The 2008 Memorial Day Weekend tornado outbreak will continue to hammer the U.S. today, even as residents from Iowa and Minnesota clean up from the devastating tornadoes that killed eight people Sunday afternoon. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa between 5pm and 6pm CDT yesterday, killing five people in that city, and two in nearby New Hartford. It was the deadliest tornado in Iowa in more than 40 years. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the supercell thunderstorms that spawned the Parkerburg, Iowa and Hugo, Minnesota tornadoes on May 25, 2008.
The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the mayhem began in Colorado on Thursday, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 48 reports of tornadoes, including the EF-3 mile-wide twister that killed one person in Windsor, Colorado. On Friday, an additional 63 tornado reports occurred, mostly in Kansas. The tornado that hit Quinter, Kansas on Friday was the eighth violent EF-4 tornado of the year. Also on Friday, two people were killed in Cairo, Kansas when a tornado smashed a car trying to flee the storm. If you want to see why one should not try to escape a tornado in a car, take a look at what the tornado did to the car. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only 13 tornado reports, but Sunday's tally of 43 brought the 4-day total from the 2008 Memorial Day weekend outbreak to a remarkable 157 tornado reports. Some of these tornado reports are undoubtedly of the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes for the 4-day outbreak may be less than 150. BBC has some awesome aerial footage of the weekend tornadoes.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado. The position of Parkersburg is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.
Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Hugo, Minnesota tornado. The position of Hugo is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex. We've also saved a 12-frame radar animation of the Hugo cell, thanks to wunderground member Todd S.
Tallying up the numbers
The death toll from Sunday pushes this year's tornado deaths to 111, the most since 1998, when 130 were recorded. Assuming that the Parkersburg, Iowa tornado was an EF-4 or EF-5, there have been nine violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes this year. This is the most since 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. The total number of tornadoes this year is approaching 1100, and we may challenge the all time record for tornadoes in a year of 1817, set in 2004. Could this be a sign of climate change? No, I don't think so, and I'll explain why in a blog later this week.
Severe weather forecast
Severe weather will pound the U.S. again this Memorial Day, with the main action expected to stretch more than halfway across the country--from Texas to New York. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day in Iowa and Minnesota. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. After today, it appears the severe weather outbreak will finally diminish, with only a slight risk of severe weather expected Tuesday, and no severe weather expected Wednesday.
Possible development in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week
For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. It is uncertain which ocean basin such a storm might form in, and whether or not there will be a tropical wave around to help kick off development. It may be that the low pressure region will stay anchored over land south of the Yucatan Peninsula, preventing any development. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model in its last few runs. However, the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict a tropical depression might form in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. In contrast, the UKMET shows development in the Eastern Pacific, on the Pacific side of Central America. Climatologically, May tropical storms are much more common in the Eastern Pacific than the Western Caribbean, so we should not discount the UKMET solution, even though it is an outlier. All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water. I'll be posting daily updates on the situation this week.
Jeff Masters
A large and violent wedge tornado near Quinter, Kansas. Photo Copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of a wallcloud crossing road near lacrosse, Kansas on May 25, 2008. Photo copyight Mike Theiss
These are pictures taken of the storm that went through Forest Lake / Hugo, MN. The tornado passed 3 miles south of us, but we got a pretty vicious shot of hail for about 15 minutes straight. The pictures of bldg damage are west of the worst tornado damage, probably where the funnel cloud was just about to reach the ground.
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You can almost see the begins of what what the models have been chirping about with some convection popping in the SW caribbean.
In my opinion, there is some small signs that organization is occuring with that convection as there appears to be a low-level circulation off the Nicaraguan coast. Not saying that tropical development is occuring, but there is some organization.
Going back to the Eastern Pacific low, in any satellite imagery, the upper-level anticyclone and low-level circulation have become quite apparent signifying that tropical development should soon follow. Quite a favorable setup now for this Eastern Pacific low.
So, at the end of the day. The GFS, CMC and ECMWF all showing similar tracks. It's expected with no closed low to track.
Nope. The GFS has a different track than the CMC and ECWMF. They just happen to end up in the same place.
Yes I agree with you. This is such a broad area of low pressure that the models deviate on where the center of the low is. Some have 2 centers of low pressure.
Nothing should be said past "A weak tropical system is expected to develop over the SW Caribbean and move towards the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico." Anything after that is a educated guess and might cause alarm.
cchsweatherman, on a scale of 1-10, how good of a chance would you give anything becoming a TD? Thanks.
