African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2008

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A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.

Jeff Masters

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2107. HurakanPR
3:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Wow, Bertha II, broke the record of Bertha I, hope that doesn't hit us in the northen island as the previous Bertha did.
2106. weathersp
3:38 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Reposted from other blog..


3 Hours ago.. Terra IR.

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2105. weathersp
3:28 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Don't know if anyone posted this yet..

This was taken 3 hours ago by Terra IR.

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2104. Cavin Rawlins
3:24 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2074. stoormfury 11:14 AM AST on July 03, 2008

Yep i did look at the visibles and 93L is taking a pounding. The LLC that was so define yesterday near Barbados ahs become more ill-define but still detectable in the SW corner of the skewed convective mass. The reason why I cant discount it yet is becuz wind shear may lift to allow it do something in 72 hrs time (it will still be in the cbbean). But for now it just does seem possible with wind shear so high.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2103. StormJunkie
3:23 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Dr M has a new blog up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2102. DaytonaBeachWatcher
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2063. Patrap 11:11 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
And for the record..some,like myself..have more eyewall Hours in Canes than some have years on the Planet.


That aint boasting,thats just plain ol Fact.
So get over yerselves.

Ya not as savvy sometimes as ya think.

Ya know, that doesnt mean you have any more right to be rude on this blog than anyone else. It just means you are full of yourself.
Everyone opinion hold weight, just some more than others.



Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
2101. extreme236
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
New blog
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2100. jamnkats
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008

The GFS nailed both Arthur and Bertha. It seems to be doing well this year. And picking up system weeks before. Increase my faith for the rest of the year.


The GFS and GFDL were amazingly accurate last year as we watched Dean and then Felix bear down on us. We watched them with Alma/Arthur (or was she a different name in the WPac?) and they were spot on too. Dunno how that model does with CONUS storms, but for Mexico and Central America, we're sticking with that model. Sunny dad here on the Caribbean...
2099. StormJunkie
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2094.

Sometimes, but not always...Tis the nature of the beast.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2098. smmcdavid
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
True SJ! Hey red, good to have another Texan on the blog.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2097. KYhomeboy
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Hey guys....I'm impressed with 93L's visible satellite signature considerign the shear it's having to deal with. I wouldn't be so quick as to write this guy off quite yet. Conditions down the road may change and allow for a more symetrical building of convection. Right now highest cloud tops of mostly North and East of the center.
2096. stoormfury
3:22 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
QUSHAWN WHERE DO YOU LIVE
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2710
2095. StormJunkie
3:21 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Got to get myself to work. See y'all this evening.

Quick Links-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2094. HurakanPR
3:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
As an outsider, that only read the blog, and very seldom give an opinion, wht i see here is lots of competition,(a guess whose the best game),instead of sharing analisys and knowledge.
2093. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
EFS 1000/500 HPa Mean Thickness and SLP DisplaysLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128617
2092. smmcdavid
3:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Well, we do need the rain around here. I'm good with anything that doesn't require evacuation. LOL
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2091. StormJunkie
3:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Amazing how similar politics and tropical forecasting are huh sm ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2090. redrobin
3:19 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
OUSHAWN smmcdavid
I agree- It really does need to be watched! It doesnt take the drama of a hurricane to give us a nightmare-Allison proved that!


2089. smmcdavid
3:19 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Ah SJ, are you planning on running for office one day?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2087. extreme236
3:18 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
CNN just mentioned Bertha and how its ironic that it broke its own record lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2086. TexasGurl
3:18 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2045, 2049 & 2052:
Gentlemen, I love you guys to death. I have been on here for a long time. Usually I watch and learn. You three are a big part of what gets me excited about tropical weather in the first place. EVERYONE has their opinion, and suggestions. Only mother nature herself will deal out what she wants, when she wants and where she wants. (Remember SHE is a WOMAN) Either way all of you have been right about somethings and wrong too. Please do not let the people ruff your feathers, or ruin this for you. ou enjoy TD,TS,HURR or any wave that will pop up into a possible. I have learned too much and yearn for more...DO NOT STOP doing what you are doing. Enjoy each others minds and realize..one of you will be right and take it for that.

Love you guys!!!!

