Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

g'day. Checking in to see if theres talk about Boris and Cristina in the E. Pac. These look like fish storms...still they got organized pretty fast and are right behind one another.Anyone?

****hey notice the title of the blog has changed from "Dr.Jeff Masters Tropical Weather Blog" to "Severe Weather Blog" and now its just plain "Weather Blog"...perhaps others are confused that he changes the main forum subject matter to include all weather discussions. Even this blog title is focused on the MidWest floods. Dont know why people get so up in arms that theres talk of things other than tropical weather...esp when theres so little activity in the Atlantic right now.

Impressive wave but there is no closed surface circulation. Dry air extending west towards the islands will probably act against any attempt at development.

nothing mentioned on TWC's Tropical Update about the CATL wave. Guess they feel there's nothing there worth mentioning. Go figure!!

The dogged persistence of the GFS with the feature next week is impressive even a little disconcerting. A major coup for this model if it proves correct or even comes close since the ECMWF is the only other reliable model that hints at a much weaker system. Faced with this kind of forecast challenge a blended approach using the GFS, ECMWF, and climo along with the waves we have already seen should yield a middle of the road idea. Perhaps we are faced with a vigorous tropical wave exiting the coast the middle of next week with a closed low or one soon thereafter and the potential to become classified as a depression at any point in the eastern atlantic. Being a shallower system than depicted by the GFS, movement should be to the west although a movement south of west is possible for a while due to the persistent N-S orientation of the ridge in the CATL. This is likely the first of several waves we will need to monitor as they traverse the atlantic during this MJO pulse.

All I know is that it's hotter than hell here in Lake Worth Florida , and it's not even July yet... I guess I need to buy more Bud Light.

In the words of the great president of NRA:
"Get your stinking paws off me you damn dirty Ape"

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

Space Thrilla.If you would have told me that 6 months ago I would have agreed with you 100%..But in my secret studies I have made a unique discovery.....The consumption on Bud Light, and Bud Light Lime has almost totally eradicated the bird flu virus from the small city I live in here in south Florida.

I guess theres no interest in the E pac, huh?

oh well, y'all have a good wknd.

Use the ignore feature and dont fan the fools,,, that is a good way to stay out the Drama Club

Exactly, Pat...I would have no clue of the flaming comments here today without the reposting and reactions. Use the button if you cannot resist the urge to respond to the garbage...that is why I use it.

y entonce ?

Does anyone see the ULL in the western gulf trying to possibly spin down to the surface?

Anyone think anything's brewing in the southwestern GOM?
Link

94/24

Hi Shawn. I'm looking at that too.
Waiting for better minds to comment.

is this an LLC wirh the catlwave at 11N 36W

PRAYING FOR RAIN, PRAYING FOR RAIN Dallas/Fort Worth Area, TX

That's the ULL that was down in the SW GOM. It's been moving NNW/NW over the past couple of days

Current Radar...Rain all around but here.

871

Yes, I realize it's the ULL...I asked if it looked like it may be trying to spin down to the surface?

This is what my local weather man says:
It will be partly sunny hot and humid today with isolated t-storms popping up, but coverage less than 20%. The main rain event will be tonight as a cold front moves into North Texas. Strong to severe storms will fire along the Red River and push slowly south. Damaging winds and very heavy rain will be the main threat. The storms will not be as strong as they move into DFW, but they should hold together long enough to provide a 60% coverage of rain to the area. Showers and storms will linger into Sunday with the best of the rain south of I20. Hot and mainly dry weather will the prevail for the rest of the coming week.

So we have cold front from the north and GOM storms from the south....hmmmmmm what is to be expected?????????

Cloudsat of Boris forming yesterday. Interesting is the blue in the upper layer.

StormW.Not only are you smart....You're cute

Chicklit:

I agree, that swirl looks like the type that could turn into something if the shear in the area is low enough.

we should keep an eye on that one.

Looking at the METs from Brownsville to Lake Charles...winds generally out of the SE veering to more southerly going over towards LC. 15-20kts (I'd think because of the gradient?)

