In comments on Thursday, Sep. 1, in an interview with Diane Sawyer of ABC News, President George W. Bush said, "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees. They did anticipate a serious storm. But these levees got breached."
In comments to the press on Sep. 3, Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff remarked, "That 'perfect storm' of a combination of catastrophes exceeded the foresight of the planners, and maybe anybody's foresight", and called the disaster "breathtaking in its surprise."
It's not our fault," said Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honore, in charge of the deployment of National Guard troops in New Orleans. "The storm came and flooded the city."
In other words, Katrina was an Act of God no one could have foreseen, and the politicians we elected to protect us from disaster are not responsible for the unimaginable horror we have witnessed this week.
A horror unimagined by anyone, except by every hurricane scientist and government emergency management official for the past forty years and more. It was a certainty that New Orleans would suffer a catastrophe like this. Every 70 years, on average, the central Gulf Coast has a Category 4 or 5 hurricane pass within 80 miles of a given point. Sometimes you get lucky--for a while. New Orleans had gone over 150 years without a strike by a hurricane capable of overwhelming the levees. Sometimes you get unlucky. There's no guarantee that New Orleans won't get hit by another major hurricane this year. We are in the midst of an extraordinary period of hurricane activity, the likes of which has not been seen in recorded history. Hurricanes Ivan and Dennis, which both had storm surges capable of breaching the levees in New Orleans, smashed into Pensacola in the past year. Either of these storms could have destroyed New Orleans, had they taken a slight wobble westward earlier in their track.
Hurricanes are an inescapable part of nature's way on the Gulf Coast. Nature doesn't care about tax cuts and fiscal years and budget crunches. Nature doesn't care that a city of 500,000 people situated below sea level lies in its path. It was certain that New Orleans would sooner or later get hit by a hurricane that would breach the levees. How could the director of Homeland Security not be familiar with this huge threat to the security of this nation? How could the President not know? How could all the presidents and politicians we elected, from Eisenhower to Clinton, not know?
The answer is that they all knew. But the Congressmen we elected and the politicians the citizens of New Orleans and Louisiana elected didn't care about the poor people in New Orleans. Those poor people don't have a lobbyist in Baton Rouge or Washington. Poor people don't make big campaign contributions, and those big campaign contributions are vital to getting elected. In all of the Congressional and Presidential races held over the past ten years, over 90% were won by the candidate that raised the most money.
So there was little effort given to formulate a plan to evacuate the 100,000 poor residents of New Orleans with no transportation of their own for a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. To do so would have cost tens of millions of dollars, money that neither the city, nor the state, nor the federal government was willing to spend. Why spend money that would be wasted on a bunch of poor people? The money was better spent on projects to please the politicians' wealthy campaign contributors. So the plan was to let them die. And they died, as we experts all knew they would. Huge numbers of them. We don't know how many for sure. Since the plan was to let them die, the city of New Orleans made sure they had a good supply of body bags on hand. Only 10,000 body bags, but since Katrina didn't hit New Orleans head-on, 10,000 will probably be enough.
Admittedly, it is very difficult to safely evacuate 100,000 people with a Category 4 or 5 hurricane bearing down on you. There are only a few routes out of the city, and a full 72 hours of warning are needed to get everyone out. That's asking a lot, as hurricanes are very difficult to predict that far in advance. The National Hurricane Center did pretty well, giving New Orleans a full 60 hours to evacuate. The Hurricane Center forecasted on Friday afternoon that Katrina would hit New Orleans as a major hurricane on Monday, which is what happened. New Orleans had time to implement its plan to bus the city's poor out. However, this plan had two very serious problems--it wasn't enacted in time, and it could only get out 20% of the people in a best case scenario.
The mandatory evacuation order was not given until Sunday, just 20 hours before the hurricane. I have not been able to ascertain from press accounts when the busses actually started picking up people. The mayor says 50,000 made it to the Superdome and other "shelters of last resort", leaving another 50,000 to face the flood waters in their homes. Although 80% of the city was evacuated, it is unclear whether any of the city's poor made it out by bus. And it is very fortunate that Katrina did not hit the city head-on, or else most of those in the Superdome and other "shelters of last resort" would have perished. The death toll from Katrina would have easily surpassed 50,000.
Even if the evacuation plan had been launched 72 hours in advance, it almost certainly would have failed. A local New Orleans news station, nola.com, reported in 2002 on the evacuation plan thusly:
In an evacuation, buses would be dispatched along their regular routes throughout the city to pick up people and go to the Superdome, which would be used as a staging area. From there, people would be taken out of the city to shelters to the north.
