2007: Fifth warmest year on record
The data is in, and 2007 finished as the 5th warmest year on record for the globe, according to figures released by the National Climatic Data Center. For land areas only, 2007 ranked as the warmest year on record. For the oceans, 2007 was the ninth warmest year on record. La Niña continued to strengthen at the end of the year, creating ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific more than -3°F (-1.7°C) below average. The rapid decay of the El Niño event that rang in 2007 and subsequent development of a moderate La Niña event caused the failure of the forecast issued by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office on January 4 of 2007, predicting a a 60% chance that 2007 would be the warmest year on record. The forecasters cited the combined influence of the continuing global warming trend, and the presence of a moderate El Niño event.
Figure 1. Global temperatures (land plus ocean) for 1880-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
The warmest years on record globally were 2005 and 1998, when the global average temperatures were 1.08°F and 1.04°F higher than the long-term average of 57°F. The 2007 temperature was .99°F above average. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise in temperatures of more than 1°F (0.6°C) since 1900. Within the past three decades, the rate of warming in global temperatures has been approximately three times greater than the century scale trend. All ten of the top ten warmest years for the globe have occurred since 1995. The global temperature record goes back to 1880.
Tenth warmest year on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record. U.S. weather records go back to 1895. Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6°F per decade.
Figure 2. U.S. temperatures for 1895-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Arctic sea ice remains near record low levels
December 2007 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the second lowest on record for the month of December, 13% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. December was the second straight month that a new monthly minimum Arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. However, the December 2007 sea ice extent was very close to the record low extent set in 2006, and the ice is much thinner than it was in 2006. This will likely cause a very early melting season and a probable return to record lows by April.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"12z NAM model indicating a significant winter weather event across
central Alabama late Friday night and Saturday. 12z GFS also
showing winter weather across area but with much lesser amounts.
Confidence is increasing for the possibility of winter
precipitation...and afternoon forecast package will bear this
out."
From Birmingham,AL weather office....
"12z NAM model indicating a significant winter weather event across
central Alabama late Friday night and Saturday. 12z GFS also
showing winter weather across area but with much lesser amounts.
Confidence is increasing for the possibility of winter
precipitation...and afternoon forecast package will bear this
out."
Yea the 18z NAM shows that as well. A 500mb trough will move down from Canada advecting cooler air to the region. The 5400 thickness line and 850mb temperatures below zero degrees do appear to support snow fall. The next area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico and the cold air at the surface and aloft would make for a wintry event.
Heres the NAM Sim reflectivity which reveals moderate snow fall.
...Central Region Web Servers Down...
Ice has damaged a cooling compressor fan at the Central Region data center, resulting in several major systems overheating. Temporary backup pages have been implemented for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Upper Mississippi Valley. We apologize for the inconvenience and are working to restore full services quickly as possible.
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This would be the reason for not being able to view certain products at this time, such as area forecast discussions...
Seems like the convection associated with the frontal system has begun to die over the GOM...
Play this back (the -3hr button) & you can see what happened to your (our) storms.
Comparing 2007 tornado #s to years past.
Skye, those numbers look ENSO related, don't they?
"Conclusions:
There are significant changes in tornadic activity associated with ENSO events in the eastern two-thirds of the United States"
The maximum intensity of Felix near 0000-0600 UTC 3 September has greater than normal uncertainty. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft estimated a 163 kt surface wind in the northeastern eyewall using the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), while a dropsonde in the vicinity measured winds of 195 kt about 120 m above the surface. (The sonde subsequently fell into the eye, which significantly reduced the low-level layer-average winds that are normally used to assess the surface winds.) Examination of these SFMR data by personnel at the NOAA Hurricane Research Division found no obvious problems with signal contamination by rain or graupel. However, the observed flight-level winds (152 kt at 700 mb), aircraft Doppler radar data, central pressure, and satellite signature do not support an intensity of 160-165 kt. Detailed data from the sonde show that the extreme winds were confined to the lowest 200 m, and that it made a left turn into the eye while passing through this layer. This suggests that the sonde and the SFMR sampled a small-scale feature in the eyewall that likely was not representative of the true strength of Felix. As the plane passed through the southeastern eyewall, the SFMR estimated surface winds of 142 kt, while a dropsonde reported low-level layer averages supporting 130-140 kt surface sustained winds. Given the westward motion at the time, it is likely that the stronger winds existed in the northern eyewall. The maximum intensity is set at 150 kt based on a blend of these data, and this could be conservative.
It should be noted that during this eye penetration, the NOAA aircraft encountered extreme turbulence and vertical motions, and it had to abort the mission and return to base.
My house would be relocated, probably somewhere near StormW's on the other coast of Florida...
WunderPoll:
How valuable do you find the June hurricane season forecasts issued by NOAA and Dr. Bill Gray's group?
Valuable
Not very valuable, but they should keep trying
The forecasts do more harm than good, and they should stop making them
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. at Michigan. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
Contact This Blog's Author
WunderPoll:
There are no more questions.
Thanks for taking this poll!
i tryed it out and it was cool
, 13% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began,
They must write this stuff for idiots.
In 1979 they were studying the coming of the next ice age,
because there was so much ice.
Start measuring then, at the peak, and exaggerates every thing.
the ice is much thinner than it was in 2006. This will likely cause a very early melting season and a probable return to record lows by April.
Or it could be the fact that thick ice has to come from some where, and that some where is thin ice.
It could mean that the ice is building back up.
oh doom and gloom LOL
Hiexpress~ I think the information on that graph isn't enough to form an opinion either way.
