Validation and the Scientific Organization: Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling (4)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 4:51 AM GMT on July 04, 2011

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Validation and the Scientific Organization: Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling (4)

This entry is the last I will be writing about organizing U.S. climate modeling, software, and open source communities – for a while. At the end of this entry are links to the blogs/articles in a couple of series. I am going to start by quoting a comment from atmoaggie on the previous entry.

“The difference between all of those (rbr: types of models in a previous comment) and climate models is the ability to study their validity.

I would like to see a climate modeling 10 year forecast of some parameters, such as, maybe, average SST for the month of June 2021. Too specific? How about average global SST for JJA (summer) 2021. Still too specific? Maybe the average global SST for the next 10 years.

I, too, work in modeling. In storm surge modeling, one can very easily tune a model to better match the results for one storm (by adjusting air-sea drag, e.g.) only to find that the model is not useful for forecasting as another parameter or physical calculation is incorrect (the sea floor friction formulation, e.g.)

I bring this up to illustrate what can go wrong when modeling a hindcast, tuning to match observations, and applying that model to forecasts. And climate is far more complex, I think, than tides and TC wind and pressure-forced storm surges.”

I want to bring together two streams of thought that I have pursued over the past few months – validation and the scientific organization. First, I will discuss whether or not climate models can be validated and then argue that the development of a validation plan is at the center of developing a scientific organization.

Validation: As suggested in some of my earlier entries the question about whether or not climate models can be validated is a controversial issue. The controversy lies, first, in philosophy. The formal discussion of whether or not climate models can or cannot be validated often starts with a greatly cited paper by Naomi Oreskes et al. entitled Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences. In fact quoting the first two sentences in the abstract:

“Verification and validation of numerical models of natural systems is impossible. This is because natural systems are never closed and because model results are always nonunique.”

Oreskes et al. argues that the performance of the models can be “confirmed” by comparison with observations. However, if the metric of “validation” is a measure of absolute truth, then such absolute validation is not possible. By such a definition little of the science of complex systems, which would include most biological science, medical science, and nuclear weapons management, can stand up to formal validation.

I will return to the stream I started with the quote from atmoaggie, which makes reference to storm surge model (see here for excellent discussion of storm surges Resio and Westerink). The point of the comment is that the storm surge model can be tuned and thereby calibrated based on observations of past storm surges and theory, but the model may still fail in future predictions of storm surges. This points out a weakness in the development of models of natural systems, that the adjustments of the models to represent a historical situation does not assure that model correctly represents the physics of cause and effect. In fact, this is a general problem with modeling of complex natural systems, if you get the answer “right,” then that does not mean you get it right for the right reason. Hence, in the spirit of Oreskes et al. validation is not possible – there is no absolute to be had.

Yet, aren’t storm surge models useful and usable? The same situation is true for weather models and river forecast models, their correctness cannot be assured in any absolute sense, but aren’t they useful and usable? Atmoaggie poses a set of predictions, all of which are reasonable propositions, that may or may not be convincing to him or her. These do not represent a complete set of metrics to evaluate models, and the success or failure of these predictions does not state in any absolute sense whether or not the models have usable information. There are many more elements of model evaluation that determine our level of confidence in the use of models.

It is easy, therefore, to establish that models that cannot be formally validated can be both useful and usable. The results of these models might not be certain, but the degree of confidence that can be attributed to their calculations is very high. This confidence is, in general, established by many forms of model evaluation and additional sources of relevant information, most importantly, observations and basic physical principles.

Validation, verification, evaluation, certification, confirmation, calibration: All of the words in this list have been used in discussions of how to assess the quality of models. For some, there are nuanced differences between the words, but in the general discussion they are all likely to take on the same meaning – some quantitative measure of model quality. The word “validation;” however, is special. Within political or philosophical arguments, the statement “models cannot be validated,” carries a powerful message, especially if one establishes as a principle that the elimination or the reduction of uncertainty is required prior to taking action (see Shearer and Rood). Many scientists take on the mantra that climate models cannot be validated. When I worked at NASA, the culture was that measurements of temperature (for example) could be validated, but that models could not. But if one is talking about temperatures from satellites over a deep layer of the atmosphere, in the spirit of Oreskes et al., can satellite temperature measurements be validated? We can state with stunning confidence that the satellite temperatures are within a certain closeness of a more intuitive or accepted measure of temperature – like a thermometer on a balloon. This is, to me, more calibration than validation, but in my world at NASA, calibration was done in a lab with standards (and that is why we have NIST). At NASA we talked about models being “evaluated.”

