Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

()

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401. conchygirl 2:54 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
BahaHurican \ Excellent! You either are from here or have assimilated. :) Now try Bahia Honda! :) Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

402. hurricane23 2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Avila is one of my favorite forcasters at the TPC. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

403. JLPR 2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I posted this at my blog =P I basically did a summary of everything everyone here said =P. This is, I think, the first time I do this =) ---- A possibility for 92L? This is a tropical wave located at 37W. This wave started developing convection since last night and has maintained it until now. The wave has a favorable environment with wind shear between 10- 15kts, 28-29C water temperatures which are above the 26C required to maintain convection and a moist environment. But there is some SAL to the north and west of this system that could help keep the system in check and some hostile wind shear to the north close to 15N. This area of disturbed weather needs to stay below 15N, move slowly to maintain a moist environment and fight off the SAL. But even with those limiting factors this area has a very decent shot at becoming 92L. This is the info the NHC gave: A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W S OF 12N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE IN THE REGION WITHIN 11N34W TO 6N29W. And thats all the info I have =P SAL map:Link Wind shear map:Link Surface Map:Link SST map:Link Water Vapor map:Link Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

404. Drakoen 2:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Monitoring some areas of convection over Africa: Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

405. HadesGodWyvern 2:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Warning number FOUR 3:00 AM UTC June 28 2008 ========================================== At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Boris (1000 hPa) located near 13.6N 110.8W or 560 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots. Gale-Force Winds =============== 90 NM from the center Forecast Position and Intensity ================================= 24 HRS: 14.4N 113.0W - 55 knots (Cyclone) 48 HRS: 14.5N 115.5W - 50 knots (Cyclone) 72 HRS: 14.5N 118.5W - 45 knots (Cyclone) ----------------------------------------------- National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO 3:00 AM UTC June 28 2008 ======================================== At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located near 14.2N 123.5W or 935 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots. Forecast Position and Intensity ================================= 24 HRS: 14.7N 126.5W - 35 knots (Cyclone) Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

406. BahaHurican 2:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
401. conchygirl 10:54 PM EDT on June 27, 2008 Hey, we had conch here before u guys did . . . LOL The Great Bahama Bank isn't only known for its sponges, and conch has been a part of the Bahamian diet for centuries. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

407. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 2:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
lol Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40522

408. atmoaggie 2:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Avila is one of my favorite forcasters at the TPC. I can tell you that in 30 minutes of talking to him, that Bill Read seems like a decent enough guy to call boss, too. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

409. pottery 3:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Evening all. Its konk or lambie here ! Sat on my deck looking at some lightening over Venezuela this evening, and wondered what was up. I now see that a Trop Wave passed though here this afternoon. Brought some showers, and the press. here was 1013 falling when I checked this am. Up to 1015 rising now. The wave in the Atl is looking promising. Some dry air ahead of it, but not much. Will need to keep an eye on this one for sure ! Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

410. sporteguy03 3:01 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
JP, Any parting thoughts on the Central Atlantic Wave? Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

411. hurricane23 3:01 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Drak thats avila to the left of my pic. July could be interesting with those impressive waves rolling of the african coast. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

412. BahaHurican 3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
23, what's with the bald head? Is Cantore inspiring a change in WXman hair styles??? LOL Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

413. stormdude77 3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Evening all Nice summary JLPR...I think if convection persists into tomorrow, we could have 92L...JMO...

414. HopquickSteve 3:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Think there is any chance of there being no northern ice cap by september? I've noticed it on a lot of the news sites. Without the ice caps, will that change our hurricane season outlook? http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/06/no_ice_at_the_north_pole.html http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23933477-2703,00.html Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 634

415. BahaHurican 3:04 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
409. pottery lambie??? never heard it called that in the N islands . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

416. Drakoen 3:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
411. hurricane23 3:01 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 Hide this comment. Drak thats avila to the left of my pic. July could be interesting with those impressive waves rolling of the african coast. Yea we will see what happens. The GFS and CMC want early development of the African coast so we will have to wait and see. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

417. hurricane23 3:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
412. BahaHurican 11:03 PM EDT on June 27, 2008 23, what's with the bald head? Is Cantore inspiring a change in WXman hair styles??? LOL Too hot down here in south florida.To be honest i dont know that just me ive always liked being clean-cut. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

418. conchygirl 3:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Baha and Pottery: Yep, you all surely had Konk before us. We are all in agreement though! I spend a lot time in the Bahamas diving and sailing and love your area of the world! Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

419. BahaHurican 3:06 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I keep thinking that no ice caps means no need for heat to be transferred to the poles . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

420. Drakoen 3:07 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
412. BahaHurican 3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 23, what's with the bald head? Is Cantore inspiring a change in WXman hair styles??? LOL Avila is starting a new trend. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

421. pottery 3:08 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Lambie here, and in in the islands of Grenada, st.vincent, Grenadines, and Tobago keys. I dont know why. French Patois ? Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

422. TampaSpin 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
419. BahaHurican 11:06 PM EDT on June 27, 2008 I keep thinking that no ice caps means no need for heat to be transferred to the poles . . . Baha that is an interesting thought....hum makes alot of sense... Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

423. stormdude77 3:09 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hi Pottery...it rained here all day, was a nice day to stay in bed...

