Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 1:23 AM GMT on November 22, 2011

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Extreme Weather: Can we use predictions to plan?

Been on an unexpected hiatus and coming back slowly. Thanks to Angela and Jeff for a bit of cover. First I want to regain my blogging legs a little and return to my previous entry on Politics, Events, and the Weather. In that entry I mentioned that Representative Ralph Hall announced that the Science, Space, and Technology Committee will start an investigation into NOAA and whether or not NOAA is forming an “unauthorized” climate service. Many federal agencies have been operating without a current year budget for a long time. I say that so that I can include the whole name of the Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act that extends the Fiscal Year 2012 Continuing Resolution. If you want a good summary of budget information that includes climate and weather research then you might try this site. In the final negotiations for this Act, Congress prohibited NOAA from organizing existing resources to form a climate service.

Organizations such as the Reinsurance Association of American recognize the need to address climate change, and in fact they are taking action. Better collection, provision, and interpretation of climate information seem warranted, and that is the main purpose of the climate service reorganization.

At least implicitly, another call for better information comes from Congress - Representative Lynn Jenkins calls hearing on Missouri River Flooding. In 2011 there was an enormous flood of the Missouri River and many of its tributaries. This was one of several Billion Dollar Events during the summer of 2011 (see, Chris Burt, Weather.com, Earth and Sky).

In ClimateWatch Magazine there is a long article on the Missouri River Flood. As with many extreme events, several factors came together to cause this flood. There was large snowpack in both the Rocky Mountains and on the Plains in the Upper Missouri Basin. This was followed by heavy spring rains, that melted the snow yielding flows in May and June that equaled what is normally seen in the entire year. In this article there is also the description of the role of La Nina in the flood. La Nina is often described as the “negative” of El Nino. In the sense that El Nino is a warmer than average eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, La Nina is a cooler than average eastern Equatorial Pacific. It is well known that there are changes of weather patterns over the U.S. associated with El Nino and La Nina, but it is not so well known exactly what the impact of those changes might be.

This year we once again have a La Nina forming, and we have the prediction that it is highly likely that the event will persist and, perhaps, intensify. A question that arises is how can we better anticipate and plan for the consequences of the La Nina? Will we face another year of floods in the upper Missouri Valley? Will the drought continue in Texas? (Where I am collecting some El Nino – La Nina references.)





Figure 1. Characteristic position of wintertime jet streams during La Nina. From ClimateWatch Magazine: “The jet streams are high-altitude, racing rivers of air that can influence the path of storms as they track over North America from the Pacific Ocean. The jet streams meander and shift from day to day, but during La Niña events, they tend to follow paths that bring cold air and storms into the Upper Missouri River Basin. Map based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Adapted by Richard Rivera & Hunter Allen.”


As a climate change blogger, I have some responsibility for bringing this blog a bit to climate change. Currently, I think a lot about how to use information from climate models. I argue that thinking about how we can use a 2011 La Nina prediction to assess the risk of 2012 Missouri River flood is a pretty good exercise. Compared to a 100 year projection, this is strong prediction. We need to understand how global models inform regional scales. We have a problem with complex interactions between different features of the Earth’s weather and climate. We learn how to work with people who have to assess risk and make decisions.

OK: Here is the link to the Montana Conservation District's website. And here is a quote from Montana farmer Buzz Mattelin’s testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. Mattelin’s testimony is a remarkable summary and evaluation of the 2011 flood. Here’s one of Mattelin’s suggestions on how to improve the situation. He refers to the Corps, which is the Army Corps of Engineers who have the mission of managing the Missouri River.

“The Corps’ Annual Operating Plan (AOP) begins each new runoff year at a normal or average starting point when we rarely if ever have an average year. The Corps does a good job of incorporating mountain snowpack, plains snowpack, and short term precipitation into the AOP but falls short in using variables like soil moisture and climatic trends. Soil moisture data is readily available in weekly crop reports that rank soil moisture as short, adequate, or surplus. We should also look at El Nino and La Nina events. When you overlay past La Nina events with high runoff years in the Basin, there are definite correlations during the high runoff years in the 70’, 90’s and this year. Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO is another ocean temperature phenomenon that show promise as a predictor of precipitation on the Northern Plains. Incorporation of these types of variables into the AOP could significantly improve flood control.”

I will confess sitting in my office today talking about this problem, and we came pretty much to the same conclusion as Mattelin. Mattelin, many academic papers, and common sense say that if there are better forecasts, or perhaps more appropriately, longer lead times, then risk, damage, and cost can be reduced. We, the collective we, have much of the information that is required, but it is not all in one place. It is not all provided by a single agency. It is not integrated together towards a specific application like flooding in of the Missouri River. That service is not provided.

I am, let’s say, a minor participant in a project where over the next few months we will try to pull together this information and see if we can use this data better (initial link. If we can do it for a seasonal climate prediction, then we will learn to do it better for decadal climate projections. Stay tuned.

r


Here is a link to a new series on Green.TV on extreme weather. Let me know what you think.

And since people mentioned it ... Shearer and Rood on the media and extreme weather.

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Quoting Seastep:


Did they cause that?

As for the time on earth, and for life in general, it is when the glaciers start advancing again that should cause worry. Not that we can stop it.

And we will still be here when it starts. No question in my mind. So, we disagree there, too, I suppose.

The only way we're going to see the glaciers advance again is if AGW interferes with oceanic currents in a large way. That's possible, but not very likely to occur any time soon based on the science.

You appear to be pulling for a Deus ex icicle. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Aquaimage13:


I totally agree, but DO NOT see how passing these draconian global warming laws will help anything. And I do NOT believe we are the cause of it. Can we fix it?(Pollution that is) Yes I do think we can and should. But it has not a darn thing to do with Carbon offsets and taxes.

The Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol have wholly failed to accomplish their "scientifically supported" political objectives.

EU and UK carbon-trading schemes have been disasters, creating wealth for the smart traders, and doing nothing to contain CO2.
Every business wants to increase its efficiency so that it uses LESS power, rather than more. American CO2 emissions have DECREASED over the last decade as industry increased efficiency.
All of the IPCC "projections" have been proven false.
The fact that this relatively minor warming is occurring while emissions are rising faster than expected adds more weight to the skeptical argument.

“Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden,” Jones writes in another newly released email. “I’ve discussed this with the main funder (U.S. Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.”

I will not bow down to tyranny no matter what mask it wears!

The Montreal and Kyoto agreements failed because there's simply too much political input from those who want to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm as long as possible.

At any rate, I see that you, too, are not willing to deal truthfully. "All of the IPCC 'projections' have been proven false." Wrong. "...This relatively minor warming"? Wrong. Tell you what: turn off Fox, stop listening to Limbaugh, read some actual science, then get back to me.

Anyway, for those enamored of posting the stolen emails completely free of context, here are a few that you may find interesting.

