put "already posted" or something similar to replace it. I think everybody would appreciate it.
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