Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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751. 0741 4:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
741. jphurricane2006 4:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 0741: the stucture of the wave looks pretty impressive, the SAL will be the limiting factor, im not sure we get anything out of this, but it is worth tracking i think if nhc donot talk about it is because their not thing worry about no outlook have talk about area

752. SpaceThrilla1207 4:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm from Dallas, TX too!

753. pearlandaggie 4:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
the CAtl wave seems to be "threading a needle", so to speak, as it travels along a corridor of lower vertical wind shear... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

754. IKE 4:35 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
750. stormdude77 11:34 AM CDT on June 28, 2008 Yeah, WizardApprentice had multiple names, with ''Altestic'' included That SN is on my banned list too! Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

755. Tazmanian 4:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
wait in tell late july then will have some in big to talk about out there Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

756. hurricane23 4:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
50-60kt windshear close to the islands due to the TUTTS presence. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

757. Drakoen 4:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
739. SpaceThrilla1207 4:31 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 so Drak, does that make it the 19th straight GFS run predicting African development? The GFS is on looney toon steroids. oh, and looking at the SAL maps...nothing will develop in the CATL/EATL for a LONG LONG time unless the ITCZ moves north and washes out the big SAL barrier... Do you know how to read computer forecast models? Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

758. extreme236 4:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
You can tell that people who have had multiple names are trolls cause they keep getting banned/ignored and have to act like other people to get attention. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

759. IKE 4:36 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
752. SpaceThrilla1207 11:34 AM CDT on June 28, 2008 I'm from Dallas, TX too! Surprise...surprise. Didn't you also put steamy pictures on here too?????? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

760. stormdude77 4:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Yeah well...I wonder how much E-Mails address he has now, LOL...

761. extreme236 4:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
759. I think I remember that as well Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

762. SpaceThrilla1207 4:38 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
What steamy pictures? You talking about the porn? No, that was NOT me...you have me confused with someone else...I tell the truth alawys...that was NOT me.

764. extreme236 4:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Before you know it, Spacethrilla will be gone and he will have a new name. Kind of like Stormkat. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

765. IKE 4:39 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
762. SpaceThrilla1207 11:38 AM CDT on June 28, 2008 What steamy pictures? You talking about the porn? No, that was NOT me...you have me confused with someone else...I tell the truth alawys...that was NOT me. Ok...sorry...I believe you. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

767. TampaSpin 4:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

768. Tazmanian 4:41 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
wait in tell late july then will have some in big out there Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

769. Cavin Rawlins 4:42 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
766. hurricaneseason2006 12:40 PM AST on June 28, 2008 LOL Let's see. You spend all your time on the internet posting GFS models, morning, noon and night. No girlfriend. No social life. Be careful your eyes don't hurt you Drakoen. The reason why I said that is because Drakoen was the one that said some people didn't have any life, like moonlightcowboy, Weather456 et al. Now look at him. The kettle sure called the pot black. LOL Keep me out of that plz Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

770. hurricane23 4:42 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Again until i see futher evidence of something trying develope of the african coast and futher model support other then the cmc iam not buying it.Might be another fantasy storm the GFS spits out this season.More to come i assure you. Enjoy your weekend! Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

771. IKE 4:43 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
766. hurricaneseason2006 11:40 AM CDT on June 28, 2008 LOL Let's see. You spend all your time on the internet posting GFS models, morning, noon and night. No girlfriend. No social life. Be careful your eyes don't hurt you Drakoen. The reason why I said that is because Drakoen was the one that said some people didn't have any life, like moonlightcowboy, Weather456 et al. Now look at him. The kettle sure called the pot black. LOL Time to go eat lunch. Speaking of the GFS...it throws a slug of moisture on the north-central GOM in a little over a week.... 12Z GFS Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

772. TampaSpin 4:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Porn who has porn pics...........ROFLMAO Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

773. Cavin Rawlins 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
770. hurricane23 12:42 PM AST on June 28, 2008 Again until i see futher evidence of something trying develope of the african coast and futher model support other then the cmc iam not buying it.Might be another fantasy storm the GFS spits out this season.More to come i assure you. Ur right. Normally its best to just watch when the wave does exits Africa. I more go to the models for development in the central ATL and closer to home, like in the Gulf or CARIB. Models are guides not bibles. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

774. extreme236 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
High alert now Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

775. Levi32 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
On the CATL visible loop you can see a low-level cloud deck to the northwest of the CATL wave. This is typically indicative of a stable/dry air mass, and is never good news for a developing tropical cyclone when it is nearby. For now the threat for development from this wave is low at best, but we will need to keep an eye on this and any other waves moving into the western Caribbean during the next couple weeks. Upper-air conditions will be gradually improving especially over the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and with the MJO pulse moving through, these areas should be watched for a build-up of heat. It should also be noted that the western Caribbean and GOM are still the favored climatological areas for development at this time of the year. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

776. pearlandaggie 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
as you can see in these shots, the CAtl wave may be having problems with the SAL... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

777. Tazmanian 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
i smell trolls Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

778. HurakanPR 4:45 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hurricane23- The information you provide about the TUTT effect on tropical systems; is it says that it can either inhibit or assist their development?

