95L Trying to Develop in Western Gulf; 94L a Threat to Caribbean Islands and U.S.

By: Levi32 , 5:40 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

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Invest 95L, a spin-off from Tropical Storm Helene, is back over the water in the western Gulf of Mexico where we expected it to be today, and is starting to rotate and generate thunderstorms as the tail-end of the front driving into the northern gulf helps promote low-level convergence in the area. As we've been warning since Ernesto made landfall, these remnants are a threat for development off of the west gulf coast, and they have probably about 48 hours before they are forced inland over northern Mexico or extreme southern Texas by high pressure building to the north of the front. A recon plane is going to be investigating the system shortly. 95L should be mostly a rain-maker, but small, quick spin-ups like this in the gulf can surprise you, and with Humberto still haunting the recent past, these kinds of things have to be watched closely.

Invest 94L will likely be the bigger threat as it moves into the eastern Caribbean islands and potentially other land masses during the next week or so. 94L has a well-defined circulation on satellite imagery this morning, but is still lacking convection. We have seen many times big swirls like this move across the central Atlantic and struggle with the dry air there, waiting until sea surface temperature increase sharply west of 50W to finally generate thunderstorms. 94L will be approaching 50W today, and tonight and tomorrow I expect it will start to develop, and should be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the lesser Antilles. Land interaction with the greater Antilles will then modulate the intensity, but 94L will likely not have a chance to become a hurricane until it clears the Caribbean island chain.

The forecast philosophy has not changed today. A deep-layer ridge to the north of 94L should steer the system on the same W to WNW track that it has been on, bringing it into the northern Antilles in 48-60 hours. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern over eastern North America favors a weakness developing in the ridge off of the southeast United States in response to strong upper blocking over Canada and an exiting mid-latitude trough entering the NW Atlantic and eroding the subtropical ridge west of Bermuda in 48-72 hours. This should result in 94L making a gradual turn towards the northwest, crossing the Caribbean island chain and ending up near the Bahamas in about 5 days. Due to 94L developing slightly slower than expected, the forecast track has been shifted southwestward slightly after 48 hours, and now takes 94L over Hispaniola. This part of the forecast is important, because a pass over Hispaniola would be a wildcard that determines how strong 94L becomes north of the Caribbean, and could cause a jerky shift in its track. Beyond this point, uncertainty increases markedly due to an unknown amount of land interaction, and although the odds of a U.S. landfall are increasing, such a potential landfall would be 7+ days away, too far away to get specific about that part of the forecast.

We shall see what happens!



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17. KoritheMan
5:00 AM GMT on August 21, 2012
Thank you, buddy. You have no idea how much you've taught me. I wouldn't be the forecaster I am today without your tutelage. Keep up the good work, and never lose that spark you have. You were meant for great things.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
16. lavinia
9:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
I certainly agree with everything Baha said. Plus, your Tidbits are so informative and SO easy to understand. Thanks for taking the time to do them. I have learned a lot from you. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
15. Levi32
8:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks Baha. I appreciate it.

I think the "stone-face" or "stoic" attitude that I display on the blog can sometimes give me an appearance of being egotistical. I have found that I need to be that way for many reasons. It would certainly be worse if I was in "frankly-speaking" mode all the time lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
14. AllyBama
8:36 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Good afternoon Levi. Well I see that I am still in the cone.. I hate this watching and waiting game. I sure wish that tropical systems came with GPS systems so that we knew their beginning and ending and ending lpoints and what routes they are taking.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 133 Comments: 20639
13. BahaHurican
8:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
And BTW, I am TOTALLY hating on your forecast, which means I have an absolutely nasty first couple of days back at work...

lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
12. BahaHurican
8:26 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Hey Levi,

Just a further on my comments in the main blog:

1. I don't expect you to get a swelled head. [u been pretty good at not having one before, and I'm sure u can manage not to in the future.]

2. U been around long enough to see the "petties" come out like a pack of dogs on a bear and try to bring down somebody who they think is "high and mighty" because of other bloggers' respect for them. I hope you paid attention and learned from others' experience.

3. Don't you DARE let anybody cause you to leave the blog, or this website, before you are absolutely ready to do so on your own terms. Be like weather456; he left because his life changed, not because some twit made him lose his cool.

You are one of the few who has been here since the first season of the blog. The other "old-timers" like you and me kinda take each other for granted. That doesn't mean we don't have respect for each other. I also suspect, that the others, like me, feel a certain pride in being a part of this blog which has fostered fine young future scientists like you and others.

Baha
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
11. FyrtleMyrtle
8:24 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Yo Levi! I've been a lurker on this website for years, just thought I would take a moment to say kudos for your tidbit analyses. Just keep posting yours first and everyone else can try to back into theirs (hahaha). Its been a real treat reading some of the moronic bashing, dont they know the greatest flattery comes from imitation (and # of haters in the modern on-line era)??? sheesh...
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
10. Levi32
7:13 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting stormchaser19:
Levi i think 94lL will have a 70 mph winds right under hurricane status and right before interact whith hispanola , i expect some rapid strengthening between 60-70 West what do you think?


Well my forecast image is right above :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
9. kwgirl
7:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks Levi. I see it coming my way as well. Now the quandary, if the storm comes I think Jury duty will be canceled. Can't stop the storm so ......maybe the storm will stop the trial. :)
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
8. AtHomeInTX
7:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks Levi.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
7. PedleyCA
6:41 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Interesting!!!
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6111
6. watercayman
6:38 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Great summary. Thank you Levi.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
5. acyddrop
6:10 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Excellent break down Levi, thank you!
Member Since: October 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
4. stormchaser19
6:09 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Levi i think 94lL will have a 70 mph winds right under hurricane status and right before interact whith hispanola , i expect some rapid strengthening between 60-70 West what do you think?
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
3. Bluestorm5
6:01 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Levi, majority of people are disagreeing with East Coast storm but you're still sticking with it? This is going to be interesting for me in North Carolina...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8046
2. GeorgiaStormz
5:58 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
we shall see
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
1. Greg01
5:55 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks.
Member Since: July 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 160

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Levi Cowan has been tracking tropical systems since 2002, and is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF.

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