African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2008

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A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.

Jeff Masters

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2007. Drakoen
2:51 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
2002. Weather456 2:50 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
True colors


Yep someone is showing their true colors. Honestly I can't stand it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29902
2006. moonlightcowboy
9:50 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Verbal ping pong! Ugh, here we go. Where are the mature folks? Good grief! Crap like all that just kills good tropical discussion.

Y'all have fun kiddies!

MLC <--------------------- O U T!

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2005. StormJunkie
2:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Morning all :~)
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2004. TampaSpin
10:49 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1991. fire635 10:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

I think it is something else that develops but, the timing seems to be about the timing of 93L
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2003. MTCseadrifter
2:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I love this blog! Soooo entertaining!
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2002. Weather456
10:49 AM AST on July 03, 2008
True colors
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2001. TampaSpin
10:49 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
wrong pic earlier...sorry.
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2000. Floodman
9:43 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
1991. fire635

It's something else; GFS shows 93L dead in 54-60 hours
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1999. Patrap
9:47 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Dissed by a 13 year Old..LOL

Im going to send myself a sympathy Card..

LSU ESL..Link



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1998. TampaSpin
10:46 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
If you all want to listen to funny sports talk radio check this out.620sportsanimal
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1997. Patrap
9:42 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Recent GOES SST Weekly Composite Imagery Links
GOES SST/SSH images for 7/1/2008 Link
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1995. hurricanehanna
2:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Everybody make nice....tomorrow is Independence Day. Not just a holiday, but a day to remember our freedom - including our freedom to express opnions as we are doing here. Remember those who fought and died to make this happen. Sorry - I juvt love this holiday.
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1994. Drakoen
2:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1988. tornadofan 2:42 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Does everyone have to copy Patrap's quotes? I ignored him but still have to read it when you do that.


That is a good idea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29902
1991. fire635
10:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Hey all.. is the GFL showing 93L becoming such a storm in the gulf? Or is it forecasting something else to pop up?
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1990. Patrap
9:42 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
The GFSx has a wild scenario for the Wave/Invest.
Interesting that it takes her west into the GOM
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1989. conchygirl
10:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
I see several in here (who actually post quite informative data) may get sent to their rooms soon.
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1988. tornadofan
2:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Does everyone have to copy Patrap's quotes? I ignored him but still have to read it when you do that.
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1986. extreme236
2:41 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
TS Douglas has now been downgraded to a tropical depression in the EPAC.
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1985. Patrap
9:40 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA)
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) Link
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1984. txalwaysprepared
2:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1957. Patrap... I'm waiting see more runs on the "Texas blob" :)
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1983. extreme236
2:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1979.

Guess Bertha isn't as bogus as you said it was LOL
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1981. Weather456
10:38 AM AST on July 03, 2008
1973. TerraNova 10:38 AM AST on July 03, 2008

lol...nope

all of a sudden I'm seeing the handle "hurricaneseason20066" rediculing others. Didnt happen b4. Atleast wid "eye" or stormkat they was around a good while now.
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1980. Patrap
9:39 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
I dont actually give a ratts Boootey..LOL

But the italicized reposting is sooooo er, Flattering.
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1978. hurricanehanna
2:36 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Fresca and Crown!
I personally love to read this blog and keep up with what is happening. Too darn hot outside!
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1976. Patrap
9:37 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
GOES WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link
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1975. Drakoen
2:37 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1967. Patrap 2:36 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
When you lil guys get a real blog and spend some time there...maybe one day the Good Dr. Masters will post a Link to your Lil Blogs one day.

Till then,..just post ya lil stuff and get a grip.

LOL



I don't really find that funny.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29902
1974. Weather456
10:36 AM AST on July 03, 2008
1963. Patrap 10:33 AM AST on July 03, 2008
Take a walk 456.


I am a weather geek, that is against the rules.
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1973. TerraNova
9:36 AM EST on July 03, 2008
1964. Weather456 9:35 AM EST on July 03, 2008

What? You better not be talking about me. ;)
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1972. extreme236
2:37 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1961.

There is clearly no circulation there, meaning an open wave.
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1971. JRRP
2:33 PM GMT on Julio 03, 2008
93L is moving W or WNW ??
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1970. Patrap
9:36 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
4 panel WV Loop ,Zoomed to Se. La. Link
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1968. roxycc
2:32 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
What is supposed to come ashore in TX next week? Swamp thing or the creature from the black lagoon?
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
1964. Weather456
10:32 AM AST on July 03, 2008
Tropical Depression 2 & 93L


And I'm gonna be honest. Somebody is trying to get people off the blog, and its becuz they lack the same interest as others. Just my observation.
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1962. Floodman
9:31 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Howdy, Bertha...

Morning, folks...amI mistaken, or did I see the grandaddy of the "stroms" in here last night (I read the backblog)...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1961. TampaSpin
10:32 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Does not appear an open wave now..look.
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1960. Drakoen
2:32 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1954. Weather456 2:32 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1929. Patrap 10:23 AM AST on July 03, 2008
Ya'll really need to go outside.

I cannot help but notice but that is the samething hurricaneseason2006 said to you yesterday or so. If he/she was wrong why prolong it?


likes drama.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29902
1959. extreme236
2:31 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1952.

We already have Bertha according to the 12Z Model run lol
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1958. Stormchaser2007
2:31 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Ok im all for warning people about the GFS storm......but can you guys PLEASE stop posting it its been posted like 6 times!
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
1957. Patrap
9:30 AM CDT on July 03, 2008


The UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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