779. SpaceThrilla1207 4:46 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Actually...my first account was in 2006. Some of my stashed photos from last year:

780. TampaSpin 4:49 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
779. SpaceThrilla1207 12:46 PM EDT on June 28, 2008 Actually...my first account was in 2006. I have had 1 account and only 1 account......hum why would people have more than 1 account...lol Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

781. Drakoen 4:50 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hurricanechaser2006, you're a comedian. I find it interesting that you care so much about me and what I am doing. You don't pay my bills, you don't put the dough on the table, you don't run my life, you're not my boss, and you have no influence over me. Why should I care about what someone like you has to say? Worry about yourself and not what I am doing. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

782. Tazmanian 4:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
i think Tropicaldiscussion is back under a new name called Hurricanechaser2006 Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

783. SpaceThrilla1207 4:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Umm, because a user with multiple accounts may have been perma'd 39 times in two years...

784. Stormchaser2007 4:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
781.Ehem...its hurricaneseason Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

786. TampaSpin 4:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
781. Drakoen 12:50 PM EDT on June 28, 2008 Drak you left out the porn...LMAO...just kidding....lol Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

787. pearlandaggie 4:54 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
LOL, Taz! Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

788. Stormchaser2007 4:54 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
786.ROFL! Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

789. stormdude77 4:55 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
779. SpaceThrilla1207 12:46 PM AST on June 28, 2008 SpaceThrilla1207, do/did you work with stormkat in his office? You had CAT 5 Dean slamming into NOLA last year...stormkat puts NOLA on high alert every year

790. SpaceThrilla1207 4:55 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Yeah, you are wrong Hurricanechaser2006. Drak DOES have a life. As long as a human has a pulse, he technically has a life...It's just like the idiots who say I don't have a life just because I own at guitar hero.

791. 0741 4:56 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
751. 0741 4:34 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 741. jphurricane2006 4:32 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 0741: the stucture of the wave looks pretty impressive, the SAL will be the limiting factor, im not sure we get anything out of this, but it is worth tracking i think if nhc donot talk about it is because their not thing worry about no outlook have talk about area Action: Modify Comment

792. Stormchaser2007 4:57 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
766. hurricaneseason2006 4:40 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 Just dont wanna get him confused with me..... Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

793. TampaSpin 4:57 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hey wait one darn minute....i own guitar hero too..don't put that in there......lol Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

794. Drakoen 4:58 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
785. jphurricane2006 4:53 PM GMT on June 28, 2008 Drak it has been proven that those who care more about what others are doing in their life, dont have much going on in their own lol he is a troll and is just trying to get a reaction out of you, dont buy into it I know what he is doing and i'm going to say my peace and ignore the rest of what he has to say. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

796. eye 4:59 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Drak, you are only 13, your parents still pay your bills... Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

797. Patrap 4:59 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
T-storm here with a Transformer going Boom at the 1:23 Mark. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

798. hurricane23 5:00 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
778. HurakanPR 12:45 PM EDT on June 28, 2008 Hurricane23- The information you provide about the TUTT effect on tropical systems can either inhibit or assist their development A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. Chris landsea has a great FAQ for all your tropical cyclone questions.I created a storm glossary which might also be able to help you out if you have futher questiuons in the future. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

799. SpaceThrilla1207 5:01 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
Ugh oh...EYE is here...must mean we need to go into Severe Troll Alert mode...

800. extreme236 5:02 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
I don't see Eye on here...oh wait, he's on my ignore list! :) Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

801. Cavin Rawlins 5:02 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
796. eye 12:59 PM AST on June 28, 2008 Drak, you are only 13, your parents still pay your bills... I'm slowly but surely losing interest in this blog. Lets Recap Ppl Baning ppl who they dont agree with blog police (you cant disucss GW here) trolls and a severe case of Alpa-Male dominance Yep, its Jeff Wunderful blog. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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