Tropical Storm Alma has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.
There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week.
Figure 2. Doppler radar winds from the Kearney, Nebraska tornadoes of May 29, 2008. Note that a twin set of vorticies appears in this image, denoting that two adjacent tornadoes may have hit.
Tornadoes rip the Midwest again Thursday; tornadoes expected today in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri
Numerous strong tornadoes raked the Midwest last night, adding to the extensive damage already wreaked by one of the worst months of tornado damage in U.S. history. Last night's most significant destruction occurred in Jewell, Kansas, and Kearney, Nebraska. In Jewell, numerous businesses were destroyed and the town water tower toppled. In Kearney, multiple twisters hit, and a 90-car train was knocked off of its tracks. Wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up to the Kearney tornado, and describes his experience in his blog today. All told, there were 55 tornado reports Thursday, but no deaths or injuries.
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Moderate" risk of severe weather across Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri this afternoon---one level below their "High" risk level that was posted yesterday. Expect another significant tornado outbreak today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts.
Jeff Masters
Photo of the original TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) driving out from underneath thunderstorm. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Blurry photo of the Osbourne Kansas tornado taken while driving. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of Cloud 9 Tours members parked underneath some really eerie looking skies. Photo copyright Mike Theiss
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or simply ignore like I do =) any comment you dislike =)
Would you like a little cheese with the wine?
Sheri
Corrected to 48 and 72
I've seen some invests in the Atlantic with 30kts and the NHC never upgraded to tropical depression
We may see many runs on this system as an invest. The 24 and 48 hour surface maps have it stationary in the lower BOC.
The 72 hr keeps it in the BOC as well. It will need to gain some latitude.
lose a family member you don't know how
it feels...
Well, I do. Also, my 78-yr-old grandmother had to be hauled out of a window in Slidell and go to a 2-story and hang out in the heat for 5-days. But you know what? I am not looking for a reason to post a lot of blogs. I don't have your zeal for seeing my many handles posted many times over.
Extreme's comment was not offensive...it was funny. And the notion that a cat 5 will someday hit NOLA is absolutely correct.
You are hitting the ignore, too, which is amazing for me as I only had 1 name on there. You 3 or 4 need all agree on a blog where your tude might be appreciated...shouldn't be too hard to figure out in a single skull.
there are lots of people that were affected by
katrina and their statements were out of line.
Sorry if you don't understand...I am only here
to learn about the storms and not childish statements from grown people with no feelings
for others.
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
it moved a little north since 2245 UTC
Any significant increase in convection around the center of 90L, and this invest could become a td or ts before hitting Belize.
Saying that, this system is so diffuse that it will probably run out of time to organize into a td or ts before it makes landfall.
and yes severstorm this blog is very informative excluding all the cr&%p, the little I know about weather I have learned it here with: drak, storm, weather456, Adrian, JP, extreme and many others =) O and taz cant forget taz =)
organization is not there yet
or persistence
Persistence I can understand but the organization is there. There already number reports south of the circulation center reporting westerly winds indicating a closed surface low. Also the system already has a high pressure outflow aloft. Also microwave imagery shows bands of organized convection.
Last update yesterday. I hope the old satellite did not finally die (it is 7 years beyond design life). That would be bad news for anyone hoping for a skillful TC model run.
This is partly what got Max Mayfield canned. He knew it was that old and that a replacement was not high on NOAA's or anyone's budget priority list, but he might have been a little too vocal about it.
The other models had similar trends, but were way off on position.
that will be put in a vary good ues this year
shame for them.. the JTWC does it all the time lol
one advisory and its extratropical before the next six hours XD
its still broad and diffuse
its coming together but it may run out of time, the NHC may not find any point to make it a TD or TS for one advisory
I agree with that. Just something to monitor tropics wise lol. Its either this or bickering though over the past few days there has been a blend of both.
JP~ I'd say maybe TS. The bigger the hot towers get over the BOC ~ less the chance but it's also night so convection could get heavy. Where's the MJO?
000
NOUS73 KBCQ 302006
ADMCRH
FROM: CRH
TO: ALL CR WFOS/RFCS
SUBJECT: CR WEB ISSUES
***** PLEASE SHARE WITH THE STAFF ***
CRH IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH THEIR WEB SERVERS. THEY ARE
CURRENTLY TROUBLESHOOTING
Look up some of Chris Landsea's recent work. He makes a very good case is this.
I was looking forward to 2008 hurricane season but with all this going on the blog....its just is becoming no fun. But I think its pathetic how some people go through so much trouble to bring down others, create other handles to appraise themselves and force their opinion on others. I'm just gonna hang on the down-low.
I agree. Really such a disappointment with the 6 year olds running the blog. I'm thinking about going to someone else's blog for this season.
Dang, busted. Knew I should have checked. I am so bad with names.
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