Second warmest March on record; will La Niña be gone by hurricane season?
March 2008 was the 2nd warmest March for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. Over the Northern Hemisphere, and over all of the globe's land areas, March 2008 was the warmest March in the 128-year global record. Only the presence of a moderately strong La Niña event that cooled ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific prevented March 2008 from surpassing March 2002 as the warmest March on record. March broke a string of three straight months when the globe did not record a top ten warmest month ever. Between February 2006 and November 2007, the globe set top ten monthly warm temperature records for 22 straight months.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average (the anomaly) for March of 2008, the second warmest March on record for the globe. While the U.S. recorded slightly below average temperatures, much of Asia and Europe saw remarkably warm temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
How much cooling did La Niña give to the globe in March?
La Niña is a periodic cooling of the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific that occurs every 3-7 years. The cooling is due to a natural cycle of anomalous winds from the east that act to push surface waters away from the coast of South America, allowing cold water from deep in the ocean to rise to the surface to replace the surface waters blown to the west. These cool waters often cause a noticeable drop in global temperatures. Conversely, when the opposite phenomena occurs--an El Niño event, which brings anomalously warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, enough heat is added to the atmosphere that global temperatures warm significantly. According to Trenberth et al. (2002), a typical El Niño event increases global temperatures by about 0.1°C. Exceptional El Niño events, such as occurred in 1997-1998 and 1982-1983, increase global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events heat the atmosphere by causing changes in cloudiness and atmospheric circulation, and through direct radiation of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. There is a lag of 3-6 months between the time an El Niño event occurs and the time the atmosphere heats in response. Similarly, when a La Niña event occurs, heat is drawn out of the atmosphere and the oceans are recharged with heat. Global temperatures cool, again with a lag of 3-6 months. The correlation between global temperature anomalies and El Niño/La Niña temperature anomalies can be plainly seen in Figure 2. Note that the correlation is not perfect--there are some El Niño/La Niña events that do not affect the global temperature much. For example, global temperatures did not cool much during the strong 1988-1989 La Niña event. Therefore, it is a good bet--but not certain one--that had we not had a strong La Niña event this winter, March 2008 would have been the warmest March on record, since it missed the record by only 0.04°C.
Figure 2. Comparison of temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean bounded by a box between 5°S, 5°N, 120°W, and 180°W (the Niño 3.4 region) and global temperatures for 1950-1998. Means for 1950-1976 and 1977-1998 (horizontal lines) are shown separately to highlight a climate shift that occurred in 1976/1977. The reasons for this shift are unknown. Note that when an El Niño event occurs, the globe tends to warm by about 0.1°C, and when a La Niña event occurs, the globe tends to cool. Image credit: American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research.
Warmest month ever stats
It is interesting to compare what the phase of El Niño/La Niña was during each of the 12 record warmest months the globe has recorded. If we adjust for the 3-6 month lag between an El Niño/La Niña event and the monthly global temperature records, it turns out that nine of the twelve monthly records were set when an El Niño event occurred during the 3-6 month period prior to the record. Considering that climatologically El Niño conditions are present only about 25% of the time, El Niño has a major impact on when record global warmth will occur. The warmest year on record, 1998, occurred during the strongest El Niño of the past century. The table below compares the 12 monthly global temperature records with the temperature in the Niño 3.4 region (a 3-month average centered four months before the record was set). El Niño events, which occur when the Niño 3.4 index is greater than 0.4°C, are marked with an "E".
Record......Niño 3.4 index
-----------------------------
Jan 2007 +0.7 E
Feb 1998 +1.7 E
Mar 2002 -0.1
Apr 1998 +2.5 E
May 1998 +2.3 E
Jun 2005 +0.5 E
Jul 1998 +1.4 E
Aug 1998 +1.1 E
Sep 2005 +0.5 E
Oct 2003 +0.0
Nov 2004 +0.7 E
Dec 2003 +0.4
Figure 3. A La Niña event exists when ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean bounded by a box between 5°S, 5°N, 120°W, and 180°W (the Niño 3.4 region) are cooler than 0.4°C below average (based on means from 1971-2000). La Niña events between 0.5°C and 0.9°C are referred to as weak, 1.0°C and 1.4°C are moderate, and 1.5°C or cooler, strong. The winter of 2007-2008 saw strong La Niña conditions, but this has weakened to a moderate event in March. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
An El Niño by hurricane season?
