Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Cancun and News

Posted by: Dr. Ricky Rood, 2:12 AM GMT on November 11, 2010

Cancun and News

My recent blogs have been long analyses of climate change science and politics and communication and organization. I am delighted to have seen them propagate around, both publically and not – for example American Meteorology Society. It’s very gratifying to see others use and improve on what one does. This entry is going to be far simpler. A little about Cancun Conference of the Parties, Roger Pielke Jr.’s new book, Merapi volcano, and some news from Pakistan. OK, it’s news.

Cancun, Conference of the Parties - 16: A year ago, November 2009, I was planning a trip to the Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen. The Conference of the Parties (COP) are the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Before Copenhagen there was great energy, with some notion that the Copenhagen meeting would lead to a breakthrough on international climate change agreements. Of course, that did not happen and while there was spin that the meeting was a success, most people that I know were not enthusiastic about the outcome. (The Copenhagen Accord) My take of the outcome was that there was symbolic political recognition that global warming needed to be addressed, but no substantive steps were taken to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Plus, the political, economic and technological realities are that we will not see international agreement on reducing emissions anytime soon. It will be much longer before there is any real reduction of emissions. (Here are student blogs and my blogs from last year. UoM and Alma Students, Rood)

I am not going to Cancun. There is a group of students from Michigan and Alma going this year, and again, they will be blogging from the meeting on the Climate Blue website. This year my expectations are (even) lower than last year. The U.S. is further away from a national position than a year ago, and without the U.S. having a coherent voice, then there is no real way to be effective in the U.N. And, of course, there is no real international desire for a climate treaty. The press and the politicians are not playing up this meeting. There will still be thousands of people and lots of action on the ground; people will still look for opportunities and build towards the future.

The intractable nature of greenhouse gas emission reduction policy is one of the reasons that I advocate exposing and scaling up of local and commercial activities ( here).

Roger Pielke Jr: On October 25, 2010 Roger Pielke Jr spoke at the Ford School at the University of Michigan. ( Pielke Seminar) I was the commentator at the presentation. Roger was talking about material in his new book, The Climate Fix. Roger Pielke Jr. is a highly controversial, strongly stated political scientist who is expert in climate change. He is a prolific and early blogger. The gist of his talk was that what we are doing now to develop climate policy does not work, and it is time to consider the underlying reasons why and to do something different. There were those in audience who expected me to take exception to this message, but I did not. My experience over the past five years is that what we are doing on the international level to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is broken and that there are fundamental reasons why. At the center of reasons, we don’t really have any market-viable alternative energy sources and no technological ways to abate the emission of carbon dioxide. This, in combination with our imperatives for economic growth (read, energy use), makes the situation currently intractable. Combine that with the political realities, we do have to do something different. Pielke Jr. provides a more thorough, more quantitative, and controversial analysis of this situation (The Climate Fix).

Merapi Volcano: Some time ago I wrote a piece called Climate, Belief and the Volcano. In that piece I wrote about Mr. Marijan who was the spirit keeper of the volcano. In these recent eruptions Mr. Marijan died.

Pakistan: I am certain to maintain an interest in Pakistan far longer than the average disaster attention span. My youngest sister Elizabeth is Counsel General in Peshawar so I keep an eye on the news. I saw her this past week (a good thing), and it is a tough, tough place to be. Flood wise, there is progress in the Northwest, and there are efforts to plant winter wheat. Sindh, in the South, is still flooded. One thing Elizabeth pointed out to me that the flood had deposited 12 feet of silt in places, and amongst other things the land was now higher than the irrigation systems. UNICEF says they are running out of money, food, and vaccines, and a bad situation is likely to get worse. Attention to the Pakistan flood is moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative. (Pakistan Flooding: A Climate Disaster, Yours truly on Chicago-based Radio Islam, Rood interview)

Here are some places that my sister has recommended for the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan. Organizations she sees.