"Years ago I did send much paleo data to McIntyre but have also had nothing but criticism on his blog ever since. As I said, this criticism on blog sites is not the way to do science. If they want to engage, they have to converse in civil tones, and if people don’t want to work with them, they have to respect that and live with it." - Phil Jones

“The UK FOIA seems like a real pain. What McIntyre and his ilk are trying to do is to make doing science as unpleasant as possible for us. I suppose they think that discouraging the scientists is the best way to prevent the science from moving forward. Its really disgusting, and hopefully folks from higher up realise what is going on.” - Phil Jones

“A lot of people seem to think that because you’ve been accused of something, there must be something to warrant the accusation. Very few, including many climate scientists seem to understand the amount of mischief making out there — as we all know all too clearly.” - Phil Jones

”Finally, I would point out that the evidence for human-caused global warming is based on many independent lines of evidence, including the fundamental physics of radiative transfer, various different types of climate observations and sophisticated comparisons of model-predicted changes with what has been observed.” - Michael Mann

Some day the media will do their job, and crackpots like McIntyre, Watts, and Spencer will be made to answer for their transgressions.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
ALL THESE WORLDS ARE YOURS EXCEPT EUROPA

ATTEMPT NO LANDING THERE

USE THEM TOGETHER USE THEM IN PEACE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Removed... something isn't working right.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Neapolitan:

You are certainly free to disagree, but given that we humans have a demonstrated affinity for doing massive and irreparable harm to the environment, I'd disagree with you. At any rate, the "nature is resilient" line assumes that all humans are dead, thus omitting our damaging and polluting ways. Extinction is an adaptive mechanism (where are those darn dinosaurs anyway?), but not a very palatable one when talking about my own species.

I myself find it fascinating--or, more correctly, disturbing--that, generally speaking, those that find nature so resilient tend to have complete faith in corporatism. Why do you suppose that is?

I'm not worried whether time is on my side; I'm deeply concerned that it is not on Planet Earth's.


Did they cause that?

As for the time on earth, and for life in general, it is when the glaciers start advancing again that should cause worry. Not that we can stop it.

And we will still be here when it starts. No question in my mind. So, we disagree there, too, I suppose.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting greentortuloni:
Quote: "WE DO NOT KNOW!!!!!!!!!!! AND TO PASS ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGING WORLDWIDE LAWS WITHOUT HAVING A GLOBAL GOVERMENT IS BULLSHIT AND IDIOTIC."

Inaction is also action. Not saving the planet while there is still a chance is also BS and idiotic.



I totally agree, but DO NOT see how passing these draconian global warming laws will help anything. And I do NOT believe we are the cause of it. Can we fix it?(Pollution that is) Yes I do think we can and should. But it has not a darn thing to do with Carbon offsets and taxes.

The Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol have wholly failed to accomplish their "scientifically supported" political objectives.

EU and UK carbon-trading schemes have been disasters, creating wealth for the smart traders, and doing nothing to contain CO2.
Every business wants to increase its efficiency so that it uses LESS power, rather than more. American CO2 emissions have DECREASED over the last decade as industry increased efficiency.
All of the IPCC "projections" have been proven false.
The fact that this relatively minor warming is occurring while emissions are rising faster than expected adds more weight to the skeptical argument.

“Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get – and has to be well hidden,” Jones writes in another newly released email. “I’ve discussed this with the main funder (U.S. Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.”

I will not bow down to tyranny no matter what mask it wears!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

You are certainly free to disagree, but given that we humans have a demonstrated affinity for doing massive and irreparable harm to the environment, I'd disagree with you. At any rate, the "nature is resilient" line assumes that all humans are dead, thus omitting our damaging and polluting ways. Extinction is an adaptive mechanism (where are those darn dinosaurs anyway?), but not a very palatable one when talking about my own species.

I myself find it fascinating--or, more correctly, disturbing--that, generally speaking, those that find nature so resilient tend to have complete faith in corporatism. Why do you suppose that is?

I'm not worried whether time is on my side; I'm deeply concerned that it is not on Planet Earth's.


That is without question in closed ecosystems.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Seastep:


I disagree. Nature is more resilient than some think. And the data backs it up. As time goes on it will become apparent. Time is not on your side. Hence, the rush, imo. No other explanation.

And, I do find it fascinating that, generally speaking, those that find it so fragile tend to have complete faith in Darwinism.

Adaptation is proven, yes. No question in my mind.

You are certainly free to disagree, but given that we humans have a demonstrated affinity for doing massive and irreparable harm to the environment, I'd disagree with you. At any rate, the "nature is resilient" line assumes that all humans are dead, thus omitting our damaging and polluting ways. Extinction is an adaptive mechanism (where are those darn dinosaurs anyway?), but not a very palatable one when talking about my own species.

I myself find it fascinating--or, more correctly, disturbing--that, generally speaking, those that find nature so resilient tend to have complete faith in corporatism. Why do you suppose that is?

I'm not worried whether time is on my side; I'm deeply concerned that it is not on Planet Earth's.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting greentortuloni:
Quote: "WE DO NOT KNOW!!!!!!!!!!! AND TO PASS ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGING WORLDWIDE LAWS WITHOUT HAVING A GLOBAL GOVERMENT IS BULL**** AND IDIOTIC."

Inaction is also action. Not saving the planet while there is still a chance is also BS and idiotic.



You can't save the planet.

We should all be good stewards of nature. Didn't know there was a debate about that, because I don't know of anyone that thinks differently. Do you?

Modified: Just realized that wasn't your language. Sorry about that.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quote: "WE DO NOT KNOW!!!!!!!!!!! AND TO PASS ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGING WORLDWIDE LAWS WITHOUT HAVING A GLOBAL GOVERMENT IS BULLSHIT AND IDIOTIC."

Inaction is also action. Not saving the planet while there is still a chance is also BS and idiotic.

Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, not dead. Just dying. And they are, sadly, well on the way.


I disagree. Nature is more resilient than some think. And the data backs it up. As time goes on it will become apparent. Time is not on your side. Hence, the rush, imo. No other explanation.

And, I do find it fascinating that, generally speaking, those that find it so fragile tend to have complete faith in Darwinism.

Adaptation is proven, yes. No question in my mind.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting spbloom:


Er, there seems to be some sort of residue still covering your eyes. :)


Oh really?
Please do explain. Please explain to me why the largest funders of AGW are mega-corporation owned or government funded. Or how the end-game is a World Bank you pay your carbon taxes to. Or how humans are evil and the world needs to be de-populated.(Bill Gates TED conference to lower pop through vaccines)

Because what I got is this;

The science has been tampered with and just like any sport once the game has been tampered with there comes the penalty flag!

Well damnit, we are thowing flag after flag after flag but yet the IMF World Bank Carbon Tax is being slammed down our throats. Australia voted against it and now it just passed. All I am saying is that commen sense is screaming at us right now.

