Antarctic iceberg sinks cruise ship
The November 2007 sinking of the cruise ship MS Explorer after it hit an iceberg in Antarctic waters is a reminder that the Antarctic is a dangerous place to sail. Ever since British explorer Ernest Shackleton's ship Endurance met its end when it become trapped and crushed in pack ice near Antarctica, the Antarctic waters have been a notoriously dangerous place for boats. For those of you unfamiliar with the story of Shackleton's ill-fated expedition, I highly recommend a reading of The Endurance: Shackleton's Legendary Antarctic Expedition. The book details the most mind-blowing tale of survival and courage I have ever read. Shackleton's phenomenal leadership skills saved the lives of all of his men. Shackleton refused to sleep for over 30 consecutive days while leading his men in an arduous months-long trek over the treacherous Antarctic sea ice. His voyage to find help using an open boat in winter on the storm-tossed Scotia Sea may rank as the greatest navigation feat of all time.
Figure 1. Antarctic sea ice (purple colors) at the time the MS Explorer hit an iceberg and sank. Summer is approaching in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to melting and break up of the sea ice and plenty of icebergs. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.
Why talk about Antarctic sea ice?
You hear a lot of talk about Arctic sea ice, but not about Antarctic sea ice. That's because Antarctic sea ice is relatively unimportant to the Earth's climate. Antarctica is a huge continent that rises thousands of feet above the ocean. It holds about 90% of the world's fresh water, locked up in its massive ice cap. The presence of such a titanic block of ice at the bottom of the world completely dominates the weather and climate of the region, and the year-to-year fluctuations of sea ice don't have a lot of impact on temperatures there.
The other reason to ignore Antarctic sea ice is that it hasn't changed much over the historical record. A look at the sea ice coverage since 1978 (Figure 2) shows very little change. Climate skeptics have pointed out that Antarctic sea ice has been near its maximum area the past few winters. However, this is not considered statistically significant, and there is no overall trend apparent in the data.
However, Antarctic sea ice may be important because of its ability to insulate and buttress glaciers and semi-permanent ice shelves along the coast. Recent melting of sea ice due to warming temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula allowed warming ocean waters to penetrate close to shore, triggering the collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002. This Rhode Island-sized chunk of ice had been around thousands of years, and disintegrated in just three days. Any decline of Antarctic sea ice in coming decades might cause a speedier retreat of the continent's glaciers and ice shelves.
Figure 2. Antarctic sea ice area as observed via satellite since 1978. The maximum area in winter has ranged between 14-16 million square kilometers, about the same amount of ocean that the Arctic ice covers in winter. However, the Antarctic sea ice almost entirely melts away in summer, something the Arctic sea ice does not do (yet). Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.
Antarctic cooling
What is significant is the fact that most of Antarctica cooled in recent decades (Figure 3). For example, the surface temperature at the South Pole cooled 0.05° C between 1980 and 1999 (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). However, the majority of Antarctica has shown no statistically significant warming over the past 50 years (Turner et al., 2005)--the cooling has just been over the past 25-30 years. In the period 2004-2007, much of the Antarctic warmed (Figure 4). Why did Antarctica cool between 1982 and 2004 if there was global warming going on?
Well, the globe, on average, has warmed about 1.1° F (0.65° C) in the 50 years ending in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). Given that there is a lot of natural variability in the climate, it should be expected that some areas of the globe would not see warming, given the relatively modest magnitude of global warming thus far.
Figure 3. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1982 and 2004. Much of Antarctica cooled during this period. Image credit: IPCC The Physical Science Basis, Figure 3.32.