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com

UNICEF Donations

Figure 1. Despair of Pakistan’s forgotten flood victims: BBC coverage of continuing flood in Pakistan

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103. cyclonebuster 12:59 PM GMT on November 18, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: I remember seeing a comparison between the 2007 Alaska fire and the fires in Russia this past summer, with the latter by far dwarfing the Alaska fire. Heck, most of Russia was covered with smoke at one point. Also of note, while not as dramatic as some Arctic locations due to location, even Mauna Loa is recording a spike in methane levels this year: Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the recent increase in the last few years is related to melting permafrost releasing methane; previously, levels had started stabilizing probably because human emissions haven't increased significantly (not sure about that) and the short atmospheric lifetime. Or perhaps dead microbes which feasted on the oil spill in the GOM this year??? Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

104. cyclonebuster 10:26 PM GMT on November 18, 2010
Current situation (2010 nov 17th - according to available data - source mentionned above). 9398281 (2007) vs 938125 (today). As i mentionned before, we're still in the same league with figures so close. Not yet typical of a dooms cold era predicted earlier this year or more recently following a quick start within the 80 deg. above. Recent report on the ENSO status is showing a very warm SST on most of the Atlantic, and north seas (including Hudson's Bay). So even if temps goes low, SST will delay the ice formation and it is already visible in the current stats. From the latest ENSO status report (Nov. 15th. Link Link Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

108. cyclonebuster 12:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA: Dissolved methane, petroleum breakdown or microbe decomposition perhaps?? So we know Methane is a much worse (25X) GHG than is Co2. Would it have been better to burn that fuel to get Co2 or is it better to let it leak out and be turned eventually into methane? Either way my Tunnels prevent that! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

110. cyclonebuster 1:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Is there a chart where we can see this Michael? Is the last years rate of rise greater than the previous 4 years rate of rise? World wide levels talking here! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

113. cyclonebuster 1:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: See comment 102, which is for Mauna Loa, the most commonly cited source from GHG levels; the recent increase appears to be the largest year on year increase shown. I was afraid of that I didn't edit it in time! Speaking world wide levels? Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

115. cyclonebuster 1:50 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: See comment 102, which is for Mauna Loa, the most commonly cited source from GHG levels; the recent increase appears to be the largest year on year increase shown. Correct this years uptick is huge! Ouch! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

116. cyclonebuster 1:52 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
We dern sure don't need to be adding Methane to our atmosphere no matter what the source is! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

117. cyclonebuster 1:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Boy, I'd sure like to tutor the naysayers over here on Ricks blog and give them some remedial training in this climate change 101 course blog! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

119. cyclonebuster 2:11 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: Actually, no: Arctic Report Card - Greenland * Nuuk (64.2°N along Greenland's west coast): Year 2010 summer, spring, and winter 2009/2010 were the warmest on record since record keeping began in 1873. * Aasiaat (69.0°N along Greenland's west coast): It was the warmest month of May and August, and the warmest winter, spring, 2nd warmest summer and the warmest year (July 2009-August 2010) since record keeping began in 1951. * Narsarssuaq (61.2°N in southern Greenland): It was the warmest month of May, and the warmest winter, spring and the warmest year (July 2009-August 2010) since record keeping began in 1951. * Thule AFB, Pituffik (76.5°N along Greenland's west coast): It was the warmest spring (March-May) on record, which began in 1961. Anecdotal Data A long-term resident of Greenland wrote on 4 February, 2010: "we don´t have snow, we don´t have the cold" ... "This weather this year is really different, in 30 years that I live in Ilulissat [69.0°N along Greenland's west coast], that is the first year in this conditions. We have lot of dog sledding tourists, but we cannot do the tour, too much ice on the hills and dangerous to drive by sled." ... "no snow at all". Later, the same source remarked of "10-12 days of" continuous "heat wave" like weather, in June, with "a lot of blue skies". OUCH! Soon the palm trees will be growing! LOL! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

120. cyclonebuster 2:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Dr.Rood, How long would it take a catagory 5 hurricane (30 mile wide eye) parked in one spot over the Gulfstream to upwell enough cold water to restore the Northern Arctic Ice during the summer to pre-industrial revolution extents? Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

121. cyclonebuster 2:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

123. cyclonebuster 2:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: By the way, if you are wondering about the discrepancy between NOAA and NASA in their recent monthly global temperatures or their rankings of 2010 so far to 1998 (recent months appear to be just tracking 1998 in NOAA's data because they have had 2010 and 1998 tied for several months now while GISS has been warmer with 1998 only 4th warmest to date), this shows why (NOAA doesn't include the Arctic or Antarctic): October 2010 looks comparable to or even cooler than 1998 at lower latitudes, between 30S and 50N, but is overall about 0.24%uFFFDC warmer when the polar regions, which are around 3%uFFFDC (and locally as much as 11%uFFFDC) warmer than 1998, are included (HADCRUT is even worse, excluding even some areas in lower latitudes). Correct Michael! For January/October 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.63C (1.13F) above the 20th century average of 14.1C (57.4F) and tied with 1998 as the warmest January/October period on record. Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

