Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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1401. Tazmanian 7:28 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
heh 96E will be come TD4E with in the next few days Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111306

1402. rainraingoaway 7:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Good afternoon all!! Had a wonderful time camping with the family! Wonderful weather...just one little sprinkle on us. Wow...gone for 4 days and back to Boris, Cristina and #96! You all have had lots to talk about. Gosh, and more rain for Missouri. So awful. Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 273

1403. NorthxCakalaky 7:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Statement as of 3:44 PM EDT on June 29, 2008 The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a * Tornado Warning for... south central Berkeley County in southeast South Carolina... central Charleston County in southeast South Carolina... * until 415 PM EDT * at 339 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near west Ashley... or about over Charleston... moving east at 32 mph. * Some locations in or near the path of the storm include... Charleston... west Ashley... Mount Pleasant... Daniel Island... Isle of Palms... Cainhoy... Cainhoy... Funnel clouds have been reported by the public with this thunderstorm complex in both west Ashley and North Charleston. A tornado may form at any time. Take cover now. Abandon Mobile homes and vehicles. Move to an interior room or hallway on the lowest floor. Stay away from windows. To report severe weather such as hail... downed trees... limbs... and power lines... please contact the Charleston National Weather Service toll free at 1-888-383-2024. Lat... Lon 3262 8001 3286 8011 3297 7976 3282 7971 3276 7980 3275 7986 3272 7986 time... Mot... loc 1944z 252deg 28kt 3280 7996

1404. Drakoen 8:00 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Cimss 850mb vorticity 18z: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1405. presslord 8:03 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
yea North...sumpin' just blew down an oak in my front yard..... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1406. NorthxCakalaky 8:08 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
06/29/2008 0352 PM 5 miles NE of mount pleasan, Charleston County. Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public. Public reported quarter size hail. Sighted possible funnel cloud. Weatherunderground was showing >3.oo of rain per hour.

1407. presslord 8:11 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I've got a 200 yr old grand oak layin in a gazillion pieces in my yard....somethin ugly must have passed overhead.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1408. HurakanPR 8:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
It woudn't be a bad idea to have an spanish tropical blog, for almost 300 millions spanish speaking people in the Caribbean Mexico, Central Americ (In the greatter antilles alone there are about 25 millions). We are at risk of tropical systems every year as well.

1409. eye 8:19 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
translate it into spanish and put it in your own blog...it is rather annoying to have spanish conversations in this blog since the vast majority dont understand what you are saying and it is kinda rude. Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

1410. pearlandaggie 8:24 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
too bad the next wave that develops in the EPac won't be named Doris....then we would have Boris and Doris! i guess with the current naming convention, we will NEVER see Boris and Doris :( Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1411. K8eCane 8:26 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
good afternoon all eye agreed spanish blog is fine but dont intrude on this one please Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2369

1412. HurricaneGeek 8:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1410. That kinda reminds me of. "When are we going to have the birth of Bertha?" LOL Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1413. pearlandaggie 8:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1412. Roger, Roger. What's your vector, Victor? LOL Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1414. pearlandaggie 8:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
eye, you had better watch it or you're going to be accused of being a xenophobe! LOL Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1415. HurricaneGeek 8:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1413. That's pretty funny! LOL =) Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

1416. presslord 8:39 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
this entire website is available in several dozen languages...I'm pretty sure Spanish would be one of them Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1417. pearlandaggie 8:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
now, press, that would be too easy, wouldn't it? LOL...by the way, sorry to hear about your tree...that really sux! i hate seeing old trees reach the end of the line, even if there's nothing we could do about it. Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1418. presslord 8:42 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
thanks pearland...the tree guy's gonna make a nice chunk of change off this mess.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1419. pearlandaggie 8:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
press, do you have a fireplace or a really BIGA$$ barbeque pit? couldn't you use some of the wood for those? if not, you might be able to sell some of the wood to offset your expenses. oak is in high demand here in texas for fireplaces and barbeques. Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1420. presslord 8:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
oh...fear not...I'm gonna be the one to use it...I'm just not gonna be the one who cuts it and cleans it up... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1421. pearlandaggie 8:47 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
LOL, i hear ya, press! LOTS of work there :) Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1422. pearlandaggie 8:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
nice outflow on boris.... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1423. pearlandaggie 8:55 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
doris....errr, douglas? LOL Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1424. pearlandaggie 8:59 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
SSTs seem favorable for continued development... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1425. pearlandaggie 9:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
hmmmm...i wonder where the storms are on this one? :) Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1426. presslord 9:08 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
okay...for all you experts...I'm curious about what just happened at my house...thunder, lightening for about 30 mins..then instant downpour...and my oak tree gets vaporized...not blown over..more like split down the middle...I'm pretty sure it wasn't lightening...a couple other things blown around in the yard...no other damage anywhere near here...so..Was most likely it: a.) tornadic activity overhead...or b.) some sort of random downburst....???? Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1427. pearlandaggie 9:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
man, press, i wish i could help ya. seems to me like tornadic activity, but with nothing else getting damaged, i don't really know. when i lived in Dallas, my neighbor lost a tree during a downpour...the tree looked like it had been simply pushed over. Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1428. TerraNova 9:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1426. presslord 4:08 PM EST on June 29, 2008 okay...for all you experts...I'm curious about what just happened at my house...thunder, lightening for about 30 mins..then instant downpour...and my oak tree gets vaporized...not blown over..more like split down the middle...I'm pretty sure it wasn't lightening...a couple other things blown around in the yard...no other damage anywhere near here...so..Was most likely it: a.) tornadic activity overhead...or b.) some sort of random downburst....???? Sounds like a classic microburst. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