"Stop letting the wolf guard the damn hen house"

"Do not let the ones polluting the shit out of this world(be it nuclear, oil or co2 etc) be the ones that pass the laws to regulate themselves"

STOP FEEDING THE DAMN BEAST AND START OVER!

Obviously we are all split on this subject and all focusing on crooked ass studies will not help!

c02 levels have been higher before and they have been lower before.

Maybe it is c02, maybe it is cow dung, maybe it is the Cuban in the back of the bar eating seafood through a straw while kissing a white chick who has a horse tattoo.

WE DO NOT KNOW!!!!!!!!!!! AND TO PASS ABSOLUTE GAME CHANGING WORLDWIDE LAWS WITHOUT HAVING A GLOBAL GOVERMENT IS BULLSHIT AND IDIOTIC.

Now we have a Race war between the believers and the skeptics. Divide and conquer!

Emails

Forbes


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Quoting Seastep:


Weren't the oceans supposed to be dead by now?

No, not dead. Just dying. And they are, sadly, well on the way.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Carbonic Acid levels in the Oceans also tell the TRUTH!


Weren't the oceans supposed to be dead by now?
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Impatience rarely ends in a positive result. Quite the opposite.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
84. Some1Has2BtheRookie

"We simply cannot logically dismiss what has been observed and the knowledge we have gained, to date, while we observe further."

- I agree.


"You do realize that you are wanting to perform your experiments in the wild and not under controlled lab conditions, do you not?"

- Yes, I do. It is the only way, unfortunately. And, actually, the best effort to date of attempting it under lab conditions doesn't show what you think will happen. But, as I said, I don't put a lot of credence in it as a true simulation. It is near impossible, if not impossible, to recreate the atmosphere in a lab setting.


"This "experiment" will go wrong and there will not be any way available for us to shut down this "experiment"."

- I disagree with your premise. No, I don't want to shut down the atmosphere. ;) Nor can we stop this experiment called climate. It will continue to change until the planet is gone. With or without man.

"As an analogy, let us say that your observations have shown a lake has become more acidic and that some of the aquatic life has shown signs of adverse effects. We can say that perhaps it is not the rising level of acidity in the lake that is causing this. Perhaps the lake's aquatic life is suffering the adverse effects because of something else. You want to test this theory and you conduct your tests while the lake's acidity level continues to climb. All the while you are aware that a rising acidity will eventually kill all of the aquatic life, in this lake. The only way to perform a proper test is to stop, or reverse, the rising acidic levels of the lake while you investigate other causes of the suffering of the aquatic life. This is how you want to perform your experiment. You desire to perform your tests on a global scale. ... What will you learn when you determine that the experiment cannot be stopped?"

- This analogy can be recreated in a lab.


"At what level of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is our planet able to sustain without life on this planet suffering adverse effects?"

- Very high. Just check the data during other periods when the planet was teeming with life.


"Do you not understand the logic in this?"

- I understand your logic perfectly.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Nah! If they did they would still be here!


They are still here, I believe.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
Quoting spbloom:


But did the Mayans know about the tunnels? ;)


Nah! If they did they would still be here!
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Quoting Patrap:
..wake me up, when November end's




Lots of ACE out there still!
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Quoting Seastep:


Watch global temperatures tell the truth.

The truth will be revealed in time.

Not too much longer. A decade or three, at most. Will probably take three before some will accept it.


Carbonic Acid levels in the Oceans also tell the TRUTH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Aquaimage13:
(...) With my head out of my arse (...)


Media-FAIL

Link


Er, there seems to be some sort of residue still covering your eyes. :)
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 428
Quoting Patrap:
The Terra-forming of Sol's 3rd planet out is going according to Plan nicely.


There are now 391 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday.






But did the Mayans know about the tunnels? ;)
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 428
Quoting Aquaimage13:
If your not a skeptic and your not outraged, YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION! With my head out of my arse, I can tell something fishy is going on. ( No one can deny this) So with that knowledge you then must do what? Well you follow the money stupid! Who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain? The answer is simple and just like everything else in this CRONY-Capitalistic world it is the damn banks. You can keep clinging to Global Warming all you want but at this point you just look IGNORANT! Also, anyone claiming to be a scientist and or running a weather website that is pushing this BULLSHIT should seriously be held accountable. I think in the end when we do have this "great-awakening" people will turn to the ones pushing for the global government and the carbon taxes and hold them accountable. All of you compartmentalized pawns will answer to the ones who did question the liars and bigots and it will not be pretty. Especially when we know you are pawns for the evil ones who are polluting and mass-murdering worldwide but you are too damn stubborn and "proud" to admit that you have been conned.
Do we need to pollute less and find better alternative energies? Of course. Do we need "scientist" to watch out for us and report whatever they think is happening? Of course. Should they be paid by the governments and the elitist who all have the same globalist agenda? Well, if they are, those WILL NOT be the ones I trust. After decades of being lied to about almost everything you can think of, why in the hell do you still trust these people when their agenda is posted on every damn wall. Then you find out that the "scientist" that found these numbers work for them and yet you still are not skeptic?
This is why our country is where we are today. Because people are too proud to admit to being wrong. It is ok, just come out and say it with me. SOMETHING VERY WRONG IS HAPPENING AND IT PISSES ME OFF THAT I AM BEING LIED TO! No matter what your stance is on this subject. YOU ARE BEING LIED TO. If anything else it is obvious that we must scratch it all and start over with the research! For me, it is enough that I know the Problem, Reaction, Solution game and the agenda and I will no longer be conned!
What more do you need to be skeptical of these arrogant a-holes? Millions are starving, there is poison in our food and water, lakes and oceans. Pollution is very real, but so is greed and so is ignorance. So you better be skeptical of any damn thing that fits this agenda and anything that comes from these corrupt Corporate dirt-bags and pawns.
INCLUDING DR. MASTERS! I have followed his tropical outlooks for years and really respected him, but for him to push this agenda is it! You claim to be a Dr., yet you push this garbage. I am sure this will make some happy but I will no longer subscribe and follow anyone who bows down and spews this warming garbage any longer. If you want to see the curruption stop then stop using this website. We will leave all these "scientist" alone on this page and let them debate each other on the 0.00001 degrees and 0.0000001 ft sea-level rise in the next 2.3 to 189 years. Let them pay the carbon taxes if they like, that will be plenty to save GE and Shell Co.. But if I don't want to hold my farts and believe the ones who are doing the mass polluting are the ones behind the whole climate change system for a Carbon Tax to fund a World Gov. I shouldn't have to pay a dime or do anything to fund this LIE!

Pollution--> BAD! Scientific LIES---BAD!
Weather Modification----> BAD! Link
Planned/Perceived Obsolescence-->BAD! Link
(Same who push the Planned Ob fund Carbon Taxes)
Skepticism----> Good

CLIMATE DICTATORSHIP OVER RECOURCES!