124. cyclonebuster 2:48 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
No wonder why ice extent level is below 2007 now! Can you see why we need to "COOL IT" with Geo-Engineering? Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

125. cyclonebuster 2:53 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
So what will November bring for world temperatures? Any all time high records? Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

126. cyclonebuster 2:58 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
BBL very tired! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

128. cyclonebuster 8:50 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
According to Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the reduction of sea ice in the Arctic will have a growing impact on temperatures in the rest of the world. "What we have seen is a rather pronounced reduction in the extent of sea ice. At the end of summer now we have 40 percent less sea ice than we had say during the 1970s," Serreze said. "We are losing that insulator so what we are seeing now are big fluxes in heat from the ocean to the atmosphere," he said. "Since everything is connected together in the climate system what happens up there can influence what happens down here and I am talking about in the middle latitudes." The other thing that the scientists said is changing, along with climate, is how they confront skeptics who question the reality of climate change and the extent of humans' role in causing it. "There are still many of us who like to sit in our office or go into the field and just do our science and not enter into the fray, but I think that is changing," said Serreze. "We have to become more involved," he added. "We have to become better communicators. Scientists are not always good communicators of the issues but this is part of a learning curve and we have got to face that." Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

129. cyclonebuster 9:09 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Hundreds of polar bears were spotted on the west coast of Hudson Bay earlier this week, waiting for ice that is almost a month late forming. But a fierce storm in the region Thursday has temperatures dropping and ice forming, which could be good news for the bears. "It's just howling," Luc Desjardins, of the Canadian Ice Service, says of the storm that could change the fortunes of the hungry bears.Until the storm hit, record-breaking conditions in the western Arctic this fall had kept the ice at bay. Temperatures up to 14 C above normal in one Arctic region in November prevented the formation of ice which was almost a month behind schedule as of Monday, says Desjardins. He says the ice cover was the lowest since 1971, covering just 1.5 per cent of the sea, compared to the average of 20 per cent by mid-November. Polar bears need sea ice to hunt for seals and other marine mammals. And after slim pickings on land in the summer, they are ready to get back on the ice come fall. Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

130. Mark Kane, Editor 11:49 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting cyclonebuster: Hundreds of polar bears were spotted on the west coast of Hudson Bay earlier this week, waiting for ice that is almost a month late forming. But a fierce storm in the region Thursday has temperatures dropping and ice forming, which could be good news for the bears. "It's just howling," Luc Desjardins, of the Canadian Ice Service, says of the storm that could change the fortunes of the hungry bears.Until the storm hit, record-breaking conditions in the western Arctic this fall had kept the ice at bay. Temperatures up to 14 C above normal in one Arctic region in November prevented the formation of ice which was almost a month behind schedule as of Monday, says Desjardins. He says the ice cover was the lowest since 1971, covering just 1.5 per cent of the sea, compared to the average of 20 per cent by mid-November. Polar bears need sea ice to hunt for seals and other marine mammals. And after slim pickings on land in the summer, they are ready to get back on the ice come fall. Link Warmer temperatures increase the capacity to hold water and the rains in the Midwest -- Northfield flooded in September, the Minneapolis folks were shocked by 20 inches of snow last week -- yes, snow shocked Minnesotans! -- and the rains this summer in Iowa created such fertile mosquito breeding conditions that people couldn't go out to garden -- well, this is increase in rainfall is something to noodle! Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 23 Comments: 14

131. cyclonebuster 11:52 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Quoting yourgardenshow: Warmer temperatures increase the capacity to hold water and the rains in the Midwest -- Northfield flooded in September, the Minneapolis folks were shocked by 20 inches of snow last week -- yes, snow shocked Minnesotans! -- and the rains this summer in Iowa created such fertile mosquito breeding conditions that people couldn't go out to garden -- well, this is increase in rainfall is something to noodle! Reminds me of the same thing happening in the great lakes being so warm and causing more moisture which makes more snow. Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

