Chile's volcano not likely to affect the climate
It's been a busy month for natural disasters, and I haven't found time to talk about Chile's Chaiten volcano, 760 miles (1,220 km) south of the capital Santiago. The volcano started erupting on May 2 for the first time in thousands of years, spewing ash, gas and molten rock into the air, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. Did this mighty eruption have a cooling effect on the climate?
Figure 1. This May 5, 2008 image from NASA's Terra satellite caught Chaiten erupting. Image credit: NASA.
Many historic volcanic eruptions have had a major cooling impact on Earth's climate. However, Chaiten is very unlikely to be one of them. To see why this is, let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillipines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. As one can see from a plot of the solar radiation reaching Mauna Loa in Hawaii (Figure 2), the Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snowstorms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Volcanic eruptions cause this kind of climate cooling by throwing large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. This gas reacts with water to form sulphuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective, and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight.
You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere, where the upper-level winds circulate them all around the globe. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features downward subsiding air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere and get carried all around the globe. Chaiten is located near 40° south latitude, far from the tropics, and thus is unlikely to be able to inject significant amounts of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere. Furthermore, the character of Chaiten's eruptions so far has been to eject a lot of silica and not much sulfur into the air. The total amount of sulfur ejected has been only about 1/10000 of what Mt. Pinatubo put into the air, according to NASA.
Figure 2. Reduced solar radiation due to volcanic aerosols as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail. One interesting quote from the article: There can be some exceptions to the tropics-only rule, and at least one high latitude volcano appears to have had significant climate effects; Laki (Iceland, 1783-1784). The crucial factor was that the eruption was almost continuous for over 8 months which lead to significantly elevated sulphate concentrations for that whole time over much of the Atlantic and European regions, even though stratospheric concentrations were likely not particularly exceptional.
My next blog will talk about new research regarding the hurricanes/global warming connection.
Jeff Masters
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I wonder if he Is Ok , !
Through 276hrs, the GFS has a tropical cyclone just off the SE Florida coastline with a very sheared appearance.
Well, I hope we get a sheared system JUST like this one:
just stopping by to say , its been many months since ive commented. :P
Im still with u guys and like most of us, will be more active during the season.
FlWeathfreak ....
because I know it can enhance alot of convection.
BUT WHAT IS THE SHEAR AND DRY AREA AROUND THERE?
And other factors that inhibit Development in the Area
2005-TS Arlene
2006-TS Alberto
2007-SubTS Andrea
2008-TS Arthur?????
I just spoke to StormW's wife.. I asked if he was there. She had a hesitant nature to her voice. She said "I am not sure.... Hang on..." About a minute later, she came back and said "no he's not here." I said "ok, didn't mean to bother just let him know Andy from WU called to see how he was doing." That was it.
I didn't like the quiver in the voice... I say again... DO NOT FREAK OUT!!! He's probably just out with his kids.
Thanks to all of you that give us good information!
I'm not convinced a storm will form
Were'nt you one last year to say everything would'nt form? If not correct me, I mean no offense.
Ok guys..... DO NOT OVERREACT TO THIS!!!!!!
I just spoke to StormW's wife.. I asked if he was there. She had a hesitant nature to her voice. She said "I am not sure.... Hang on..." About a minute later, she came back and said "no he's not here." I said "ok, didn't mean to bother just let him know Andy from WU called to see how he was doing." That was it.
I didn't like the quiver in the voice... I say again... DO NOT FREAK OUT!!! He's probably just out with his kids.
If he is just out with his kids then he has been out with them for a long time...
Ok guys..... DO NOT OVERREACT TO THIS!!!!!!
I just spoke to StormW's wife.. I asked if he was there. She had a hesitant nature to her voice. She said "I am not sure.... Hang on..." About a minute later, she came back and said "no he's not here." I said "ok, didn't mean to bother just let him know Andy from WU called to see how he was doing." That was it.
I didn't like the quiver in the voice... I say again... DO NOT FREAK OUT!!! He's probably just out with his kids.
I am seriously getting concerned about him...
It's too early to be concerned...it's a long range forecast, and long range forecasts (as I'm sure you know) have a significant chance of not playing out. Regardless of consistency. I'd wait until next week until I'd start being concerned...by then, we'll have input from the other models (currently, we only really have the GFS and the ECMWF maximum range).
Even if something did form, it would likely be heavily sheared and intially in a fight for energy with a system in the EPAC, so I doubt it would be stronger than a Tropical Storm.
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W 4N45W AND
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 13W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 47W-49W.
I guess the NHC has not found enough evidence to classify the organized convection off the coast of Africa a tropical wave. They did'nt even mention it this time.
A tropical wave is along 43w S of 12n moving W 10 kt. Satellite
imagery shows very low-amplitude to the wave with some cyclonic
turning along the wave axis near 7n. Small bulge of moisture is
evident on the mimic-tpw product from CIMSS with only scattered
showers from 2n-8n between 40w-45w. Most likely any
precipitation is embedded within the ITCZ.
A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 67w S of 13n
moving W 10 kt. Much of the wave is inland over central
Venezuela...which will make it difficult to track for the next
couple of days. This wave may be enhancing convection W of the
axis over W Venezuela.
..the ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 5n9w 5n20w 3n30w 4n40w 4n45w and
into NE Brazil near 3n52w. Clusters of moderate to strong
convection are within 150-180 nm on either side of the axis
between 13w-21w. Similar convection is from eq-6n between the
prime Meridian and 5w. Also scattered moderate convection is
from 4n-6n between 47w-49w.
I hope he's alright...
I am off to the shower but as promised i will make an update on my blog featuring the current areas of interest in the Atlantic.
BBL
Was born in Pontiac, MI. Watched Stevie Yzerman grow up and play 23 years with the team. Went through the "Dead Things" years, Jacques Demeres, Bryan Murray and finally Scotty Bowman. Much of my family history is from the Detroit area. I have actually gone to about 17 games at Joe Louis Arena throughout my life, and let me tell you there is no more ELECTRIFIED environment than the Joe!!!!!
Hopefully he is just out with the kids!
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/index.html
Give it a try lol please the blog is dead I has been a while since the last entry lol
here is the link to my blog
I'll Be Back on tommorow after ....School
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