Sunday's 'Noreaster looks to be a wet one, thanks in part to Tropical Storm Olga. Visible satellite images show the remains of Olga continue to spin in the Western Caribbean, generating a bit of shower activity that may give a wet day to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Wind shear over Olga's remains is 40 knots and rising, so no redevelopment is expected. On Saturday, the progenitor of Sunday's 'Noreaster is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm will pull the remains of Olga into it, making for a very wet storm when it hits the Northeast U.S. Expect heavy snow amounts of 1-2 feet and significant ice accumulations to inland regions of Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Rain appears to be the most likely type of precipitation at locations nearer the coast, such as Philadelphia and New York City. Boston will get a horrible mix of snow, sleet and rain, which could shut down Logan Airport for a time Sunday. Minor coastal flooding due to strong northeast winds is expected along the coast from New York City to Maine on Sunday. With some significant freezing rain coupled with strong winds expected in many regions, falling tree limbs will cause widespread power outages.
Consult the Northeast Weather blog for a more detailed analysis of this weekend's storm.
Jeff Masters
Looking for a melt down today
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Dvorak Intensity: 2.5
Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center
Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.9S 60.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 20.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last six hours. It should keep on regulary tracking towards Mascarenes Islands, and could temporarily encounter less unfavorable conditions for intensification (Minimal Moderate Tropical Storm stage could be reached within the next 12 hours). Nevertheless, it should not strengthen further (Due to too cool sea surface temperatures and poorly favorable conditions) and weaked as it comes closer to Mauritius Island.
Winds extension is measured thanks to satellite imagery data. Winds extension is wider in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
Dvorak Intensity: 3.0
Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 60.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.3S 58.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
Additional Information
=======================
The system has accelerated over the last 12 hours towards a trough shifting in its southwest it has also intensified during last night to a moderate tropical storm, which Mauritius Meteorological Services has named "Celina" at 4:30am UTC. Celina is expected to keep on tracking rapidly southwestward within the next 48 hours and then recurving linked to the rebuilding subtropical high pressures. The system has probably reached its maximum intensity and environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable with a weak polar inflow linked to the shifting trough in its south and a not sufficent energetic potential on cooler sea surface temperatures.
Send a refrigerated truck to Vermont and I'll send you a truckload of snow from my back yard! :~)
Just went out and shovelled again, especially to be able to put some seed down in strategic places, to encourage the birds first thing in the morning. A rabbit had passed through, and the deer cleaned out the feeders out front. (I can't see the feeders out back until daylight.)
We have a total so far of 14" in this storm, so 26" on the ground in general... and it's still coming down at a good clip here. This could be Lake Effect snow off of Lake Champlain.
We'll see what's out there come daylight.
Our friend's son made it home to Vermont from California...rerouted through Cincinnati instead of NYC. His mom gallantly plowed the driveway with a backhoe to be able to go fetch him! Ah, the will of a mother whose child is coming home on holiday. The mail carriers have nothing over moms!
Take care, everyone! ♥
1030 UTC DEC 17 2007
Pattern: Curved Band 0.35 arc
Current Intensity: CI 2.3
Adjustments by MET: MET sugguest CI 2.0 but based on increase organization, the CI will be kept at 2.3.
Final Estimate: CI 2.0
Dvorak Tends:
Past Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.0
0330 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1300 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1730 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1030 UTC 17 DEC - CI 2.3
1030 UTC DEC 17 2007
Pattern Type: 2 Curved bands 0.30 arc
Current Intensity: CI 1.7
Adjustments: Met agrees.
Final Estimate: CI 1.7
Dvroak Trends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
It reached 47 here in Cooper City, FL this morning when I went for a 8-mile early morning run like I talked about last night. Felt great.
I hope everyone made it through the storm without much damage and/or injury since it looks like this system beat up the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest pretty good over the past few days.
the storm was wussy by my standards, but its good fort buiding stuff.
1500 UTC DEC 17 2007
Pattern: Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution.
Adjustment: Central Cold Cover (CCC) Pattern will be used.
Current Intensity: CI 2.2
Dvorak Tends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2
UFO???!?!?!
:oP
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