Other arguments I have heard about climate modes defying validation are based on to what do we chose to validate against – what is our standard? Suppose that you are interested in how well the model represents the Pacific Ocean, and I am interested in how well it represents the Arctic Ocean. And the scientist down the hall wants to know how well it represents the ice-age cycles, and another wants to know how well it represents the 20th century temperature variability. There is no absolute way to make these choices. More fundamentally, if it is a climate model then how do we measure “climate?”

The list goes on – I have frequently heard arguments of one community making critical remarks about the “science” of other communities. The weather forecast community relies strongly on forecast skill scores, but these measures are by no means unique and for a variety of reasons often only indirectly relevant to the quality of climate models. There is no fundamental reason that an excellent climate model would automatically be an excellent weather forecasting model. The opposite is true as well. Over the years of my career there have been criticisms of climate science by other fields of physics. The gist of their arguments is that they don’t validate models the same way we do, and since we do a good job, they don’t. These arguments make great fuel for political argument and the maintenance of doubt. (Here is an interesting article by Oreskes and Renouf.)

Validation is, therefore, both controversial and important. I pose that validation is at the center of the development of the scientific organization.

Validation and the Scientific Organization: The definition I have posed for the scientific organization is an organization that as a whole functions according to the scientific method. Therefore, if it is a climate modeling organization the model development path, the modeling problems that are being addressed, are determined in a unified way. In that determination, it is required that ways to measure success be identified. This leads to a strategy of evaluation that is determined prior to the development and implementation of model software. With the existence of an evaluation strategy, a group of scientists who are independent of the developers can be formed to serve as the evaluation team.

The development of an evaluation plan requires that a fundamental question be asked? What is the purpose of the model development? What is the application? If the model is being developed to do “science,” then there is no real constraint that balances the interests of one scientific problem versus another. There is little or no way to set up a ladder of priorities.

Again, I will emphasize that to achieve this, and it can be achieved, is a matter of governance and management. It is a process of developing organizational rather than individual goals. It is a myth to imagine that if a group of individuals are each making the “best” scientific decisions, the accumulation of their activities will be the best integrated science. Science and scientists are not immune to the The Tragedy of the Commons. If one wants to achieve scientifically robust results from a unified body of knowledge, then one needs to manage the components of that body of knowledge so that as a whole the scientific method is honored. Enough on that pulpit.

Back to evaluation and validation – Minimally, the arguments about the nuanced meaning of validation and evaluation are a subject about which the climate modeling community needs to develop a standard. By my interpretation, the evaluation of climate models can be structured and quantified as “validation.”

When I was at NASA I had a programmatic requirement to develop a validation plan. And, yes, my friends and colleagues would tell me that that validation was “impossible.” But I am stubborn, and not so smart, so I persisted and still persist with the notion. That old plan can still be found here in Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) with a Focus on Version 2.

The software we produced was an amalgam of weather forecasting and climate modeling. For the validation plan the strategy was taken to define a quantitative baseline of model performance for a set of geophysical phenomena. These phenomena were broadly studied and simulated well enough that they described a credibility threshold for system performance. They were chosen to represent the climate system. Important aspects of this validation approach were that it is defined by a specific suite of phenomena, formally separated validation from development, and relied on both quantitative and qualitative analysis.

The validation plan separated "scientific" validation from "systems" validation. It included steps of routine point-by-point monitoring of simulation and observations, formal measures of quality assessment by measure of fit of simulations and observations, and calculation of skill scores to a set of "established forecasts." There was a melding of methodologies of practices of the study of weather and the study of climate. We distinguished the attributes of the scientific validation from the systems validation. The systems validation, focused on the credibility threshold described above, used simulations that were of longer time scales than the established forecasts and brought attention to a wider range of variables important to climate. The scientific validation was a more open-ended process, often requiring novel scientific investigation of new problems. The modeling software system was released for scientific validation and use after a successful systems validation.

The end result of this process was the quantitative description of the modeling system against a standard set of measures over the course of one modeling release to the next. Did it meet the criterion of the absolute validation? No. Did it provide a defensible quantitative foundation for scientific software and its application? Yes.

