African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2008

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A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.

Jeff Masters

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1757. weathermanwannabe
8:43 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1747. BahaHurican 8:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008 Again, great for "public" comsumption and awareness, and, if you get the "weather bug" like I did (even if you got it from TWC), you dig deeper and end up here...Lol
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1756. Tazmanian
5:41 AM PDT on July 03, 2008
i dont like the mode runs for 93L
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1754. conchygirl
8:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
I too have no problem with TWC. I watch the tropical update a lot during the active part of the season and for the most part good information provided.
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1753. bethie
8:38 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
TWC ---Our Hurricane Authority, huh?

I want to know exactally what travel plans Jim Cantore has scheduled for the next seven days !!

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1752. melwerle
12:41 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I had a talk with hubby after watching the stuff on here and then watching the weather channel...kept asking "why aren't they mentioning THAT area...etc"...he said it was so they didn't put people in a panic...maybe, maybe not. I don't hate the weather channel...I just seem to get a lot more information here. The only thing I DON'T like is that they changed the music for their Tropical Update portion...I don't like the new song...
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1751. presslord
8:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
ah...WU has done a pretty good job of commercializing weather....it's not an inherently bad thing.....
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1748. FLWeatherFreak91
8:41 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Cantore is the one who bothers me personally. He is the pinnacle of over-exaggeration when it comes to weather events.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1747. BahaHurican
8:33 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
The thing with TWC is that their hurricane coverage seems so . . . minute once u start doing more reading and finding info for yourself. So I figure at least part of the reaction here is that we've "moved beyond" what they offer.

Unfortunately, another part is that there seems to be less effort put into presenting the real "weather" of the tropics these days. There's little genuine information in what is presented. When TWC started talking about tropical weather in the late 80s, this is what used to annoy me. They'd say things like "there's a hurricane out there in the Atlantic, but it's not going to affect the US, so don't worry about it". Meanwhile I'm sitting in my dorm room thinking, "is it going to hit the Bahamas? How strong is it? Where's it headed?" Coming from an area where hurricanes were taken seriously as a matter of course, this attitude seemed quite frivolous.

After hurricanes Hugo and Andrew, things improved somewhat. Since 2005, though, they've gone back to that "glossing" approach which brushes off everything rather than provide the interesting features of the weather. I wonder if it had anything to do with the arrival of "Abrams & Bettes" and other "shows" of that ilk. . . .
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1746. TampaSpin
8:39 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
JP jump on the band wagon with the RAYS my friend....they are going to be very tuff for years to come.....
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1745. pearlandaggie
12:40 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
i will say "props to Dr. Lyons". they should definitely make more use of his expertise.
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1743. weathermanwannabe
8:33 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1737. DestinJeff 8:32 AM EDT on July 03, 2008 I agree; to their credit, and while many here might consider it to be "commercialized weather", TWC has helped created a new generation of weather enthusiasts, they create a better public awareness of canes and severe weather events, and many of their experts (Dr. Lyons and others) are really not bad at all......With the potential for destruction from severe weather events, the media, and particularly TWC, is a great asset for the general public......
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1742. pearlandaggie
12:34 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
i don't think it has anything to do with adherence to a cultural fad. rather, people have become disturbed by the over-the-top fearmongering and rampant commercialization of the programming. sending someone out in the driving wind and rain with debris flying around is only meant to accomplish one thing--sensationalizing the news event.

i view it the same as the difference between the old MTV and today's MTV...where's the music? LOL
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1741. extreme236
12:37 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I think with the TWC, people have a problem with them here because we look at these conditions and we see the satellite imagery, then we watch the TWC and they start making up unfavorable conditions that we know don't exist. I've seen them do that before.
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1739. TampaSpin
8:35 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1737. DestinJeff 8:32 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Only on this blog is it cool it seems. They actually provide a good service to a very large audience.......just not those in this blog that think they know more.
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1738. FLWeatherFreak91
8:34 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1737. DestinJeff 8:32 AM EDT on July 03, 2008 Hide this comment.
it seems like the attitude toward TWC is like suddenly waking up one day and teenagers are saying "MySpace is crap because..." then other teens have to also say that, lest they be uncool.

When did TWC hating become so cool?


mySpace is crap- Facebook is much better lmao
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1736. TampaSpin
8:25 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
93L is still under 30kts of shear but it is hanging on......shear is relaxing and if it continues we could have a problem coming very soon.
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1735. TerraNova
7:23 AM EST on July 03, 2008
1731. BahaHurican 7:20 AM EST on July 03, 2008
1687. Weather456 7:04 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
But we really need a good floater from the NHC. They should work in collaboration with EUMETSAT.


My thoughts exactly. I don't know why they don't. Or maybe they do, but don't make that info available to the public.


I don't they're allowed to display METEOSAT/EUMETSAT data at more than 6 hour intervals. The NASA/GOES satellite imagery displays this message when you try to view global imagery:

Note: By international agreement, we are only allowed to show Meteosat data once every six hours. Meteosat provides coverage for Europe and Africa.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1733. OUSHAWN
12:20 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
I believe the GOM will be interesting to watch today. Looks like there may be a hint of a circulation trying to form out there right now and appears this has now broken itself off from what was left of the old front. I know shear is still high out there but you never know. I may have to celebrate my holiday eating crow...lol.
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1732. JRRP
12:23 PM GMT on Julio 03, 2008
i think looks more impressive
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1731. BahaHurican
8:13 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1687. Weather456 7:04 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
But we really need a good floater from the NHC. They should work in collaboration with EUMETSAT.