Then some are blaming the hackers? HAHAHAHAHAHA. When someone is spreading lies via newspapers, tv, word of mouth, it is the duty as a citizen to prove the lies that are killing, starving and stealing. Those should be the heroes. But only war mongers like Obama/Bush (same puppet) get the Nobel Peace Prize! Anyone condemning the hackers are idiots! They aren't hacking people's bank accounts or stealing ID's, they are proving the lies and corruption!

Ignorance is NOT strength, War is NOT Peace, Freedom is NOT Slavery and to hell with those who say it is, or deny the chance to question EVERYTHING! There is just way too much info out there to believe this crap. I just hope some are able to read this while they are out buying worthless crap with credit cards that only last 6 months before it hits the landfill. Oh but maybe tomorrow? Wait no... that is small business Saturday. Brought to you by whom? Oh yeah, American Express...HAHA. Don't use cash, use credit or layaway.

Peace, Love and the search for TRUTH!


Media-FAIL

Link

The mark of the mature man is his ability to work brave, teaching all, every slave, how to replace coal-oil-gas-mineral-nuclear, unemployed-inflation, welfare-waste-war with Essene Birth-Control for very girl, Swiss 6000 year Universal Military Training UMT for full- employment, raising 1 trillion Israel-system trees, 2 million Dutch dikes, 3 Greek mirror- solars, 4 Hannibal windpower plants, 5 billion Amish-Amway-AT&T profitsharing jobs, 6 Milorganite plants, 76 million Planetemples teaching All-One-God-Faith, Austrian music, Babylon roof-gardens, California rain forests, China-bikes, Cartha-UMT, Catspaw sandals, compost tree, C02 bomber, the Moral ABC, cattle-lemon-Esperanto. Finn-jails, gasohol, German solar-Zeppelins, Health-meat-salt-soap-tape, jojoba-aloevera-chia-ginseng-garlic, Kibbutz, Nature Friends, patents, Swiss economy, Town-Without-Toothache, Patrick Henry teaches PHt's of USA-USSR H20 cwp, with 76 million battery-banks, powering every car-factory-farm-home-Milorganite-monorail! To teach healthy Hunza 150-year great life by God's Law, timing-teamwork-wisdom-power-mercy-love, uniting All-One above! Above! Know 41-4. Only hard work unites all! Scrolls: $10 for 10; $3 for 1, help unite all!

Oh, wait, sorry about that; when I get knocked for a loop, I can't seem to help but recite passages of text from Dr. Bronner's soap package.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree, seastep, that more tests need to be made and confirmed. This is what is being done. We simply cannot logically dismiss what has been observed and the knowledge we have gained, to date, while we observe further.

You do realize that you are wanting to perform your experiments in the wild and not under controlled lab conditions, do you not? This "experiment" will go wrong and there will not be any way available for us to shut down this "experiment".

As an analogy, let us say that your observations have shown a lake has become more acidic and that some of the aquatic life has shown signs of adverse effects. We can say that perhaps it is not the rising level of acidity in the lake that is causing this. Perhaps the lake's aquatic life is suffering the adverse effects because of something else. You want to test this theory and you conduct your tests while the lake's acidity level continues to climb. All the while you are aware that a rising acidity will eventually kill all of the aquatic life, in this lake. The only way to perform a proper test is to stop, or reverse, the rising acidic levels of the lake while you investigate other causes of the suffering of the aquatic life. This is how you want to perform your experiment. You desire to perform your tests on a global scale. ... What will you learn when you determine that the experiment cannot be stopped?

When you want to see if the baby's bathwater is too hot, you do not want to keep putting the baby in the bathwater after you have raised the temperature of the bathwater each time. Logic must prevail or there is no reason for logic.

At what level of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is our planet able to sustain without life on this planet suffering adverse effects? As yet, this is not clearly known. You, however, wish to find out the hard way. That, my friend, is not the logical approach to use. We DO know that there is a breaking point. Test this in a lab and not in the wild. ... Do you not understand the logic in this?

I challenge ANYONE to show that I am using failed logic in this. ANYONE! Should you not be able to do so then I STRONGLY suggest that you use your head for something other than a hat rack! We KNOW, for a FACT, that increasing our atmospheric levels of CO2 will have an detrimental effect on EVERYONE! When you perform a lab experiment and it goes horribly wrong, you have a bad day. When you perform your experiments in the wild and it goes horribly wrong, EVERYONE HAS A BAD DAY! QUIT WISHING TO PERFORM YOUR EXPERIMENTS IN THE WILD!


Bear in mind that many of your correspondents here expect to be dead in a few decades and are so self-centered that they really don't care what happens to future generations. The point is to grasp at any straw, no matter how absurd, to avoid the needed action. Many others, the real Joe Bastardi being an example, simply lack the imagination to conceive of a world much different than the one they grew up in. Others are just deranged in one way or another and like to spend time on the internet. Did I miss anyone?
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 428
The Terra-forming of Sol's 3rd planet out is going according to Plan nicely.


There are now 391 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Friday.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Seastep:


Watch global temperatures tell the truth.

The truth will be revealed in time.

Not too much longer. A decade or three, at most. Will probably take three before some will accept it.


I agree, seastep, that more tests need to be made and confirmed. This is what is being done. We simply cannot logically dismiss what has been observed and the knowledge we have gained, to date, while we observe further.

You do realize that you are wanting to perform your experiments in the wild and not under controlled lab conditions, do you not? This "experiment" will go wrong and there will not be any way available for us to shut down this "experiment".

As an analogy, let us say that your observations have shown a lake has become more acidic and that some of the aquatic life has shown signs of adverse effects. We can say that perhaps it is not the rising level of acidity in the lake that is causing this. Perhaps the lake's aquatic life is suffering the adverse effects because of something else. You want to test this theory and you conduct your tests while the lake's acidity level continues to climb. All the while you are aware that a rising acidity will eventually kill all of the aquatic life, in this lake. The only way to perform a proper test is to stop, or reverse, the rising acidic levels of the lake while you investigate other causes of the suffering of the aquatic life. This is how you want to perform your experiment. You desire to perform your tests on a global scale. ... What will you learn when you determine that the experiment cannot be stopped?

When you want to see if the baby's bathwater is too hot, you do not want to keep putting the baby in the bathwater after you have raised the temperature of the bathwater each time. Logic must prevail or there is no reason for logic.

At what level of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is our planet able to sustain without life on this planet suffering adverse effects? As yet, this is not clearly known. You, however, wish to find out the hard way. That, my friend, is not the logical approach to use. We DO know that there is a breaking point. Test this in a lab and not in the wild. ... Do you not understand the logic in this?