All told, it does little to base a body of scientific knowledge on the premise that validation is “impossible.” Rather than following such a premise, which immediately devalues the knowledge base, it is more useful to develop a systematic approach to robust, appropriate validation. This stands to represent the complexity of the Earth’s climate and its investigation that serves not only the scientific method, but the communication of that science to other scientists, and to those with a stake in those scientific results. It sets a standard.

r


Open Climate Modeling:

Greening of the Desert

Stickiness and Climate Models

Open Source Communities, What are the Problems?

A Culture of Checking


Organizing U.S. Climate Modeling:

Something New in the Past Decade?

The Scientific Organization

A Science-Organized Community

Validation and the Scientific Organization

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NASA debunks ocean warming alarmists.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/08/deep-ocean-te mperature-change-spaghetti-15-climate-models-versu s-observations/
Dr. Roy Spencer - Deep Ocean Spaghetti:

The deep-ocean temperature trends in the 15 models which had complete ocean data archived for the period 1955-1999 are surprising, because I expected to see warming at all depths. Instead, the models exhibit wildly different behaviors, with deep-ocean cooling just as likely as warming depending upon the model and ocean layer in question (click for the full-size version):


Three of the models actually produced average cooling of the full depth of the oceans while the surface warmed, which seems physically implausible to say the least. More on that in a minute.

The most common difference between the models and the observations down to 700 m (the deepest level for which we have Levitus observations to compare to) is that the models tend to warm the ocean too much. Of those models that don’t, almost all produce unexpected cooling below the mixed layer (approximately the top 100 m of the ocean).

From what I understand, the differences between the various models’ temperature trends are due to some combination of at least 3 processes:

1) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY: More sensitive models should store more heat in the ocean over time; this is the relationship we want to exploit to estimate the sensitivity of the real climate system from the rates of observed warming compared to the rates of warming in the climate models.

2) CHANGES IN VERTICAL MIXING OVER TIME: The deep ocean is filled with cold, dense water formed at high latitudes, while the upper layers are warmed by the sun. Vertical mixing acts to reduce that temperature difference. Thus, if there is strengthening of ocean mixing over time, there would be deep warming and upper ocean cooling, as the vertical temperature differential is reduced. On the other hand, weakening mixing over time would do the opposite, with deep ocean cooling and upper ocean warming. These two effects, which can be seen in a number of the models, should cancel out over the full depth of the ocean.

3) SPURIOUS TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE DEEP OCEAN This is a problem that the models apparently have not fully addressed. Because it takes about ~1,000 years for the ocean circulation to overturn, it takes a very long run of a climate model before the model’s deep ocean settles into a stable temperature, say to 0.1 deg. C or less. While some knowledgeable expert reading this might want to correct me, it appears to me that some of these models have spurious temperature trends, unrelated to the CO2 (and other) forcings imposed on the models during 1955-1999. This is likely due to insufficient “spin-up” time for the model to reach a stable deep-ocean temperature. Until this problem is fixed, I don’t see how models can address the extent to which the extra heat from “global warming” is (or isn’t) being mixed into the deep ocean. Maybe the latest versions of the climate models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

You complain about me using a five-year period--and in response use a one-month period?


LOL. Almost missed this, since a new blog entry was created. I provided a link for you to check other months as well. Anyway, someone in the future provided a link to a graph of a longer time period [Cue Twilight music], and I'm giving it below.

From here near the bottom of the page. See comment № 197 of the next blog for a more extensive response.
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
№ 546


C'mon...That's only a five year data period; it would be more interesting to see that graph over a longer time period. For some additional perspective, see the map below:



From here; Note: You can look at other months and years as well.

Certainly July 1934 would be completely off the charts in the graph in № 546.

You complain about me using a five-year period--and in response use a one-month period?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
well you said it stopped warming do to upwelling
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Quoting nymore:
But yet according to the graph it is not notice the red line at the end please explain also more upwelling causing sea temps to rise please explain also thank you


Upwelling causes cooling downwelling causes warming.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
But yet according to the graph it is not notice the red line at the end please explain also more upwelling causing sea temps to rise please explain also thank you
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Quoting nymore:
Should it be getting warmer than?


Correct.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Should it be getting warmer than?
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Quoting nymore:
So the ocean is cooling not warming?


More warming than cooling.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
So the ocean is cooling not warming?
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Quoting nymore:
The red line shows no warming


Between what years?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting nymore:
Also it should not stop rising because of man made co2 but it does stop why?


More upwelling.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
The red line shows no warming
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Quoting nymore:
Here NOAA Link


Looks like a rising trend to me.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
You said global remember not regional
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Right below that the article also said this.