132. cyclonebuster 11:59 PM GMT on November 19, 2010
Surge in fatal shark attacks blamed on global warming Three decades have passed since the movie Jaws sent terrified bathers scrambling out of the ocean. But as any beach lifeguard knows, there's still nothing like a gory shark attack to stoke public hysteria and paranoia. Two deaths in the waters off California and Mexico last week and a spate of shark-inflicted injuries to surfers off Florida's Atlantic coast have left beachgoers seeking an explanation for a sudden surge in the number of strikes. In the first four months of this year, there were four fatal shark attacks worldwide, compared with one in the whole of 2007, according to the International Shark Attack File at the Florida Museum of Natural History in Gainesville. 'The one thing that's affecting shark attacks more than anything else is human activity,' said Dr George Burgess of Florida University, a shark expert who maintains the database. 'As the population continues to rise, so does the number of people in the water for recreation. And as long as we have an increase in human hours in the water, we will have an increase in shark bites.' Some experts suggest that an abundance of seals has attracted high numbers of sharks, while others believe that overfishing has hit their food chain. 'I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it's a convenient excuse,' Burgess said. Another contributory factor to the location of shark attacks could be global warming and rising sea temperatures. 'You'll find that some species will begin to appear in places they didn't in the past with some regularity,' he said. Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

133. cyclonebuster 1:08 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
The Tunnel switch is in the Gulfstream! By suggesting there is light at the end of the global warming tunnel, Timoner has made “Cool It” a hopeful film. We just have to know where to look for the switch. Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

136. cyclonebuster 1:25 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: Not only that, it also melted much faster than usual last spring, resulting in a much longer ice-free season; in fact, it never really completely froze over for any length of time (max appears to be about 1.25 million km2): I bet by the time we have a ice free summer North Arctic we will also have a year round ice free Hudson Bay! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

137. cyclonebuster 1:29 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Here's a BIG OUCH thus far! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

139. cyclonebuster 1:46 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: Wow: Beijing Air Quality "Crazy Bad," Says US Embassy The pollution in Beijing was so heavy Friday that the US Embassy ran out of conventional adjectives to describe the air quality. While the embassy's website later removed the term "crazy bad," the air pollution remains a health hazard for city residents. Pretty sad all they need are Tunnels in the Kuroshio Current to run electric cars. Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

141. cyclonebuster 2:03 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Pretty sad again. Another coal mine explosion that the Tunnels could have prevented.When you will ya'll ever learn. Tutoring is becoming very exhausting! img src=""> Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

142. cyclonebuster 2:10 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: Check this out (look at where 2010 is now): Yes, a new record low for November 18 (since 1998, which is the dark red line all the way up there), at least on this channel (not as cool yet on the two lower levels, and SSTs have risen back to 2008 levels, well above 2007). Considering that the current La Nina appears to be peaking earlier than in 2007-2008 (most indicators have been weakening) and the dip in SSTs is doing the same, I'd say that we are having the equivalent of the January 2008 drop right now, at least in the satellite data (the deniers will be saying "Look at how much the temperature dropped from November 2009 to November 2010!"). One record low. Ouch! Tunnels can force many more! The movie "COOL IT" says we need to force many more record cooling events with geo-engineering. Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

