Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tornado kills two in Missouri; more tornadoes on tap for today
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2007 +3
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today, and none of the reliable models are predicting tropical cyclone formation over the next five days.

At approximately 12:15 am CDT this morning, a tornado near Paris, Missouri, killed two people when it ripped apart their mobile home and tossed them 400 feet away. At least four other tornadoes hit Missouri yesterday, and two tornadoes touched down in Texas, and one each in Louisiana and Mississippi. The driver of a Petal Water & Sewer service truck was hospitalized in Mississippi after strong winds picked up his truck and tossed it across I-59.

Another severe weather outbreak is expected today in the U.S., from the Mississippi Valley northward through the Tennessee Valley and the Great Lakes. Tornado Watches have already been posted, and today's severe weather has the potential to generate a few strong, long-track tornadoes. You can follow the outbreak today on our new interactive tornado map, which will post the tornado damage reports as they are received. The new feature also allows one to plot all the historical tornado activity back to 1950 for any region in the U.S. If you take a wunderphoto of a tornadic storm or tornado damage, and click on the "tornado" type of image flag when uploading it, our software will attempt to match your photo to the storm report for that tornado. These photos will then be available when you click on a storm report on the interactive tornado page. One of the storm reports for Missouri yesterday has several wunderphotos of the thunderstorm that spawned the tornado available, thanks to wunderphotographer Paleohebrew.

Jeff Masters
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Pensacola Tornado (Mslider31)
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Pensacola Tornado
Categories: Tornado
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851. KoritheMan 4:42 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
My friend in Owensboro, Kentucky was under 5 tornado warnings today! That is just insane

That's the first time I've ever heard of such an event occuring, but I'm sure it's happened before. It's amazing that nature can do that.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 420 Comments: 15624
852. ecflawthr 4:46 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
has anyone heard reports of large hail damage anywhere or has it been mostly tornados?
Member Since: September 4, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 201
853. Skyepony (Mod) 4:53 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
1 3/4" is the biggest hail I've seen reported.
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856. HadesGodWyvern 7:20 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
===========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
===========================

Japan Meteorological Agency


TROPICAL STORM KAJIKI (T0719)
19.8ºN 142.9ºE - 35 kts 998 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
=============================
At 15:00pm JST, Tropical Depression strengthened into a tropical storm and was named "Kajiki". The cyclone has 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and is moving west-northwest at 14 knots.

Expected sustained winds 0600z 20Oct 45 knots.

Gale Warning Area
=================
60 NM southwest from the center of the cyclone
110 NM northeast from the center of the cyclone

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36909
857. hurricane24 7:45 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    


eh shouldnt kiko be a bit stronger than 35kt at this organisaton lv?


noaa get a hurricane hunter plane in there!

858. hurricane24 7:46 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    


its losing its spin by the looks of it (-=
859. HadesGodWyvern 7:52 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Dvorak Intensity continues to say T3.0 or 45 knots for Kiko (EP200715)

National Hurricane Center advisory from 0300z

"THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KTS."
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36909
860. HadesGodWyvern 8:01 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
NATIONAL HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT PLAN

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL MISSION TO FIX TS KIKO
IF IT THREATENS MEXICO NEAR 18.7N AND 104.3W AT 20/2000Z. (Saturday)

---
no plans to fly into KIKO until Saturday afternoon... =/
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36909
861. Bonedog 10:14 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Morning Folks. Hope everyone stayed safe during the overnight. I see it was just as rough as it was during the day.

Looks like I am under the gun today. I have my gear and truck ready. I will be at work till 1pm today then off to chase. According to the SPC looks like a wind / rain event. They have me under a 40% chance for wind damage and 5% for tornados and hail. Acoording to their synopsis we have a chance for bow echos and training supercells.

Prayers to all those who were effected during the last few days of this outbreak and to all those whos lives have been changed forever :(
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864. IKE 10:21 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
5.68 inches of rain since yesterday in Defuniak Springs, FL....I guess we finally got some rain.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
865. Bonedog 10:23 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
I also see as spot just offshore of Pcola that has 16" radar estimates

Link
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866. IKE 10:28 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
That seems believable....I guess be careful what you wish for applies.....severe weather...tornadoes....inches of rain. I'm ready for some sunshine!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
867. IKE 10:30 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Looks like the cold front is moving through the Mobile,AL. area now...the end of the rain is in sight.
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868. Bonedog 10:32 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
stinks though that the GA/Caolina area that desperatly needed the rain hasnt seen it. Highest I can find I 2.5 inches in extreme SW GA everywhere else is trace amounts :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
869. IKE 10:34 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Atlanta's getting rain now.....

"Observed at: Atlanta Dekalb, Georgia
Elevation: 1001 ft
[Heavy Rain]
70 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Rising)
Visibility: 1.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1100 ft
Overcast 1700 ft
(Above Ground Level)"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
870. IKE 10:40 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Dew points in NO,LA. have dropped into the 50's...that's moving east....strong north winds too.....

