Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Mexico's Katrina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.

Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Flood

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201. Bonedog 8:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
sorry lake :( JP thats awsome. I always wanted to sit down and write something. Dont have the time or patience to do it. Hope the series works out for you. Could be the next harry potter LOL Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

203. Floodman 8:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
StormW, how are you? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

205. LakeShadow 8:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
local mets said the snow would stay towards the southtowns and away from the lake shore...oiy! Everyone in the metro b-lo area is swearing at the mets... Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134

206. Bonedog 8:35 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
wow JP THAT actually would be an awsome series. Run with it :) just give me a little squib in the back as an insperational tool LOL Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

207. Floodman 8:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
202. jphurricane2006 2:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007 lol floodman, nah its going to be a murder mystery, I already know where I am going with this one Outstanding...I don't think I could write a murder mystery, though...the best I've done is manuals for software I've written and the occasional poetry Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

208. Bonedog 8:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I bet Lake. The radar looks like you all are getting a direct hit with no forseeable change. That Low is being persistant in NOT moving Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

209. Floodman 8:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
208. Bonedog 2:36 PM CST on November 06, 2007 I bet Lake. The radar looks like you all are getting a direct hit with no forseeable change. That Low is being persistant in NOT moving Lucky, Lake! Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

210. LakeShadow 8:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
bbl unexpected company. Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134

213. Floodman 8:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Not bad at all, StormW...actually getting some work done,. despite my frequent posts here...how goes the DIY work? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

214. Bonedog 8:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL I just found this I think its hilarious especially for some folks here TOP 10 CHRISTMAS GIFTS FOR METEOROLOGISTS 10. Doppler-on-Wheels (w/ trailer hitch). 9. Autographed pictures of Jim Cantore, Dave Schwartz and Kristina Abernathy. 8. One of them "robot dogs". 7. Inflatable Skew-T / log P. 6. Lots and lots of fudge!! 5. Videotape of Willard Scott being pummeled by grapefruit-sized hail. 4. Super Forecaster-O-Matic, by Ronco. 3. Nerf baseball bat used on people who say, "why don't you just look out the window?" 2. Front row tickets for John Hope's one-man musical tribute to Dr. Ted Fujita. 1. A life. Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

217. Bonedog 8:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
LOL 10 and 7 for me :) Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

219. Floodman 8:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
214. Bonedog 2:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007 LOL I just found this I think its hilarious especially for some folks here TOP 10 CHRISTMAS GIFTS FOR METEOROLOGISTS 10. Doppler-on-Wheels (w/ trailer hitch). 9. Autographed pictures of Jim Cantore, Dave Schwartz and Kristina Abernathy. 8. One of them "robot dogs". 7. Inflatable Skew-T / log P. 6. Lots and lots of fudge!! 5. Videotape of Willard Scott being pummeled by grapefruit-sized hail. 4. Super Forecaster-O-Matic, by Ronco. 3. Nerf baseball bat used on people who say, "why don't you just look out the window?" 2. Front row tickets for John Hope's one-man musical tribute to Dr. Ted Fujita. 1. A life. Please note the bolded lines...anything pummeling Willard Scott is suitable, but the grapefruit sized hail is a VERY nice touch, and what can I say about a John Hope oneman musical tribute to Fujita? what else need be said? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

224. Cavin Rawlins 8:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
218. Bonedog 4:43 PM AST on November 06, 2007 LOL...very funny stuff Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

225. IKE 8:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Sexual weather terms....I guess it is a slow day in the tropics! LOL. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

226. Floodman 8:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I'm with StormW...I was trying to think of some smarta@@ comment, but anything I came up with made me sound like a perv... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

228. Bonedog 8:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
hey its weather related and humorous. got to love a slow day on the blog :) here is the link with many many many funny things all weather related Link Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

229. Floodman 8:49 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Rubbing temples, then eyes No, I just can't do anything with post #218... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

231. Bonedog 8:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
whats funny is these lists and jokes are from a proffesional on air met Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

232. Floodman 8:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
230. jphurricane2006 2:50 PM CST on November 06, 2007 really floodman? you would be rubbing your temples? you sure you picked the right part? LOL maybe "temples" is a euphamism for something LOL anyway, be back in a bit Very nice...there you have it; my friend, jphurricane... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

