KEEPER OF THE GATE
94L T-07 DAYS 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Posted by: KEEPEROFTHEGATE, 6:29 AM GMT on April 21, 2012 +4



Click for Toronto Pearson, Ontario Forecast
NOTICE
All the weather images and data on the pages contained herein are provided by external sources. Provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Any material that is copyrighted is property of the respective owner(s) and is to be used at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for any of the data shown on any maps. That is the sole responsibility of the provider the information comes from. The availability of the data on this site solely depends on the source. Don't use the weather information found here as your basis for life or death information. While the data presented on this blog should be correct, the data feed is not consistent enough to provide all of the data all of the time. More importantly, Your local National Weather Service office and/or NOAA weather radio is where you should get your important severe weather information. Use this blog for your enjoyment, but do not use it when making serious decisions. The information on this blog is gathered from other sources for information purposes only and is not intended for operational use
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.....TROPICAL SECTION.....


ATLANTIC/EAST PACIFIC BASIN

CENTRAL/WEST PACIFIC BASIN

SOUTH PACFIC/SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN

NORTH/SOUTH INDIAN BASIN


TROPICAL WARNING AREA ALERTS


.................................................
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Caribbean,Atlantic or
Gulf of Mexico
INVEST 94L
.................................................
Active Tropical Warnings in the Eastern Pacific,
T.C.F.W.
02E HURRICANE "BUD" CAT 1
................................................. .


TRACK MAP


The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.

REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
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AREAS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEV.





Due to the fact that sst's have risen nicly over the last couple of months combined with atomspheric conditions and early storm dev with the prospect of neutral conditions till at least mid sept or later numbers are increased to represent these facts at this point in time
TOTAL STORMS 14 TO 16
TOTAL HURRICANES 8 TO 10
TOTAL MAJORS 4 TO 6
TOTAL CAT 5's 0 TO 3
SST LEVELS ATLANTIC/EPAC/GOM



CURRENT SURFACE/SARAHA AIR LAYER IMAGES

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CURRENT GFS SURFACE ANAL.


LATEST SAT IMAGEST FROM EUMETSAT


LATEST SAT IMAGEST FROM LSU

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Wind shear, sometimes referred to as windshear or wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Wind shear can be broken down into vertical and horizontal components, with horizontal wind shear seen across weather fronts and near the coast, and vertical shear typically near the surface, though also at higher levels in the atmosphere near upper level jets and frontal zones aloft.
Wind Shear Levels


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In vector calculus, the divergence is an operator that measures the magnitude of a vector field's source or sink at a given point; the divergence of a vector field is a (signed) scalar. For example, consider air as it is heated or cooled. The relevant vector field for this example is the velocity of the moving air at a point. If air is heated in a region it will expand in all directions such that the velocity field points outward from that region. Therefore the divergence of the velocity field in that region would have a positive value, the region is a source. If the air cools and contracts, the divergence is negative and the region is called a sink. More technically, the divergence represents the volume density of the outward flux of a vector field from an infinitesimal volume around a given point.
A vector field that has zero divergence everywhere is called solenoidal.
Convergence zone usually refers to a region in the atmosphere where two prevailing flows meet and interact, usually resulting in distinctive weather conditions
Divergence Zone Area

Convergence Zone Area

WIND VECTORS



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COMMONLY USED ABBREVIATIONS
.AOI:area of interest
.C:celsius
.CAT:category
.CDO:central dense overcast
.EWRC:eye wall replacement cycle
.GMT:greenwich mean time
.INV:invest
.IR:infra-red
.ITCZ:intertropical convergence zone
.KTS:knots
.MB:millibars
.MSLP:minimum sea level pressure
.MWS:maximum wind speed
.NHC:National Hurricane Centre
.RMW:radius of maximum winds
.SST:sea surface temperature
.STS:subtropical storm
.SAL:sahara air layer
.TCFA:Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
.TC:tropical cyclone
.TD:tropical depression
.TS:tropical storm
.UTC:universal time
.VIS:visible sat image
.WV:water vapour sat image
.Z:zulu time
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Glossary of NHC Terms
Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
2012 Atlantic Storm Name List
Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence
Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael
Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie
William
2012 Eastern Pacific Storm Name List
Aletta Bud Carlotta Daniel Emilia Fabio Gilma
Hector Ileana John Kristy Lane Miriam Norman
Olivia Paul Rosa Sergio Tara Vicente Willa Xavier
Yolanda Zeke
* Be Safe * Be Smart * Be Prepared *
WORLD TIME ZONES

SEVERE WEATHER SECTION


NATIONAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS


LATEST SAT IMAGEST
MID WEST/NORTH EAST/SOUTH EAST/CEN PLAINS



NORTH WEST/SOUTH WEST/WEST CANADA/EAST CANADA


NATIONAL RADAR IMAGE





Global Forecast System
models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change.
NOTE
north american models will remain as a regular feature on the blog no matter what the seasonal
we have now added link to tropical model products

TROPICAL ATLANTIC MODELS GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET
Link

GFSx 850 MB TEMPS/PRECIP NAM PRECIP UNISYSTEMS
NAM MULTI DEPICTIONS
GFS MULTI DEPICTIONS
........MODEL UPDATED........







2011/2012 ICE/SNOW SECTION




WEATHER CAMS OUT OF SEASON
RETURNS NOV 1ST 2012



EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION





SOLAR WEATHER OBS.



EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.




Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH .....

WE ARE ALOT A LIKE IN MANY WAYS YOU AND I EXCEPT ONE
... --- ...
THERE ARE
BILLIONS OF YOU
YET
ONLY ONE OF ME


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NOTICE:
the blog update is complete
...KOTG
Categories:TROPICAL BLOG GENERAL WEATHER
Updated: 3:43 AM GMT on May 24, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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