Casual Astronomy, Spaceflight News and Lower California Weather

Weather is "go" except for upper level winds.

Currently the count is at T minus 4 minutes in a planned hold.

"Red" for upper level winds not expected to clear for today's first launch opportunity.

The hold will be extended to attempt today's other launch opportunity at 9:16am EDT.

Skye Good morning! As far as I can tell from the video not much in the way of clouds there. I'm looking forward to some nice pics by you. :^)

Today's second launch attempt has been scrubbed due to upper level wind constraint violation.

The launch team is preparing for tomorrow's launch opportunities at 8:33am & 9:12am EDT.

UPDATE: The next launch attempts have been pushed back to Saturday at 8:29am & 9:08am EDT.

BTW video, commentary and updates can be found at

Spaceflight Now | Delta Launch Report | Mission Status Center

and

NASA TV via cable, satellite or the web.

More info on the launch of the NASA GRAIL mission is in comment 42.

ATK will conduct a static test burn of their 5 segment solid rocket booster at 5 minutes past the hour. Live video here.

OK... that live video link wasn't very lively for me. I'll look for something a bit more animated next time, lol.

I'll put up a YouTube of the test when it becomes available.

sp Thank you for that article. That is the issue I said I was planning to address in comment 40.

.... Yes, unfortunately NASA & United States spaceflight are no longer sacred but just another political football. I'll have another illustration of that in an upcoming comment.
....

Your linked article has great descriptions and illustrations of the capabilities and of the 85% of work already completed on the James Webb Space Telescope. I'm going to excerpt some small bits that illustrate the political issue.

.... what was originally slated to be a $5.1 Billion project, to launch in 2013, was re-evaluated, and found that it would actually cost $6.5 Billion, and wouldn't be able to launch until 2015.

....the government did an independent review of James Webb in 2010, determined what the quickest and cheapest way to complete it was, and what was needed to make that happen. They then didn't provide the funds for it, and now further allow the blame to fall on NASA for the delays and cost overruns that they knew would happen.

.... while NASA Astrophysics deserves the blame for the initial cost overruns and delays (to $6.5 billion and 2015), the most recent, disastrous news (a cost of $8.7 billion and delays to 2018) should fall on the shoulders of a miserly US congress.

The next launch attempts of the NASA GRAIL mission on a Delta II-Heavy from Cape Canaveral have been pushed back to Saturday at 8:29am & 9:08am EDT.

Where over the world is the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)?

Reload to update image.

Image credit: Heavens-Above

Where on the world will it land (and when)?

NASA - UARS

....
It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed. Visit this page for updates on the satellite's orbital track and predicted re-entry date.

NASA will post updates weekly until four days before the anticipated re-entry, then daily until about 24 hours before re-entry, and then at about 12 hours, six hours and two hours before re-entry. The updates will come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.

The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.
....

but NASA would like you to know

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere in late September or early October 2011, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.

The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry.
....

Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says | UARS Satellite Falling From Space & NASA Space Debris | Space Junk & Orbital Debris | Space.com

....
One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).
....

sp The science, technology, engineering and math problems involved in humans becoming a spacefaring species can be solved. Efforts in that direction have yielded and will continue to yield many and major side benefits. However for some humans the greatest motivator seems to be the fear or the domination of other humans. :^/

Rainman Thanks so much for the reminder for the readers! :^) I fell asleep early last night before putting one in my blog entry title.

I didn't set an alarm either and almost missed the launch myself. I was awakened this morning by pack of coyotes howling on my hillside. As I was settling down to fall back asleep I suddenly remembered and turned the TV on just seconds before the launch.

Karen I'm glad you didn't miss the launch either. :^) For the answer to the weather question see my comment 12 in sp34n119w's blog.

I added WUphotos of the GRAIL mission launch at the bottom of the blog entry.

Pat No one is going to fly Soyuz for a while anyway. In the meantime yet another possibility is added to the future of US human space flight.

NASA Inks Deal to Help Shuttle Rocket Builder Develop Space Taxis | NASA & Commercial Crew Development | ATK & Private Spaceflight | Space.com

NASA has signed a deal with Alliant Techsystems, the company that provided the space shuttle fleet's solid rocket boosters, to help develop a new vehicle that could launch astronauts into orbit by 2015, the space agency announced today (Sept. 13).

The new NASA deal with Utah-based Alliant Techsystems (ATK) is an unfunded Space Act Agreement to work together on the company's Liberty rocket. While NASA won't give ATK any money in the deal, the agency will provide expertise that could help ready the rocket for operational flights in the next four years, officials said.