233. Bonedog 8:53 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Meteorologist Jeff Haby presents: A meteorologist's weekly lunch and dinner specials Monday lunch: Stormdog with thunderfries Monday dinner: Rice with humid veggies and heat wave steak all covered in warm advection sauce Tuesday lunch: Typhoon pizza (center removed) Tuesday dinner: Sea breeze seafood with hush sundogs Wednesday lunch: Tornado spaghetti with hot hail balls Wednesday dinner: Warm core veal topped with thunderstruck cheese and a high CAPE sun baked potato Thursday lunch: Meteorological goulash Thursday dinner: Ribeye supercell with F5 sauce and stormy beans, blizzard ice cream Friday lunch: Hurricane burger (center removed) with squall rings Friday dinner: Cloud seeded chicken with tornado tots Saturday lunch: Flash flood soup Saturday dinner: High Theta-E turkey, precipitation peas and vorticity potatoes Sunday lunch: Sleet salad with cloud to ground crackers Sunday dinner: Heat wave enchiladas with lightning struck twice beans and sweltering rice Drink choices: Condensation Coke Mountain Dew Parcel Pepsi Downdraft Water Dr. Convection Dr. Instability Hurricane Punch Twister Tea Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

234. IKE 8:55 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Bonedog 2:52 PM CST on November 06, 2007 whats funny is these lists and jokes are from a proffesional on air met Must to have been a s-l-o-w weather period for him. Speaking of weather...check out the dry air in Birmingham... "Observed at: Birmingham, Alabama Elevation: 643 ft [Clear] 58 °F Clear Humidity: 21% Dew Point: 18 °F Wind: 17 mph from the NW Wind Gust: 22 mph Pressure: 30.19 in (Steady) Visibility: 10.0 miles UV: 3 out of 16 Clouds: Clear - (Above Ground Level)"..... They have a freeze watch for tonight. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

235. HurricaneGeek 8:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Where can I find the model Plots for 92L? WU does not have it up. thanks. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

236. Bonedog 8:57 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
geek Link Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

237. Cavin Rawlins 9:02 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
92L Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

238. HurricaneGeek 9:02 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
ok thanks Bone Dog. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

239. HurricaneGeek 9:03 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
how much of a chance does it have of Olga. Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

240. NEwxguy 9:06 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
afternoon,all Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

241. Bonedog 9:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
OMG read this story. Simply amazing that these folks lived to tell about it note: this is NOT how to storm chase Link Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

242. Cavin Rawlins 9:09 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
i give it a 20% chance of becoming Olga within 24 hrs Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

243. Cavin Rawlins 9:13 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
92L as the sun sets Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

244. Bonedog 9:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I think these three guys may be those chaser guys with the TIV. Isnt the background of them a professor and two students? Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

245. Bonedog 9:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

246. Bonedog 9:16 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
on air flub.... This had most of the state of Michigan laughing for 2 days and a very embarrassed female news anchor who will, in the future, likely think before she speaks. What happens when you predict snow but don't get any... a true story... We had a female news anchor, who the day after it was supposed to have snowed and didn't, turned to the weatherman and asked: "So Bob, where's that 8 inches you promised me last night?" Not only did HE have to leave the set, but half the crew did also! They were laughing so hard! Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

247. Bonedog 9:20 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
flub.,... Worked with a guy that was giving a very detailed (probably too detailed for television) description of some severe weather moving through the area. He was getting pretty deep discussing "rear flank development" when the building took a lightning hit. The charge ran through the mic cable which was running up his leg (no wireless mics) and gave him a shock. He gave a short little jump and without missing a beat said, "Whoa, I think I just had a little rear flank development!" I never laughed so hard in my life!!!! Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418

248. Cavin Rawlins 9:24 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
VALENTINES NWS FORECAST DISCUSSION CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED 1155 PM CST THU FEB 12 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE UNITED STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CLOUDS, HIGH WINDS AND DOWN BURSTS EXISTS IF PERSONS ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. SHOULD ANY MALE FORGET THAT TODAY IS VALENTINES DAY A DEEP LOW COULD FORM OVER THE AFFECTED PERSONS HEAD. HIGH WINDS COULD COME FROM THE AFFECTED PERSONS SPOUSE OR SPOUSE TO BE AND MAY CAUSE SEVERE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ANYONE WITHIN 1 MILE. SHOULD YOU OBSERVE A ONCOMING STORM, SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. LOCAL BARS WILL BE EXTENDING HAPPY HOURS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS LIFE THREATENING EVENT. PERSONS EXPERIENCING ANY RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS OR HEAVY BLEEDING SHOULD DIAL 911. PLEASE REFER TO PUBLIC AND COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

249. Cavin Rawlins 9:27 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Flash Flood Problem Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

250. MisterPerfect 9:28 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Weather456, is that New Orleans? Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470

251. Cavin Rawlins 9:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
250. MisterPerfect 5:28 PM AST on November 06, 2007 Hide this comment. Weather456, is that New Orleans? no....dont where it is Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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