424. BahaHurican 3:11 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
418. conchygirl 11:05 PM EDT on June 27, 2008 We have a lot of sailing folks on here . . . glad to hear you've sailed our waters. The weather's been pretty good for sailing the last few weeks - fairly consistent high to the east meaning regular easterlies and few squalls. I don't know how long that will last, though. With these waves as well formed as they are so far, the only thing saving us from rainy weather every 4-7 days is that very same high. If that shifts north or east, we could be in for some weather. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

425. barbadosjulie 3:12 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
hey stormdude77 Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

426. JLPR 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
413. stormdude77 3:03 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 thank you =) yep lets see what happens in D-max =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

427. pottery 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Nice one 77. The wife had me out in the garden, shovelling and toting all day. It was a good one. "scattered showers" all day. Real nice. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

428. cajunkid 3:13 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
anyone heard from lefty420? Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

429. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:14 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
ba ha no ice no reflection of solar radiation greather absortion faster effect after pole melts green land will be next Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40522

430. DDR 3:14 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hey pottery,stormdude Hope you all are enjoying the rain,past few days have been very ,very wet. It looks like we'll get more later tonight. Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

431. stormdude77 3:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hi Julie!

432. BahaHurican 3:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The 1998 weather review has an interesting analysis of tropical waves and depressions, beginning on page 3117. It says in part "In fact, an average of 10% of the tropical waves develop into named TCs each year (Table 10). Normally, the strongest hurricanes originate from tropical waves. Moreover, tropical waves are one of the principal modulators of rainfall in the Caribbean basin (Riehl 1954)." The data presented is from 1998, but I'm sure much of what we take for granted in our thinking these days is based directly or indirectly on some of the findings from similar studies. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

433. Cavin Rawlins 3:16 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good night all Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

434. WeatherfanPR 3:17 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
hmmmmm, none of the models develops that CATL wave and it looks more organized by the hour. Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1506

435. stormdude77 3:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hi DDR!

436. pottery 3:18 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good to see you DDR. I am enjoying the wet, but my visitor from England is getting a bit antsy............ Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

437. BahaHurican 3:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
'Night, 456. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

438. stormdude77 3:20 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hi W456!

439. pottery 3:20 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Hi 456. Hi Julie Hi everybody. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

440. DDR 3:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Cummulative rainfall at piarco airport for the month is a 190mm,not counting today of course. Pottery,how much rainfall have you recorded at your location? Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

441. pottery 3:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
You are correct, Weatherfan. The wave is looking better all the time. Will be interesting to see if it can hold up through some dry air ahead of it. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

442. barbadosjulie 3:27 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Today has been great!!! Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

443. pottery 3:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
DDR, 139.5mm includes today, in my guage. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

444. BahaHurican 3:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I spent part of the last two evenings reading NOAA weather reviews of the "anniversary" years (the 8s) going back to 1878. It's interesting to see how one generation's "discovery" about hurricanes became accepted fact within 20/30 years. Some things we think of as "givens" regarding hurricanes were not known or understood even 50 years ago. OTOH, I saw references to teleconnections (I think StormW mentioned it a few times in previous seasons) as far back as the 1890s, when the US Navy began to be more involved in travel in the WPac. Sometimes I find the archives interesting reading just for the stories they tell, but I also appreciate the insights into the art and science of tropical weather forecasting which I glean. Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

445. stormdude77 3:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I feel the CATL Twave is creating enough moisture that dry air (subsidence), won't be a major problem for it. Also, it looks like it is gaining latitude, which is good and bad...it will have to stay below 14N to survive strong shear, though...

446. pottery 3:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
1 June to June 26, 2007, 181 mm at my location. Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

447. Cavin Rawlins 3:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The 12Z model runs showed the some model consensus with African development. I am not goin to put all my eggs in one basket just yet. The UKLMET has intialize an area in the vicinity of the central atlantic wave. 2night's infrared and shortwave (night visible) showed some intense lop-sided convection on the eastern side of the a lower level spin near 8.5N/36W. Enviromental conditions seem favorable for some possible near-term organization. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

448. BahaHurican 3:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Something I've noticed about the bulk of this season's Twaves so far is that they seem much more capable of hanging on their "moisture envelopes" than those in the last two years. Even though they aren't developing, they are staying wet and bringing moisture to the ECar, unlike last year where even the most promising systems were ripped to shreds by the dreaded ULLs . . . Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17645

449. barbadosjulie 3:35 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good night everyone, cant keep my eyes open. I be back later to check our wave. Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 376

450. DDR 3:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Pottery I'm expecting heavy showers around 4:30 LoL Ok so we're a little below average but i think we maybe be on track soon Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 1475

451. HurricaneKing 3:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Cloud tops with the band to the east may be starting to wane which is a good thing for development. It creates moisture and encourages the convection closer to the center to develop. Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2430

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