"This agreement will provide the opportunity to look at the Liberty system to understand its design solution and risks, its capabilities and how it could be used to fly our NASA crew," said Ed Mango, NASA's commercial crew program manager, in a statement. [10 Private Spaceships Headed for Reality]
....

sp Even though that low is exiting east along the Cal-Mex border there is some good wraparound moisture coming at us from the north.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
311 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SUNLAND...LAKE VIEW TERRACE...
ACTON...
EAST CENTRAL VENTURA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM PDT

* AT 303 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SANTA CLARITA...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ACTON. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND
ADJACENT RURAL ROADWAYS.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
347 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM PDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL VENTURA AND CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...

AT 336 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WARNING AREA.
THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF CASTAIC LAKE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANTA CLARITA. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SANTA CLARITA...CASTAIC LAKE
AND VAL VERDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU
ARE ON THE LAKE...HEAD TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
334 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 630 PM PDT

* AT 323 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. HIGHWAY
PATROL REPORTED FLOODING NEAR AGUA DULCE CANYON ROAD.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE SOLEDAD CANYON...ACTON...
HIGHWAY 14 AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
602 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM PDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

AT 602 PM PDT...THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE WARNED AREA HAS WEAKENED...BUT THERE IS STILL LIKELY WATER AND
MUD FLOWING DOWN ARROYOS AND WASHES. THE FLASH FLOODING WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 630 PM PDT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE THE SOLEDAD CANYON...ACTON...AND
HIGHWAY 14 AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
OXNARD.

Quoting sp34n119w:
Howdy, LC. I found a blog post written by one of the discoverers of that diamond planet and thought you might like.

I did like it.

Spaceflight Now | Space Station Mission Report | Russia sets Nov. 12 for next manned Soyuz rocket launch

....
The Nov. 12 blastoff would come after at least one unmanned flight of the Soyuz rocket third stage responsible for an Aug. 24 mishap that destroyed a Progress cargo craft bound for the International Space Station.
....
Space station commander Andrey Borisenko, Russian cosmonaut Alexander Samokutyaev and NASA flight engineer Ronald Garan now aboard the space station are scheduled to return to Earth on Thursday night. Three more residents will remain on the space laboratory until mid-November.

The Nov. 12 launch date would allow the space station to remain partially-staffed with a crew of three until another trio of fliers blast off Dec. 20. That flight would restore the outpost to a full crew of six international astronauts and cosmonauts.
....

I've added some awesome local weather WunderPhotos at the bottom of the blog entry.

Space Launch System

Image credit: NASA

NASA - NASA Announces Design for New Deep Space Exploration System

NASA Announces Design for New Deep Space Exploration System
09.14.11

NASA is ready to move forward with the development of the Space Launch System -- an advanced heavy-lift launch vehicle that will provide an entirely new national capability for human exploration beyond Earth's orbit. The Space Launch System will give the nation a safe, affordable and sustainable means of reaching beyond our current limits and opening up new discoveries from the unique vantage point of space.

The Space Launch System, or SLS, will be designed to carry the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, as well as important cargo, equipment and science experiments to Earth's orbit and destinations beyond. Additionally, the SLS will serve as a back up for commercial and international partner transportation services to the International Space Station.

"This launch system will create good-paying American jobs, ensure continued U.S. leadership in space, and inspire millions around the world," NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said. "President Obama challenged us to be bold and dream big, and that's exactly what we are doing at NASA. While I was proud to fly on the space shuttle, kids today can now dream of one day walking on Mars."

The SLS rocket will incorporate technological investments from the Space Shuttle program and the Constellation program in order to take advantage of proven hardware and cutting-edge tooling and manufacturing technology that will significantly reduce development and operations costs. It will use a liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propulsion system, which will include the RS-25D/E from the Space Shuttle program for the core stage and the J-2X* engine for the upper stage. SLS will also use solid rocket boosters for the initial development flights, while follow-on boosters will be competed based on performance requirements and affordability considerations. The SLS will have an initial lift capacity of 70 metric tons (mT) and will be evolvable to 130 mT. The first developmental flight, or mission, is targeted for the end of 2017.

This specific architecture was selected, largely because it utilizes an evolvable development approach, which allows NASA to address high-cost development activities early on in the program and take advantage of higher buying power before inflation erodes the available funding of a fixed budget. This architecture also enables NASA to leverage existing capabilities and lower development costs by using liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen for both the core and upper stages. Additionally, this architecture provides a modular launch vehicle that can be configured for specific mission needs using a variation of common elements. NASA may not need to lift 130 mT for each mission and the flexibility of this modular architecture allows the agency to use different core stage, upper stage, and first-stage booster combinations to achieve the most efficient launch vehicle for the desired mission.