Link


"The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost three degrees Celsius, which led to a dramatic melting of sea ice. At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany, remains slightly in positive warming territory."
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
5 year running mean no increase
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Here NOAA Link
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Also it should not stop rising because of man made co2 but it does stop why?
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There is no cooling trend when you take out El-Nino and La-Nina the graph shows no warming or cooling. Maybe you should read the article which goes along with it.
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1999 to 2008 was used to show a cooling trend on a trending graph that is showing a definite rise in temperatures over a longer period of time. They could have show the same results in the 1937 to 1946 time period if they wanted to, 1877 to 1886 and 1959 to 1968.
But the overall trend on that graph is still upwards.



Now do you have NOAAs data to compare?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
I would love some
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Quoting nymore:
I'm waiting for your answer. Here let me help possible answers yes, no, maybe


Yes. Correct you want proof?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
I'm waiting for your answer. Here let me help possible answers yes, no, maybe
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So you are saying they cherry picked their own data
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They do Climate Prediction and Research
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
What is it then?
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Quoting nymore:
you don't know do you


Of course I do.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
you don't know do you
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Quoting nymore:
DO you know what the hadley center is? please answer


Which one?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting RustyShackleford:


Did you not think the warming was from below...

Hasn't SST's been cooler than the last few years.


Cooler no warmer yes.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
DO you know what the hadley center is? please answer
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Quoting nymore:
Global temperaturesLink


LOL! A 2008 graph with cherry picked data on it. What does 2011 look like now on that same graph. Also where is the same NOAA graph and how about posting it too so we can compare the two.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Quoting RustyShackleford:


See there you go being hypocritical

I said Sea Ice is regional because you apparently don't know this.......

You inferred that I am talking about regional records which I never once said..

Sea Ice=Regional

Your rebuttal proves this.


Sea ice has global consequences unlike other regional areas. If you don't believe me ask Dr. Rood.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
Rusty the only thing he just pointed out is what is expected from La-Nina natural cycle
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Global temperaturesLink
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Quoting RustyShackleford:


Sea ice is regional too!!!!!!



Since you want to talk regional then have at it.

Marathon Heat Wave Roasts Much of Country

DALLAS -- The temperature setting is stuck on broil across a swath of the Midwest and South, with Dallas and Oklahoma City sweltering through 100-degree heat for at least 10 days in a row.

Forecasters warned on Monday that the extreme heat could continue for most of the week and perhaps beyond. At the same time, many people won't be able to cool off by taking a dip: Swimming pools in some cities have closed because of budget cuts.

Heat advisories and excessive-heat warnings were issued Monday for 17 states in the Midwest and South. For Tuesday, the National Weather Service issued heat advisories for much of the East Coast, from Georgia to Connecticut, where temperatures are expected in the upper 90s but will feel as hot as 105 because of the humidity.

"It says a lot when you are dealing with such an expansive area of heat alerts," said National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro.

Hutchinson, Kan., had reached 103 by Monday afternoon after hitting a scorching 112 on Sunday. (Records haven't been kept there long enough to tell if it was a new high for the date.) The mercury hit 99 in Joplin, Mo., by the afternoon after topping out on Sunday at 106, breaking the record of 104 for the date, set in 1980.

Oklahoma City has hit 100 degrees or higher -- 110 on Saturday -- every day since June 29, including Monday, making it 13 in a row. The record there is 22 consecutive days of 100 degree-plus weather, set in 1936.

Dallas recorded its 10th-straight day of 100-degree weather Monday. The city hit 100 for nearly three straight weeks as recently as 2006, and the National Weather Service issued a heat advisory Monday afternoon for the Dallas-Fort Worth area for the first time since June 18. The advisory will remain in effect until Wednesday night.

In 1980, the Dallas-Fort Worth area endured 42 days in a row of 100-degree-and-over heat.

Triple-digit highs are expected through the weekend in Dallas, and there is little chance of rain to cool things down.

"It's breaking daily records, but when you're talking about a record string of days -- we're not there yet," Vaccaro said. "We're in the midst of a heat wave that's not over yet."

On Monday, 87-year-old R.F. Lanham was taking the heat in stride as he picked weeds in his shaded front yard in Dallas. "I've seen a lot of hot summers," he said.

As 40-year-old Sally Smith loaded two of her children into her minivan as she left a spin class at a Dallas YMCA, she said that even though she had lived in Texas for 18 years, the hot weather was hard to get used to.

