Parkersburg tornado an EF-5; major flooding in Central America likely from 90E
The tornado that devastated Parkersburg, Iowa on Sunday has now been rated an EF-5 by the National Weather Service. An EF-5 is the strongest possible classification a tornado can receive, and is only given to those tornadoes with estimated winds over 200 mph. The winds in the Parkersburg tornado were estimated at 205 mph. At those wind speeds, total destruction of homes occurs. Even those sheltering in basements are not safe--several of the six deaths from the Parkersburg tornado were from people sheltering in basements.
The Parkersburg tornado cut a path 43 miles long and between 3/4 miles and 1.2 miles wide across Iowa, killing six people, completely destroying 350 buildings in Parkersburg, and injuring 70 people. It was only the second EF-5 tornado this decade in the U.S. The other EF-5 occurred in May 2007, when much of Greensburg, Kansas got leveled. The Parkersburg tornado was the first F5 or EF5 tornado in Iowa since the Jordan, Iowa tornado of June 13, 1976, and was the second deadliest in Iowa since official record-keeping began in 1950. Iowa's deadliest tornado hit Charles City on May 15, 1968, killing 13 while producing F5 damage.
Figure 1. EF-5 damage from the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg tornado. At EF-5 winds speeds (over 200mph), homes are completely destroyed or removed from their foundations. Image credit: Iowa Helicopter. The NWS Des Moines office has posted ground damage photos from their damage survey.
Major flooding likely in Central America from 90E
An area of low pressure (90E) in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Costa Rica, near 10N 88W, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is currently assigning a "High" probability (>50% chance) that this will be a tropical depression, in its new experimental Tropical Weather Outlook. Satellite loops show that the low has developed a very large and expanding circulation. This circulation is likely to expand across Central America into the Western Caribbean, allowing the storm to tap moisture from the Atlantic and Pacific. Storms that are able to tap the moisture sources of both oceans can be extremely dangerous rainmakers, even if they are weak tropical depressions. Already, 90E is generating very heavy rains in excess of six inches per day near its center. The storm is expected to move northeastward over Costa Rica or Nicaragua by Thursday or Friday, and should being dangerous flooding rains of 5-10 inches to those nations and Panama. Most of the computer model guidance suggests that the storm will then track to the north, spreading very heavy rains across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Belize, and southern Mexico by Saturday. These heavy rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding, particularly in mountainous regions.
Since 90E is beginning to dominate the circulation pattern of the region, it appears unlikely that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week, as some computer models have been predicting. It is possible that 90E could cross Central America and pop out in the Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula, or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of 90E becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are low.
Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 12Z (8am EDT) Wednesday May 28, 2008. Rainfall amounts in excess of 2000mm (eight inches, yellow colors) occurred near the center of disturbance 90E off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Image credit: U.S. Navy Monterey.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Its picked up some speed according to some models i just looked at.
Some more interesting analysis....Just put on an visible animation
Looks to me like the Caribbean low is sucking in the EPAC low...possibly merging together in the Caribbean like some models hinted at.
Might run out of real estate.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902008) 20080528 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080528 1800 080529 0600 080529 1800 080530 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 86.4W 10.9N 86.5W 12.0N 86.9W 13.2N 87.4W
BAMD 9.8N 86.4W 11.1N 86.5W 12.6N 87.6W 13.8N 89.2W
BAMM 9.8N 86.4W 11.0N 86.3W 12.3N 86.9W 13.7N 88.0W
LBAR 9.8N 86.4W 10.9N 86.0W 13.0N 86.6W 15.3N 87.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 34KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080530 1800 080531 1800 080601 1800 080602 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 88.3W 15.9N 90.5W 16.0N 93.6W 15.6N 97.2W
BAMD 14.6N 91.1W 14.3N 94.8W 12.6N 98.3W 12.0N 101.7W
BAMM 14.6N 89.3W 15.2N 92.1W 14.4N 95.2W 14.3N 98.7W
LBAR 17.3N 88.8W 19.0N 90.6W 19.3N 92.1W 19.7N 94.5W
SHIP 57KTS 65KTS 70KTS 73KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 34KTS 36KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 86.4W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 87.7W DIRM12 = 75DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 89.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
I'll be lurking of course, so keep me posted. LOL
Check out my blog post from Monday
Obs now is that the banding features of the elongated 90E will ulimtately "sweep" the swirling low in the Caribbean into Nicaragua. 90E absorbs more energy before almost coming ashore, strengthens slightly before moving a bit more northwards - it, too, ultimately running into land.
The whole area is a mess in the carribean. A upper trough of low pressure that came down a couple days ago pulled up the ITCZ as a elongated trough from the EPAC to the WCAR.. on the sw side of the trough (in better upper air support from the trough hanging down over central america) a low pressure system formed and is been migrating underneath the trough. The trough though is now weakening and pulling out as a ridge builds in from the eastern carribean. The low pressure system over the EPAC near 10N and 86W will get pulled NNE and into central america. Another weaker low is situated off the east coast of Nicaragua near 12N and 81W. This low dont have the upper level enviroment due to the EPAC low proximaty. With the EPAC low moving inland on Thurs.. the weaker low off Nicaragua should get pulled into Honduars or Belieze by Friday. Now with that said a tropical wave of low pressure may develop near Jamaica as upper level winds calm down as 1 the upper trough is now out of the way and the EPAC low is now a trough over central america. This wave will have a chance to develop and move WNW towards the Yucitan and S Gulf.. There is nothing really to pull anything in the near term north to florida or anywhere in the gulf right now ...and besides anything after 3 days has a growing amount of error.
Might want to look at some maps first SK before claiming that SST's are too low in the GOM. Clearly they are hot enough to support development and any system that moves on the loop eddy would have some TCHP to tap into.
171. HouseofGryffindor 6:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2008
So now it looks like our blob in the Carribean might actually become an invest as the EPAC storm moves onshore?
Possibly....it would be surprising to see a nerw circulation form over the far SW caribbean in association with this convection.
Iam out for a few gotta take the wife to the doctor. Adrian
850mb vorticity is showing one hell of a mess as well.
This is very broad overall circulation that has multiple low level spins and sitting on the fence right now between W-Pac and Caribbean. This storm would make a good politician.
LOL
cause it looks like one BIG system
the Upper Low to the north of the system is drawing tropical moisture northward toward Florida. It is already showing up on Key west radar as the deep moisture nears Cuba.
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