Monica

Back to Bertha...
2085. hurricanehanna
3:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Tampa, I'm with SMMC. If the shear decreases, 93L could have a chance. I worry about the ones far out this close to home makes me nervous.!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
2084. StormJunkie
3:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Too early for me to have any thoughts one way or another on Bertha, 93, or the GFS Humberto.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2083. smmcdavid
3:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Hi jp and oushawn...

Yes, it looks like we will have a wet fourth of july after all! Ahhh. I'm still going out on the boat!
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2082. roxycc
3:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I hope Cantore shows up in Corpus, last summer he did along with lots of other news crews. We were sailing around behind them in the Marina waiving at the camera as they told the veiwers at home about the impending doom and gloom. It never even rained!
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
2081. OUSHAWN
3:16 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Good morning smmcdavid!

Looks like the GFS is forecasting something right on top of us in the next few days. Need to wait and see what the GFS shows on its next run to see if it will be persistant on it.
Member Since: September 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
2080. smmcdavid
3:16 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Hi SJ! Would expect anything else from someone so awesome? Duh... LOL

What are your thoughts?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2078. TampaSpin
3:15 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2071. smmcdavid 11:13 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Yep here is a GFS loop..look at Texas on about the july 7-8 time frame...Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2076. StormJunkie
3:15 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Morning sm :~)

greater chance of affecting me

There you go again, all about you huh ¿~))
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2075. extreme236
3:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I think Bertha has broken the record that Bertha made in 1996.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2074. stoormfury
3:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
456 let us move on sometimes it is better to ignore stupidity than to engaged it. it only makes the offender feel important
now to weather i see 93L is fighting like a soldierand doing well under high wind shear.
you did promise to make your assesment of 93L when you saw more visible pics. what are your impressions now/
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2710
2072. Cavin Rawlins
3:14 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2067. ajcamsmom2 11:12 AM AST on July 03, 2008
How do I use the ignore feature??? Can you use it to reduce the number of posts you have to go thru to read about the invests during hurricane season...Not that I want to ignore anyone :}


yep yep yep
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2071. smmcdavid
3:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Thanks Tampa! I'm more concerned about the possible storm closer to home because it has a greater chance of affecting me. I do understand the excitement about the stronger of the two though.

So, basically at this point it's hit or miss on whether 93L will form... depending on what happens with the shear? Are all the other conditions favorable?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309
2070. TampaSpin
3:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2063. Patrap 11:11 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Wow....maybe look in the mirror....lol
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2069. StormJunkie
3:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2034.

124.6
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16821
2068. extreme236
3:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Well Bertha looks to give a nice boost to the ACE since it looks to be around for at least a week.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2067. ajcamsmom2
3:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
How do I use the ignore feature??? Can you use it to reduce the number of posts you have to go thru to read about the invests during hurricane season...Not that I want to ignore anyone :}
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492
2066. Cavin Rawlins
3:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2056. fire635 11:09 AM AST on July 03, 2008
Can anyone recall if Bertha set the record? I can't remember what the record was for eastern Atlantic formations this time of year


According to the 1st 2 weeks of July.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2065. Floodman
3:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2057. smmcdavid

You're right...modeling indicates it'll be dead in 2-3 days
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
2062. IKE
3:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
From the latest discussion on Bertha...

"Bertha is located to the south of a mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic and model guidance is in fairly good agreement
on a continued west-northwestward track during the next 2-3 days.
Thereafter...the models suggest that Bertha will approach a
weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The
GFS...HWRF...and GFDL models therefore show a northwestward turn
late in the forecast period. The new official forecast is a little
faster and north of the previous track and is close to a consensus

of the GFDL...GFS...HWRF...and ECMWF models."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2061. TampaSpin
3:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2057. smmcdavid 11:09 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Shear has been decreasing in its path.....but, most is worried about a storm that is 2 weeks out.......LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
2059. weathersp
3:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Good Morning All! Now don't everybody get rattled by one or two people.. Mark it, leave it alone and get back to the weather.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2058. extreme236
3:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2055.

LOL Faux News
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2057. smmcdavid
3:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Good morning all...

It looks like everyone needs to take a few deep breaths and relax!

My understanding is that there is too much shear for 93L to develop at this point... am I wrong?
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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