Figure 4. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1981 and 2007. Note that the cooling trend observed from 1982-2004 has reversed, thanks to warming in the past few years. Image credit: NASA
In addition, the weather of the Antarctic is dominated by a strong band of westerly winds that blow around the pole. This circumpolar vortex extends from the surface to the stratosphere, and can attain very high wind speeds, thanks to the absence of large land masses to slow it down. This vortex tends to isolate Antarctica from the rest of the globe, keeping global warming from influencing Antarctica weather, and allowing the surface to cool. The Antarctic Peninsula, which sticks out from Antarctica towards South America, frequently lies outside the vortex. This has allowed the peninsula to warm significantly, compared to the rest of Antarctica (Figures 3 and 4). The Antarctic circumpolar vortex has strengthened in the past 25-30 years, forming an even stronger barrier than usual. Tree ring records (Jones and Widman, 2004) suggest that the circumpolar vortex has shown similar strengthening in the past, so the current cooling trend in Antarctica may be partly a natural cycle.
Another possibility, favored by climate modelers, is that the strengthening of the circumpolar vortex and recent cooling in Antarctica are primarily due to a combination of the recent increase in greenhouse gases and the opening of the Antarctic ozone hole. The ozone hole opened up at about the same time as the recent cooling began. Ozone absorbs UV radiation which heats the atmosphere around it, so the absence of ozone has led to cooling in the stratosphere over Antarctica. This cooling has been about 10° C in October-November since 1985 (Thompson and Solomon, 2002), and has acted to intensify the circumpolar vortex, leading to surface cooling. If the climate modelers are right, the circumpolar vortex will weaken as the ozone hole diminishes in coming decades. This will allow the Antarctic to begin warming with the rest of the globe.
References and resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, The Physical Science Basis.
Jones, J.M., and M. Widman, "Atmospheric science: Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index," Nature 432, 290-291 (18 November 2004) | doi:10.1038/432290b; Published online 17 November 2004.
Kwok, R., and J.C. Comiso, "Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 14, 10.1029/2002GL015415, 2002.
Thompson, D.W.J., and S. Solomon, "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change", Science 3 May 2002: Vol. 296. no. 5569, pp. 895 - 899 DOI: 10.1126/science.1069270.
Turner, J. et al., 2005, "Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years", International Journal of Climatology, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 279-294.
Arctic sea ice
"Antarctic cooling, global warming?" RealClimate.org post, 3 December 2004.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The disturbed weather in the Central Atlantic looks to have some circulation associated with it at the middle and upper levels. Showers and storms have been firing throughout the day, so this looks like an area of interest at this time. To me, it looks like shear may be decreasing in the area as well. Got to watch this area. Anybody interested in this feature?
The odds of any development of any kind are very very low in the basin.Will have to wait another 6-7 months before we see anything out there. Adrian
Can anyone answer my question above regarding the temps here in South Florida after this Arctic blast makes it here? Thanks.
You can get South Florida weather on my website anytime feel free to use the pages ive made.
www.Adrian's Weather.com
There is also a small one over Australia and Africa. The largest by far is the massive Tibetan High over the Tibetan Plateau with the Himalayas bordering the south side of the plateau.
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
how? Is there a website, software, or something?
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
how? Is there a website, software, or something?
Try this.
Link
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
how? Is there a website, software, or something?
It was a joke buddy....
Hows everything with you?I for one will be putting 100% effort in finishing up my degree and a few projects i have during this offseason.I'll be chatting with beven in a few weeks or so at the NHC and look forward to getting some video of my visit there.
Hope everyone has a fantastic weekned which is once again right around the corner. Adrian
Hey just fyo post #241
I lived through camille camping in the applications. With all the trees falling around the tent and the water rising was shall we exciting.. Too bad that back then there was no way to know it was coming. At least today, thanks to sites like this we can track the storms and if they come our way, make our own decision to pack up and leave. Those that are too dumb to leave, well that is the process of natural selection. And while I now live in Wash. state, I am one of those hillbillys you mentioned.
Me too. Went over and tried to help pick up the pieces afterwards. Going down to Nelson this evening to pick a little music.
You have to have been following the whole thread to make sense of the post and I apologize if I offended you. I was attempting to get lindenii to see how offensive his post have appeared to someone from Yucatan.