143. cyclonebuster 3:39 AM GMT on November 20, 2010
Tunnels stop this! Measuring fast-melting Arctic sea ice You've probably seen pictures of stranded polar bears and heard that global warming is causing the melting of Arctic sea ice -- that is, floating ice formed from freezing ocean surface water. But you may imagine, as most people do, that this distant phenomenon is unfolding gradually over a centuries-long time frame. Julienne Stroeve, a climate scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., has compiled detailed measurements that melt away any such misconceptions. Stroeve is closely monitoring the extent of Arctic sea ice, and her research shows that dramatic changes are occurring right now -- far faster than most experts anticipated and with enormous consequences for the whole planet, not just the Arctic region.For instance, during the warmest part of 2010, the total amount of Arctic sea ice -- the so-called "seasonal minimum" -- was the third-smallest ever recorded. The smallest and second-smallest seasonal minimums were measured in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Natural variability, including factors like cloud cover, can easily explain differences in melting from year to year, Stroeve notes. But the big news is that the smallest amounts of Arctic sea ice ever measured have all occurred in recent years. "Basically, ever since 2002, we've had one pronounced record minimum after another," she says. "The data all point to a strong warming signal." Stroeve explains that highly reliable data on the extent of Arctic sea ice has been collected since 1978. From then until now, she has found clear evidence of a 30-year melting trend, which, she says, "cannot be easily explained away by natural variability." But her work is even more notable for its findings about the speed of the change. Over this same 30 years, a relatively brief period, Stroeve has found that some 40 percent of the region's summer (or more precisely, September) ice has melted. The fast pace of melting is seen even more dramatically, she explains, when one considers the age of the Arctic ice. Many parts of the Arctic Ocean freeze each year during the coldest months. But only ice that lasts throughout the year gradually becomes thicker over the course of consecutive seasons. "In the 1980s, the Arctic contained roughly 386,000 square miles of ice that was determined to be at least five years old," she says. Now, "at the end of the melt season in September, only 22,000 square miles of such older, thicker ice remains." In other words, the region has already lost more than 97 percent of the thicker year-round ice that existed just three decades ago. As she explains, "all the climatic processes seem to be pushing rapidly toward a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean." Stroeve says that initially she was as surprised by the data as anyone else. "I didn't think global warming was even happening in the early 1990s when I began this work," she says. Back then, some climate models were projecting that carbon emissions would lead to a pronounced warming trend at the poles. But Stroeve was always more interested in actual measurements than in climate modeling. "I think I was lured into studying the poles by the prospect of adventurous fieldwork in Greenland or the Alps," she says with a laugh. The daughter of an aerospace engineer, Stroeve had always exhibited a strong aptitude for math and science and an adventuresome spirit. From childhood through her high school years, her dream was to be an astronaut, she says, and she might have continued on that track if she hadn't realized that her susceptibility to motion sickness was a serious impediment to working in space. Her love of adventure continues in her work today, in which she makes regular research trips to the Arctic and Greenland to measure ice thickness and other snow and ice measurements. It might not be space travel, but Stroeve says her fieldwork has been as exciting as she could have hoped. "When I first visited Greenland, it was the most stunning landscape I had ever seen," she says. Along with her research in the polar regions, much of the data Stroeve analyzes comes from satellites that detect passive microwave radiation. As she explains, the higher brightness of ice in the microwave part of the spectrum can be seen by satellites even through cloud cover. "In the often-cloudy polar regions, that makes it an incredibly useful tool, providing data in which we have a high degree of confidence," she says. These detailed satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice led Stroeve to shed her initial doubts about global warming. "My views changed as I studied the emerging data," she says. "With record low sea-ice extents year after year, it became clear that a significant warming trend was underway." Looking closely at the data, Stroeve realized that a phenomenon called Arctic amplification, a form of positive feedback, is accelerating the warming trend, causing it to occur many years sooner than most climate models had projected. Arctic amplification occurs primarily because water absorbs far more heat than ice does. On average, Stroeve explains, water absorbs almost 93 percent of all the incoming solar radiation, whereas the white surface of snow-covered ice reflects about 80 percent of incoming solar radiation back into space. As more and more of the Arctic Ocean sea ice melts over the summer months, it hastens further warming, Stroeve explains. She and her colleagues at the National Snow and Ice Data Center have measured the effect, showing that in areas where summer ice has disappeared, local autumn air temperatures have been more than 5 degrees F higher than the long-term average. The potential of such feedbacks to cause abrupt climate change as the Arctic Ocean becomes nearly ice-free in the warm season drew widespread attention to Stroeve's work in 2007. In that record-breaking warm year, the Arctic Ocean lost more than one-quarter of its remaining ice. "Because new ice can't get very thick in one season, it is more vulnerable to annual temperature changes, as we saw in 2007," she says. The possibility of sudden shifts in the region's climate, and thus the planet's climate, is the most frightening implication of her research, Stroeve says. The quick and volatile changes in Arctic sea ice remind us that the geological record contains clear evidence of abrupt climatic changes in the planet's history. "We know that Arctic ice has historically helped keep the Northern Hemisphere cool," Stroeve says. "Without it, given atmospheric circulation, the planet will certainly warm more quickly. But we don't know enough about the system to fully project how swift the changes might turn out to be." The prospect of sudden climate change is certainly scary, Stroeve says. But she adds that, because the stakes are so high, her decision to study Arctic sea ice has proven a more exciting choice than she ever imagined. As she puts it, "Not a lot of people were looking at sea ice when I began my research. But especially after 2007, which took everyone by surprise, it has become something that climate scientists are intensely interested to know about." Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

145. atmoaggie 4:37 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL: I wonder what is happening here; look at the warming up around 50 mb, even as the lower atmosphere cools (seems like something weird happened around July/August; look around the 5 mb level) Could that be from tropopause folds? There was some banter about concerning one of the typhoons causing a significant event...cannot remember which or when, exactly... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