Presence of El Niño conditions usually causes enhanced levels of wind shear over the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity, so it would be nice to see an El Niño this Fall. The strong La Niña event we had over the past winter has weakened considerably in the past two months, and is now classified as a moderate event, according to the latest El Niño discussion issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. There is some hope that an El Niño will develop by hurricane season. Two of the long-range computer models are now calling for an El Niño to develop by hurricane season (Figure 4), and none of them were calling for El Niño last month. However, there is probably not time for a full-fledged El Niño event to develop, and it is expected that we will have weak La Niña or neutral conditions this hurricane season. Since reliable El Niño records began in 1950, there has never been a switch over to El Niño by hurricane season from a La Niña as strong as the one we have now. Columbia University's International Research Institute is predicting that neutral El Niño conditions are most likely for the coming hurricane season (57% chance), with a 20% chance of an El Niño, and 23% chance of a La Niña. This is pretty much what climatology says--on average, we experience El Niño conditions 25% of the time and La Niña conditions 25% of the time.
Figure 4. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
References
Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak, and S. Worley, >Evolution of El Niño, Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures", J. Geophys. Res., 107(D8), 4065, doi:10.1029/2000JD000298, 2002.
I'll be in Orlando next week for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual hurricane conference, and plan to make some quick posts during the week to update everyone on the latest hurricane research. I may make one more post before then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think the rice shortages now are indications the time bomb we have been sitting on is about to go off.
-- I'd say that sounds accurate.
194. JFLORIDA 3:39 PM CDT on April 24, 2008
I think the rice shortages now are indications the time bomb we have been sitting on is about to go off.
-- I'd say that sounds accurate.
With all the stuff happening in the world right now (both natural and political), I'm starting to worry the the Mayan Calendar "end of world" date of 2013 is starting to sound plausible!.....Kind of kidding but mmmmmmmmmm?
Actually its 2012 :( ah no even sooner!
LOL
I'm starting to worry the the Mayan Calendar "end of world" date of 2013 is starting to sound plausible!.....
Actually its 2012 :( ah no even sooner!
LOL
True; I think that the "date" is in December 2012 and a lot of folks (trust me) are going to be down there at the Mayan ruins in Chitenitza around that time waiting to welcome the "Chariots of the Gods" Mothership arrival.......Oh Well, if I can get the time off from work, maybe I'll schedule a "vacation" down there with the family around that time just in case.......
The Mesoamerican Long Count calendar forms the basis for a New Age belief, first forecast by José Argüelles, that a cataclysm will take place on or about 21 December 2012, a forecast that mainstream Mayanist scholars consider a mis-interpretation.
I don't believe that's the end of the world; but, it could still prove significant.
For now, only the Clipper model (NOT a model to go by, only goes by climatology) and an unreliable model, the COLA CCSM3, forecast an El Niño in time for hurricane season. All the others forecast weak La Niña or neutral.
I'm still a little surprised that we're already getting nice African waves rolling off the coast in freakin' Early May. They won't develop that far out with the cool SST's but still they're interesting.
- Equatorial SSTs in the Pacific Ocean remain below average from west of the Date Line eastward to 115W, but negative departures have been weakening since mid-February 2008.
- The patterns of tropical convection and equatorial winds continue to reflect La Nina.
- Recent equatorial Pacific SST trends and model forecasts indicate La Nina will continue through May-July 2008.
- Thereafter, there is considerable spread in the models, with the majority reflecting ENSO neutral conditions (-0.5C to 0.5C in the Nino 3.4 region) during the second half of the year.
-- This all is beginning to sound a good bit like NOAA's 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
Have a great evening All............
current gem global model shows a system dev over boc wed 00z becoming better organized over cen gom by 12 z wed next week iam am montoring this model depiction for consistence in showing this dev stay tune
Could you provide a link for my review?