The thread has run on long enough. I am going to let it drop.
I'm doing fine. When you visit the NHC could you document their operations. Like how they gather data to put into the Computer models and such.
hurricane23,
I'm doing fine. When you visit the NHC could you document their operations. Like how they gather data to put into the Computer models and such.
Yep i will do....Beven is a funny guy and has a great personality.Not sure if you have heard the video from ED on the 2007 season?You should hear its interesting.
...EXCEPT FOR WINDS SOUTHWEST WINDS THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THU NIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE EAST AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS MAY REACH 6 FEET THU AND THU NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP (waves rideable) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
256. Weather456 8:52 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
254. hurricane23 4:44 PM AST on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
how? Is there a website, software, or something?
It was a joke buddy....'
You got me good that time. LOL
THEN I saw:
254. hurricane23 8:44 PM GMT on November 28, 2007
Why dont we track asteroids in space?
ROFL!
"Antarctic cooling
What is significant is the fact that most of Antarctica cooled in recent decades (Figure 3). For example, the surface temperature at the South Pole cooled 0.05° C between 1980 and 1999 (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). However, the majority of Antarctica has shown no statistically significant warming over the past 50 years (Turner et al., 2005)--the cooling has just been over the past 25-30 years. In the period 2004-2007, much of the Antarctic warmed (Figure 4). Why did Antarctica cool between 1982 and 2004 if there was global warming going on?
Well, the globe, on average, has warmed about 1.1° F (0.65° C) in the 50 years ending in 2005 (IPCC, 2007). Given that there is a lot of natural variability in the climate, it should be expected that some areas of the globe would not see warming, given the relatively modest magnitude of global warming thus far.
Figure 3. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1982 and 2004. Much of Antarctica cooled during this period. Image credit: IPCC The Physical Science Basis, Figure 3.32.
Figure 4. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1981 and 2007. Note that the cooling trend observed from 1982-2004 has reversed, thanks to warming in the past few years."
Sounds like the answer was in the blog the whole time to me. Sorry if this was already brought up but I just noticed it.
Over the years that I have watched the wunderground, the one thing I noticed was that it tended toward a scientific approach to the weather. Consequently, my comments were based on the assumption that most of those individuals who came to this blog were scientifically oriented as well.
Your mention of the individual from the Yucatan being bothered by my comments mystifies me. Am I mistaken or wasn't Noel barely a CAT 1? And it never came close to the Yucatan, correct?
My comments were originally in response to the comments regarding Noel and its supposed dangerousness; when, in fact, the deaths were not caused by its intensity but by the rain it brought and the landslides the rain caused.
My comments later were related to the discussion that the ACE for 2007 was so small that it made 2007 more of a kitten than a tiger as some had wanted to label it as being. If I remember correctly, I compared it to 2005 and the ACE generated that year. And those comments were precipitated by the claim that wanted to include the collateral damage that occurred into the mix of how the 2007 hurricane season would be described.
Isn't our goal on this blog to try to help develope ways to not only predict the formation of a hurricane and its intensity; but also, to more accurately predict the path once formed. Isn't our goal also to develope techniques that can give us a more accurate prediction of future tropical seasons?
It is my belief that there is someone among us today who will be instrumental in creating the algorhythm that will give us that ability. Let us not throw distractions in that persons path by lamenting what happened after a hurricane strikes and then insisting that those laments be included in the data as if it were a contributing facter in the formation and subsequent activity. Otherwise, we do ourselves and the victims a great disservice
Are we wannabe scientists or are we tabloid wonks? I like the sound of scientist, don't you?
Ozone is a strong greenhouse gas. As the hole in the ozone layer over the SouthPole diminishes, a greater amount of heat radiating from the surface is reflected back down.
Since less heat is escaping into space, Antarctica is getting warmer.
hurricane23 "Why don't we track asteroids in space?"
hrrrm... This is s'poseta be a meteorology site, and nary a mention of meteors.