I challenge ANYONE to show that I am using failed logic in this. ANYONE! Should you not be able to do so then I STRONGLY suggest that you use your head for something other than a hat rack! We KNOW, for a FACT, that increasing our atmospheric levels of CO2 will have an detrimental effect on EVERYONE! When you perform a lab experiment and it goes horribly wrong, you have a bad day. When you perform your experiments in the wild and it goes horribly wrong, EVERYONE HAS A BAD DAY! QUIT WISHING TO PERFORM YOUR EXPERIMENTS IN THE WILD!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
..wake me up, when November end's


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Seastep:


Watch global temperatures tell the truth.

The truth will be revealed in time.

Not too much longer. A decade or three, at most. Will probably take three before some will accept it.

Sure. It'll start cooling off any day month year decade century now. I don't know how, but it's gonna happen. I have my fingers crossed and everything...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting Seastep:


Watch global temperatures tell the truth.

The truth will be revealed in time.

Not too much longer. A decade or three, at most. Will probably take three before some will accept it.
Not for me,I have not seen a single shred of evidence of AGW!
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
AR5 should be an entertaining read.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting cyclonebuster:


Watch the Arctic Ice it tells you the TRUTH.



Watch global temperatures tell the truth.

The truth will be revealed in time.

Not too much longer. A decade or three, at most. Will probably take three before some will accept it.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Seems someone may have been booted from da "Bunker" ?

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Aquaimage13:
If your not a skeptic and your not outraged, YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION! With my head out of my arse, I can tell something fishy is going on. ( No one can deny this) So with that knowledge you then must do what? Well you follow the money stupid! Who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain? The answer is simple and just like everything else in this CRONY-Capitalistic world it is the damn banks. You can keep clinging to Global Warming all you want but at this point you just look IGNORANT! Also, anyone claiming to be a scientist and or running a weather website that is pushing this BULLSHIT should seriously be held accountable. I think in the end when we do have this "great-awakening" people will turn to the ones pushing for the global government and the carbon taxes and hold them accountable. All of you compartmentalized pawns will answer to the ones who did question the liars and bigots and it will not be pretty. Especially when we know you are pawns for the evil ones who are polluting and mass-murdering worldwide but you are too damn stubborn and "proud" to admit that you have been conned.
Do we need to pollute less and find better alternative energies? Of course. Do we need "scientist" to watch out for us and report whatever they think is happening? Of course. Should they be paid by the governments and the elitist who all have the same globalist agenda? Well, if they are, those WILL NOT be the ones I trust. After decades of being lied to about almost everything you can think of, why in the hell do you still trust these people when their agenda is posted on every damn wall. Then you find out that the "scientist" that found these numbers work for them and yet you still are not skeptic?
This is why our country is where we are today. Because people are too proud to admit to being wrong. It is ok, just come out and say it with me. SOMETHING VERY WRONG IS HAPPENING AND IT PISSES ME OFF THAT I AM BEING LIED TO! No matter what your stance is on this subject. YOU ARE BEING LIED TO. If anything else it is obvious that we must scratch it all and start over with the research! For me, it is enough that I know the Problem, Reaction, Solution game and the agenda and I will no longer be conned!
What more do you need to be skeptical of these arrogant a-holes? Millions are starving, there is poison in our food and water, lakes and oceans. Pollution is very real, but so is greed and so is ignorance. So you better be skeptical of any damn thing that fits this agenda and anything that comes from these corrupt Corporate dirt-bags and pawns.
INCLUDING DR. MASTERS! I have followed his tropical outlooks for years and really respected him, but for him to push this agenda is it! You claim to be a Dr., yet you push this garbage. I am sure this will make some happy but I will no longer subscribe and follow anyone who bows down and spews this warming garbage any longer. If you want to see the curruption stop then stop using this website. We will leave all these "scientist" alone on this page and let them debate each other on the 0.00001 degrees and 0.0000001 ft sea-level rise in the next 2.3 to 189 years. Let them pay the carbon taxes if they like, that will be plenty to save GE and Shell Co.. But if I don't want to hold my farts and believe the ones who are doing the mass polluting are the ones behind the whole climate change system for a Carbon Tax to fund a World Gov. I shouldn't have to pay a dime or do anything to fund this LIE!

Pollution--> BAD! Scientific LIES---BAD!
Weather Modification----> BAD! Link
Planned/Perceived Obsolescence-->BAD! Link
(Same who push the Planned Ob fund Carbon Taxes)
Skepticism----> Good

CLIMATE DICTATORSHIP OVER RECOURCES!

Then some are blaming the hackers? HAHAHAHAHAHA. When someone is spreading lies via newspapers, tv, word of mouth, it is the duty as a citizen to prove the lies that are killing, starving and stealing. Those should be the heroes. But only war mongers like Obama/Bush (same puppet) get the Nobel Peace Prize! Anyone condemning the hackers are idiots! They aren't hacking people's bank accounts or stealing ID's, they are proving the lies and corruption!

Ignorance is NOT strength, War is NOT Peace, Freedom is NOT Slavery and to hell with those who say it is, or deny the chance to question EVERYTHING! There is just way too much info out there to believe this crap. I just hope some are able to read this while they are out buying worthless crap with credit cards that only last 6 months before it hits the landfill. Oh but maybe tomorrow? Wait no... that is small business Saturday. Brought to you by whom? Oh yeah, American Express...HAHA. Don't use cash, use credit or layaway.

Peace, Love and the search for TRUTH!


Media-FAIL

Link


Watch the Arctic Ice it tells you the TRUTH.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Aquaimage13:
If your not a skeptic and your not outraged, YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION! With my head out of my arse, I can tell something fishy is going on. ( No one can deny this) So with that knowledge you then must do what? Well you follow the money stupid! Who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain? The answer is simple and just like everything else in this CRONY-Capitalistic world it is the damn banks. You can keep clinging to Global Warming all you want but at this point you just look IGNORANT! Also, anyone claiming to be a scientist and or running a weather website that is pushing this BULLSHIT should seriously be held accountable. I think in the end when we do have this "great-awakening" people will turn to the ones pushing for the global government and the carbon taxes and hold them accountable. All of you compartmentalized pawns will answer to the ones who did question the liars and bigots and it will not be pretty. Especially when we know you are pawns for the evil ones who are polluting and mass-murdering worldwide but you are too damn stubborn and "proud" to admit that you have been conned.
Do we need to pollute less and find better alternative energies? Of course. Do we need "scientist" to watch out for us and report whatever they think is happening? Of course. Should they be paid by the governments and the elitist who all have the same globalist agenda? Well, if they are, those WILL NOT be the ones I trust. After decades of being lied to about almost everything you can think of, why in the hell do you still trust these people when their agenda is posted on every damn wall. Then you find out that the "scientist" that found these numbers work for them and yet you still are not skeptic?
This is why our country is where we are today. Because people are too proud to admit to being wrong. It is ok, just come out and say it with me. SOMETHING VERY WRONG IS HAPPENING AND IT PISSES ME OFF THAT I AM BEING LIED TO! No matter what your stance is on this subject. YOU ARE BEING LIED TO. If anything else it is obvious that we must scratch it all and start over with the research! For me, it is enough that I know the Problem, Reaction, Solution game and the agenda and I will no longer be conned!
What more do you need to be skeptical of these arrogant a-holes? Millions are starving, there is poison in our food and water, lakes and oceans. Pollution is very real, but so is greed and so is ignorance. So you better be skeptical of any damn thing that fits this agenda and anything that comes from these corrupt Corporate dirt-bags and pawns.
INCLUDING DR. MASTERS! I have followed his tropical outlooks for years and really respected him, but for him to push this agenda is it! You claim to be a Dr., yet you push this garbage. I am sure this will make some happy but I will no longer subscribe and follow anyone who bows down and spews this warming garbage any longer. If you want to see the curruption stop then stop using this website. We will leave all these "scientist" alone on this page and let them debate each other on the 0.00001 degrees and 0.0000001 ft sea-level rise in the next 2.3 to 189 years. Let them pay the carbon taxes if they like, that will be plenty to save GE and Shell Co.. But if I don't want to hold my farts and believe the ones who are doing the mass polluting are the ones behind the whole climate change system for a Carbon Tax to fund a World Gov. I shouldn't have to pay a dime or do anything to fund this LIE!