...I wonder if the "sudden" disappearance of the Maya was cause by a catastrophic hurricane of some kind (a la Felix or Dean) back in the day?
The Maya did not disappear? Maybe they just changed the rules? -full story.
(an excerpt)
Most Mayanists seem to agree that the collapse was due to a combination of problems, but none seem to agree on what was the dominant cause. Perhaps there was no dominant cause. For example, if you looked at the USSR - what would you say was the dominant cause for its collapse? I doubt you could get all contemporaries to agree - so how could we expect to reach a consensus on something that occurred long ago with no written records.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING
CINH. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IF DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED.
Cap is about to break but any thunderstorms that manage to form will be impeded by limited lower level convergence ahead of the dryline.
Downwind warm air advection will bust whatevers left of the CAP in Central Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma sometime before nightfall in the area. Release of daytime heating energy will also assist in destroying the CAP and bringing up those cloud tops.
Here are the Lapse Rates (representing the dry line and dry line bulge) and SBCAPE (Surface Based CAPE). Everything is being brought together in one little circular area moving northward into KS. That is the area with 3000+ SBCAPE.
....Anybody got any info on what tonite will look like....
129. vortfix 4:27 PM CDT on April 24, 2008
Well, the Meso discussions give many clues and where to be looking. When it starts it will be severe right away. The atmosphere is extremely volatile in those areas.
- GBlet, you may also want to check out Vort's severe weather blog. It's usually complete with the latest meso discussions, alerts, warnings and radars.
21/0230 UTC 18.0S 59.8E T1.5/1.5 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean
11/1145 UTC 18.1N 67.5W T1.5/1.5 OLGA -- Atlantic Ocean
Coal and most petroleum are products of what? Life! Life that flourished when CO2 (all natural atmospheric at the time)levels were as much as 20 times present levels. Temperatures were around 22 degrees C compared to 14 or 15 degrees C today. The idea that human activity is somehow unnatural is unrealistic. Mankind is incapable of destroying the Earth but can easily see hundreds of millions die due to interfering in free markets by laws (force) misallocating capital for feel good projects.
Larry
Best check those 36,000 thermonuclear weapons friend.
Ever see what happens when one of those falls off a desk?
Big BADA BOOM!!!!
here is the link: Link
Olga has regenerated! lol
At 2 am PST, a shallow low pressure area was estimated at 310 kms east of Southern Mindanao (6.5N 128.5E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone affecting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao.
lower life forms are all ready fast disappearing and funny thing its only the beginning
as for our oil by 2030 most of the worlds fuel suppy will have run out or be running out
22 years from not i be just retiring to 100.00 a litre
11/1145 UTC 18.1N 67.5W T1.5/1.5 OLGA -- Atlantic Ocean
Olga has regenerated! lol
Yea. She seems to be doing well under 70-80 knots of zonal wind shear.
I do have a question though about how they determine whether the PDO or ENSO is causing the anomalies; after all, they look similar (the PDO index often falls during La Ninas and rises during El Ninos, especially stronger ones).
That's difficult to answer.......the PDO involves more the entire northern Pacific Ocean....and the ENSO focuses mostly on the equatorial Pacific. Also the PDO is a longer term pattern cycle.....with cycles lasting around 30 years or so. The ENSO cycles are only 6-18 months long, and seem to fit into the larger pattern depicted by the PDO. As far as what is causing the anomalies in any given year, I would say the ENSO is directly responsible every time, with the PDO having an indirect effect because of how it seems to be the larger long-term controller of the ENSO cycles/tendencies.
242. extreme236 11:33 PM GMT on April 24, 2008
11/1145 UTC 18.1N 67.5W T1.5/1.5 OLGA -- Atlantic Ocean
Olga has regenerated! lol
Yea. She seems to be doing well under 70-80 knots of zonal wind shear.
Wow what a fighter!
CMC has hardly any development for where 91W is located.
92W near Guam might have a chance
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