146. cyclonebuster 4:45 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Could that be from tropopause folds? There was some banter about concerning one of the typhoons causing a significant event...cannot remember which or when, exactly... Quoting MichaelSTL: I wonder what is happening here; look at the warming up around 50 mb, even as the lower atmosphere cools (seems like something weird happened around July/August; look around the 5 mb level): "Something weird" might be the (highly unusual and only the second one on record) sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in the Southern Hemisphere at that time: Also, here is the Northern Hemisphere (actually, only about 65N, 65S for the SH): The NH SSW didn't have any dramatic or lasting effects on the tropics, and I don't think La Nina would do that; 2007 doesn't show any such changes. Oh, the AMSU data also reflects what is happening in the first image - the atmosphere centered around 250-400 mb has now become massively cooler than last year and in fact has now reached an all-time record low (since 1998, the previous record low occurred in 2008, followed by 2006; this would probably be the mid-tropospheric temperature, which is also reported in addition to the lower troposphere, and so much for the satellite having a warming bias, either that, or it is actually a lot cooler now): (click to enlarge, I added a line to show where 2010 now is) Meanwhile, here is the temperature at 50 mb, which has risen dramatically over the past couple weeks (2010 is the orange line, which interestingly has risen from daily record lows early in the year; 2009 has been the lowest so far): (click to enlarge) Also, I wonder exactly what data source the CPC uses for their graphs (from here); they go back to 1979 so I am guessing that they use satellite data, so would simply be a different representation of what the UAH AMSU page shows. A new study finds that the warm Atlantic Ocean current known as the Gulf Stream could influence the climate of remote regions by pumping heat high into the atmosphere above it. The powerful current, which flows up from the Gulf of Mexico along the U.S. east coast and across the Atlantic to western Europe, is known to influence the formation of cyclones and clouds as well as to moderate the climates of the regions it touches. But Japanese researchers wondered if it had further-reaching effects. Combining high-resolution satellite data with water analyses, they discovered a pattern of airflow that reaches seven miles (10 kilometers) high, well into the upper part of the troposphere, the lowest and most massive layer of Earth's atmosphere. Winds blow toward the warm Gulf Stream from the colder waters on its western edge, causing a warm updraft and a consequent narrow rainy region along the current. The upward airflow (depicted in this image as vertical streaks) generates clouds in the upper troposphere that branch out and travel toward Europe. Reporting in Nature, the researchers note that this pattern suggests a way that the Gulf Stream might influence both local and distant climates good to know in case global warming hits the brakes on the current as it is expected to do. Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

147. cyclonebuster 4:46 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Just more reason to "COOL IT". Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

148. cyclonebuster 1:20 PM GMT on November 21, 2010
UPWELLING Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

149. cyclonebuster 1:26 PM GMT on November 21, 2010
Oops! Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

150. cyclonebuster 2:14 PM GMT on November 21, 2010
Upwelling is a good thing and will allow for a population explosion! Upwelling is an oceanographic phenomenon that involves wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, and usually nutrient-rich water towards the ocean surface, replacing the warmer, usually nutrient-depleted surface water. The increased availability in upwelling regions results in high levels of primary productivity and thus fishery production. Approximately 25% of the total global marine fish catches come from five upwellings that occupy only 5% of the total ocean area. [1] Upwellings that are driven by coastal currents or diverging open ocean have the greatest impact on nutrient enriched waters and global fishery yields. [1] [2]Types Upwelling animated.gif Upwelling near the coast due to Ekman transport perpendicular to the wind in the northern hemisphere. The major upwellings in the ocean are associated with the divergence of currents that bring deeper, colder, nutrient rich waters to the surface. There are at least five types of upwelling: coastal upwelling, large-scale wind-driven upwelling in the ocean interior, upwelling associated with eddies, topographically-associated upwelling, and broad-diffusive upwelling in the ocean interior.Other sources * Local and intermittent upwellings may occur when offshore islands, ridges, or seamounts cause a deflection of deep currents, providing a nutrient rich area in otherwise low productivity ocean areas. Examples include upwellings around the Galapagos Islands and the Seychelles Islands, which have major pelagic fisheries. [1] * Upwelling can also occur when a tropical cyclone transits an area, usually when moving at speeds of less than 5 mph (8 km/h). The churning of a cyclone eventually draws up cooler water from lower layers of the ocean. This causes the cyclone to weaken. * Artificial upwelling is produced by devices that use ocean wave energy or ocean thermal energy conversion to pump water to the surface. Ocean wind turbines are also known to produce upwellings. [4] Ocean wave devices have been shown to produce plankton blooms. [5] Link Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

151. cyclonebuster 2:17 PM GMT on November 21, 2010
BTW they need to add one more type of UPWELLING! "TUNNEL UPWELLING" Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 19032

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