"You feel like your skin is baking," the Michigan native said.

In Fort Worth, all of the city's pools are closed because of budget cuts. Through a partnership with the YMCA, Fort Worth residents can swim at four of its pools for two hours a day without a membership.

Authorities said a 51-year-old man suffered heat stroke and died Sunday because his mobile home in Granite City, Ill., had no working air conditioner. His body temperature was 104 when he arrived at the hospital.

In Tahlequah, Okla., 56-year-old David Vaughan, who works construction at water treatment plants, said he was using survival skills he learned while working in Kuwait.

"In Kuwait, we had a saying: Walk slow and drink a lot of water," he said.

In El Paso, Texas, 67-year-old Jesus Franco was the grateful recipient of a fan from the Texas Department of Family and Protective Services. Franco, who is blind, said that he had a small air conditioning unit installed in his home last week, but even then, "at night it gets so hot you can't sleep."

As the stream of air cooled his shirtless torso Monday, he said, "This is much nicer."

Felix Cabrera, an employee of the agency giving out the fans, said: "With so many people unemployed and the population getting older, we are getting more calls."

In New Orleans, the heat was, as usual, heavy and suffocating -- but just under 95 degrees, cool enough to allow the mule-drawn carriages to continue riding through the French Quarter. When the mercury hits 95, tourist guides are prohibited from working their mules.

Lorna Taylor, a guide and horse trainer, kept a close eye on her mule, Elvis. She threw snacks into his trough to force him to dunk his head in the water. But she wasn't worried.

"Mules are desert-dwellers," she said, sweat glistening on her brow. "So this is a walk in the park."

Link


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
What do you want because I do not know
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№ 546
Quoting Neapolitan:
That spike at the right-edge in the left-hand graph? I wouldn't worry about it; it's just a coincidence.

Click for larger image
Uh-oh


From today's New York Times:

"COLQUITT, Ga -- The heat and the drought are so bad in this southwest corner of Georgia that hogs can barely eat. Corn, a lucrative crop with a notorious thirst, is burning up in fields. Cotton plants are too weak to punch through soil so dry it might as well be pavement.

"Farmers with the money and equipment to irrigate are running wells dry in the unseasonably early and particularly brutal national drought that some say could rival the Dust Bowl days%u2026.

"In Texas, where the drought is the worst, virtually no part of the state has been untouched. City dwellers and ranchers have been tormented by excessive heat and high winds. As they have been in the southwest, wildfires are chewing through millions of acres%u2026.

"Most troubling is that the drought, which could go down as one of the nation%u2019s worst, has come on extra hot and extra early...

"Oklahoma has had only 28 percent of its normal summer rainfall and the heat has blasted past 90 degrees for a month.

"The question, of course, becomes why. In a spring and summer in which weather news has been dominated by epic floods and tornadoes, it is hard to imagine that nearly a third of the country is facing an equally daunting but very different kind of natural disaster."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Again, don't worry about it. I'm sure it's all just coincidence. ;-)


C'mon...That's only a five year data period; it would be more interesting to see that graph over a longer time period. For some additional perspective, see the map below:



From here; Note: You can look at other months and years as well.

Certainly July 1934 would be completely off the charts in the graph in № 546.
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
Quoting nymore:
once again 502 graphic link explanation 503


LOL! Now it is the link in POSTS 502 and 503. I still don't see a GLOBAL link there do any of you?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
once again 502 graphic link explanation 503
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Quoting nymore:
As for the other posts Neapolitan claims that shows man made warming is causing the climate to change I showed a graphic from NOAA showing it is what should be expected from an El-Nino


RE: 560 Where are the graphic links? Show them.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
If you read the post you know where to find it or do you still need someone to hold your hand when you cross the street
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№ 539
Quoting JBastardi:


It's very funny that Neapolitan never attempts to refute your claims. Maybe he knows better. You wouldn't be his alter ego, would you? ;-)


In all fairness, he did respond to all but the last comment. Really, he had already given his interpretation of the data in my previous post, and I simply clarified my view as it compared to his. I'm not sure there was much more to say without further data.

Alter Ego? Maybe we're just the same person with dual personalities...LOL. I am kidding, of course.
Member Since: February 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
As for the other posts Neapolitan claims that shows man made warming is causing the climate to change I showed a graphic from NOAA showing it is what should be expected from a La-Nina
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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.