John's Weather Blog
Tropical Update
Posted by: NCtorontojohn, 5:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2011 +0
Currently two tropical cyclone (Hurricane Katia and Tropical Depression 13), as well as one invest (94L) roam the Atlantic. Hurricane Katia is currently a minimal category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 991 mb. Katia is expected to continue moving WNW to NW over the next 5 days without impacting land. Beyond the next five days there is some disagreement with the models and it is difficult at this time to make an accurate prediction as to where exactly Hurricane Katia will be headed. It does appear though that it might come closer to the east coast of the United States than was originally anticipated, although it is still to early to be sure. Meanwhile Tropical Depression 13 formed in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday and is expected to slowly intensify and eventually become Tropical Storm Lee. The main impact of TD 13 will be heavy rain as it is expected to drift very slowly north and eventually make landfall in Louisiana. It is not expected to reach hurricane intensity before making landfall, however the size of the storm will make it a very potent rain maker.

Satellite of Hurricane Katia:


Satellite of Tropical Depression 13:


The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of low pressure located north of Bermuda for possible development. The low has been dubbed invest 94L by the National Hurricane Center and the NHC is currently giving 94L a 60% chance of development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Based on recent satellite imagery I believe that this percentage is a little high and I don't believe that 94L will develop into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere in the Atlantic a tropical wave has just moved off the African coast and may need to be monitored for development over the next couple of days.

Satellite of Invest 94L:


SEASON TO DATE:
Name - Winds (mph) - Min. cent. pressure (millibars)
Tropical Storm Arlene - 65 - 993
Tropical Storm Bret - 65 - 996
Tropical Storm Cindy - 60 - 1000
Tropical Storm Don - 50 - 998
Tropical Storm Emily - 50 - 1003
Tropical Storm Franklin - 45 - 1004
Tropical Storm Gert - 60 - 1000
Tropical Storm Harvey - 60 - 994
Hurricane Irene - 120 - 942
Tropical Depression 10 - 35 - 1007
Tropical Storm Jose - 45 - 1007
Hurricane Katia (still active) - 75 - 987
Tropical Depression 13 (still active) - 35 - 1005
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Hurricane Irene
Posted by: NCtorontojohn, 6:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2011 +0
As of 5 am EDT this morning Tropical Storm Irene was upgraded to Hurricane Irene. Irene is the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Winds in Irene are currently sustained at 80 mph (130 kph), and the minimum central pressure is 989 millibars. The storm is currently located just to the northwest of Puerto Rico, and is moving WNW. The storm has already crossed Puerto Rico where winds may have been as strong as 111 mph in the mountainous regions. ...
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Tropical Update
Posted by: NCtorontojohn, 11:56 PM GMT on June 06, 2011 +0
Atlantic invest 94L is running out of time to develop into a tropical cyclone before it encounters unfavorable conditions beggining tomorrow. It will have tonight to get its act together before shear and dry air will tear the system apart. It is looking less and less likely that the system, which is currently lacking in organization, will have time to organize suffieciently to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Based on current trends i'm giving Invest 94L a 30...
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Tropical Weather June 5, 2011 1700 EDT
Posted by: NCtorontojohn, 8:54 PM GMT on June 05, 2011 +0
Current Atl conditions as reported by the NHC:000AXNT20 KNHC 051749TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOG...
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