Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:06 PM GMT on February 11, 2008 | +1 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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maybe this is the difference
CIMSS mid level shear
Statement as of 10:59 PM EST on February 12, 2008
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1130 PM EST for
northwestern Mainland Monroe County...
At 1059 PM EST... Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. Damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph are also possible. This storm was located near
Wilderness Waterway north... moving northeast at 25 mph.
Dvorak Intensity: 2.5
Additional Information
------------------------
Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer term it is still likely to intensify. Nicholas is currently heading towards the
east northeast, however, it is forecast to take a more southerly movement.
Gales are not expected in coastal areas this afternoon or tonight, however, it is possible gales could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Pardoo later on Thursday or on Friday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is still a risk in that area over the weekend
Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
-----------------------------------
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Pardoo
Forecast and Intensity
----------------------
12 HRS: 14.2S 121.0E - 50 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 15.1S 121.0E - 70 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS: 16.3S 121.0E - 85 knots [CAT 3]
Ivan.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 9:50 pm WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Kuri Bay.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Pardoo to Bidyadanga.
At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
355 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
670 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southeast at 7 kilometres per hour.
Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer
term it is still likely to intensify. Nicholas is likely to move slowly south
over the next 48 hours.
Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, however, it is possible gales
could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga later on Thursday
or Friday and may extend further south and west to Pardoo during Friday. Pilbara
residents are advised that although the Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not
under threat in the next 48 hours, there is still a risk in that area over the
weekend.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 121.3 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga,
including Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island, Derby, Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking
precautions.
Communities between Pardoo and Bidyadanga should listen for the next advice.
The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Thursday 14 February.
Thank you for the update!
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND
WINDHAM CT. IN MASSACHUSETTS...CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA...EASTERN
ESSEX MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN
PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA...
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN
WORCESTER MA...SUFFOLK MA...WESTERN ESSEX MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN
MA...WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. IN SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH. IN RHODE ISLAND...
BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...NEWPORT RI...NORTHWEST
PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...WASHINGTON RI AND
WESTERN KENT RI.
* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY FROM 7 AM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH
SOME SNOW MELT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. AREAS OF SLUSH COVERED STORM DRAINS AND
UNDERPASSES ARE ALSO A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
* SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS
NOT LIMITED TO THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI...THE
NEPONSET RIVER AT NORWOOD MA...ASSEBET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA AND
THE SUDBURY RIVER IN SAXONVILLE MA.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOODING IS OF SOME CONCERN...
OUR PRIMARY CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNFICANT
URBAN FLOODING.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
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