Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
Heat Waves (4) A Climate Case Study:
In the last article I wrote that the extreme events of 2011 were providing us with the opportunity to think about climate and how to cope with a warming world. The U.S. is experiencing an extreme heat event this week (Masters @ WU). This heat wave is the consequence of a strong, stationary high pressure system over the central U.S., and it will move to the east over the next few days. Back on July 14th The Capital Weather Gang did a nice write up on the forecast of the heat wave. At the end of this blog are links to my previous blogs on heat waves and human health.
When thinking about weather, climate, and extreme events an important idea is “persistence.” For example, a heat wave occurs when there are persistent high temperatures. Persistent weather patterns occur when high and low pressure systems get large and stuck; that is, they don’t move. In the Figure below, you need to imagine North America and the United States. There is a high pressure center over the proverbial Heartland. With blue arrows I have drawn the flow of air around the high pressure system, and in this case moist air. There is moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico and, in fact on the date when this was drawn, from the Pacific. This is common in the summer to see both the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific as sources of continental moisture.
Figure 1: Schematic of a high pressure system over the central United States in July. While generic, this is drawn to represent some of the specifics of 2011. The green-shaded area is where there have been floods in 2011. The brown-shaded area represents sustained drought in the southern part of the nation.
At the center of this high pressure system there is a suppression of rain, because the air is moving downward. This sets up a situation where the surface heats from the Sun’s energy. There is not much mixing and cooling, because of the suppression of the upward motion that produces rain. Hence, if this high pressure system gets stuck, then there is persistent heat. This is a classic summer heat wave.
Let’s think about it some more. There is lot of moisture being drawn around the edge of the high pressure system, and this moisture contributes to the discomfort of people. People – just a short aside about people: if we think about heat and health, then we are concerned about people’s ability to cool themselves. It is more difficult to cool people when it is humid because sweat does not evaporate. Suppose that in addition to this moisture, there is a region where the ground is soaked with water from flooding. Then on top of already moist air coming from the Gulf, there is local evaporation into the air being warmed by the Sun. If on the interior of the high, where the rain is suppressed, there is hot, wet air, then it becomes dangerous heat.
It’s not easy to derive a number that describes dangerous heat. But in much of the eastern U.S. a number that somehow combines temperature and humidity is useful. Meteorologists often use the heat index. It’s the summer time version of “it’s 98 degrees, but it feels like 105.” For moist climates, the heat index is one version of the “it feels like” temperature. Jeff Masters tells me that in Newton, Iowa yesterday, July 17, 2011, the heat index was 126 degrees F. (see here, and 131 F in Knoxville, Iowa on July 18)
Another measure of heat and humidity is the dew point; that is, the temperature at which dew forms, and effectively limits the nighttime low. The dew points in Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are currently very high and setting records. Here is a map of dew point for July 19, 2011.
Figure 2: Exceptionally high dew points centered on Iowa.
Now if I was a public health official, and I was trying to understand how a warming planet might impact my life, then here is how I would think about it. First, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific are going to be warmer, and hence, there will be more humid air. This will mean, with regard to human health for the central U.S., heat waves will become more dangerous, without necessarily becoming hotter. It is also reasonable to expect heat waves will become more frequent and last longer, because those persistent, stuck high pressure systems are, in part, forced by the higher sea surface temperatures. If I am a public health official here is my algorithm – heat waves are already important to my life, and they are likely to get more dangerous, more frequent, and of longer duration. But by how much? Do I need to know by how much before I decide on a plan for action?
If I think about the air being more humid, then I might expect to see trends in the heat index. I might expect to see trends in dew points, and trends in the nighttime minimum temperatures getting higher. (That’s where a greenhouse effect really matters.) I worry about persistent heat, warm nights, and the inability of people and buildings to cool themselves. I worry about their being dangerous heat in places where people and emergency rooms are not used to dangerous heat – not acclimated to heat – not looking for heat-related illness.
Let’s go back to the figure. Rain is suppressed in the middle of the high pressure system, but around the edge of the high pressure system it will rain; there will be storms. (see Figure 3 at the end) The air around the edge of high is warm and very wet. Wet air is energetic air, and it is reasonable to expect local severe storms. (See Severe Storm on Lake Michigan) And if the high pressure is persistent, stuck, then days of extreme weather are possible. If this pattern sets up, then there is increased likelihood of flooding. If I am that public health official, then I am alerted to the possibility of more extreme weather and the dangers thereof. But, again, can the increase of extreme weather be quantified? Do I need to quantify it before I decide on a plan of action?
Still with the figure - what about that region of extended drought and the heat from the high pressure system? Dehydration becomes a more important issue. As a public health official, I start to see the relation of the heat event to other aspects of the weather, the climate. I see the relation to drought. I see the flood, and it’s relation to the winter snow pack and spring rains.