My thoughts exactly. I don't know why they don't. Or maybe they do, but don't make that info available to the public.
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1730. TerraNova
7:15 AM EST on July 03, 2008
The latest TRMM scan of TD #2 reveals banding features to the east and south of the center, with heavy rainfall spreading outwards from the COC. Unfortunely, the current scan missed the actual center.

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1729. JRRP
12:16 PM GMT on Julio 03, 2008
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1728. cajunkid
12:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
1725. yep! I hope something can churn this 90 degree water before something with a real chance for development taps into it.
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1727. 0741
12:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
we have two area to watch during long weekend but i wont be home no comp untill sunday night let see how long high stay strong for 92l and see what 93l do too that one closer
1725. FLWeatherFreak91
8:11 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Re: 1723

Something's gotta give eventually.... Just wait 'til there's no shear
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1724. weathermanwannabe
8:05 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Good Morning......The language below from the NHC TWD for this morning is a great "primer" on the issue of persistant convection before a wave, or blob, can get classified as a tropical depression or storm.....Remember it as we watch for cyclogenisis over the next several weeks..................

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
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1723. cajunkid
12:05 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
FLWeatherFreak91, Yes...the gulf has me a little worried right now. Looks like we are going to get a flood. Here is the scientific discussion for my area as of this morning:


Main concern in the extended forecast is continued GFS depiction
of a strong tropical wave moving inland across Texas by
Tuesday or Wednesday...with an associated slug of very high precipitable waters
pushing into Texas and Louisiana. Latest GFS run even develops a
closed circulation with this system. On the other hand...European model (ecmwf)
shows a much weaker inverted trough located further to the west.
Due to the continued high uncertainty...have nudged up probability of precipitation only
slightly towards the end of the period and kept temperatures near
climatology....and leaned towards the European model (ecmwf) for most other weather
parameters during the extended. Should the GFS solution pan
out...even higher probability of precipitation along with lower temperatures will be needed for
the end of the forecast period.

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1722. melwerle
12:07 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Wow - just woke up and popped on TWC...heard that too "lots of things favorable for it not to develop"...then saw two other things on the WU map...looks like things are heating up a bit (thank you, Captain Obvious).
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1719. FLWeatherFreak91
8:03 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Well, whatever happens to 93, one thing is for sure: It will pump yet even more moisture into the Gulf. I think that's where we'll eventually see the first storm that will affect the US this season.
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1718. conchygirl
8:01 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Should be another interesting day of weather watching.

Dark and cloudy here in Melbourne, FL and more rain on the way.
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1717. HurricaneGeek
8:01 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
THE WEATHER CHANNEL: YOUR CRUISE AUTHORITY!
lol =)
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1714. IKE
6:57 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
1713. FLWeatherFreak91 6:57 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Yeah, Instead of saying, "It's likely going out to sea" or something along those lines, they say more of, "There are a lot of things out there favorable for it not to develop."


Yeah...I heard that too. What about what it's accomplished...breaking a record? No mention....
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1713. FLWeatherFreak91
7:56 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Yeah, Instead of saying, "It's likely going out to sea" or something along those lines, they say more of, "There are a lot of things out there favorable for it not to develop."
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1712. JRRP
11:51 AM GMT on Julio 03, 2008
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK LOW OR
VORTICITY
MAX IS SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
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1711. IKE
6:51 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
1708. FLWeatherFreak91 6:48 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Let's see what TWC has to say... it's :48 after


They said...should be encountering dry-air further west. NHC didn't mention that.

"""Nothing to worry about""".....take that cruise...

Then they skimmed over the rest...93L...east-PAC...in the last 30 seconds of the update....

"""The Hurricane Authority"""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1710. FLWeatherFreak91
7:51 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Ike. That CMC run has it making an almost 90 degree turn into the weakness when the storm is just east of the leewards. Interesting.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1709. IKE
6:47 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
1704. StormW 6:43 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
1702. crownwx 7:40 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
1700:
When there is a storm out there, I use the TCD from NHC as a base for my discussions. From there, I add my thoughts and any pertinant additional info to the discussions.


Ok! I see. Thank you for clarifying!!



Shouldn't a forecaster give their own thoughts first and then see what the NHC says......no need to answer......

00Z CMC keeps it going west for awhile....Link


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1708. FLWeatherFreak91
7:47 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
Let's see what TWC has to say... it's :48 after
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1707. nrtiwlnvragn
7:47 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO 02L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 3

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -22.20 LAT: 12.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -23.00 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -24.30 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -25.80 LAT: 13.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -27.50 LAT: 13.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -29.20 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -30.70 LAT: 14.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -32.40 LAT: 15.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -34.20 LAT: 16.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -36.10 LAT: 16.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -38.00 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -40.10 LAT: 18.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -41.90 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -43.70 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -45.20 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -46.60 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -47.60 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -48.50 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -49.20 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -49.60 LAT: 24.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -49.90 LAT: 25.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -49.90 LAT: 26.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: .1500 .1500 21.4500 21.4500

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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