California fires and global warming; 90L lashes Puerto Rico
A surface low pressure system (90L) moved over Puerto Rico this morning, and is now centered just west of the island. The surface low is entangled with an upper-level low pressure system that is bringing about 30 knots of wind shear, so no development is likely today. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows isolated bands of heavy rain that are not well-organized. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the east of the low's center of circulation, and the high wind shear is keeping this thunderstorm activity disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large, vigorous circulation. Top winds were about 30 mph to the north of the center, and 90L is close to tropical depression status.
Figure 1. Latest satellite rainfall estimate of 90L.
The surface low is separating from the upper level low today, and will move west-southwest at about 10 mph. This will bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico. Heavy rains of 2-4 inches in just two hours hit the Virgin Islands this morning (Figure 1), prompting flash flood warnings there. Heavy rains also hit many of the islands of the northern Lesser Antilles. Rain amounts as high as 3-5 inches are expected today over eastern Puerto Rico. Several mudslides have already been reported on the island.
The action shifts to the Dominican Republic on Saturday and Haiti on Sunday, as 90L tracks just south of the island of Hispaniola. These nations can expect rains of 3-6 inches, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. It is possible 90L could intensify into a tropical depression on Sunday, as wind shear will slowly fall to 20 knots. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly Sunday afternoon, if necessary. On Sunday, 90L will be approaching Jamaica, and the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that wind shear will drop to 10-20 knots. These models develop 90L into at least a strong tropical storm as it moves slowly into the Western Caribbean. The GFS model keeps wind shear 20-30 knots through the period, and does not develop 90L. The HWRF model also does not develop 90L. The GFDL is not keen on developing the system either, but does suggest that a weak tropical storm may form a week from now. I believe the most reasonable solution is the NOGAPS and ECMWF solution, and 90L will intensify into hurricane in the Western Caribbean late next week. The long-term path of such a storm is very uncertain, with the NOGAPS and ECMWF suggesting a track north into the Gulf of Mexico to threaten the U.S., and the GFDL predicting 90L will get trapped in the Western Caribbean and perform a counter-clockwise loop. If you have travel plans that take you to Jamaica or the Cayman Islands Sunday through Tuesday, or Cancun/Cozumel/Western Cuba Tuesday through Saturday next week, be prepared for the possibility of disruptions.
California's smoke
The worst of the air pollution hazard from California's fires has now passed. The smoke has thinned some, as seen on satellite images (Figure 2). The smoke made it yesterday to Fresno, in California's Central Valley, and is moving northward into Nevada and northwest Arizona today. Most of this smoke is aloft at altitudes of about 15,000 feet, but some mixing down to the surface has occurred, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system. Increases in particulate matter pollution due to smoke are expected to affect Las Vegas this weekend (Figure 1). However, the smoke will be dilute enough to keep pollution levels in the Moderate range--below the federal air quality standard.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image at 11:15 am PDT Thursday October 25, showing thinning smoke over the Pacific Ocean and much of California. Low stratus clouds are visible over the ocean, and these clouds have moved ashore into Los Angeles and San Diego this morning, triggering Dense Fog Advisories. Image credit: NASA and EPA.
Were the California fires worsened by global warming?
Dr. Ricky Rood points out in his latest wunderblog that the California fires were mostly a land-use and land-management issue. In a previous blog, he had this to say about the link between climate change and Western U.S. fires:
We do know that drought and floods, heat waves and cold snaps are all part of nature. Like the problem of urban heat waves, we have an event that already exists, and there should be a change associated with global warming. I have already mentioned that some studies have attributed the pinyon pine die off in the U.S. Southwest to the fact that the temperature in the recent drought years is higher than in previous droughts. Therefore, ground water is reduced; there is more stress on the plants. (And perhaps it is really the warmer nighttime temperatures that matter?)
There have also been papers which make a compelling argument that wild fires in the western U.S. are increasing in intensity and duration. In the paper of Westerling et al. (Science, 2006), the conclusion is drawn that this is directly related to snow melt occurring earlier in the year, a hotter and drier forest, and hence, a longer burning season. Plus they isolate the impact to be at mid-elevations in the Rockies, and hence, relatively free of land-use changes. While many newspapers reported that this work showed an increase of wild fires due to climate change, I quote directly from their paper: "Whether the changes observed in western hydroclimate and wildfire are the result of greenhouse gas-induced global warming or only an unusual natural fluctuation is beyond the scope of this work".
