Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Mexico's Katrina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007

While Hurricane Noel's deadly rampage through the Caribbean was making headlines last week, Mexico experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. Rescue crews are still at work plucking thousands of stranded residents off of rooftops in the state of Tabasco. Over 80% of Tabasco was underwater, and flood waters reached up to residents' rooftops in the capital city of Villahermosa. Up to 900,000 people are homeless in the disaster, which Mexicans are calling their Hurricane Katrina. The number of people dead or missing now stands at 26, due to a new mudslide yesterday that overwhelmed a small village near Villahermosa.

The floods were spawned by heavy rains that fell from a cold front that stalled over the Gulf of Mexico between October 28 and November 1. Satellite estimates of the rainfall show that no more than 7 inches of rain fell over the region during the period, which seems like too little rain to cause the massive flooding observed. It is possible these satellite estimates are flawed. The official rain gauge in Villahermosa reported 2, 81, 7, 0, and 2 inches of rain during the days October 28-November 1, respectively. Presumably, the 81 inches of rain reported October 29 is due to floodwaters inundating the rain gauge. Villahermosa averages 13 inches of rain in a typical October. No new rains have fallen since November 1, and the flood waters are gradually receding.

Figure 1. Thick clouds cover Mexico's Tobasco state on October 29, 2007, due a cold front that stalled over the region. The area received up to 7 inches of rain over a 5-day period. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 92L in far eastern Atlantic not a threat
A non-tropical "cut-off" low pressure system near 31N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands, is showing signs of becoming more tropical. This system was designated "92L" by NHC this morning. Phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State University show that 92L started off as a classic extratropical storm that was asymmetrical with a cold core, but the storm has gotten more symmetrical and the core has warmed. Satellite loops show only limited thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation at present, though. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 24° C under 92L, and are considerably cooler than the 26.5° usually needed to get a tropical cyclone going. Wind shear is 30-40 knots, and is expected to stay above 30 knots for the next two days. These factors should keep the storm from developing. The system is expected to turn northeast and move through the Azores Islands Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Flood

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251. Cavin Rawlins 9:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
250. MisterPerfect 5:28 PM AST on November 06, 2007 Hide this comment. Weather456, is that New Orleans? no....dont where it is Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

252. MisterPerfect 9:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Its in Europe...look atthose license plates Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 69 Comments: 19470

253. IKE 9:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
There driving on the opposite side of the road in that picture 456...you can see the vehicles at the top of the hill. I don't think it's in the USA. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

254. JUSTCOASTING 9:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Hey STORM W do you see anything in the tropics this week are we alomst done with the season you think ? Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666

255. HurricaneGeek 9:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
92L still moving in what direction? Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

256. NEwxguy 9:48 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069

257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007 nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

259. NEwxguy 9:56 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007 256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007 nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run it must have been your email Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069

260. Floodman 10:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
259. NEwxguy 3:56 PM CST on November 06, 2007 257. Floodman 9:52 PM GMT on November 06, 2007 256. NEwxguy 3:48 PM CST on November 06, 2007 nice to see they got the fsu model site up to date Yep...couple of hours ago...the MM5 hasn't been run it must have been your email Niiice...another of my friends chimes in...LMAO Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

261. Bobbyweather 10:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
255. HurricaneGeek 4:44 PM EST on November 06, 2007 92L still moving in what direction? It is moving either SW or SSW. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 88 Comments: 2470

262. Bobbyweather 10:14 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 88 Comments: 2470

263. Floodman 10:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
262. Bobbyweather 4:14 PM CST on November 06, 2007 92L will move SE, then NE, then N, then SE again. That's strange...a couple of the models have it merging with the low NW of it in 72 hours or so... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

264. JUSTCOASTING 10:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Thanks again STORMW Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666

265. Floodman 10:35 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Ooops, my bad...thats 108 hours Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

266. zoomiami 10:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
456 - the shark says it all! Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

268. zoomiami 10:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
my daughter is so happy about snow showers this weekend - moved from miami to maine this summer. Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

269. Floodman 10:50 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Ouch, vortfix...it's bad; I had no idea how bad until I did a little research. We expect that sort of thing here in Texas; hell, it's a wet year here with 30 inches of rain for the year...but Lake O? It boggles the mind Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

270. Floodman 10:51 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
zoo I wish I was there too...it's one of the things I miss most about the mid west...4 years in Louisiana with no winter to speak of... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

271. franck 11:02 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad. Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

