Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:42 PM GMT on June 25, 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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151. crownwx 11:25 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
jphurricane: That's really a shame and too bad that your job is cracking down on internet useage. Another company that fails to embrace the greatness of the internet and sees it as evil. Grrrr!!! Anyways, have you thought of getting a I-Phone for the internet, so that you can still see radar data at work?? Member Since: December 27, 2004 Posts: 3 Comments: 207

152. IKE 11:28 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
00Z ECMWF shows a system forming in the extreme southern Caribbean crossing Nicaragua/Guatemala and the Yucatan.... Link Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

153. IKE 11:28 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
152...added... the 4th of July weekend. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

155. MahFL 11:34 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
I never change my underwear !!!!! he he he..... Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2417

156. IKE 11:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
Looks like 94E in the east-PAC might be upgraded(from looking at satellite)...a fish-storm. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

158. IKE 11:47 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
Good morning StormW......... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

159. IKE 11:49 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
Winds are 15-20 mph out in the middle GOM(east-SE direction)...bath water warm........ Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

161. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
148. jphurricane2006 Sprint and nTelos just came out with a "portable broadband" set up which I have been using for about a month. You get a little gizmo that plugs into one of your usb ports which connects you to their cell phone towers only bout 10X faster than if you were going through your cell phone. It has the same hassles as cellphone: occasional drops, distance from tower issues, varying speeds due to traffic level, but for someone who can't access anything except dial-up speeds it is a huge leap ahead. I expect that other providers will initiate something similar in the near future. I'm loving it. Its like having your own personal roving hot-spot. I have been bringing my notebook computer to work and accessing the net at coffee break and lunchtime. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

162. IKE 11:54 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
160. StormW 6:51 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 Back at ya IKE! How ya doin'? Doing fine...looks like you'll have a ramp up in activity to keep track of.....soon. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

164. TerraNova 11:57 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
Morning everyone. Just to clarify something (after seeing the ECMWF and GFS forecasts), the reason the Eastern Atlantic/Eastern MDR is refered to as being climatologicaly unfavorable for development is because sea surface temperatures there do not normally warm up enough to support significant development until late July/August, and the wave train does not normally amplify until late July. Well, regardless of climatology, the Eastern Atlantic just to the north of 8N is favorable for development. And, SST's are unusually high in the region surrounding Cape Verde. Also, we've had very powerful waves coming off the African shore, one that's already been named an invest but slammed into dry land before it could develop further. The others have succumed to dry air, but take a look at current WV satellite imagery. A precursor wave like that would probably provide an ample moisture shield for any waves behind it, especially with the upward MJO pulse arriving from the west. The Cape Verde region is favorable for development at this time, regardless of what climatology may say. However, anything that develops in this region will probably encounter problems with wind shear to the west, where it is unfavorable for development. God I hope I'm not sounding like a wishcaster :p Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

165. presslord 11:59 AM GMT on June 26, 2008
no terra...that makes sense...and it was said so that a moron like me can undertsand it...thaanks Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

166. TerraNova 12:02 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
165. presslord 11:59 AM GMT on June 26, 2008 LOL you should never put yourself down like that! Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

167. beell 12:03 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Sounds good to me Terra Nova. And JP, umm... thanks for the...um...umm's Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12807

168. biff4ugo 12:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
North Central Florida is showing "cut and paste" hot weather with rainy afternoons. Keep up the good work! We need some water to manage down here or I'm out of a job. One funny occurence is that it has been so dry for so long down here that even with a foot of rain, many lakes with associated marshes are not rising. the marshes must be sucking all the runoff up like a sponge. constituents are asking what we are doing with the water, and we don't have much to tell them. The water isn't moving down stream. Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1171

169. presslord 12:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
oh...fear not...I have PLENTY of ego...I just know what I don't know... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

170. IKE 12:07 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
164...you do sound like one...I don't blame you...you're not wishing harm to anyone. Something to track? LOL. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

