Irene is gone, focus turns to 92L
It has been a long time since I have done a blog entry, so I thought I would give it a shot!
Atlantic Wide View Infrared:
Synopsis
What's left of Irene is now moving through Southeast Canada and should continue to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. In the Gulf of Mexico, northwest flow aloft prevails due to the 4-Corners States' ridge (i.e. Texas Death Ridge) and the presence of a large trough over the Eastern United States induced by Irene's circulation. The Caribbean is disturbed because of weak tropical wave in the Western Caribbean and an upper level low in the Eastern Caribbean. The Eastern Caribbean upper low is the one that helped ventilate Hurricane Irene. Tropical Storm Jose is moving harmlessly out to sea northwest of Bermuda and should dissipate within 36 hours. An African waved, tagged 92L, is entering the picture south of the Cape Verde Islands and will be the next big story in the Tropical Atlantic.
92L Discussion
92L is set to become the next big story in the tropics. The NHC is giving 92L a near 100% chance of development as of the 8/28/2011 8:00pm TWO. I would have to agree with the percentage and believe that 92L will become a tropical depression by the 5AM advisory, or the 11AM advisory at the latest. 92L is embedded within slower easterlies than we have seen so far this season, so the movement to the west will be slower than normal. The 00z SHIPS intensity forecast brings 92L up to 100kts in 120 hours. We have seen time and time again this season that the models tend to over-do development in the Eastern Atlantic, so I'm more inclined to believe in gradual strengthening. However, we must remember that the Eastern Atlantic is reaching its prime-time for development and it is much easier for a wave to quickly develop there now than earlier in the season when we were loaded with SAL. I would expect a quicker jump in intensity closer to 50W since at that point 92L will have a lot more heat to help with intensification.
TCHP:
SAL:
As we can see, SAL is almost non-existent across the Atlantic Basin.
Steering
Current steering for 92L is pretty basic and shouldn't change much over the next 2-3 days. It should be steered basically due west tomorrow, with possibly a more northward component in 3 days. At that time, a lot is going to depend on how quickly 92L strengthens. As most of us know already, a deeper (stronger) storm is much more likely to feel any weakness to its north and will be tugged towards the weakness. However, a weaker system is more likely to continue west.
After 50W, I don't see much to limit 92L from strengthening quickly as TCHP and SSTs will be prime. SAL is at a season low and should not be an issue. The only impediment could be any sort of TUTT or cut-off upper low that could be meandering around just north of the Antilles.
At this time, I believe a track north of the island chain and Puerto Rico is most likely. A trough is being forecast to stall and split near or just east of Bermuda in the coming 4-5 day period. A tropical cyclone or hybrid low is forecast by the models to form out of this trough and it leads to the first weakness which would pull possible Katia north of the islands. However, this is far out and forecasting cut-off lows/trough-splits that far out is very difficult for the models. At this time, I believe Puerto Rico and the northern-most islands should keep a close eye on 92L. Steering and intensity will become more clear in the next few days.
00z Models:
Elsewhere
Elsewhere in the tropics, the Gulf of Mexico states, particularly Texas and Louisiana, should keep an eye out for a possible tropical disturbance in the middle part of the week. The 00z NAM brings a tropical wave into the Central Gulf and develops it into a tropical storm. The NAM is not the most reliable model at forecasting tropical cyclone genesis, but the GFS and European models have both shown a disturbed area of weather moving through the same location at the same time frame. I believe it will still be difficult for anything to develop in the Gulf since the Texas Ridge will be moving towards the Ozarks region and should cause a great deal of subsidence across the Gulf. We will keep a look out in the next couple of days to see what happens.
Thanks for reading!
Reader Comments
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Just keep practicing.
I mostly just lurk year since 05 and joined last year, but I watch everything LOL
Thanks! I'll try to get into more of a blogging-habit. It's hard to find the time usually, though.
Thanks, guys!
You lurkers should contribute more. At least you could contribute on my blog if I keep it active. :-)
Agreed. I know my handle says I've only been a member since 2006, but I was actually a member in 2004 with a different handle. I eventually forgot the log-in information for it and made a new one. LOL.
Welcome! Hope you come back to read again.
I enjoy your posts at the main blog, and consider you one of the top ten or so participants in terms of adding value to the discussions.
Many postersat the blog will say "I think" or simply "x will happen" with absolutely no supporting data or logic. Those people very quickly end up on my ignore list.
I would rather read 10 Taz's with his difficult to read English than one articulate idiot who spells his b.s. correctly.
Dave
Did you post on Dr. Master's blog with your old handle during Katrina?
Lol. I understand exactly what you mean and thanks for the kind words! I do my best and just want to add whatever I can to the blog!
I think I was more of just a lurker at that time, but I posted a few times. The handle was called hurricanewatcher or something like that...I like my current handle much better. LOL.