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Pronounced; A-Bear, or A-Bare sil vous plait....
I love Widespread Panic!!!
Invest? Area of Interest to watch/Investigate
If so and the National Huricane Centre has two area.. why is there only one here 90L
?
Isn't the coc of 90L a bit elongated?
Now you've done it! You've even shown them!Widespread panic and carnage on a biblical scale will now ensue
I love Widespread Panic!!!
They're opening for Carnage on a Biblical Scale
TO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLES/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE
TROUGH PATTERN IS TO PERSIST DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE...WITH SOME
OF THE MODELS STILL SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM
FORMING ALONG THIS AXIS. THEY...HOWEVER...DIVERGE ON THE BEST AREA
FOR GENESIS... WITH SOME SHOWING STORM FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN (NORTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA) WHILE OTHERS FAVOR THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES...AS
A TOOL FOR EVALUATING MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
Ivan's Cat and Felix...co-mascots! What do you suppose would happen if we all posted Felix simultaneously?
the world as we know it would cease to exist
Awesome, they'll steal the show, I'm sure! LOL
Flood, I doubt that admin would do anything, you rabble-rouser!
Isn't the coc of 90L a bit elongated?
Hey, I resemble that remark! Who better to rouse rabble than me?
The COC is a little elongated, but it seems lees so in the last couple of hours than earlier this morning; trying to tighten up, despite the vagaries of 30knt shear...
thanks jp...I agree...but others did not and flagged Felix's furry butt...so, he will stay in my blog...
wow,my statement to those people are GET A LIFE!!!!!
"rabble, rabble, rabble, rabble..."
263. NRAamy 7:07 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
thanks jp...I agree...but others did not and flagged Felix's furry butt...so, he will stay in my blog...
wow,my statement to those people are GET A LIFE!!!!!
The officious and small minded are everywhere, brother
thanks jp...I agree...but others did not and flagged Felix's furry butt...so, he will stay in my blog...
maybe they confused him with Fritz! LOL
269. NEwxguy 2:09 PM CDT on October 26, 2007
263. NRAamy 7:07 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
thanks jp...I agree...but others did not and flagged Felix's furry butt...so, he will stay in my blog...
wow,my statement to those people are GET A LIFE!!!!!
The officious and small minded are everywhere, brother
guess so
They're opening for Carnage on a Biblical Scale
Awesome, they'll steal the show, I'm sure! LOL
They always do, but their sets are short...the hall almost always combusts
Jesus..a Numbers fan..LOL
NOGAPS model, I hate to say, does seem reasonable since a cold front would have the ability to force a storm to make a turn that sharp.
For all who live in South Florida, I would keep a close eye on it since we know what climatology tells us.
thank you...I mean it...
actually as we're talking about Felix right now,we're probably being flagged for being off topic
I just snorted so loud!!!
:)
284. NEwxguy 12:15 PM PDT on October 26, 2007
actually as we're talking about Felix right now,we're probably being flagged for being off topic
I just snorted so loud!!!
lol,I don't think snorting is aloud her either
Hey, I resemble that remark! Who better to rouse rabble than me?
"rabble, rabble, rabble, rabble..."
Ahhh...another country heard from...LOL
There sure are a bunch of us in here today LOL
Click on Boxed areas for specific run.
Link
271. LakeShadow 2:10 PM CDT on October 26, 2007
Hey, I resemble that remark! Who better to rouse rabble than me?
"rabble, rabble, rabble, rabble..."
Ahhh...another country heard from...LOL
There sure are a bunch of us in here today LOL
It's friday
Did someone say snort?
could swear I just saw your eyes change color
292. Floodman 7:21 PM GMT on October 26, 2007
Did someone say snort?
could swear I just saw your eyes change color
I know dude...I got to watch that
...FL...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THAT A TROPICAL SYS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AROUND MON. THIS SYS WILL BEGIN DRIFTING NW...THEN
GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NE DAYS 6-7 AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES. PERIODS OF HEAVY PCPN LIKELY OVER
THE STATE ALONG/N OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE E COAST AND BACK OVER THE KEYS.
NE was you playing Golf in Tampa if so where at.
No,I'm actually going south to my sisters in osprey.
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