"Observed at: New Orleans Lakefront, Louisiana
Elevation: 7 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
76 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 56 °F
Wind: 26 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 37 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 1800 ft
Scattered Clouds 4300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070
871. Bonedog 10:40 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
watching wv loop for the northeast. Looks like a dry slot is working its way up from WV right now :( any daytime heating from the sun will send this area spiriling intot he realm of severe. Hope the morning clouds hang around to limit this. If not I wont just be chasing thunderclouds for lightning shots :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
872. watchinggulfcoast 10:56 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Good morning. Been lurking for a couple of months. I have enjoyed learning from you guys.
873. Bonedog 10:59 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
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Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
874. watchinggulfcoast 11:01 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Yes Bonedog. It is there.
875. Bonedog 11:02 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
ok well at leats my last one showed up. I lost 15 or so posts. Anyways...

seems more like August here then October 66 degree dew points air temp is 68 and that was at 6am. Yuck
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
876. Bonedog 10:50 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
look at this from my local met office.

Doesn't appear to be October 19 more like August 19th

Time
EDT (UTC) 6 AM (10)
Temperature F (C) 68.0 (20.0)
Dew Point F (C) 66.0 (18.9)
Pressure Inches (hPa) 29.82 (1009)
Wind MPH Variable 5
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877. Bonedog 10:51 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
.
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878. Bonedog 10:53 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
.
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879. Bonedog 10:54 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
.
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880. Bonedog 10:55 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
.
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881. Bonedog 10:57 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
.
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882. melwerle 11:09 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Hey Bonedog - I see you.

Raining here outside of Savannah - welcome the wet weather. I have NO idea how to shut the sprinklers off though so I look like a total dork with my lawn being watered while it's POURING outside. Duh. Severe weather from last night moving our way?

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
883. watchinggulfcoast 11:09 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Your posts are all showing up now. Must have got lost in a short time warp, Bonedog.
884. Bonedog 11:09 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
ok wow thats wierd. They all just popped up LOL

look at the post times LOL 7:02 then 6:51 LOL

oh its going to be a fun day *rolls eyes*
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885. Bonedog 11:10 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
mel Unplug the control box. That should work LOL

Thanks Gulfcoastwatcher. Is kinda wierd they posted that way.
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886. Cavin Rawlins 11:18 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Good Morning All

Storm Reports From Yesterday

One person was killed in KALKASKA MI yesteday from a possible tornado around 2340 LT

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887. gnshpdude 11:20 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
This rain is a serious drought buster. 10.33" and counting according to my weather station in Florosa, FL!
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888. Bonedog 11:20 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
wow 28 reports of tornados yesterday :(
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889. Bonedog 11:22 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    


and 16 during the start :( Thats 44 tornados in 2 days. Hopefully we dont see any more today
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890. Cavin Rawlins 11:24 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
West Coast being lashed by the remnants of Lingling.




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891. weatherg8r 11:28 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Good morning! We FINALLY got rain without thunderstorms for a few hours this morning here in Gainesville!
892. Bonedog 11:30 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Weather. I thought that storm in the PacNW was a Low that came in from Alaska.
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893. Cavin Rawlins 11:37 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
892. Bonedog 7:30 AM AST on October 19, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather. I thought that storm in the PacNW was a Low that came in from Alaska.


in part with Lingling
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894. Bonedog 11:38 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
ah gotcha. I am not up on the epac storms.
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895. Bonedog 11:44 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
I watched a great program last night on the National Geographic Channel about hurricanes.

Basically talking about cyclical trends of major hurricanes making landfall. Not total number of all systems in a season just the major cat canes making landfall in the ConUS. Wasn't good :( Also talked about scientists using hot towers to predict rapid intesification. Also had a professor from NCS that is using a new model he invented to predict a season, again not total numbers just majors and landfalls. According to the show he started in 2004 and was 97% accurate, 2005 was 98% and in 2006 was 100% accurate. BTW he makes his predicitions in April.

They also had an awsome animation of Isabel all the way from its thunderstorm origins in the bay of bengal, across all of africa, the atalantic. Amazing to watch it go from nothing to something.

Just thought I would share with you all. If you get a chance to see it again, the show was titled Hyper Cane's.

Oh and on a darker note from the show, the Northeast is coming into an active landfall period according to ancient climotology.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
896. GotSand 11:48 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Its been raining here in Navarre Beach for over 24 hours. Also appears the Wind Shear in the Carrib and GOM has been reduced significantly.
897. GotSand 11:58 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Looks like an easy 12 inches of rain between Pensacola and Navarre.
898. Cavin Rawlins 11:58 AM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Last night i identified and tracked about 7 supercells but there was more.

This was one of the most potent ones...BBL



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899. Bonedog 12:07 PM GMT on October 19, 2007    
slow blog this morning. Guess everyone is oversleeping LOL :)
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900. DrMickey 12:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2007    
Or had a bad night stormwatching...
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901. Bonedog 12:12 PM GMT on October 19, 2007    
thats true to Mickey
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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