Lol yeah I like your MSwx handle better as well..when lurk through Dr. Master's blog there are only a few posts I read and yours is one.
Well I am glad you read them. We Mississippians have to stick together as it seems we are far outnumbered on the blog! I think it has a lot to do with coast-size. LOL. Alabama seems to have the least out of the Southeast states since they have the smallest coastline. Makes sense, I guess!
Yeah we do definetly need to stick together..that is one thing I noticed we are outnumbered..LOL yeah does make sense I've seen a few on here but like you said we all need to stick together SE Louisiana, South Mississippi, South Alabama, and Western Florida Panhandle! So what were you doing six years ago right now?
Hmmm...that's a good question. I was actually at home watching The Weather Channel and staying on the internet keeping up with radars, warnings and intensity. Remember, TWC wasn't too bad back then. We ended up losing electricity at about 8AM Monday morning.
Thanks!
And no, I'm not studying meteorology, although I often wonder why not! Lol. It is a passion of mine, but I chose the athletic profession instead. I'm almost out of college, so it's too late to change my mind on profession. I would be happy either way!
Believe me I know it wasn't..kinda hard to watch now. I was doing the exact same thing you were. We lost electricity around 4:30am didn't get it back until Oct. 3.
This is the last local forecast I recorded before we lost power.
I have one dumb question though about the TCHP graphic above.
Why is there such a cool blue around the FL Gulf coast - incl that big blob extending from the Big Bend area?
I could've sworn in years past that the warmer colors on the TCHP map would extend well into the gulf, particularly around the SW/FL coastline. UNTIL a TS would cool those waters down. But we haven't had anything in our area this year - so why the coolness?
Is my memory failing me - or is there a reason this year for such cool gulf temps on that graphic?
(Told ya it was a dumb question, lol)
Thanks again for your contributions to Master's blog :)
Maybe I'm confusing water temps with TCHP....sorry....back to lurking, LOL
You're welcome and thanks for the compliments!
And no, your question is not dumb. It's actually a very good one. The reason for the lack of TCHP in that area is most likely a combination of things. The actual temperature of the water in that location on the surface is around 31C. Currents can keep the waters at a greater depth from warming too much. It is possible that this is the case in the NE Gulf. Also, the waters of the NE Gulf and North Central Gulf are much much shallow than the waters in the Central and Western Gulf. Thus, the tropical cyclone heat potential is less in the Northern Gulf areas because there is not as much of a heat storage there due to the lack of deep water. Hope this helps!
Are you the one who put up those series of youtube videos on Katrina from TWC?? I love those!
Haha yep that's me! I'm glad you like them.
Oh wow - Thanks for that response!
Okay - I was all onboard with what you said. Then my logical brain stumbled on this:
heat potential is less in the Northern Gulf areas because there is not as much of a heat storage there due to the lack of deep water
But it's our shallow gulf coast waters that keep the water temps so high. So how does that sentence make sense?
Lack of deep water = Shallow water --> warmer water --> "not as much of a heat storage there due to the lack of deep water" ::stumbles and falls::
I'll go to bed now and think that through, lol
But thanks again for your blog post! Enjoyed the graphics - I can't read thru those blogs that are like 20 straight paragraphs of blah-blah-blah technical text - your blog was a great read!
Keep up the flow of info!
Awesome! I've watched them many many times. They still give me chills and the music from TWC just adds to the drama. Lol. What an amazing and awful storm she was...
Lol! I think you're a little confused as to why the Gulf warms the way it does. The Gulf is surrounded by land and the land obviously heats up a lot during the summer, which helps the temperatures across the Gulf to go higher. Also, the trade winds in the Gulf are typically pretty slow as it is far enough away from the strong A/B high. Less wind = less upwelling of cooler water. Hurricanes need warm water at a great depth to help them intensify more quickly. The waters along the Northern Gulf Coast are shallower than the waters in the Central Gulf. Thus, the water in the Northern Gulf is not able to hold as much heat as waters that are deeper. You are correct that the water closer to land is normally warmer, but that does not mean it can hold heat potential. Remember, hurricanes need waters that are warm AND deep.
Thanks! I will do my best with the updates.
That's cool when I posted them 4 years ago I didn't think that many people would watch..I remember I woke up that sunday morning and heard the music the first time and it gave me chills also...it was a surreal experience six years ago..youre right it was an amazing and awful storm.
Well, thanks for the videos. Anyway, I am about to go to sleep and I can honestly say that I will sleep much better than I did 6 years ago tonight!
Goodnight, everyone.
GOT IT! I somehow forget that little tidbit, LOL!
Thanks again Mwx for your input and teaching!
No problem! Have a good night!
I have a very important transatlantic flight on September 8 (a week from Thursday) and I am hoping this will not impact it.
I realize it's way too far in the future to say, but what do the models indicate and what has history shown for storms that develop here?
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