Pollution--> BAD! Scientific LIES---BAD!
Weather Modification----> BAD! Link
Planned/Perceived Obsolescence-->BAD! Link
(Same who push the Planned Ob fund Carbon Taxes)
Skepticism----> Good

CLIMATE DICTATORSHIP OVER RECOURCES!

Then some are blaming the hackers? HAHAHAHAHAHA. When someone is spreading lies via newspapers, tv, word of mouth, it is the duty as a citizen to prove the lies that are killing, starving and stealing. Those should be the heroes. But only war mongers like Obama/Bush (same puppet) get the Nobel Peace Prize! Anyone condemning the hackers are idiots! They aren't hacking people's bank accounts or stealing ID's, they are proving the lies and corruption!

Ignorance is NOT strength, War is NOT Peace, Freedom is NOT Slavery and to hell with those who say it is, or deny the chance to question EVERYTHING! There is just way too much info out there to believe this crap. I just hope some are able to read this while they are out buying worthless crap with credit cards that only last 6 months before it hits the landfill. Oh but maybe tomorrow? Wait no... that is small business Saturday. Brought to you by whom? Oh yeah, American Express...HAHA. Don't use cash, use credit or layaway.

Peace, Love and the search for TRUTH!


Media-FAIL

Link


lay off the dust! at least ease up on it
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting Aquaimage13:
If your not a skeptic and your not outraged, YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION! With my head out of my arse, I can tell something fishy is going on. ( No one can deny this) So with that knowledge you then must do what? Well you follow the money stupid! Who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain? The answer is simple and just like everything else in this CRONY-Capitalistic world it is the damn banks. You can keep clinging to Global Warming all you want but at this point you just look IGNORANT! Also, anyone claiming to be a scientist and or running a weather website that is pushing this BULLSHIT should seriously be held accountable. I think in the end when we do have this "great-awakening" people will turn to the ones pushing for the global government and the carbon taxes and hold them accountable. All of you compartmentalized pawns will answer to the ones who did question the liars and bigots and it will not be pretty. Especially when we know you are pawns for the evil ones who are polluting and mass-murdering worldwide but you are too damn stubborn and "proud" to admit that you have been conned.
Do we need to pollute less and find better alternative energies? Of course. Do we need "scientist" to watch out for us and report whatever they think is happening? Of course. Should they be paid by the governments and the elitist who all have the same globalist agenda? Well, if they are, those WILL NOT be the ones I trust. After decades of being lied to about almost everything you can think of, why in the hell do you still trust these people when their agenda is posted on every damn wall. Then you find out that the "scientist" that found these numbers work for them and yet you still are not skeptic?
This is why our country is where we are today. Because people are too proud to admit to being wrong. It is ok, just come out and say it with me. SOMETHING VERY WRONG IS HAPPENING AND IT PISSES ME OFF THAT I AM BEING LIED TO! No matter what your stance is on this subject. YOU ARE BEING LIED TO. If anything else it is obvious that we must scratch it all and start over with the research! For me, it is enough that I know the Problem, Reaction, Solution game and the agenda and I will no longer be conned!
What more do you need to be skeptical of these arrogant a-holes? Millions are starving, there is poison in our food and water, lakes and oceans. Pollution is very real, but so is greed and so is ignorance. So you better be skeptical of any damn thing that fits this agenda and anything that comes from these corrupt Corporate dirt-bags and pawns.
INCLUDING DR. MASTERS! I have followed his tropical outlooks for years and really respected him, but for him to push this agenda is it! You claim to be a Dr., yet you push this garbage. I am sure this will make some happy but I will no longer subscribe and follow anyone who bows down and spews this warming garbage any longer. If you want to see the curruption stop then stop using this website. We will leave all these "scientist" alone on this page and let them debate each other on the 0.00001 degrees and 0.0000001 ft sea-level rise in the next 2.3 to 189 years. Let them pay the carbon taxes if they like, that will be plenty to save GE and Shell Co.. But if I don't want to hold my farts and believe the ones who are doing the mass polluting are the ones behind the whole climate change system for a Carbon Tax to fund a World Gov. I shouldn't have to pay a dime or do anything to fund this LIE!

Pollution--> BAD! Scientific LIES---BAD!
Weather Modification----> BAD! Link
Planned/Perceived Obsolescence-->BAD! Link
(Same who push the Planned Ob fund Carbon Taxes)
Skepticism----> Good

CLIMATE DICTATORSHIP OVER RECOURCES!

Then some are blaming the hackers? HAHAHAHAHAHA. When someone is spreading lies via newspapers, tv, word of mouth, it is the duty as a citizen to prove the lies that are killing, starving and stealing. Those should be the heroes. But only war mongers like Obama/Bush (same puppet) get the Nobel Peace Prize! Anyone condemning the hackers are idiots! They aren't hacking people's bank accounts or stealing ID's, they are proving the lies and corruption!

Ignorance is NOT strength, War is NOT Peace, Freedom is NOT Slavery and to hell with those who say it is, or deny the chance to question EVERYTHING! There is just way too much info out there to believe this crap. I just hope some are able to read this while they are out buying worthless crap with credit cards that only last 6 months before it hits the landfill. Oh but maybe tomorrow? Wait no... that is small business Saturday. Brought to you by whom? Oh yeah, American Express...HAHA. Don't use cash, use credit or layaway.

Peace, Love and the search for TRUTH!


