Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Sunday's 'Noreaster
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on December 14, 2007 +2
Sunday's 'Noreaster looks to be a wet one, thanks in part to Tropical Storm Olga. Visible satellite images show the remains of Olga continue to spin in the Western Caribbean, generating a bit of shower activity that may give a wet day to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Wind shear over Olga's remains is 40 knots and rising, so no redevelopment is expected. On Saturday, the progenitor of Sunday's 'Noreaster is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will pull the remains of Olga into it, making for a very wet storm when it hits the Northeast U.S. Expect heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations to inland regions of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia and New York City. Boston will get a horrible mix of snow, sleet and rain, which could shut down Logan Airport for a time Sunday. Minor coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds is expected along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday. With some significant freezing rain coupled with strong winds expected in many regions, falling tree limbs will cause widespread power outages.

Consult the Northeast Weather blog for a more detailed analysis of this weekend's storm.

Jeff Masters
Frozen (treeman)
Looking for a melt down today
Frozen
Categories: Winter Weather
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1001. JLPR 1:05 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
lol Weather456 that what they most say for the north hemisphere ''weird, winter in December, January and February'' lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1002. JLPR 1:06 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
nite Weather456
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1003. HadesGodWyvern 1:07 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
As of 0000 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04R [997 hPa] located near 18.5ºS 63.2ºE, or 820 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.9S 60.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last six hours. It should keep on regulary tracking towards Mascarenes Islands, and could temporarily encounter less unfavorable conditions for intensification (Minimal Moderate Tropical Storm stage could be reached within the next 12 hours). Nevertheless, it should not strengthen further (Due to too cool sea surface temperatures and poorly favorable conditions) and weaked as it comes closer to Mauritius Island.

Winds extension is measured thanks to satellite imagery data. Winds extension is wider in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36948
1005. G35Wayne 4:41 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
and thats the end of the bad weather see ya next time.
1007. HadesGodWyvern 7:11 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
As of 0600 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [992 hPa] located near 19.5ºS 62.0ºE, or 665 kms east-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.0

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 58.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last 12 hours towards a trough shifting in its southwest it has also intensified during last night to a moderate tropical storm, which Mauritius Meteorological Services has named "Celina" at 4:30am UTC. Celina is expected to keep on tracking rapidly southwestward within the next 48 hours and then recurving linked to the rebuilding subtropical high pressures. The system has probably reached its maximum intensity and environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable with a weak polar inflow linked to the shifting trough in its south and a not sufficent energetic potential on cooler sea surface temperatures.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36948
1008. listenerVT 7:44 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
P451...
Send a refrigerated truck to Vermont and I'll send you a truckload of snow from my back yard! :~)

Just went out and shovelled again, especially to be able to put some seed down in strategic places, to encourage the birds first thing in the morning. A rabbit had passed through, and the deer cleaned out the feeders out front. (I can't see the feeders out back until daylight.)

We have a total so far of 14" in this storm, so 26" on the ground in general... and it's still coming down at a good clip here. This could be Lake Effect snow off of Lake Champlain.

We'll see what's out there come daylight.

Our friend's son made it home to Vermont from California...rerouted through Cincinnati instead of NYC. His mom gallantly plowed the driveway with a backhoe to be able to go fetch him! Ah, the will of a mother whose child is coming home on holiday. The mail carriers have nothing over moms!

Take care, everyone! ♥
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4825
1009. Cavin Rawlins 11:08 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Moderate Tropical Storm Celina (04R)

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Curved Band 0.35 arc

Current Intensity: CI 2.3

Adjustments by MET: MET sugguest CI 2.0 but based on increase organization, the CI will be kept at 2.3.

Final Estimate: CI 2.0

Dvorak Tends:
Past Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.0
0330 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1300 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1730 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1030 UTC 17 DEC - CI 2.3


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1010. Cavin Rawlins 11:17 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Tropical Invest 97S

1030 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern Type: 2 Curved bands 0.30 arc

Current Intensity: CI 1.7

Adjustments: Met agrees.

Final Estimate: CI 1.7

Dvroak Trends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1011. Cavin Rawlins 11:17 AM GMT on December 17, 2007    
good morning to all
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1012. cchsweatherman 1:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Good morning all! I have just done a full update on my website for those who want to check it out.

It reached 47 here in Cooper City, FL this morning when I went for a 8-mile early morning run like I talked about last night. Felt great.

I hope everyone made it through the storm without much damage and/or injury since it looks like this system beat up the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest pretty good over the past few days.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4928
1013. cchsweatherman 2:23 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Where is everyone this morning?
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4928
1015. Patrap 2:26 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Sleeping in..its cold.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113014
1018. cchsweatherman 2:44 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Good luck JFV!
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4928
1019. NEwxguy 2:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Gm all,only Dec.17th and I'm tired of winter.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13283
1020. overwash12 3:15 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
hey cchs, where you located at? the reason i asked, I was curious at the cchs and what it stands for.
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1056
1021. Patrap 3:16 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Winter dont start till Friday..HAng in there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113014
1022. LakeShadow 3:18 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
morning...got just about a foot of snow.
the storm was wussy by my standards, but its good fort buiding stuff.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1023. NEwxguy 3:30 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
weather service calls winter Dec,Jan,Feb.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13283
1024. LakeShadow 3:34 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Winter in b-lo lasts from November to April. :oS
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1025. LakeShadow 3:36 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
I am, however looking forward to the days getting longer. This winter solstice crap brings me down. The next week is the darkest all year...that's depressing. This is the Darkest Monday... ugh...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1026. Cavin Rawlins 3:38 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Tropical Cyclone 97S

1500 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution.

Adjustment: Central Cold Cover (CCC) Pattern will be used.

Current Intensity: CI 2.2

Dvorak Tends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1027. LakeShadow 3:43 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution

UFO???!?!?!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
1028. Cavin Rawlins 3:47 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
not a UFO or CDO but the coldest cloud tops.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1029. LakeShadow 4:04 PM GMT on December 17, 2007    
LOL...bein' silly
:oP
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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