Some experts familiar with the plans say they won't work.
"That's never going to happen because there's not enough buses in the city," said Charley Ireland, who retired as deputy director of the New Orleans Office of Emergency Preparedness in 2000. "Between the RTA and the school buses, you've got maybe 500 buses, and they hold maybe 40 people
each. It ain't going to happen."
The plan has other potential pitfalls.
No signs are in place to notify the public that the regular bus stops are also the stops for emergency evacuation. In Miami Beach, Fla., every other bus stop sports a huge sign identifying it as a hurricane evacuation stop.
It's also unclear whether the city's entire staff of bus drivers will remain. A union spokesman said that while drivers are aware of the plan, the union contract lacks a provision requiring them to stay.
So, if one does the math, 500 busses times 40 people per bus yields 20,000 people that could have been evacuated in a best-case scenario. Only 20,000 out of 100,000. That isn't a half-hearted effort, it's a one-fifth hearted, criminal effort. We're talking about the lives of 80,000 people or more sacrificed, from a disaster that was certain to happen. By not having a plan to get New Orleans' poor out, the city, state and federal leaders responsible for ensuring the safety of the citizens of New Orleans caused the unbelievable suffering and the needless deaths of thousands of Americans. This was not a natural disaster caused by an act of God, it was an unnatural disaster. In his excellent 2001 book, Acts of God: The Unnatural History of Natural Disaster in America, Ted Steinberg writes: "Calling such events acts of God has long been a way to evade moral responsibility for death and destruction." He shows in the book how countless politicians over the past one hundred years have done their best to evade this moral responsibility when preventable disasters struck. Our current leaders are no different.
The most prosperous and technologically advanced nation in history surely could have done better. Was it really too expensive to have the vehicles, people, and workable plan in place needed to evacuate New Orleans? Yes, the local and state goverments had primary responsibility for the New Orleans evacuation plan, but in an exceptional case like New Orleans, shouldn't the federal government have stepped in with the additional resources needed? "A society is measured by how it treats the weak and vulnerable", said George W. Bush in his State of the Union of Feb 2, 2005. By that measure, the people of this country have responded magnificently. The outpouring of aid, sympathy and prayers for those affected has been tremendous. But by that same standard, our government has failed. Its not just the current administration--every elected government since the days of Eisenhower has failed us. As I've outlined above, the problem is not likely to go away until the amount of money a candidate raises is no longer the primary factor determining who gets elected. Our elected officials won't care for the poor, as long as it is the rich who determine who get elected.
What can we do to help prevent such a disaster from recurring? Well, I encourage all of you to support election reform initiatives such as public campaign financing and Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) over the coming years. Maybe then I can check a box to vote for a candidate who will actually care for the needs of the poor in New Orleans and elsewhere in this county, instead of the usual "lesser of two evils" from the miserable two-party system that let thousands die and tens of thousands more suffer so unbearably.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Lake Ponchatrain in the background.
Tried to take a quick shot while I was not at the controls. Had to decide who we could pick up and who we had to leave behind. My heart aches.
I work for Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries. We are in search and rescue mode. Storm damaged and flooded house.
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Thank you, Dr.Masters.
Are we doing away with that system? Some good points though.
That is the sober analysis relying largely on fact. Very succinctly written. I have a lot of feelings of anger towards my government over these images, mixed with the simply heartbreak of the stories coming from the Gulf Region. As American Citizens, we are obliged to debate in a well-reasoned manner such as this. It keeps politics from becoming dirty when we resort to fact and not rhetoric.
The beauty of America is our power to adapt. If out of tragedy comes new knowledge and revolutionary action, then perhaps this suffering will save countless from similar circumstances in the future. We can change the way we elect our leaders for the better. Our constitution even grants the ability to do this without arms or violence.
This isn't a dirty game. It's standing up together to restore some level of faith in our government to respond in our fellow citizens time of greatest need. You even stopped shy of the easy parallel to draw: How would we respond had this been a terrorist attack, and weren't we preparing for this in the wake of 9/11? I think staying away from that question allows us to really question who our government serves. Certainly not its citizenry.
Again, thank you for your analysis.
I can agree with most of your comments and am in no way an expert able to comment on the past decisions of politicians or by those of engineers assigned the task of preventing such a tragedy. I feel that most if not all Americans are shocked at first then angered by the decisions and response in the face of this Hurricane. I remember reading your post stating the urgency of the evacuation and asking what was wrong with the mayor in not ordering it. That was my first thought of what might come and I was deeply concerned after that point.