8
Ur right...all this model talk and nothing has truly manifested as yet. I dont understand why. And when u look at it...yes the models show something in the west caribbean but at the same time the circulation is in the EPAC so why not monitor the situation and see if the models are right or wrong. Imagine if this thing forms in the EPAC and stays there.
460. cchsweatherman 3:24 PM AST on May 26, 2008
Ur right...all this model talk and nothing has truly manifested as yet. I dont understand why. And when u look at it...yes the models show something in the west caribbean but at the same time the circulation is in the EPAC so why not monitor the situation and see if the models are right or wrong. Imagine if this think forms in the EPAC and stays there.
The blog will go back to how it was in February lol.
Here is what the NHC had to say per there afternoon discussion.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HAITI NEAR 21N73W. A COLD COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF
16N AND W OF 78W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS
wow now we have confidence ratings on how much we think this will be a TD LMAO
arent we getting just a little ahead of ourselves? but alas I have said this about 10 times today and some dont listen, they are too amped up for the start of the season, chill out, have a cocktail and dont jump to conclusions, also dont ask questions in which the answer may be jumping to conclusions, its amazing how some just dont listen
Even though I agree with your points, you have no authority on these blogs. People do not necessarily have to listen to what others have to say. Last time I checked, there is such a thing as freedom of speech. If people on these blogs want to chat their heads off about the computer models, they have every right. And, if like you, rather remain settled and level-headed about the computer models and want to discuss something else, you have that right as well. Just don't go saying "its amazing how some just don't listen" or "don't ask questions that may jump to conclusions". By saying those things, you're invading others freedom of speech.
wow now we have confidence ratings on how much we think this will be a TD LMAO
arent we getting just a little ahead of ourselves? but alas I have said this about 10 times today and some dont listen, they are too amped up for the start of the season, chill out, have a cocktail and dont jump to conclusions, also dont ask questions in which the answer may be jumping to conclusions, its amazing how some just dont listen
Even though I agree with your points, you have no authority on these blogs. People do not necessarily have to listen to what others have to say. Last time I checked, there is such a thing as freedom of speech. If people on these blogs want to chat their heads off about the computer models, they have every right. And, if like you, rather remain settled and level-headed about the computer models and want to discuss something else, you have that right as well. Just don't go saying "its amazing how some just don't listen" or "don't ask questions that may jump to conclusions". By saying those things, you're invading others freedom of speech.
Oh dang here we go again.....
How many times have you heard someone at home or work or wherever say.. I heard there is a hurricane coming...but that person they heard it from was clueless cause they got bad info.
Everyone is so anxious with this year's season.
Realize how many times the models showed something in the past, and nothing formed.
Kinda like.. 'Fuzzy math.. fuzzy models.. lol
Someone asked someones opinion about a blob, and the person gave there opinion.
Link
Question asked, question answered.
Someone asked someones opinion about a blob, and the person gave there opinion.
Dang straight!!
You just described a wish-caster or a doom-caster
The low (as in the "L" you see marked on a map) will form very soon (possibly by tomorrow night we'll have a low marked on the surface charts), in fact, some 0 hour model analyses already show a low (GFS) although it does not appear on surface maps yet. Quickscat doesn't show a closed circulation in the Atlantic yet.
If it's the actual cyclone you're refering to...
(based of FSU Phase Diagram times)
GFS = 54 hours out
NGP/NOGAPS = 36 hours out
I wouldn't put any money on this storm hitting Florida....with all due respect to everyone in here this storm hasnt even formed yet...i mean i know a weak storm hitting florida right now would be the best case scenario but it's still early....Models have trouble picking up weak systems...and weak steering currents...Lets wait a day or two and see if we get an invest then we can look at the models and go from there...Anyone thats been doing this a long time have seen models jump 500 miles in a matter of an afternoon so just try not to speak with any certainty in here as of now...With all respect to our new comers someone who doesnt understand models might take your "guesses" seriously...
Nobody's assuming this is going to hit Florida automatically. We are just discussing the possibilities. But as of now there's still not full confidence a storm will even form. The reasons why Florida seems a likely target, is because many troughs are present around this time and climatology favors a track there. Also, it's a bit alarming to see the NOGAPS have a hurricane hitting Florida because that actually can happen due to the warm SST's near Fl. But, once again, this storm may not even develop.
Atlantic anomalies
Eastern Pacific anomalies
You're welcome.
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