"NASA has been making steady progress toward realizing the president's goal of deep space exploration, while doing so in a more affordable way," NASA Deputy Administrator Lori Garver said. "We have been driving down the costs on the Space Launch System and Orion contracts by adopting new ways of doing business and project hundreds of millions of dollars of savings each year."

The Space Launch System will be NASA's first exploration-class vehicle since the Saturn V took American astronauts to the moon over 40 years ago. With its superior lift capability, the SLS will expand our reach in the solar system and allow us to explore cis-lunar space, near-Earth asteroids, Mars and its moons and beyond. We will learn more about how the solar system formed, where Earth' water and organics originated and how life might be sustained in places far from our Earth's atmosphere and expand the boundaries of human exploration. These discoveries will change the way we understand ourselves, our planet, and its place in the universe.

Emphasis added by me.

* Rocketdyne's J-2 rocket engine was a major component of the Saturn V rocket used in the Apollo program to send men to the Moon. ....

Quoting Patrap:
See image 69,...

Heh, heh. That's what I thought. ;^)

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
403 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 700 PM PDT

* AT 351 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF MOUNT WILSON.
RADAR RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AND HALF PER HOUR WERE
BEING RECORDED FROM THIS STORM.

* THE STORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 2 AND ANGELES FOREST HIGHWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

shore We do get monsoon pulses in mid-September sometimes but "normally" they come from the the easterly through southerly directions accompanied by sticky heat. What is not usual about the current spell is its persistence this far east, the absence of heat and the direction it's coming from. The moisture is wrapping around upper lows and coming from the north.

You probably don't want to send Pecos Bill. All we have to offer is isolated cloudbursts, brief wetting rains and dry lightning strikes.

Karen Oh well, we don't really expect rain in coastal SoCal in the summer. I hope we have early start to a productive rain season though.

Pat Thanks for the good news. I watched some of the return to Earth on NASA TV last night.

So now it's three down and three still up. If the next Soyuz launches are OK and as planned it will be plus three more up November 12 and the International Space Station won't have to go empty when three more come down on November 22.

shore Thanks for the UARS satellite update.

As for "that", one really shouldn't hang out the airplane window when changing lenses. It's lucky the photographer didn't fall through the roof of the house too.

Where over the world is the 6.5 ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)?

Reload to update image.

Image credit: Heavens-Above


Where on the world will it land (and when)?

Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 20:00 UTC ± 14 hours

For clarity, ground track plot is limited to ± 6 hours

Legend
Yellow Icon - location of object at predicted reentry time
Orange Line - area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer
Blue Line - ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line - ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White Line - day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

Prediction, image and legend credit: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies


Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says | UARS Satellite Falling From Space & NASA Space Debris | Space Junk & Orbital Debris | Space.com

....
One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).
....

NASA - UARS

UARS Updates

Update #7
Wed, 21 Sep 2011 03:35:54 PM PDT

As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.....

... or it doesn't fall on schedule, heh heh.

(Reposted with the latest update to the reentry forecast.)

Where over the world is the 6.5 ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)?

Reload to update image.

Image credit: Heavens-Above


Where on the world will it land (and when)?

Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC ± 9 hours

Legend
Yellow Icon - location of object at predicted reentry time
Orange Line - area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer
Blue Line - ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line - ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White Line - day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

Prediction, image and legend credit: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies


Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says | UARS Satellite Falling From Space & NASA Space Debris | Space Junk & Orbital Debris | Space.com

....
One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).
....

Pat Great old song! :^)

It's not going to be a long time for the UARS satellite. I'm reposting the info here with another update to the reentry forecast.

Where over the world is the 6.5 ton Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS)?

Reload to update image.

Image credit: Heavens-Above


Where on the world will it land (and when)?

Predicted Reentry Time: 24 SEP 2011 @ 00:58 UTC ± 7 hours

Legend
Yellow Icon - location of object at predicted reentry time
Orange Line - area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer
Blue Line - ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line - ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White Line - day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

Prediction, image and legend credit: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies


Huge Defunct Satellite to Plunge to Earth Soon, NASA Says | UARS Satellite Falling From Space & NASA Space Debris | Space Junk & Orbital Debris | Space.com

....
One analysis of re-entry survivability for UARS components was performed several years ago with a software program called Object Re-entry Survival Analysis Tool, or ORSAT for short.

That computer analysis showed that about 150 component types, including the parent body of the satellite, will demise during re-entry, and 12 types (26 counting multiple components) would endure the fiery fall to Earth.

That appraisal indicated a surviving mass of 1,170 pounds (532 kilograms) falling within a debris footprint length of some 500 miles (800 kilometers).
....

You won't even need to duck! LOL