Needless to say my worst fears were realized but I had no idea of the magnitude of impoverished people that lived in New Orleans. Thus I had to ask the questions. Why do we have a city that lies below sea level? Why are there so many poor people living in such a vulnerable city? Why should we continue to try to protect this city when building levees to all heights and strengths do not solve the real problem as I perceive it? If it is true that the city is "sinking" at what point do we give up. Maybe it will be 100 or 1000 years from now but I do not see the need in having people inhabit an area so susceptible to tragedy. Especially if they are not capable of escaping it. History has proven that you either move or succomb to the elements. Such has been the case from great floods, earthquakes and volcanoes that have altered this great planet that we live on.
I feel that first we must attend to the needs of those affected by this tragic event, but we then need to ask ourselves why we were there in the first place. You know, as any scientist would know, that this is not a stable planet that we live on and that changes both minor and major have and will alter it to the point that we either move or succomb. Call it an 'act of god','act of nature' or whatever you wish but no matter what decisions we make we can almost be certain that it is easier and safer to bet against our decisions than for them, especially when dealing with matters that are out of our control.
1. Our government was slow to respond, and there will be decades of discussion on this.
2. This is not a racism issue, the people saving the poor folks in NO were from every nationality.
3. If you live below sea level, it may flood.
I am tired of reading emails, and hearing people say, the poor people couldn't get out. "If this were Palm Beach, they would have rebuilt already". This is America, and if you are lazy you are poor. You choose to be poor in our society, whether you want to admit it our not. You can learn how to fish, or you can depend on someone to fish for you. Poor people do not know how to fish, because they do not want to.
I think NO should be rebuilt, but not in its same location. Rebuild the city using the "poor" people as labor and pay them for their time, above sea level. NO's history is no more and you will find it hard pressed to get any businesses back to NO. Why would you risk "this" again. Stop blaming people, we all have choices, they choose their way, you Dr. Masters, chose differently.
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Anyone with the thought of commenting on the "inappropriateness" of Dr. Masters blog on a tropical weather website.......STOP. This was totally appropriate. The scope, magnitude, and special situation of this catastrophe dwarfs anything tropical related. Yes, Dr. Masters was correct last Saturday, just like other experts. Here was a disaster unique in that it was predictable and partially preventable. If one person perished due to some lack of action it's one to many. And here we have thousands too many. I imagine it's tough for professionals like Dr. Masters to even go on with their normal routine under the circumstances. I know it's been tough for me.
How about this, while many of the people that stayed in the city stayed there because they simply couldn't leave at least as many people stayed in the city to take advantage of the chaos of the storm so they could loot, rape and kill. Additionally no one is holding the mayor of this city responsible for his own actions yet. As I watched the local coverage on the early Sunday morning before the storm he was saying he didn't evacuate the city because he was talking with lawyers about if he had the power to do so, now he's complaining that the Federal government didn't respond fast enough. Mr Mayor, you failed the people of your city - evacuation of the city is up to the local government, not the federal government. Thousands of people may of died to do the incompetence of this one man and his refusal to simply cut through the BS and get the city evacuated as quickly as possible. In Andrew it took the feds 5 days to show up, and that was on dry land - a 3 day response time from when the levees broke is pretty good in my books.
Blaming the government will not solve this situation. Thank God we live in a country where people care about humanity. I hope all of us who use this forum have donated to the Red Cross or some other organization.
This really isnt the arena to play politics in the comments, but, well, someone else started it. Hookedontropics - you are ignorant if you think the only reason why people are poor is laziness. I live in Urban Atlanta - maybe you should visit, you know, real life sometime, sometime and see the millions of working poor.
All levels of government failed here. But the buck stopes with the president, because FEMA's supposed to be in charge, and they are sorely lacking. As for the REd Cross, they;d be doign an even better job if the Dept. of Homeland Security was letting them in to New Orleans, which they aren't. Check the red cross FAQ webpage if you don't believe me.
As for the looting, killing, etc. Absoltuley its horrible. But people in a desperate situation revert to their instincts. To all of those comparing it to other hurricanes - theres quite a difference between having devistation and flooding with NOT BEING ALLOWED OUT OF THE CITY. Even Fox News was reporting how the military was turning people away from the only bridge out of town unless they were on a bus.
As for race...I dont think its race but class has a role, and race and class are highly correlated in todays society. And it sure didn't take this long for the Fed Government to roll into Florida where Brother Jeb was in power.
I grew up poor, because my parents were lazy. I am not poor now because I choose not to be. I went to school, paid for it myself, and today, see the same people I grew up with at the same place or in better positions than myself. I also see the lazy asses, still in the same neighborhood, collecting my tax dollars and trying to figure out who they have to scam next. So lets agree not to judge in this forum.