Attempting to link the damages and injuries incurred during this 2007 Hurricane season to a description of what type of season we had, calling it 'deadly' or 'as predicted' is nothing more than an attempt to sensationalize an otherwise non-descript season.
We have a choice to make. Is it more tabloid wonk or is it scientific?
Levi32 "BTW did anyone ever come up with an answer to MichaelSTL's observation that Antartica has warmed dramatically this year according to the map he provided?"
Ozone is a strong greenhouse gas. As the hole in the ozone layer over the SouthPole diminishes, a greater amount of heat radiating from the surface is reflected back down.
Since less heat is escaping into space, Antarctica is getting warmer.
I know all that :P. When MichaelSTL brought it up, he was saying that it contradicted what Dr. Masters was saying about the Antarctic cooling. Therefore the validity of the data was in question. I was just clearing that part of it up.
2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Enough, Uncle!
We have flogged this poor horse to death.
I don't remember figure4 and the paragraph starting with "Another possibility, favored by climate modelers..." as being up when MichaelSTL posted the 2006-2007 chart. Not that my memory is infallible.
But I do remember writing a long response to him -- which I wouldn't have if I could have just pointed figure4&etc out to him -- then giving up in frustration after accidentally deleting it before posting. By the time I got back into the mood, the conversation had drifted far away.
I coulda just somehow skipped over it, as could have he.
Either way, MichaelSTL said, "Either there is some seriously messed up data (from here), or the past year has been quite different from recent years past."
Note the "Either...or..." And there certainly has been a major shift in the direction that the temperature has been heading in the last two or three years.
Storm Surge Video
Link
269. lindenii
Enough, Uncle!
We have flogged this poor horse to death.
Geez, and before I got a chance to get my few licks in . . . u guys are SO wrong . . .
LOL
Evening everybody. I'm hard at work but skimming the day's comments with interest.
I still believe (and obviously the record has proven again and again) that a large, slow-moving, wet storm can be as dangerous in its own way as a high-powered major category storm. Our challenge as meteorologists and related enthusiasts is not only to advance our understanding of what fuels and drives these systems, but also to ensure that people in the path of such systems have as clear and accurate an idea as possible of what the dangers are so they can be mitigated against.
We cannot dismiss the fact that one of the parameters used in the past to define "bad" storms HAS been loss of life. I don't think downplaying the effects of storms on people is any more useful in the long run than hyperbolizing them. We saw this several times this year - TS Erin, Hurricane Noel, the unnamed system that killed over 100 in Pakistan - in each case people were not made aware of the effects or the potential effects were downplayed. This is one reason why I don't think referring to these storms as part of the measure of the season is wrong.
The reality is that storms have meaning to the bulk of us because they have the power [potentially] to radically impact our lives. How radical the impact is, however, shouldn't depend on the quality of the information disseminated. This means we need to be refining our ability to inform the public in ways that are clear to them, using parameters that are broader simply how strong winds are. This is certainly a part of our science.
Levi32 "When MichaelSTL brought it up, he was saying that it contradicted what Dr. Masters was saying about the Antarctic cooling."
I don't remember figure4 and the paragraph starting with "Another possibility, favored by climate modelers..." as being up when MichaelSTL posted the 2006-2007 chart. Not that my memory is infallible.
But I do remember writing a long response to him -- which I wouldn't have if I could have just pointed figure4&etc out to him -- then giving up in frustration after accidentally deleting it before posting. By the time I got back into the mood, the conversation had drifted far away.
I coulda just somehow skipped over it, as could have he.
Either way, MichaelSTL said, "Either there is some seriously messed up data (from here), or the past year has been quite different from recent years past."
Note the "Either...or..." And there certainly has been a major shift in the direction that the temperature has been heading in the last two or three years.
