African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution
A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.
Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.
California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Guys, I'll be right back. My fiance is throwing up again! Be back in 5 or 10 minutes from now.
JFV is going to be a daddy...Congrats dude. I am just finally happy that he ended a post with a period (.)
Jp my magic 8 ball predicted 93l.
If I'm not mistaken, 93L is the CATL wave w/a circulation...it's survived up til now.
Oh your referring to the Gabby pre-cursor! Sorry, I thought you were referring to when it was a cyclone. I was gonna say, I don't remember 40 knots of shear over it as a cyclone lol
Models are pointing around southern Florida.Probaly will change every update though.I think the East Coast of Florida and ALL of the Gulf Of Mexico States have the chance to be at risk.
Geoff, a friendly reminder...
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban. hehehe
1051. LMFAO! NOW we know WHY they're engaged! ;]
With a child on the way~~~~~JFV marry that woman!
All sorts of rotten non-weather comments come to mind...nah. Restraint wins out...this time.
Well the SHIPS can be good for intensity forecasts although it is all too often too bullish for invests.
1060.
JLPR that is a good point. Subtropical systems tend to do better with shear than tropical ones.
1043. TheWeatherMan504 7:30 PM CDT on July 02, 2008
Jp my magic 8 ball predicted 93l.
If I'm not mistaken, 93L is the CATL wave w/a circulation...it's survived up til now.
i know im jus saying my 8 ball predicted that invest to form.
93L is RIP! That is, unless, it keeps a small, tidy bowl swirl feature to it near the surface for regeneration after the diminishing winds pass through. And, that's a stretch even imo! Sure, it's fun to watch and speculate, but it's not likely to ever become much. 92L, on the other hand, has the potential to become the first hurricane of the season.
92L will affect no one but WU bloggers. 93L is more of a concern, but that 30 knots of shear........tough to beat.
that was mt thinking exactly =)
I think the L should be reclassified to mean "LONG TIME TO DO ANYTHING!"
Jk:-)
Us? No clue.
jpr nice to see u comrade...what do u think about 93L?
well it started to look interesting yesterday but wind shear should tear it apart soon =P
93L options are:
stalling: then the shear would go down in front of it
surviving: pass through the shear and pray for some regeneration
dying: lol I don't have to explain this one =D
but if 93L had better conditions it could have become a TS or even a cane
but this little systems are good at strengthening fast but they tend to get ripped apart quickly by hostile conditions (there are exceptions)=P
also i beleive after the intial robust dev. 92l should weaken off some after that if it recurves out to sea
if it heads more west and curves later then all bets are off
i got a feelin 92l is not gonna play by the rules and gonna pull of many tricks in its long track
Ultraviolet
Ultraviolet Forecast
UV Index: 11
Exposure Risk: Extreme
i got that from kcra
I'm back folks! Sorry about that IKE.
It's OK.....hope your lady is better.
1073. Ike, I didn't say 92L would effect anyone. I just said it had the potential to become the first hurricane of the season. 93L will RIP, ****poooof****!
Genies still exist after going **poof** =)
Not saying 93L will amount to anything. My opinion is also that it will get ripped up. But if ANYTHING survives.....it will have to be watched as it moves into the MJO pulse. Anything and everything in the western Caribbean and GOM will have to be watched over the next 2 weeks.
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