So what I have presented here is to look at the local mechanisms of the weather – what are the basic underlying physics responsible for hot and cold, wet and dry – for moist air? If I stick to these basic physics, and let the climate model frame the more complex regional and global picture, what can I say about the future? Do I have to have a formal prediction to take action? Here in 2011, I see drought and flood and hot weather and warm oceans that interact together to make a period of sustained, dangerous heat. It does not have to “set a record” to convey the reality of the warming earth. It tells me the type of event that is likely to come more often, of longer duration, and of, perhaps, of greater intensity. If I am a public health planner, then I can know this with some certainty. The question becomes, how do I use that information in my planning?
r
Figure 3: Radar loop showing precipitation around the edge of the large high pressure system in the middle of the continent. July 19, 2011.
Previous Blogs on Heat Waves
Hot in Denver: Heat Waves (1)
Heat Waves (2): Heat and Humans
Heat Waves (3): Role of Global Warming
Reader Comments
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First, I'm glad you agree that Watts' breathless headline about a seminar was, typically, bogus.
Second, I seriously doubt that a few dozen government professionals spending their lunch half-hour listening to a sales pitch for golf lessons is why "we are broke".
Bottom line, it's a non-story manufactured out of thin air by Watts. As usual...
Link
Someone who works at the EPA sent him the heads-up. Of course it's a non-story. None of the major media would ever cover it.
You got it "all knowed up" don't you? As usual. Nothing that conflicts with your predetermined thinking would be allowed. Legend in your own mind. As for your ridiculous comments, you must think you are a comedienne. The spelling of the "comedienne" wasn't in error.
JBastardi,
What you think of my tunnel idea?
Seems feasible. I'd have to read more on it in detail.
The National Weather Service put 18 states stretching from Montana to Texas to West Virginia under a heat warning, watch or advisory, with the heat index topping 38C (100F) in most locations.
The heat is expected to move east in the next several days.More than 1,000 US heat records have been broken this month, officials said.
Though many US states have recently seen temperatures over 90F, some regions saw heat indexes - a combination of air temperature and relative humidity - up to 131F."
And there is always day dreaming to keep you cool.
No need to read ask me!
Fact is any heat created by man is now being trapped by GHG's for the next thousand or so years that includes nuclear energy. Man must intervene!
The operational Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) aims to upgrade the NESDIS current operational Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS) and build a one-stop shop for microwave products from various satellites with different instrumental configurations. With the capability of providing optimal and physically-based retrievals of atmospheric and surface state parameters, the operational MIRS will produce advanced near-real-time surface and precipitation products in all-weather and over all-surface conditions using brightness temperatures from the microwave instruments, which include AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS instruments on board of NOAA and EUMETSAT polar orbiting satellites, SSMIS on DMSP polar satellites and ATMS/CIM on NPP/NPOESS. The targeted operational products will include: vertical profiles of temperature and moisture, rainfall rate, total precipitable water, cloud liquid water, snow cover, snow water equivalent, sea ice concentration, ice water path, surface emissivity spectra and land surface temperature. These products will be made operationally available to users with different types (orbital, granule/Area of Interests, daily, monthly) and formats (HDF-EOS/HDF, NetCDF, BUFR, McIDAS and AWIPS) through a multi-year stratified phase approach.
With the current MiRS v5.0, the operational products from NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A include: temperature profile over ocean, moisture profiles over ocean and non-coastal land, total precipitable water over ocean and non-costal land, cloud liquid water over ocean, rain water path, ice water path, rainfall rate, snow cover, sea ice concentration, snow water equivalent, land surface temperature, surface emissivity over land and snow for all AMSU-A and MHS channels. The operational products from DMSP SSMIS include: total precipitable water over ocean, cloud liquid water over ocean, rain water path, ice water path, rainfall rate, snow cover, sea ice concentration, snow water equivalent, land surface temperature, surface emissivity over land and snow for all SSMIS channels. The SSMIS temperature and moisture profiles over ocean are also made available to users as demo products.
The MIRS retrospective data have being archived since August 30, 2007 starting from version 1.0, and can be acquired from the National Climatic Data Center and the Comprehensive
Large Array-data Stewardship System.
Surface Temperature
Please click the small images or the links to view big images
NOAA 18
NOAA 19
METOP A
DMSP F16
The annual Arctic slush cup has begun to sizzle in earnest, with the worst July coverage yet reported by satellite monitoring.