UGH, how clear to I have to be? lol. MichaelSTL made a comment about either the data was bad or this year was different. I'm just confirming and clarifying that the past 2-3 years WERE different. That's all!!! LOL. I'm done ok?
Very nicely stated and I agree with most of what you have written.
When you wrote, "We cannot dismiss the fact that one of the parameters used in the past to define "bad" storms HAS been loss of life. I don't think downplaying the effects of storms on people is any more useful in the long run than hyperbolizing them. We saw this several times this year - TS Erin, Hurricane Noel, the unnamed system that killed over 100 in Pakistan - in each case people were not made aware of the effects or the potential effects were downplayed. This is one reason why I don't think referring to these storms as part of the measure of the season is wrong."
**************
There is a point that I would like to evaluate for a moment.
One of the ways that we learn new things about any particular subject is to research what has been done before. Watching my son research the environment of South Florida and the exterpation of various species of plants and animals, I can speak first hand that having to wade through superfluous commentary can be very frustrating. Why? Because it is such a waste of time.
In the case of hurricanes, yes news of the collateral damage is an important tool for demonstrating to a group of 'doubting Thomases' that they should be prepared for an encounter with a hurricane. Focus on the word...news
Rather than stick our heads in the sand, so as to avoid the truth that in many cases, it truly is the ineffective infrastructure that causes much of the losses. For example, excessive damage was caused by Hurricane Andrew. In response, Florida rewrote the building code for areas prone to exposure to hurricanes. My home serves as a good example of what those changes mean.
The concrete block walls have every third vertical course reinforced with re-bar and concrete. The tie-downs keeping the roof to the walls is double what they once were. All my windows and doors are rated to 125+MPH except for my garage doors which are rated to 155MPH. Incidentally, the newer codes now require 135mph+ rating for doors and windows, as well as storm shutters.
Prior to Andrew, the infrastructure was ineffective and, to their credit, they did indeed beef up building codes. In other words, they learned from their mistakes and did what was necessary to help prevent it from happening again. What is wrong with expecting others to do the same?
Likewise, we should refrain from 'hyperbolizing', as you put it, that same information when discussing the scientific aspects of same.
If you were gathering data on tropical weather patterns for the last century, wouldn't you rather see notations at the end of various publications that told you where to look for the toll of the aftermath of those years of interest? Or would you rather read headlines shouting alarming news about a given season, only to find that, indeed, the damage was done by hardly more than a glorifed thunderstorm?
All I am saying is that we have an obligation to keep the NEWS separate from the scientific analysis, so that we do not mingle the two and lose sight of what we are discussing.
Even if the little ice age was not a global phenomena, it certainly effected North America and Europe, the very place where much of the world’s food is grown. If warming is dangerous, cooling would be catastrophic. If whatever caused the little ice age is becoming active again, human activity that brightens the surface of the Earth (farming) and increases the reflectivity of the atmosphere (air pollution) will exacerbate the cooling. The hope is that all the CO2 humans have pumped into the atmosphere will mitigate the cooling.
Until we understand what causes periodic cooling phases, such as the little ice age, we don’t know if cutting CO2 emissions is the right thing to do. We need lots more research into all aspects of Earth’s climate and labeling people Skeptics and even Deniers is both arrogant and myopic.
Here is a link of an article out of the Orlando Sentinel that speaks about the 2007 Hurricane season that is about to end. Similar to my comments yesterday, it talks about the need for these forecasts and the damage they cause by negatively scaring away perspective tourist.
Link
While I will always defer to the good Doctors' meteorological judgement, I must respectfully disagree with his maritime naviational judgement...
The greatest navigation feat of all time was Captain Bligh's safe return to Tahiti aboard the Bounty's tender after the mutiny....
although he is correct on one point: The story of Shackleton and his men is a hell of a tale...
FEATURE
Forests Damaged by Hurricane Katrina Become Major Carbon Source
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NASA Hurricane Resource Page
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seems to be fixed now
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