Disturbance 90L brings heavy rain to Puerto Rico; major pollution in California
A surface low pressure system (90L) just east of Puerto Rico is moving to the west at 5-10 mph. This low is entangled with an upper-level low pressure system that is bringing about 30 knots of wind shear, so no development is likely today. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain hitting the islands and surrounding waters, but these bands are not well-organized. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the northeast of the low's center of circulation, and high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 90L.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 90L. Image credit: NOAA.
The surface low is expected to separate from the upper level low tonight and move west-southwest or southwest across Puerto Rico, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flooding to the island. Recent rains have left large areas of interior and western Puerto Rico at or near saturation, and mudslides were reported yesterday in Utuado. Flooding problems and mudslides are likely across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Friday and Saturday, and this is shaping up to be the most significant rain event of the fall wet season thus far for Puerto Rico.
On Friday and Saturday, 90L will move westward along or just south of Hispaniola, bringing heavy rain, flash flooding, and possible mudslides to that island. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots by Friday night, which may allow some slow development of the disturbance if the center remains over water. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. By Saturday, the storm will near Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict a tropical depression will form by Sunday. Steering currents grow weak on Monday, and the storm could stall out for many days in the Western Caribbean, in an area of low wind shear and high heat content waters. This may allow the system to intensify into a hurricane. The eventual fate of this system is highly uncertain, since steering currents will be so weak. Those of you planning to travel to the Western Caribbean next week should keep a close watch on this system. NHC has not scheduled any flights into 90L yet.
It is possible that wind shear and passage over the islands will sufficiently disrupt this disturbance so that it does not develop. However, surface pressures have fallen 2-3 mb over most of the Western Caribbean the past two days, and there is a good chance that a new area of disturbed weather will develop. One such disturbance formed yesterday south of Haiti, but has since dissipated. Unsettled rainy weather can be expected to affect much of the Western Caribbean over the coming week.
California's fires
Surface maps show that the high pressure system that brought this week's strong Santa Ana winds to Southern California has now moved east and is over Colorado. The Santa Ana winds have ceased over California, and only light winds with afternoon sea breezes are expected today and for the next seven days. No precipitation is expected for at least the next week. The combination of light winds and lack of rain will make for a serious air pollution hazard in the region, until the fires are extinguished. There is still plenty of smoke over the ocean waters (Figure 2) that will get blown back over land by afternoon sea breezes over the next week.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image at 1:45 pm PDT Wednesday October 24, showing a huge area of smoke over the Pacific Ocean. Some of this smoke is being blown northward (top of image), and is expected to move over northern California and northern Nevada over next two days. This northward-moving smoke is being lifted by the flow around an approaching low pressure system, and is not expected to affect air quality near the surface. However, the smoke just offshore San Diego and Los Angeles will remain near the surface, and some of it will be pushed back over land by afternoon sea breezes. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
with all the smoke in the air the moon last night was looking like holloween.
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index
I prefer mine free range
Not a chance Shen!!
This bunch here grows 'em to keep up with demand!! I have a VERY LARGE aviary on my premesis just to keep up w/ my own personal consumption - lol!!
I'm just waiting for the official WunderCrow Cookbook - :o)
I'm working on the Crow Cookbook as we speak...I'm currently on the recipe for Crow Tartar...by the way, did you know that a nice Zinfandel goes well with crow?
Free range is tasty - a bit more gamey - but with my large demand I'd have to spend all my time hunting the wily buggers, leaves no time for blogging!!
Zinfindel is excellent w/most anything - in large enough quantities - lol!!
Did anyone take names for Floodmans cookbook......lol
Jerry's Jammin' Crow Flambe (Cover art by Peter Max)
Lesser Antilles radar
Strange..the sky is turning yellow/orange
Rain in sight!
Lesser Antilles radar
keep your powder dry, CaribBoy
A Friend of the Dark Bird is a Friend of Mine
They do tend to flock together.....lol
19.0N
64.2W.....
It's moved WSW since the earlier coordinates.
Dan
Orient Bay
St Martin
Also, while low level clouds were coming from the southwest earlier today, they are now coming from a more easterly direction...what does that mean?
I see you are a neighbour - if you click on my name you will see I have quite a few shots of St Barths taken from my balcony which overlooks Orient Bay in St Martin.
Still raining here by the way - guess its only a matter of time before you get your share.
Dan
Overcast, with fast moving low clouds, thunder and ligthnings, but still no rain here in St Barths.
Also, while low level clouds were coming from the southwest earlier today, they are now coming from a more easterly direction...what does that mean?
It sounds like it's moved to your west.
Ok and Then from that point on forth, watch out right drakoen???
watch it regardless.
There was a post a couple of days ago showing an ice storm first wk of Nov for the K.C. area, any more info on this situation?
oooo, i'm from there. that's one BIG reason why i'm now here!
Forecast track will be very interesting to watch. I have a feeling that South Florida needs to watch this system. Take that statement for what its worth.
Another interesting thing to note is the activity in the NW Caribbean. I have been watching this all day and I think we may have a separate entity develop in this area sometime this weekend. There is obvious rotation although it is mainly in the mid to upper levels.
Comments.
Good evening CaribBoy..
I see you are a neighbour - if you click on my name you will see I have quite a few shots of St Barths taken from my balcony which overlooks Orient Bay in St Martin.
Still raining here by the way - guess its only a matter of time before you get your share.
Dan
Good evening Dan!
Beautiful pics from your balcony ;)
And yes, you were right, the rain has just started and it is becoming HEAVY here in St Barths!!
wind shear is too strong overe 90L
Good thing you don't work for the NHC Taz! We'd all be screwed.
I would wait to TD then see. They will have a better handle. Also, I live in WestPalm/LW. But MOST defentialy WATCH WATCH WATCH!!! also make sure u have everything NOW so it wont be a rush when it comes....IF it comes. No one knows yet
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index