Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Depression 08F Preliminary Update 2

Issued 2000 UTC 11 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08F located near 15.9S-175.2W drifting eastward. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. SSTs are 82F-85F and wind shear is 10 knots.

The LLCC of 08F was very difficult to locate hence the reason for the preliminary update. Until QuikSCAT and better information becomes available, the center will be based solely on synoptic reports and personal judgment - and not just the reports themselves but calculations derived from those reports like relative and absolute vorticity. Surface winds and sea level pressure were also based on synoptic reports. Satellite imagery shows an elongated area of broad showers and thunderstorms with curve banding to the north. The LLCC is not readily identified in satellite an image meaning the disturbance is slow to organize. Environmental conditions still favor tropical cyclogenesis and global models - the CMC, GFS and NAVY NOGAPS are still hinting the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbed weather area.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 99P INVEST.15kts-1006mb-141S-1796E

SW Indian
----
7 Disturbance or Depressions

Bongwe
Celina
Dama
Elnus

Northwestern Australia/Central Indian Ocean
--------------------
should have been TC LEE (July 2007)
Lee-Ariel
Melanie

Northern Territory
----------------
Helen

Northeastern Australia/Queensland
---------------------------------
Guba

Southern Pacific (East of 160E)
-----------------------
8 disturbance or depressions

Daman
Elisa

JTWC had dissipated 99P at 0600z

ABPW10 Bulletin 0600 UTC

it also included the upgraded FAIR condition for 90W.

If PAGASA designates 90W a tropical depression it will be name Ambo.

Tropical Depression 08F Update 3

Issued 0700 UTC 12 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical depression 08F located near 14.9S-179.5W drifting eastward. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum sea level pressure is 1002 mb. SSTs are 82F-85F and wind shear is 10 knots.

Dvorak enhanced infrared imagery made a little easier to find the LLCC of 08F and along with synoptic reports, a more reasonable and satisfied center has been determined. Surface winds and sea level pressure were also based on synoptic reports. Satellite imagery and its derived products show an elongated area of broad showers, thunderstorms and convergence with curve banding to the north. The LLCC is not readily identified in satellite an image meaning the disturbance is slow to organize. Environmental conditions still favor tropical cyclogenesis and global models - the CMC, GFS and NAVY NOGAPS are still hinting the development of a tropical cyclone from this disturbed weather area as it moves towards the southeast then southwest under the influence of the subtropical ridge.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 99P INVEST.15kts-1006mb-141S-1796E

Puerto Galera, Philippines, as 90W crosses

O'Higgins Station, Antarctica

Wellington Habour, New Zealand

G'morning to you, kind sir! A foggy day here in NorthEast Florida, makes me thing that spring is about to pull up in the driveway, and discuss room and board.

Hello all,

wow...only 5 post from 3 am this morning. Morning stormw and all

G"morning 456, cyber, et al.

456- I don't want any more hunches, ok? but if I have any, should I still share them with you?

456- I don't want any more hunches, ok? but if I have any, should I still share them with you?

Dont let your hunches seem that bad. Remember, knowing it would happen is the best thing. It allows you prepare and you can use to urs and other ppl advantage. If you have anymore, sure.

Good morning StormW, W456, aquak9, CybrTeddy and other early birds ;-)

I'm back home from my winter vacation. Landing on Helsinki airport was quite shaky yesterday (38mph winds), haven't had a ride like that before I think.
The weather here is just like it was all November, stormy and too warm (38 F). Where's the Finnish winter with 10" snow at least and -4 F and below?
The chain of low pressure systems coming from the Atlantic is quite unusual for this time of the year, the high over Russia which normally influences the Finnish winter weather is too far east. Last year it was too weak for half the winter, no snow and no temperatures below 0 F until January 21st and one of the earliest snowmelts as well. This year it also looks like we have to wait at least another week until the high reaches us to provide stable cold weather. Brrr... I better get the rain gear.

Hey guys. I'm taking a trip to DC next Sunday the 20th-23rd, and I was wondering if one of you could tell me if I am looking at a chance of snow bc I've never seen it before. Some live close?

Tornado strikes near Melbourne
Friday January 11, 2008 - 17:25 EDT

A small tornado has hit Nagambie, north of Melbourne, causing widespread damage.

There are no reports of injuries.

Fallen trees and power lines have blocked the Goulburn Valley Highway at Nagambie, and the Northern Highway near Rochester.

Flooding and fallen branches have blocked the Maroondah Highway in both directions at Black Spur, near Healesville.

The state's north-east has been the region hit hardest by wild weather since a cool change earlier today.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says it has received more than 150 calls.

Jilly Charlwood from the SES says the busiest areas have been Euroa, Sorrento and Frankston.

"The main issues that Victorian SES crews are dealing with this afternoon are fallen trees over properties and roads and we've also seen quite a bit of roof damage due to the strong winds," she said.

Nagambie resident Max Fothergill says the wild weather came on suddenly but was over in a flash.

"The rain was solid and the wind was uppity," he said.

"I heard plenty of noise, a lot of noise - it was very surprising as it was calm one minute and the next thing we had a storm on us. If I walked out now, it is almost sunshine."