1429. pearlandaggie 9:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
i guess it could have been c.) the foot of god squashing your tree. hehehe :) Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1430. JLPR 9:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
So I guess this means we don't need high TCHP for a system to form =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1431. eye 9:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
if it was split into, look for signs of a lightening strike, should be obvious....or it was the wind and one side of the tree was heavier than the other and the tree being 200 years old finally.....snapped....was it shapped like a sling shot sorta? My grandmother had a tree that grew kinda like a slingshot, and finally it got so big and that it snapped into. Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

1432. presslord 9:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
terra...that description looks just like what I saw...thank God it wasn't my house.... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

1433. pearlandaggie 9:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
JLPR...that's awfully interesting, isn't it? my understanding has always been that high TCHP is required for rapid intensification, but low TCHP doesn't necessarily preclude formation. but, i could be wrong.... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1434. pcola 9:19 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Wow, a great line of thunderstorms in Pensacola right now! Lots of lightening & thunder. Lost the power for a couple of seconds. Stay safe in Pcola. Member Since: September 9, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 159

1435. JLPR 9:19 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
yep thats it =) TCHP is rather on the low side in the Atlantic so we shouldnt be expecting a big cane to suddenly appear lol that could happen only in the West Caribbean and in the Gulf =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1436. pearlandaggie 9:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1435. yeah, that dayum loop current has pumped a lot of deep, warm water into the GoM. Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1437. TerraNova 9:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
18z GFS should begin within the next 25 minutes. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

1438. pearlandaggie 9:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
hop on the wavy train! Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1439. Drakoen 9:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1433. pearlandaggie 9:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2008 JLPR...that's awfully interesting, isn't it? my understanding has always been that high TCHP is required for rapid intensification, but low TCHP doesn't necessarily preclude formation. but, i could be wrong.... Again the misconception of the TCHP. TCHP gives you an idea of how fast a storm will intensify it does not necessarily dictate to how strong a storm can become. Category 5 hurricanes can be maintain in mid to upper 80 degree waters. Waters rarely get above 90 degrees due to the ocean thermostat. As long the as Sea-Surface temperatures are above 26C a warm-core system can develop. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1440. pearlandaggie 9:23 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1439. i fail to see how my statement was inaccurate...??? Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1441. JLPR 9:24 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
yep I think Drak misunderstood =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1442. pearlandaggie 9:25 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
alright, it's cool...i was just confused for a sec... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1443. Drakoen 9:27 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1440. pearlandaggie 9:23 PM GMT on June 29, 2008 1439. i fail to see how my statement was inaccurate...??? I was confirming your statement lol. I guess I didn't need the first statement... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1444. pearlandaggie 9:29 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1443. hey, man, it's cool. i just wanted to make sure i wasn't spreading bad information! Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1445. TerraNova 9:31 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
18z GFS Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

1446. Drakoen 9:32 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Lets not stalk the GFS now. Let it do it's job... Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1447. TerraNova 9:34 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
1446. Drakoen 4:32 PM EST on June 29, 2008 Lets not stalk the GFS now. Let it do it's job... Stalking? I wasn't aware you could stalk a piece of computer software LOL. You're right, let's not clog the blog up with minute-by-minute reports on the GFS's progress. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

1448. pearlandaggie 9:43 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
tropical cyclone formation potential... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1449. FLWeatherFreak91 9:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
I was researching some dates of CV Storms and the majority of them form during the first half of September, while a few have formed at the end of August. So, this could be a fairly rare event for a CV Hurricane to form this early in the season- especially if it happens to affect land. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1450. mississippiwx23 9:46 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Oh no, I stalked it and found out there is no storm after 24 hours... Oh wait, we already knew that. Question: How does the shear look over the next 7-10 days in the Atlantic? Will it support a storm? Also, can someone give me a link to modeled shear forecasts? Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683

1451. all4hurricanes 9:48 PM GMT on June 29, 2008
Link This is Crown weather it shows all current and expected shear in the atlantic Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2190

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