==========================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa Category Three [960 hPa] located near 17.4S 172.2E is reported moving southeast at 12 knots expected to continue its southeast track for the next 24 hours. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 70 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Position FAIR based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation.
Hurricane-Force Winds within 25 miles from the center
Storm-Force Winds within 50 miles from the center
Gale-Force Winds within 150 miles from the center.
Deep convection cooling and organization increasing. Cold Spirl Band to east consolidating while wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to east, Fair to south, and developing elsewhere. System still lies in a diffluent region with minimal shear. CIMSS maintains decreasing shear over system and along the forecasted track. Cyclone Funa is steered towards southeast under mid-level ridge to northeast.
Dvorak Intensity based DT 4.5, Thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS.
Global models generally agree on further intensification and a southeast track.
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.2S 173.3E 80 knots [CAT 3]
24 HRS: 20.8S 174.2E 85 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS: 25.5S 174.6E 50 knots [CAT 2]
excellent microwave imagery....notice the eye wall and egg-shaped eye
Weather Synopsis
===================
At 2 a.m. PST, A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 230 kms east of Mindanao (9.0°N 129.0°E). Tail-end of a cold front affecting Northern, Eastern and Southern luzon.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Disturbance Summary 0600z 18Jan
========================================
An area of convection (92W) located near 10.1N 128.1E or 140 NM east-northeast of Dapa, Philippines. Recent multispectral imagery shows weak cyclonic turning in the low levels with a more evident circulation in the mid level clouds. Quikscat Pass shows unflagged winds of 10-15 knots associated with the convection on the northern periphery of an area of broad troughing. The upper level environment is also limiting intensification with high vertical wind shear values.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 mb. Due to the unfavorable upper level environment and a weak vorticity signiture, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
---
we looking at a potential of 02W already?
At 06:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa CATEGORY THREE [960 hPa] located near 18.4S 162.9E is reported moving southeast at 12 knots, position FAIR. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots expected to increase to 85 knots within the next 24 hours
Hurricane Force Winds within 25 miles from center
Storm Force Winds within 60 miles from center
Gale Force Winds within 150 miles from center
Next Hurricane Warning at 1:00PM UTC
Statement as of 4:10 AM CST on January 18, 2008
... Snow expected late Friday night into Saturday for portions of
central Alabama...
... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through
Saturday evening...
The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Saturday evening.
Wintry precipitation... predominately snow... is expected to fall
across portions of central Alabama beginning several hours before
sunrise Friday night lasting into the afternoon hours on Saturday.
Accumulations up to two inches are possible. At this time the
highest accumulations are expected to occur along or just south of
the Interstate 20 corridor between Tuscaloosa and mount cheaha.
Surface temperatures are expected to be between 30 and 34 degrees
late Friday night through midday Saturday. With these expected
temperatures snow accumulation will be possible... especially on
elevated and grassy surfaces. Roadways may become slick in
spots... especially bridges overpasses and other elevated roads.
Visibility may become limited as well. Drivers are urged to
exercise caution.
Although there is still some uncertainty in this forecast it looks
probable that some snow will fall across central Alabama. Stay
advised as we will likely be updating and or revising this watch
as the event develops.
A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Winter Storm watches has been REISSUED again for the piedmont. Addional 2-4inches of snow on top of the snow.
Now total amounts could be over half a foot.Schools here were closed yesterday,today,monday(holiday),tuesday,(required workday,high schools were already out this week if they were excemt from their test.
Is that wrong?
Is it true that there is one inch of water in every ten inches of snow that falls?
The water content of snow is more variable than most people realize. While many snows that fall at temperatures close to 32oF and snows accompanied by strong winds do contain approximately one inch of water per ten inches of snowfall, the ratio is not generally accurate. Ten inches of fresh snow can contain as little as 0.10 inches of water up to 4 inches depending on crystal structure, wind speed, temperature, and other factors. The majority of U.S. snows fall with a water-to-snow ratio of between 0.04 and 0.10.
So, in other words, ten inches of snow can contain moisture equivalent to 0.1 to 4 inches of rain. Since the snow forecast for NC is to start as rain, it's likely that it'll be fairly dense snow for at least the first part of the event. I get the impression that they're looking at an inch or more of liquid-equivalent precipitation over a wide area of the state. I hope it pans out.
Link
NOAA SNOW _ WATER CONVERSION
1 inch of snow can be equivalent to anything from about 0.03 inches of rain (prime Rocky Mountain powder) to 0.2 inches (wet glop). The equivalency for sleet is higher, up to 0.6 inches.
Not much to talk about here weatherwise in Trinidad, (11n 61 w ). The dry season is setting in as it should. Dry now to June, when the ITCZ and the Tropical waves start affecting things.
Not looking forward to this dry season, when the Sahara dust makes things most unpleasant and drops our visibility down to 3 miles for up to a week. Gets progressively worse each year.
Rainfall at my location for 2007 was 181.2 cm ( about 7 feet ), and the 10 yr average is 202 cm so not much change there.
The change has been in the rainfall pattern. We currently have intense, brief showers with days on hot dry weather between them, very different to the recent past which was days of rain and drizzle with mildew and mould being an issue.
The change has affected water catchment, agriculture, etc., and causes far more damage in terms of flash-floods and landslides on the hills along the North coast. Part of the reason for the change in the pattern is the Sahara dust, which is affecting the temperature as well, causing local heavy convection along the West coast of the Island ( where there are no resevoirs), during the early part of the rainy season ( June to August).
Its all interesting, and is changing fast.
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