Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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1851. Drakoen 3:17 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Most important, the Intertropical convergence zone is from 9N-10N for the most part with it's climatological lift: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1853. TheWeatherMan504 3:18 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1847. Allison did dump alot of rain, however it wasnt strong.Humberto was the one that developed quick and turned into a Catogory 1. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

1855. nrtiwlnvragn 3:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Manati QuickScat website is back up to current data. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

1856. TerraNova 3:22 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The lowest latitude favorable for development is 5N...further south than that, tropical disturbances cannot utilize the Coriolis force to establish a rotation. But wind shear is higher south of 10N. Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

1857. TheWeatherMan504 3:22 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
jp Humberto was a full fleged Hurricane in 14 hours. Audrey had two days to become a Catogory 4. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

1858. txalwaysprepared 3:28 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1853. I am talking about doing damage. A lot of rain (40 in.) = flooding = damage. All I was saying is it doesn't have to develop into a hurricane to do billions in damage. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1859. kmanislander 3:30 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
JP Mid July is the 15th to me. And yes, a week can make a lot of difference. For instance a week can provide the time for a TUTT to lift out and be replaced by high. Generally speaking, shear tends to be higher across the ATL in June and early July than later in the season. Come October, high shear values return to the ATL and shut down the CV season. If you recall 2004 we went for weeks with hardly any activity at all and then virtually overnight we went from inactive to hyper active in the tropics. At some point the atmosphere reaches a " tipping point " where conditions start to produce systems and that tipping point can be within the time frame of a week. That said, I am not ruling out the chance of the wave developing just because this is not mid July or later. However, in previous years we have seen waves this strong come off in late June/ early July and collapse. We will know soon enough whether this one is a player or not. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1860. TampaSpin 3:30 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
This might be the most local subject of interest in the next day or 2...just an observation..... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1861. txalwaysprepared 3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TS stop trying to freak me out ;) Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1862. Michfan 3:33 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Good morning everyone. Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1550

1863. IpswichWeatherCenter 3:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 7.2.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 30 JUN 2008 Time : 133000 UTC Lat : 14:50:45 N Lon : 120:31:37 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.0 / 989.8mb/ 65.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.8 3.8 Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097

1864. TampaSpin 3:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1861. txalwaysprepared 11:31 AM EDT on June 30, 2008 TS stop trying to freak me out ;) This is the GFS model 6 days out....just putting some things together.... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1865. IpswichWeatherCenter 3:35 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 7.2.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 30 JUN 2008 Time : 133000 UTC Lat : 14:18:07 N Lon : 130:56:52 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.2 1.9 1.0 Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -6.0C Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG) Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097

1866. kmanislander 3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Surface low at 30W Link Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1867. pearlandaggie 3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
SAL letting up.... dry air is mixing out... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1868. txalwaysprepared 3:37 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TS... that's better, for me, than a previous model I saw with the Texas landfall. That's not good for nola tho. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1870. txalwaysprepared 3:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I do live in a high evac zone. But what I love is that they FINALLY require builders to cut, label and supply all the plywood and locks for new construction. We moved exactly 1 year ago. So happy that was already done for us :) Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1871. Patrap 3:40 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Look to the past to see the present they say. A GOM scenario is always the one to watch early. Like this week 3 years ago.Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1872. pearlandaggie 3:41 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
shear is high and tending toward increasing in the CAtl... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1873. Drakoen 3:42 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The TUTT is schedule to move slowly to the north and east and be replaced by an upper level ridge over the TRPL ATL. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge coming in from the Subtropical Atlantic pushing back an upper level low centered near 28N 43W. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1875. 69Viking 3:43 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1861. txalwaysprepared Just keep an on this Buoy, Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche Link Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

1876. TampaSpin 3:43 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1868. txalwaysprepared 11:37 AM EDT on June 30, 2008 TS... that's better, for me, than a previous model I saw with the Texas landfall. That's not good for nola tho. Stearing maps do not suggest currently a NOLA direction......but, we have to see IF anything develops...Shear is still alittle high yet but, conditions do appear to be getting better. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1877. TheWeatherMan504 3:44 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Indeed patrap Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