Damaged by the early start to the melt season and then basked in much warmer air than normal, Arctic sea ice has shrunk so fast during the past few weeks that it%u2019s now dipped into record minimum territory for the time of year, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
%u201CArctic sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace through the first half of July, and is now tracking below the year 2007, which saw the record minimum September extent,%u201D the NSIDC reported in its latest sea ice update.
As of July 17, the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice had shrunk to 2.92 million square miles -- the smallest extent ever seen for mid-July since satellite monitoring began in the 1970s. It%u2019s 865,000 square miles below the average cover for that date seen between 1979 and 2000. A frozen polar bear-and-seal habitat larger than Alaska and California combined has been transformed into mostly open water.
Although maps generated by satellite analysis show the pack has retreated far north from the shores of Alaska%u2019s Beaufort and Chukchi seas, the extent of sea ice was particularly low in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev seas of the far northern Atlantic Ocean, and along Canada in Hudson and Baffin bays, the NSIDC reported.
%u201CDuring the first half of July, a high-pressure cell persisted over the northern Beaufort Sea, as it did in June, and is linked to the above-average air temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean,%u201D the NSIDC report explained. %u201CTo date in July, air temperatures over the North Pole were (11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal.%u201D
For more details and analysis, plus NSIDC%u2019s usual collection of easy-to-read charts and maps, go to the sea ice portal.
Link
That's true, I suppose. Not even Fox was there. Then again, that whole teetering operation is in danger of collapsing under the weight of its own deeply entrenched corruption; by the time it's all said and done, Fox "News" may no longer be part of the "major media". Which would be a good thing; American minds, newly freed from the shackles of Murdoch-ian ignorance and manipulation, would actually be allowed to start hearing science again instead of so much pro-pollution propaganda. And who could complain about that?
Link
Yeah, it's pretty amazing. We're still eight weeks away from reaching bottom, and between 100,000 and 150,000 square kilometers of ice are melting every day. (And, yes, of course that pace will slow down as the North Pole begins tilting away from the sun, just as it always does.) With CO2 still increasing at an amazing rate--40 trillion liters a day just from humans--and other feedback effects, it's painfully clear that the Arctic will indeed be ice free in summer sooner rather than later. The pace of change is truly remarkable...
Do you really believe that the mainstream media are objective in their reporting? If so, you truly live in a fantasy world. Fox News has it's share of liberals as well. That, in itself, is fair and balanced. Fox is the only network that actually allows some conservatives in its ranks. Only liberals could find something wrong with that. I'm sure you're a Keith Olbermann fan. When it's evident that the news is being reported with a bias, then it's no longer news. It's opinion. That is how the MSM has been operating for decades. People are beginning to realize it, hence the high ratings of Fox News. I, for one, can't watch the mainstream news anymore, because they don't report stories. Without fail, they have to interpret and edit the reports to fit their ideology. I knew someone personally who gave an interview to 60 Minutes. He said they edited and twisted his words so much that it completely misrepresented what he said. I suppose that's your idea of good journalism. The problem with you is that you can't handle any objection to your climate religion. Liberalism is a mental disorder. You and your kind want to control all semblance of objectivity. Mind control and brainwashing is what it's all about. This climate science fraud can't withstand scrutiny. That's why you don't want any objective focus on it.
Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
But there is hope you know.
No way the refuseniks would ever believe NOAA links.
They are taking this to a different level also. They will build body organs and parts the same way. They have already built a pig heart valve this way.
Link
img src="
No, not quite, yet/. They have to make a river run uphill first :)
It isn't the energy of the sun, but the solar flares which affect our climate. Yet another warmist, half-truth. Wonder where the data for the surface temps originated. Probably from those nicely-placed temperature stations in the US. Patrap is the master of posting the incredible graphs. I think he makes them up half the time. Where did that one come from? Daily Kos?
Solar Update:
Solar activity continues at fairly low levels with only B-Class activity taking place on Tuesday. Sunspots 1254 in the south and 1259 towards the northeast limb both appear to be growing somewhat. Sunspot 1257 is rotating towards the western limb and will soon be out of direct earth view. There is currently a chance for C-Class flares.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were seven numbered
active regions on the disk today, but all remain quiet and stable.
The two most significant, Region 1257 (N20W83) and Region 1254
(S22W04) were classified as Dso Beta groups, producing only a few
weak B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for a C-class flare over the next 3 days
(20-22 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an isolated period of active conditions at mid
latitudes and a minor storm at high latitudes between 19/15Z-19/18Z.
This activity was associated with the onset of coronal hole high
speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly unsettled to active levels with and
isolated minor storm possible on days 1 and 2 (20-21 July) as the
result of coronal hole high speed stream effects. Conditions should
decrease to primarily unsettled levels with the chance for isolated
active periods on day 3 (22 July), as coronal hole effects begin to
decline.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
Well NOAA is yer tax dollars sport,cuz if you cant open a linkie dinkie above the Graph,well you best stick to WeatherBelling.