272. Floodman 11:07 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
271. franck 5:02 PM CST on November 06, 2007 The southern tier of states is getting extremely heavy, uncomfortable to live in. It's okay for retirees who sit inside in the air conditioning all day, but the outside environment is oppressive 9-10 months of the year. Supposedly, surface humidity rises proportionately more than temperature. Anyway, it's bad. Tell me about it; we just moved to DFW in June, with lower humidities despite the higher temps...it's far superior to SE Louisiana... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

273. tiggeriffic 11:21 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
BOING, BOUNCE! What up all? Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

274. Floodman 11:22 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Hey, Tig...boring in here...how's your day going? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

275. tiggeriffic 11:25 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Long day...but it is almost over...btw flood, waited at the airport for ya with a bowl of chili and the cornbread but you never showed up! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

276. Floodman 11:26 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Sorry...a rain check? I wonder if they'll let me board with a smoked brisket...hmmm Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

277. tiggeriffic 11:28 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
lol, not sure, know ya cant if you are traveling to or from Europe...NO PERISHIBLES! Found that out real quick...can't even mail em! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

278. Floodman 11:30 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
They take a dim view of that sort of thing, though my mom mails me tinned meats and such pretty regularly fomr Roth, Gremany... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

279. pottery2 11:31 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Hello, Tigger and Flood. What news ? Alls quiet here, on the Eastern front. Hoping for some more rain........

280. tiggeriffic 11:32 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package? Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

281. tiggeriffic 11:33 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
hey pottery...just yacking for a few till the hubby gets home...then back on later when he and the little one goes to bed. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

282. Floodman 11:34 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
As far as weather goes, just some snow in the NE CONUS and 92L, which is turning to the NE Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

283. Floodman 11:34 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
280. tiggeriffic 5:32 PM CST on November 06, 2007 I think the diff is that it is hermetically sealed...same time tho...does she actually claim what is in the package? Nope, just the weight...2 or 3 kilos, normally Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

284. eaglesrock 11:35 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!!

285. jaxons 11:35 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Guess these blogs keep going but for what use - I am convinced this season is over - I assume you experts need something to blog about to keep your sanity - good luck until next year and I wish each of you a Happy Turkey Day and Christmas - until next year , thank the Lord .

286. tiggeriffic 11:35 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Yeah, sent son a package yesterday...hope he gets it by the weekend, supposed to snow in RI Friday and Saturday Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

287. Floodman 11:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Well, folks, as the guy in the cartoon says: Drizzle, drazzle druzzle Drome Time for this one to go home BBL Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

288. Floodman 11:36 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
284. eaglesrock 5:35 PM CST on November 06, 2007 The 18z GFS still shows snow for me!!!! Where you at, eaglesrock? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

289. tiggeriffic 11:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
later flood, see ya later Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

290. Floodman 11:37 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
jaxons, we talk about all kinds of weather, including the WPac tropical season... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

291. Floodman 11:38 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
You bet, Tig... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

292. pottery2 11:40 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??" Made me wonder, myself. LOL

293. Floodman 11:41 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
292. pottery2 5:40 PM CST on November 06, 2007 My 6 yr. old grandson just came through to sey goodnight ( it's 7;30, he's up late ) Took a look at the computer screen, and said " Pappy, why are you looking at clowns and guys with traffic-light eyes??" Made me wonder, myself. LOL LOL...out of the mouths of babes...out for real this time Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

294. tiggeriffic 11:41 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
no clown, just tigger! LOL, my 3 yr old always wants to know what the puter is saying to me.... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

295. tiggeriffic 11:42 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
where you at pottery???? Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

296. Muffelchen 11:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
Weather456, is that New Orleans? no....dont where it is Definately in the UK. Only two countries in Europe drive on the left: the UK and Ireland. These are UK plates (yellow on the trunk). Can't tell exactly where it is but by the vegetation it is on the West coast somewhere. I would suggest Wales (see my Avatar for flag) or SW England, maybe Devon or Cornwall. Just caught up now I am off to bed: nearly midnight on this side of the pond! Will check in on the progress (if any) on 92L in the morning. Night all :-() Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

297. tiggeriffic 11:44 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

298. Muffelchen 11:46 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
nite Muffel, good sleep to ya Night night, don't let the bed bugs bite... Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

299. tiggeriffic 11:47 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
lol, will have to tell ya some time bout my oldest spending part of his summer in the UK last year! Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

300. tiggeriffic 11:51 PM GMT on November 06, 2007
ok, im out for a bit, bbl Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

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