Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Another shot of the hurricane-force low developing in the north Pacific.

Again...the huge Pacific low...
(Well, I tried to upload it to ImageShack and share it, but it doesn't seem to be working for me. So here's the link instead:
Link

Looks like there's another swirl coming along after that big one. My goodness, but this is a strange winter.

[i]Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E
Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E

Aren't those really the same storm, being just one degree apart and with weak storms like that, positions can easily vary by that much among different agencies?[/i]

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95S/07R position as of 0:00am UTC

from NRL 17.2S 56.3E
from sub-RSMC Mauritius 17.2S 56.4E

There you go. now it can be shared by all =)

major severe weather out break tops to 50000 to 60000 feet in abnormal warm sector as flow off of gom combine with flow from cal trackin ne to nw grt lakes providing dividing line for the set up of severe weather from gulf coast n to mid/lower grt lakes beginning during the next 12 to 24 hrs

At 03:00 AM, Tropical Depression 07F [1008 hPa] analyzed near 18.0S 175.5W and is moving slowly. Position is FAIR based on Multispectral satellite visible and infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation with sea surface temperatures near 28-29C. There is a more definite organization in the convection surrounding the system. (more so around the eastern half) The cyclonic circulation is evident from the surface to 250 HPA with the low level circulation center partly exposed. Tropical Depression 07F is located in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment with global models picking up the system with very little intensification and moving slowly towards southwest.

The potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is MODERATE.

100. MichaelSTL 12:20 AM AST on January 07, 2008
Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E
Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E

if u mean my posts...update 2 was 12 hrs earlier than update 3...and they are not from the official agencies.....

Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 3

Issued: 0400 UTC JAN 07 2008

Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E. Position based on visible imagery. Movement towards the south-southeast. Movement based on 14 km infrared imagery. Estimated surface winds are 20-25 knots and estimated surface pressure remains constant at 1010 mb. LLCC remains south of the deepest convection. Infrared center showed an organizing system earlier today but tonight's first visible images showed the center well south of Update 2, just on the fringes of the convective mass. Dvorak estimated intensity* stands at CI 1.5. Wind shear above the disturbance ranges from 5-20 knots. SSTs are 86F. The future of this system is uncertain. Near term, conditions should favor tropical cyclogenesis, but new data suggest shear will increase from the south induced by the large cold core upper low south of Madagascar.

by W456

Tropical Invest 95S Update (Revised) 2

Issued: 1500 UTC JAN 06 2008

Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E. Movement drifting southeastward. Position method was based on WindSat which place the circulation just on the southern edge of the convective mass. Movement was based on 24 hr position trends. Estimated surface winds is 20 knots. Estimated surface pressure is 1010 based on surrounding synoptic reports. The circulation of 95S remains broad and somewhat closed. The highest winds are within the region to the northwest and southeast where the low pressure area meets the monsoon westerlies and southeast trades. Satellite imagery have indicated that 95S appears to be gradually organize based infrared bias. Curve bands have become more distinct throughout the day. Dvorak estimated intensity stands at CI 1.5. Wind shear above the disturbance ranges from 5-20 knots. SSTs are 86F. Conditions are forecast to remain favorable for development in the near term. The steering flow is rather weak in the area so movement in the next 24-48 hrs is uncertain.

by W456

* based on me. Not the official estimate.

DISCLAIMER: These advisories are not official. I constructed them based on my knowledge of tropical forecasting. Visit the JTWC for any official information.

Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 4

Issued 1200 UTC JAN 07 2008

Tropical Disturbance 07R is centered near 17.5S-56.9E. Movement towards the southeast. Position was based on visible imagery and synoptic reports from Mauritius and Reunion. Surface winds are estimated to be 20 knots based on QuikSCAT, WindSat and cloud motion vectors moving into the system from the south. Estimated surface pressure is in the range of 1007-1009 mb, this is based on 24 hr pressure tendencies from the synoptic reports. Visible imagery showed the center has gradually move under the convective mass. The overall system still remains lop-sided. Wind shear is below 10 knots due to the development of a small upper anticyclonic circulation over the disturbance, whose outflow has skewed convection towards the north. Sea surface temperatures around the disturbance is 85F. The CMC is indicating wind shear should remain low enough for the cyclone to gain some organization in the next 24 hrs as it moves towards the south-southeast.

by W456

Good morning

I hope that low forms in the gulf. Tropical, non tropical, sub-tropical....just GET LOW! and form a hair further south would ya? South Florida needs the rain worse than the rest......I would hate to see it go north of Lake O.

Ummmm, i love january thaws,kind of lets you get your breath before the next onslaught of winter.