Media-FAIL

Link



Huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If your not a skeptic and your not outraged, YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION! With my head out of my arse, I can tell something fishy is going on. ( No one can deny this) So with that knowledge you then must do what? Well you follow the money stupid! Who has the most to lose and who has the most to gain? The answer is simple and just like everything else in this CRONY-Capitalistic world it is the damn banks. You can keep clinging to Global Warming all you want but at this point you just look IGNORANT! Also, anyone claiming to be a scientist and or running a weather website that is pushing this BULLSHIT should seriously be held accountable. I think in the end when we do have this "great-awakening" people will turn to the ones pushing for the global government and the carbon taxes and hold them accountable. All of you compartmentalized pawns will answer to the ones who did question the liars and bigots and it will not be pretty. Especially when we know you are pawns for the evil ones who are polluting and mass-murdering worldwide but you are too damn stubborn and "proud" to admit that you have been conned.
Do we need to pollute less and find better alternative energies? Of course. Do we need "scientist" to watch out for us and report whatever they think is happening? Of course. Should they be paid by the governments and the elitist who all have the same globalist agenda? Well, if they are, those WILL NOT be the ones I trust. After decades of being lied to about almost everything you can think of, why in the hell do you still trust these people when their agenda is posted on every damn wall. Then you find out that the "scientist" that found these numbers work for them and yet you still are not skeptic?
This is why our country is where we are today. Because people are too proud to admit to being wrong. It is ok, just come out and say it with me. SOMETHING VERY WRONG IS HAPPENING AND IT PISSES ME OFF THAT I AM BEING LIED TO! No matter what your stance is on this subject. YOU ARE BEING LIED TO. If anything else it is obvious that we must scratch it all and start over with the research! For me, it is enough that I know the Problem, Reaction, Solution game and the agenda and I will no longer be conned!
What more do you need to be skeptical of these arrogant a-holes? Millions are starving, there is poison in our food and water, lakes and oceans. Pollution is very real, but so is greed and so is ignorance. So you better be skeptical of any damn thing that fits this agenda and anything that comes from these corrupt Corporate dirt-bags and pawns.
INCLUDING DR. MASTERS! I have followed his tropical outlooks for years and really respected him, but for him to push this agenda is it! You claim to be a Dr., yet you push this garbage. I am sure this will make some happy but I will no longer subscribe and follow anyone who bows down and spews this warming garbage any longer. If you want to see the curruption stop then stop using this website. We will leave all these "scientist" alone on this page and let them debate each other on the 0.00001 degrees and 0.0000001 ft sea-level rise in the next 2.3 to 189 years. Let them pay the carbon taxes if they like, that will be plenty to save GE and Shell Co.. But if I don't want to hold my farts and believe the ones who are doing the mass polluting are the ones behind the whole climate change system for a Carbon Tax to fund a World Gov. I shouldn't have to pay a dime or do anything to fund this LIE!

Pollution--> BAD! Scientific LIES---BAD!
Weather Modification----> BAD! Link
Planned/Perceived Obsolescence-->BAD! Link
(Same who push the Planned Ob fund Carbon Taxes)
Skepticism----> Good

CLIMATE DICTATORSHIP OVER RECOURCES!

Then some are blaming the hackers? HAHAHAHAHAHA. When someone is spreading lies via newspapers, tv, word of mouth, it is the duty as a citizen to prove the lies that are killing, starving and stealing. Those should be the heroes. But only war mongers like Obama/Bush (same puppet) get the Nobel Peace Prize! Anyone condemning the hackers are idiots! They aren't hacking people's bank accounts or stealing ID's, they are proving the lies and corruption!

Ignorance is NOT strength, War is NOT Peace, Freedom is NOT Slavery and to hell with those who say it is, or deny the chance to question EVERYTHING! There is just way too much info out there to believe this crap. I just hope some are able to read this while they are out buying worthless crap with credit cards that only last 6 months before it hits the landfill. Oh but maybe tomorrow? Wait no... that is small business Saturday. Brought to you by whom? Oh yeah, American Express...HAHA. Don't use cash, use credit or layaway.

Peace, Love and the search for TRUTH!


Media-FAIL

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Thanksgiving bloggers,enjoy your day! No arguing !!LOL
Member Since: June 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting Ossqss:


On your hockey stick tunnels :)

Ya gotta love this guy. He exposed their bad science before most competent people really understood the deception. God rest his soul!


Ya gotta love him if one is a fan of empty rhetoric. But AGW is a scientific issue. It's highly unlikely that rhetorical tricks will change the laws of physics.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JBastardi:
Out of context? you must be taking your talking points from the warmists. That's the typical line.


It's not talking points. It's honesty. Without context, individual comments are meaningless. Posting such out of context comments is dishonest.


Quoting JBastardi:
You use circular reasoning. Of course I don't believe UEA and the emails show why. The email were between UEA faculty and other warmist faculty.


So, when UEA says something you believe supports you (or you can make it appear so), then UEA is trustworthy. But when they disagree (and you can't spin it) then they are dishonest frauds. Got it.

Good luck with that. LOL

Quoting JBastardi:
They were attempting to replicate Mann's hockey stick and emailed each other to say it could be done with any temperature data set. They said it was a load of bunk. Don't need any context to understand that.


Ah, I see. You are posting what you *wish* they said, rather than what they actually said. The Hockey Stick is alive and well and verified by other reconstructions. So even if UEA did claim it was bunk (which they didn't), then they would be wrong in light of those subsequent studies.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


On your hockey stick tunnels :)

Ya gotta love this guy. He exposed their bad science before most competent people really understood the deception. God rest his soul!

Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 21:47:57 +1100
From: “John L. Daly”
To: Chick Keller
CC: “P. Dietze”, mmaccrac, Michael E Mann, rbradley, wallace, Thomas Crowley, Phil Jones, McKitrick, Nigel Calder, John Christy, Jim Goodridge, Fred Singer, k.briffa
Subject: Re: Hockey Sticks again
Dear Chick & all

[I think Chick Keller wrote:]

the first is Keith Briffa’s rather comprehensive treatment of getting climate variations from tree rings: Annual climate variability in the Holocene: “interpreting the message of ancient trees”, Quaternary Science Reviews, 19 (2000) 87-105. It should deal with many of the questions people raise about using them to determine temperatures.

Take this from first principles.

A tree only grows on land. That excludes 70% of the earth covered by water. A tree does no grow on ice. A tree does not grow in a desert. A tree does not grow on grassland-savannahs. A tree does not grow in alpine areas. A tree does not grow in the tundra We are left with perhaps 15% of the planet upon which forests grow/grew. That does not make any studies from tree rings global, or even hemispheric.

The width and density of tree rings is dependent upon the following variables which cannot be reliably separated from each other. sunlight – if the sun varies, the ring will vary. But not at night of course.

cloudiness – more clouds, less sun, less ring.

pests/disease – a caterpillar or locust plague will reduce photosynthesis

access to sunlight – competition within a forest can disadvantage or advantage some trees.

moisture/rainfall – a key variable. Trees do not prosper in a droughteven if there’s a heat wave.

snow packing in spring around the base of the trees retards growth temperature – finally!