I personally do not want to see a penny of my taxes go to rebuild that aquarium, unless they can guarantee this not to happen again, and fix the problem before rebuilding, and continue to address the "sinking" city's levee's as time goes on.
"Katrina is due south of the Mississippi-Louisiana border, and moving northward at 15 mph. On this course, the western edge of the eyewall will pass some 20 miles to the east of New Orleans, sparing that city a catastrophic hit. As the eye passes east of the city later this morning, north winds of about 100 mph will push waters from Lake Pontchartrain up to the top of the levee protecting the city, and possibly breach the levee and flood the city. This flooding will not cause the kind of catastrophe that a direct hit by the right (east) eyewall would have, with its 140 mph winds and 15-20 foot storm surge. New Orleans will not suffer large loss of life from Katrina."
Maybe it's possible that since the levees didn't break until Tuesday morning that the government started sending it's supplies elsewhere since the Mississippi coast was destroyed. Seems like a lot of second guessing from someone who said New Orleans wouldn't suffer a large loss of life. How about this, everyone including yourself underestimated what would eventually happen in the city. How about directing some of that blame towards to the people that stayed behind that could have left. How about some of those comments towards the actions of the people that stayed in the city. Rape and murder are not the actions of those who are feeling 'trapped' like I read above, they're the actions of people who simply want to take advantage of the situation.
Hooked - We'll be sure to keep your comments in mind the next time a disaster of epic porportions strikes Richmond (I'm guessing thats where you are from based off one of your prior comments) not to spend one of our tax dollars to help rebuild that city. Its that sort of attitude that makes this country a lousy place, and helped cause this disaster. And in whatever school you went you, you missed out basic sociology and policy classes based of your *ignorant* comment that the only reason why people are poor is because of laziness. Lets agre not to judge? Your comment was the most judgmental in here (and the first one to start this judgmentalness.) Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.
A HURRICANE IS COMING>> Most companies and individuals leave, and carry as much as they can. One thing they carry is their insurance information, to make a claim..
Why are we asking the government to rebuild what should already be paid for by insurers? This is not a Socialist society. If you want that go to Canada.
To Squam and those who jump up and say why the hell is he writing about politics... this has nothing to do with meteorolgy..... go %##^$%@ off ... this guy has given me more information in any SINGLE one of his posts (including this one) than you have ever given. Period. This an excellent website and an incredible blog. There is nothing else out there like this. With your childish comments you irritate the bejesus out of those who look to the blog and its responses for information.
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Well put Jeff!!
Fingers are easy to point...just like Monday morning quarterbacks have been doing.....
Katrina has delieved an experience no one has ever seens. People have always waited til the last minute to move out (if they move at all)....Let's save the lives still left, and work on improving their lives and stop pointing fingers in the wrong direction.
I am in complete agreement with Jelloboy. Come off the blaming and help with your money, prayers and hands.
In contrast, our mayor on the MS coast was proactive, getting all he could done.
This was NOT a discrimination against the poor, the haves have lost a whole lot more than the have nots. Yes even their lives. Two well off neighborhoods in Harrison county have just reported a total of 95 deaths, all white.
And I don't even think Katrina cared, do you really?
I work for FEMA and I'll let you tell that to the children who've been without food or water
Sociology = give from the rich to the poor, for the poor outnumber the rich, therefore minimizing the risk of a revolt.
Dr. Masters,
Thank you. Well said. I think I have been saying it in a different way for several days using a great quote from a brilliant man. Thank you again Dr. Masters.
SJ
"The significant problems that we face cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them."-Albert Einstien.
Hooked - Congrats for having insurance. Most of these people didn't even have a car, how could they afford insurance? Its very comforting to know that there are people in America who could care less if people die, even if it "was their own fault."
Mar - I agree that the mayor of NO screwed up not getting the evac order out earlier, but I truly doubt a city has the resources to be able to move a hundred thousand people out in a matter of a couple of days. After the hurricane hit, however, it is up to FEMA to take over.
Jello - I found the story that said the levees broke on Monday. From the NO Times-Picayune - "A large section of the vital 17th Street Canal levee, where it connects to the brand new "hurricane proof" Old Hammond Highway bridge, gave way late Monday morning in Bucktown after Katrina's fiercest winds were well north. The breach sent a churning sea of water from Lake Pontchartrain coursing across Lakeview and into Mid-City, Carrollton, Gentilly, City Park and neighborhoods farther south and east."
This is probably why they were using one crane to fix the levees
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