Your'e welcome storm

LOL @ next. Afternoon Storm

Strom.My ex was a weather observer in the USAF many many years ago.I got to see Chanute AFB, Myrte Beach AFB, Eieson AFB, And I became proficient with the 27 catagories of clouds.............Very interesting

strom..Storm...Guess I was thinking of a guy name Thurmond..... sorry ¿¿

Such nasty thunderstorms here in Palm Beach county, and the Treasure Coast the last few weeks....Finally the sea-breeze is moving them inland....Lake Okechobee has quite a bit of rain this week.But I am sure the "experts" will open the gates to keep their "scare" in tact

Storm....Lost the man.Gained the weather....Spent two years at Eielson AFB.North Pole Alaska....Saw -67 degrees.......Ice fog, tires freezing, mooses on the road, dark all the time.....But I loved it

Models all over the place

Storm....I actually learned to fly-fish in Alaska....Caught many Grayling....Now I still have the fishing bug.......I fish in the keys

Storm and Melly sitting in a treeeee...


discussing weather tee hee hee.

Praying for rain in Dallas? You can have ours...getting our daily downpour in SE LA right now. I'll get the box fan and put it outside blowing to the NW...back in a sec.

StormW, I have a question.

In this radar loop, there is a light blue streak ahead of the convective precip (Especially evident over the middle of Lake Pontchartrain). Now I can tell you that the timing for that line is about when the gust front was here. Just what is the radar reflecting off of at the edge of the gust front? Birds?

Not hydrometeors...or is it?

Praying for rain in Dallas? You can have ours...getting our daily downpour in SE LA right now. I'll get the box fan and put it outside blowing to the NW...back in a sec.

This. For the past few days, it's done nothing but rain here in Prairieville. In fact, yesterday we had a hell of a storm, with winds gusting to 40 mph and lightning all around, along with heavy rain.

And this afternoon as I stepped out the door, the wind started blowing heavily once again, although the storm turned out to not be as bad as yesterday's.

On a tropical weather note, Boris's intensity may be lowered on the next advisory, as northeasterly shear continues to affect the cyclone. I just looked at the visible satellite imagery, as well as data from the NRL, and the circulation is becoming even more exposed than it was earlier, north of the deep convection. In addition to the exposed LLC, the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and likely the strongest winds as well, are confined to the southern portion of the circulation due to the shear.

The current MIMIC-TPW and the GFS TPW are almost identical with possible the biggest moisture surge yet of the coast of Africa associated with a wave now coming of the coast. This is not the wave to watch for tropical cyclone development, likely to be the one behind it as seen on the GFS 925hpa vorticity. Lower to mid level cyclonic turning can be seen on MIMIC-TPW just east of the CV islands. This matches well with the GFS TPW and the latest lower to mid level wind vector analysis from cimss. The affects of the moisture can already be seen on cimss SAL, and mid to upper level water vapor imagery. So far the conditions are panning out as the GFS depicts; however, still would like some more model support before buying the solution.

GFS TPW:




MIMIC-TPW:



CIMSS SAL

FWIW, all models (except the NOGAPS) have a good area of low-level vorticity coming off the African coast. But still, only the GFS and CMC develop it.

Very interesting, Drak. A possible early start to the Cape Verde season? I'm not buying into development just yet, as I'd like to see some more model agreement, as you yourself just said. Although conditions are forecast to be favorable for that wave to develop, so maybe it'll happen. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

This. For the past few days, it's done nothing but rain here in Prairieville. In fact, yesterday we had a hell of a storm, with winds gusting to 40 mph and lightning all around, along with heavy rain.

Didn't realize you guys got a real storm. Although getting the convective stuff daily, our last storm strong enough to take down small branches was about a week ago...maybe 10 days, in Covington.

Hi, BTW. Familiar with your next of the woods. Grew up off Perkins between Highland and Seigen.

look at the rain about to hit nolaLink

897. philliesrock 8:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2008
FWIW, all models (except the NOGAPS) have a good area of low-level vorticity coming off the African coast. But still, only the GFS and CMC develop it.

The NOGAPS can never get anything right lol. It's usually the last model to pick up on anything so when it showed some with Arthur it was refreshing. I remember last year it had undermined the intensity of the hurricanes that formed. Also had to remember it's inaccuracy in track. Guess which model did the best last year? The GFS and the BAM suite associated with the GFS.