The tree ring is a composite of all these variables, not merely of temperature. Therefore on the 15% of the planet covered by trees, their rings do not and cannot accurately record temperature in isolation from the other environmental variables.

In my article on Greening Earth Society on the Hockey Stick, I point to other evidence which contradicts Mann’s theory. The Idso’s have produced more of that evidence, and a new article on Greening Earth has `unearthed’ even more.

Mann’s theory simply does not stack up. But that was not the key issue. Anyone can put up a dud theory from time to time. What is at issue is the uncritical zeal with which the industry siezed on the theory before its scientific value had been properly tested. In one go, they tossed aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE and LIA as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings – a proxy which has all the deficiencies I have stated above.

The worst thing I can say about any paper such as his is that it is `bad science’. Legal restraint prevents me going further. But in his case, only those restraints prevent me going *much* further.

Cheers
John Daly

John L. Daly
`Still Waiting For Greenhouse’

John Daly? Seriously? If you're going to quote a denialist at length, don't you think you should do better than one who a) speaks with logic, b) has at least some education in climate science, and c) hasn't been dead for nearly eight years?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Except that John Daly's writings lack any logic or scientific validity. He comes across as bitter without understanding the scientific issues or how science is conducted. Where did he get his degree again and in what?


Surely he isn't from NOAA. So how can you trust him? LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Except that John Daly's writings lack any logic or scientific validity. He comes across as bitter without understanding the scientific issues or how science is conducted. Where did he get his degree again and in what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Where did John Daly get his scientific degree?


Irrelevant to the indisputable logic he puts forth. Dance and redirect as you may. It just doesn't matter.

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Where did John Daly get his scientific degree?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonebuster:


What about NOAA's Hockey Stick? Still a Hockey Stick nonetheless!



On your hockey stick tunnels :)

Ya gotta love this guy. He exposed their bad science before most competent people really understood the deception. God rest his soul!

Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 21:47:57 1100
From: CJohn L. Daly
To: Chick Keller
CC: . Dietze, mmaccrac, Michael E Mann, rbradley, wallace, Thomas Crowley, Phil Jones, McKitrick, Nigel Calder, John Christy, Jim Goodridge, Fred Singer, k.briffa
Subject: Re: Hockey Sticks again
Dear Chick & all

[I think Chick Keller wrote:]

the first is Keith Briffas rather comprehensive treatment of getting climate variations from tree rings: Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees, Quaternary Science Reviews, 19 (2000) 87-105. It should deal with many of the questions people raise about using them to determine temperatures.

Take this from first principles.

A tree only grows on land. That excludes 70% of the earth covered by water. A tree does no grow on ice. A tree does not grow in a desert. A tree does not grow on grassland-savannahs. A tree does not grow in alpine areas. A tree does not grow in the tundra We are left with perhaps 15% of the planet upon which forests grow/grew. That does not make any studies from tree rings global, or even hemispheric.

The width and density of tree rings is dependent upon the following variables which cannot be reliably separated from each other. sunlight if the sun varies, the ring will vary. But not at night of course.

cloudiness more clouds, less sun, less ring.

pests/disease a caterpillar or locust plague will reduce photosynthesis

access to sunlight competition within a forest can disadvantage or advantage some trees.

moisture/rainfall a key variable. Trees do not prosper in a droughteven if theres a heat wave.

snow packing in spring around the base of the trees retards growth temperature finally!

The tree ring is a composite of all these variables, not merely of temperature. Therefore on the 15% of the planet covered by trees, their rings do not and cannot accurately record temperature in isolation from the other environmental variables.

In my article on Greening Earth Society on the Hockey Stick, I point to other evidence which contradicts Mann%u2019s theory. The Idsos have produced more of that evidence, and a new article on Greening Earth has `unearthed even more.

Manns theory simply does not stack up. But that was not the key issue. Anyone can put up a dud theory from time to time. What is at issue is the uncritical zeal with which the industry siezed on the theory before its scientific value had been properly tested. In one go, they tossed aside dozens of studies which confirmed the existence of the MWE and LIA as global events, and all on the basis of tree rings a proxy which has all the deficiencies I have stated above.

The worst thing I can say about any paper such as his is that it is `bad science. Legal restraint prevents me going further. But in his case, only those restraints prevent me going *much* further.

Cheers
John Daly

John L. Daly
`Still Waiting For Greenhouse%u2019
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting JBastardi:


You use circular reasoning. Of course I don't believe UEA and the emails show why. The email were between UEA faculty and other warmist faculty. They were attempting to replicate Mann's hockey stick and emailed each other to say it could be done with any temperature data set. They said it was a load of bunk. Don't need any context to understand that.


What about NOAA's Hockey Stick? Still a Hockey Stick nonetheless!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

That is complete nonsense. (I know what it's based upon and understand why you want to stick to vague assertion.)

And is that the same UEA that you denialists claim manipulates data? If so, why believe them now? Or why believe that they are suddenly competent? Maybe you have non-scientific reasons for doing so? ;)


You use circular reasoning. Of course I don't believe UEA and the emails show why. The email were between UEA faculty and other warmist faculty. They were attempting to replicate Mann's hockey stick and emailed each other to say it could be done with any temperature data set. They said it was a load of bunk. Don't need any context to understand that.
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting Birthmark:


Oooh! Look! Out of context quotes! Who could have foreseen such a tactic?! LOL


Out of context? you must be taking your talking points from the warmists. That's the typical line.
Member Since: July 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting JBastardi:


Oooh! Look! Out of context quotes! Who could have foreseen such a tactic?! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is a real climategate out there

"An ambulance pulls up behind you. You know it’s an ambulance because you can read AMBULANCE in your rear view mirror. But you can also read it when you look at the vehicle directly; because the human visual system has the ability to quickly correct complete inversions or left-right reversals of letters. In fact, a complete inversion is easier to read than letters that are rotated only partially.

This human ability to process complete inversions more quickly than just partial distortions, alas, lends itself to exploitation by ruthless propagandists who seek to create a chimerical world in which up is down, left is right, and good is smeared as evil.


Nowhere is this more apparent than in the netherworld of attacks on climate scientists."


The scandal isn’t the emails, it’s the hacking.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting JBastardi:


The guys at UEA had the same result. Can they be math amateurs and we are changing our entire way of life because of them? The entire point of my post was that no matter what they fed into the model, they got the same result. The fraudulent hockey schtick. The emailers admitted as much.

That is complete nonsense. (I know what it's based upon and understand why you want to stick to vague assertion.)

And is that the same UEA that you denialists claim manipulates data? If so, why believe them now? Or why believe that they are suddenly competent? Maybe you have non-scientific reasons for doing so? ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.