- ABC

© ABC 2007

Good morning from north east Pac.
Question:
Are records for the track of the northern sub tropical jet stream available?
A friend of mine wonders if the average path of this jet has shifted south over time.
If so (he thinks) this could be one of the energy sinks that masks greater energy retention in the atmosphere because the overall length of the jet path would be greater.
If not: what other mechanisms should we be looking for?

there is a anormally within the current global cir in the n hem the centre has shifted at the north pole and appears to be tilted more towards asia/russia south to cen china along hims over n indie up along n middle east across sw europe wih a warmer secter push as high a ne europe across cen west atlantic across e sea board noa
check out link look at the big piture u can clearly see the shift Link

if link dont work heres url
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/-gadomski/SAT_NHEM/atlanim16ir.html

Good morning folks!

Just wanted to drop to post the lastest anomalies for the atlantic basin and the situation right now kinda worries me as its been a while since ive seen anomalies like this in janauary.Of course things can change as we are a long time away from tropical season but in my opinion this needs to be closely watched as it may ultimately lead to some big problems in the basin.Have a great weekend.

Here is the MAP!



www.AdriansWeather.com

this shift is responsible for stange weather the last little while imo
our naked swirl in west atlantic is holding coarse looks to be movin wsw ever so slowly still holding out for a approach to 26n/65w

23, Do you mean a bad year for the US in 08? And Gate, 23 is most of the time correct.

That is interesting Adrian and go to see you are monitoring the situation as we are 4 months away from the season. I'm not liking that hot pool near the coast of Africa or the one in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the problems we had in 2007 was the the sea surface temperatures were near minimum for tropical cyclone development.

c t i never question any ones comments for all comments together will give a very good outlook thats why i like this site lots of info with many things seen by many people helps me figure out what the hell is going on

Keeper:
Both link and url return error "not found" at my end.

Link
try this then to left click nhem ir then select your anmin the longer the better able to see shift iam seeing

218. FLWeatherFreak91

You got mail.

Keeper

Still getting error message. this will put him at Pen Stat Weather home page

Link

Still no joy there, Keeper. Maybe a goole seach?

link not working either maybe no access but it works for me from penn state univ dept. of meteorology ewall tropical electronic map wall

That worked. Now I need to find Gadomski
Thanks, Keeper and Shen

Alright!
Thanks you guys

Thanks a lot hurricane23 and Keeper,

the map is the clue for the inexistent winter in Finland. The SST anomaly in the NE Atlantic could be the reason why we have no typical weather for January. The warmer temperatures cause more water to evaporate, hence one low pressure system with loads of humidity and mild temperatures after another races over the Atlantic into N-Europe. Current surface pressure analysis.
The normal situation should look more or less like this: analysis January 2. A strong high over Western Russia /Eastern Finland.
On January 4 the end of the strong ridge is already visible, low "Birgitta" coming across the Atlantic, now situated north of the UK. Wow, what a pressure gradient. A day later the high called "Evi" has already shrunk considerably and on January 8 the pressure of Evi has diminished to 1030 mb compared to the 1045 three days ago.
I wonder when the high can fight back and I'll see the sun again. Well, behind low "Ilse" (on the first map) a high pressure system is lurking just east of the Canadian coast but it is quite unsure whether it moves east or not.

Been a busy Spring like clash of the air masses in the Se. Thursday, the NOAA radio here was chirping like a Sparrow.

Welcome back Pat!!!

Tropical Disturbance 90W Update 4

Issued 2100 UTC 12 JAN 2008 by W456

Tropical disturbance centered near 12N/118W moving towards the west. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1007 hpa. SSTs are 28C and wind shear is 10-15 knots.

The LLC of 90W was located using shortwave channel 2 infrared imagery from NOAA, which clearly shows a circulation in the Eastern South China Sea. Surface winds were estimated from QuikSCAT and synoptic reports. Pressure was found using the minimum pressure reported by synoptic reports. CIMSS water vapor winds indicate that a large upper ridge centered over the Western Pacific Ocean is enhancing anticyclonic flow over the disturbance. This flow is causing some of the thunderstorms to remain north of the LLCC. Global models indicate that the system will gradually pull away from this high and intensify some while moving west then southwest across the South China Sea in response of the NE monsoonal flow.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 90W INVEST.20kts-1006mb-121N-1195E

Cloud Streets over the Caspian Sea. Image by MODIS on Terra

that looks cold !
cool

Image of the low taken earlier today by GOES 12 GVAR Channel 1 Visible imagery.

Heavy rain without all the drama (wind).

hey...just a quick off the subject question on what a weather man said...if it is zero degrees and going to be twice as cold as that...would that be -2 or -10...anyone know how they come up with this?

Evening All,

For all you Northeast Snow Lovers:

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
410 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2008

...FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...REACHING SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING...BECOMING ALL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON."

thanks P451 I do not know the answer to that as well...just what a weatherman said up in the NY area...had me stumped

@p451:
0F is -17C or about 256K

Twice as cold would be 128K or -145C or about -230F! Better grab some really warm clothes!