1878. Patrap 3:44 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
nola?..theres no threat at present. Nor are any forecasted. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1879. pearlandaggie 3:45 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1874. yeah, you're right...i was looking at the area north of 20N. my bad...am i the only one that finds that graphic difficult to read at times? (not that that was the case here...i just screwed up) Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1880. Patrap 3:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
I smell a New Blog ,fresh out the Doc's oven soon. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1881. TampaSpin 3:46 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1875. 69Viking 11:43 AM EDT on June 30, 2008 1861. txalwaysprepared Just keep an on this Buoy, Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche Link Great advice that is exactly what i was doing also......nothing happening YET. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1882. txalwaysprepared 3:47 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Viking... gotcha.. lol what am I looking for :) Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1885. 786 3:48 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Hey! Looks like we'll have an interesting week. A few questions: when is the possible 92L emerging off the coast of Africa and when would it likely be declared 92L? what do you think about the other tropical waves we have between the Caribbean and the CATL at present? Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 910

1886. pearlandaggie 3:49 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
TCHP continues to fall... Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1887. txalwaysprepared 3:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1878. Patrap I was talking about the posted model. LOL no, I'm not saying there is any threat anywhere. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1888. TheWeatherMan504 3:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
yea i smell it too he is over due for a new blog. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

1889. kmanislander 3:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Noted JP. The mention of a TUTT was purely for illustrative purposes. It was not intended to be a reference to a current weather feature. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1890. saintsfan06 3:50 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
Tampaspin - not liking that GFS model 6 days out. Good thing 6 days is a long time away!! Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

1891. TampaSpin 3:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1882. txalwaysprepared 11:47 AM EDT on June 30, 2008 Viking... gotcha.. lol what am I looking for :) Want to watch pressure falling and at least get to 1010mb and falling. Conditions at 42055 as of (9:50 am CDT) 1450 GMT on 06/30/2008: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 m/s Wind Gust (GST): 9.0 m/s Wave Height (WVHT): 1.0 m Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec Average Period (APD): 3.8 sec Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 90 deg true ) Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1016.4 mb Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.4 mb ( Rising ) Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1892. Patrap 3:51 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
OKay..some had TD-10 ready to overtopp us here last year.LOL Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1893. Drakoen 3:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
The cyclonic gyre is currently over central Guinea on the border between the Sierra Leone and Guinea. Excellent cyclonic signature is noted along the wave axis. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1894. pearlandaggie 3:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1883. i wasn't talking about interpreting the data...i was more talking about how the colors seem to be poorly chosen such that the data demarcation seems to get lost in the busy nature of the graphic. they have shear values that range from blue to white on the colored scale, then have the increasing and decreasing lines in blue and white! Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

1895. 69Viking 3:52 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1881. TampaSpin Watching it closely, if the pressure starts dropping then I'll show some concern. For now just watching. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

1896. Patrap 3:53 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
From the LSU WAVCIS lab one can access the Buoys,GOM WAV Models and the current and forecasted SST's and Loop current flow rate too.Link Also a Plus,the Tropical Weather on that page is the wundergrounds Tropical PAge Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1897. Nolehead 3:55 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
well, here we go again down in the BOC..looks like there might be something brewing again.. Member Since: June 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

1898. Patrap 3:58 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model (using Wave Watch III) Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1899. txalwaysprepared 3:58 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
1892. Patrap. LOL NO NO... I'm not one of those NOLA people. I do have tons of family in BR and NOLA... but please.. don't lump me with the doom and gloom nolacasters!! :) Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642

1900. TheWeatherMan504 3:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
the last thing i need is a hurricane to hit NOLA for 2 reasons. 1. I dont need $7/gallon gas. 2. I dont want my parents to live with me again because they are a pain in the u know what. Member Since: May 18, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

1901. Patrap 3:59 PM GMT on June 30, 2008
nola people? Americans are Americans in my book. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

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