172. koneofdeath 12:09 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
161. ShenValleyFlyFish 11:52 AM GMT on June 26, 2008 Thanks ! I have been waiting for one of those. Member Since: June 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 35

173. FLWeatherFreak91 12:10 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
In case an people in Tampa missed this mornings forecast discussion: .SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LIGHT EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. W/V IMAGERY STILL SHOWS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. PCPW VALUES WILL RUN AROUND 2 INCHES TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS. COLD AIR ALOFT PERSISTS WITH 50T AROUND -10C CREATING STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WBZ HEIGHT HAS DROPPED TO JUST OVER 10K FT WHICH ALSO INDICATES STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WEST COAST SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

177. Cavin Rawlins 12:16 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Good Morning: Tropical Update: Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Atlantic Thanks! Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

178. FLWeatherFreak91 12:17 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
#176 I think Target does, but not Publix... but if you want a big selection go to Dick's Sporting Goods. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

181. TerraNova 12:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Morning StormW! Large area of shower activity entering the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel...this is supposedly what the NAM / WAVCIS models develop. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

183. stoormfury 12:23 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Storm w i am awaiting the visible sat pics to really ascertain what is really happening in the central g/mex. there is a waek circulation within an area of disturbed weather. although wind shear is not all that favourable there seems to be a little pressure drop in the area. QS or ASCAT showed nothing significant in the area what are yur immediate thoughts of what is taking place in the g/mex Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302

184. pottery 12:23 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Good morning all. Thanks for the update, 456. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20692

186. FLWeatherFreak91 12:26 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
183 Vis sat Member Since:* December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

187. stoormfury 12:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
456 good analysis of both areas i too will monitor both areas especially the wave the GFS has latched on to Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302

188. TerraNova 12:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
There's apparently a 95E now that's not listed on the Navy page...floater, dvorak. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

189. Littleninjagrl 12:30 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Good morning everyone! Looks like another rainy day for me here in Tampa! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

190. TheWeatherMan504 12:32 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
181. TerraNova 12:19 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 Morning StormW! Large area of shower activity entering the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel...this is supposedly what the NAM / WAVCIS models develop. hmmmm.... the nam might be right for once. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

191. Patrap 12:33 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
GOES IR Loop of the Gulf of Mexico Link Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.) 3 Channels IR,WV and Low Cloud Visible Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

192. FLWeatherFreak91 12:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
189. Littleninjagrl 8:30 AM EDT on June 26, 2008 Hide this comment. Good morning everyone! Looks like another rainy day for me here in Tampa! Rain and Hail it seems. :) Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

193. IKE 12:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
The area the pressures have fallen off the most in the GOM is in the BOC... Buoy 42055 Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

194. stoormfury 12:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Thanks FLWeatherFreak91 i will wait for more pics Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2302

195. Patrap 12:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model (using Wave Watch III) Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

196. Littleninjagrl 12:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
192. FLWeatherFreak91 8:34 AM EDT on June 26, 2008 Rain and Hail it seems. :) We got hit pretty good but no hail. Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

197. TerraNova 12:36 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
193. IKE 12:34 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 The area the pressures have fallen off the most in the GOM is in the BOC... Buoy/Ship Pressure Tendency Plot (Warm colors indicate rising or steady pressure, cold indicates dropping pressure): Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

198. Cavin Rawlins 12:37 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
Thanks SW, pottery and stormfury. If the GFS comes true, how surprise should we be? We saw it since March, how conditions indicate an early classic Cape Verde Season and very impressive waves (which already manifested). Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

199. IKE 12:41 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
197..thanks for the map...yeah, they have fallen around buoy 42003...it's still high though.... Buoy 42003 Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

200. Cavin Rawlins 12:42 PM GMT on June 26, 2008
197. TerraNova 8:36 AM AST on June 26, 2008 Can I have a link to the web page where that map came from? TIA Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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