Every thing I post is sourced and for Public consumption..Mr.Atmospheric Avenger.
Frogs think the same thing.
From the recent paper,with respect to solar activity,,,,,, it matters when the incoming energy,,,,,, which is directly impacted by clouds,,,,,,, makes clouds.
Clouds, could be the key in the end~~~~
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/2697/20 11/acpd-11-2697-2011.pdf
img src="
I don't bother to even look at the sources for your ridiculous graphs. And Congress is voting to cut NOAA's funding as we speak, because of their absurd reports, sport. NOAA is flooded with brainwashed warmists, obviously. You post the same graphs repeatedly corresponding with your inane and seemingly ignorant commentary. Your grammar in your posts reminds me of the movie, "The Big Easy." Makes all New Orleanians seem as ignorant as coon asses.
While ocean heat content varies significantly from place to place and from year-to-year (as a result of changing ocean currents and natural variability), there is a strong trend during the period of reliable measurements. Increasing heat content in the ocean is also consistent with sea level rise, which is occurring mostly as a result of thermal expansion of the ocean water as it warms.
Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955. More information: BAMS State of the Climate in 2009.
Les the Bon Tomp's Roule,Cher
Enjoyed it,immensely.
Global Climate Dashboard
News
Strong El Niño could bring increased sea levels, storm surges to U.S. East Coast
Fri, 15 Jul 2011
Coastal communities along the U.S. East Coast may be at risk to higher sea levels accompanied by more destructive storm surges in future El Niño years, according to a new study by NOAA.
NOAA just keeps manufacturing fantastic future climate calamities while the facts are nothing is happening. Where are all the cyclones predicted by the "experts"? We haven't had a hurricane landfall in the longest span since the Civil War, cher. By the way it's "laissez." Your cajun is as bad as your English.
It was pure luck that there were no US landfalls last year since it was one of the top three most active seasons. Twice the number of hurricanes than in an average year. They were all the cyclones the experts correctly predicted.
"According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, 19 named storms — tropical storms (which have sustained winds of at least 39 mph) and hurricanes (74 mph) — formed this year, including the 12 hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes were major, a Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
An average season sees 10 named storms, of which six are hurricanes and two are major hurricanes.
Since 1944, only two other years had as many named storms: 1995 had 19 storms, and 2005 had 28."
Link
It would tell us that heat rises, as most any high school student can tell you. But the bottom layers of the ocean aren't cooling, of course--as most any oceanographer can tell you. Have a look for yourself.
"Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming...The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 plus/minus 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008."
And so another denialist myth falls by the wayside. What else you got?
(As an aside, while looking for the above paper, I ran across the following piece. It struck me that it contains about as much science--but only half as much wishful thinking--as the average WUWT entry. Cooling of the Ocean After the Flood.)
I think the American people--well, the majority, anyway--want truth. And while all of the major media have slid further and further away from their primary mission, it's becoming ever more clear that Murdoch-led outlets have slid the furthest. The Wall Street Journal has increased biased political coverage by 60% since the takeover (a move which prompted the previous owners of the paper to publicly state their misgivings about selling to Murdoch on the first place); Fox News viewers are the most mis-informed, as at least one university study has shown; and, of course, there's the mess going on in England as we speak that will very likely lead to many more casualties as continued evidence of wrongdoing at all levels is exposed. All that to say: an American public hungry for that truth knows they can't trust what they see and hear from Murdoch.
Glacier Volume is Shrinking
Warming temperatures lead to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. The total volume of glaciers on Earth is declining sharply. Glaciers have been retreating worldwide for at least the last century; the rate of retreat has increased in the past decade. Only a few glaciers are actually advancing (in locations that were well below freezing, and where increased precipitation has outpaced melting). The progressive disappearance of glaciers has implications not only for a rising global sea level, but also for water supplies in certain regions of Asia and South America.
Cumulative decline (in cubic miles) in glacier ice worldwide. More information: Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
Video:www.weatherbell.com
Joe Bastardi hired by start-up firm WeatherBell
By Jason Samenow
Bastardi joins renowned forecaster Joseph D'Aleo
Less than three weeks after resigning as AccuWeather's chief long-range forecaster, Joe Bastardi announced Friday that he has accepted the position of chief forecaster at WeatherBell, a fledgling weather consulting firm.
WeatherBell has also hired veteran meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo, who served as the Weather Channel's first director of meteorology.
Based in New York City, WeatherBell Analytics LLC will offer meteorological products and services geared toward helping businesses manage weather risk. The company is funded entirely by angel investors.
continued....
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