Chile's volcano not likely to affect the climate
It's been a busy month for natural disasters, and I haven't found time to talk about Chile's Chaiten volcano, 760 miles (1,220 km) south of the capital Santiago. The volcano started erupting on May 2 for the first time in thousands of years, spewing ash, gas and molten rock into the air, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. Did this mighty eruption have a cooling effect on the climate?
Figure 1. This May 5, 2008 image from NASA's Terra satellite caught Chaiten erupting. Image credit: NASA.
Many historic volcanic eruptions have had a major cooling impact on Earth's climate. However, Chaiten is very unlikely to be one of them. To see why this is, let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. As one can see from a plot of the solar radiation reaching Mauna Loa in Hawaii (Figure 2), the Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snowstorms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Volcanic eruptions cause this kind of climate cooling by throwing large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. This gas reacts with water to form sulphuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective, and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight.
You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere, where the upper-level winds circulate them all around the globe. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features downward subsiding air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere and get carried all around the globe. Chaiten is located near 40° south latitude, far from the tropics, and thus is unlikely to be able to inject significant amounts of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere. Furthermore, the character of Chaiten's eruptions so far has been to eject a lot of silica and not much sulfur into the air. The total amount of sulfur ejected has been only about 1/10000 of what Mt. Pinatubo put into the air, according to NASA.
Figure 2. Reduced solar radiation due to volcanic aerosols as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail. One interesting quote from the article: There can be some exceptions to the tropics-only rule, and at least one high latitude volcano appears to have had significant climate effects; Laki (Iceland, 1783-1784). The crucial factor was that the eruption was almost continuous for over 8 months which lead to significantly elevated sulphate concentrations for that whole time over much of the Atlantic and European regions, even though stratospheric concentrations were likely not particularly exceptional.
My next blog will talk about new research regarding the hurricanes/global warming connection.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Almost Summer
Summer
Still Summer
and
Damn, it's Hot
Itsa' gonna get a Lot rougher REAL fast.
ie: Archie,Eli, and Peyton
Ya haven't figured Gulf out yet; don't take it personal at all; his contributions are classic on the blog; his pictures/comments are funny as all get out, and, he makes some very good observations....I remember one from last year as we were arguing about some other blob when he chimed in (in between the Star Trek picture) and declared something to the effect of "Humberto is forming right beneath your noses, yada, yada, yada......)....Gulf is a good read most of the time and he seems to know a lot about tropical systems (just does not express it in "normal" terms which can be taken the wrong way..................)
their still reporting wind chills in the weather stats up here.
436. TampaSpin 6:46 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
HOG i got 79deg in tampa
Wow, last time i checked it was 77 so I guess it warmed up some. Still cold.
Now you're just bragging...it's 93 here in wonderful DFW
ww I remember that ....Yeah, you and Gulf called that one pretty early last year....
One can leave related comments here.
Info aint Spam. .Link
Nearby in Mianyang County, more than 30,000 refugees are housed at Juizhou Stadium - the largest shelter in the region. Hundreds of makeshift tents circle the stadium, but the interior is reserved for 1000 child survivors who have walked down from the gorges of Beichuan and beyond, and who have yet to find their parents.
May 19, 2:21 PM (ET)
NEW YORK (AP) - The numbers are almost too large to fathom, so many Americans stop trying. As bodies pile up in disaster after global disaster, even the most sympathetic souls can turn away.
Charities know this as "donor fatigue," but it might be more accurately described as disaster fatigue - the sense that these events are never-ending, uncontrollable and overwhelming. Experts say it is one reason Americans have contributed relatively little so far to victims of the Myanmar cyclone and China's earthquake.
Ironically, the more bad news there is, the less likely people may be to give.
"Hearing about too many disasters makes some people not give at all, when they would have if it had been just one disaster," says Michal Ann Strahilevitz, who teaches marketing at Golden Gate University and specializes in the factors at play in charitable giving.
Compared with disasters like the Asian tsunami and Hurricane Katrina, those in China and Myanmar have generated just a trickle of aid. As of Friday, Americans had given about $12.1 million to charities for Myanmar, according to the Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University. The group said on Monday that it was too soon to count contributions to China.
A number of factors may be at play in the slow American response, including a lack of sympathy for the repressive governments involved, doubts about whether aid will get through, and an inclination to save pennies because of shaky economic times at home.
But Americans may have also been influenced by the quick succession of monumental catastrophes in two distant lands. At least 130,000 people are dead or missing in the Myanmar cyclone, and more than 34,000 in China's earthquake.
HoG where are you located?
I think he's in Florida, but it sounds like he was raised on the back porch of hell, huh?
Map of 'China: Earthquake (as of 18 May 2008) - Situation Map'
* Date: 19 May 2008
* Type: Natural Disaster
* Keyword(s): Earthquake; Landslide; Natural Disaster; Access; Affected Population
* Format(s):
rw_EQ_chn080519.jpg JPG, 270 Kb Link
thanks!
NATURAL DISASTER
China: Earthquake - May 2008
Updates on China affected by the China: Earthquake - May 2008 emergency. GLIDE No. EQ-2008-000062-CHN
I was actually referring to your need for clothing at inordinately high temperatures...
Now thats funny!!!!
That close to the keys and still Dade County -
yikes....
GFS still develops its long range storm.
with blob in sw carb current indications show a w by nw movement
with some small convective cells building nw of the previous convection from earlier in the day
and a rather intense cell in development just se from previous dev along the coasts off sa along colombia shore between cites sincelejo and cartagena
485. TampaSpin 7:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2008
House i have decided that Obama really does need your support.....LMAO
Not sure what you mean by this, but according to exit polls I am very likely to vote for him.
I'm educated, have a good income, and young.
those are all excellent reasons........lmao
here in port st lucie its been cloudy all day but can't seem to get any rain.
Action: | Ignore User
Winds are out of the WSW, could be due to the smoke in the upper atmosphere from the Okeechobee swamp fire.
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