Bertha may pose a long-range threat to the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bertha has maintained it's strength overnight, but is having trouble with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 25°C--one degree below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Bertha, but last night's pass confirmed winds of at least 40mph. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength have consistently put the storm's strength at 50 mph over the past day. The storm is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Bertha.
The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. Bertha may be large enough to bring tropical storm force winds 100-200 miles from the center by Tuesday. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about 7-10 days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.
By Sunday morning, Bertha will be over SSTs of 26°C, which will warm to 27°C by Monday and 28°C Tuesday. this should allow Bertha to intensify to near Category 1 hurricane strength. However, by Tuesday, wind shear is expected to increase to 20 knots and remain high for several days, as Bertha encounters a branch of the subtropical jet stream. The higher shear should weaken the storm.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.
I'll post an update by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The higher shear should weaken the storm......
Dr. Masters said.
Hope you're right!!!!!!!!!!!!
And when Dr. Masters says an area should watch out, he means it, because I've never understood him to be over-dramatic... hopefully this system is turning to he north before it gets me here.
I agree...it's got my attention.
So this is going to be a fish storm? is that what I just read
(1)It may not be.
(2)Too early to know.
We don't know if this is going to be a fish storm or not. Maybe yes, maybe no. It depends on a lot of factors that remain hypothetical at this moment.
While it appears to have a CDO, notice that they've put the weakening flag on. The dry air is getting to her but she could still intensify to near or over hurricane strength in the long run as she moves into a more conductive region.
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 32.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 75NM
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 32.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
Notice the direction...from 285 to 280...getting closer to a true west direction.
They likely have the weakening flag on because the ADT got a raw T# of 2.9, and it had the rapid dissipation flag on last night, so I don't put too much stock in the weakening flags unless I see the same on satellite imagery. The convection seems to be holding up ok and Bertha has changed little in organization over the past several hours. All of this indicates to me that Bertha is holding her own despite limiting factors and after about 12-24 hours she should be moving into progressively warmer SSTs, which IMO should allow Bertha to become a hurricane if shear is low.
What about me JFV??? I guess you want me to get blown away b/c I haven't done my preparations lol just kidding
not really vacation... we got a house here and we can't just leave... although we've had to do that in the past
Well I wouldn't start evacuating or putting up shutters yet. People in the Caribbean should already be prepared and this storm will hopefully make them prepared, but I do like the NHC forecast track right now. The 06Z GFDL and HWRF actually have the track farther to the right and suggest a fish storm. NGPS and UKM are more the left of the NHC track while the GFS is about right on the track. If Bertha intensifies stronger than what the NHC forecasts, then she may move more to the north than indicated.
Should I start hoarding gallons of h2o? I'm on the gulf side but I am curious.
CIMSS Shear map
Will be keeping a wary eye on things. Cape Verde storms are the ones that tend to cause us the biggest problems here in SC.
So does anyone think FL will get hit "possibly"?
Should I start hoarding gallons of h2o? I'm on the gulf side but I am curious.
IF this Storm makes it to Fl it would obviously be an East coast storm, so over on the west coast you needn't be AS worried. But, I think it will most likely curve right on approach to fl and hit somewhere further north.
5 knots of shear over Bertha...with a high too....I agree it should intensify.......
Don't forget though it in 25 degree Celsius water..
are the early 12Z model runs trending back to the north? lol
i have no idea. I think?
Dr.Masters now thinks the northern island are in Berthas past, which is an almost due west track for that to happen, interesting .
he didn't say they were necessarily in its path, he just said they need to be prepared and monitor the situation in case it goes west.
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