Using Predictions to Plan: Case Study – La Nina and the Missouri River (1)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:11 PM GMT on January 14, 2012

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Using Predictions to Plan: Case Study – La Nina and the Missouri River (1)

Back in November I wrote an entry on whether or not we could use the prediction that we would have La Nina conditions in late 2011 and early 2012 to anticipate, for example, whether or not there would be a another historic flood in the Upper Missouri River. A little personal micro history: During August of 2011, I was at a meeting of a panel which is writing a report on climate modeling. That meeting included climate-savvy water managers talking about the information from climate models they might find usable. During the meeting on the news, there was the story that seasonal forecasts predicted there would La Nina conditions in late 2011 and early 2012 ( Climate Prediction Center Monthly Outlook). I asked people at the meeting how they would use this information in their planning for 2012. To be fair, this question was out of the blue, but I had this idea that this seasonal prediction was definitive information when compared with the information that comes from century-long projections from climate models. The century long climate predictions might provide information that some characteristics of El Nino and La Nina will change. With adequate analysis of this information, interpretation of the information, and then guidance or translation of this information, then informed decisions about, for example, reservoir design might be made. But I was curious, given a forecast for a particular season, what would you do?

I have introduced a lot of terms in that paragraph. I will define some of them.

First for those who need information on El Nino and La Nina, these are names given to two parts of an oscillation observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In the El Nino phase, the eastern Pacific, off of Peru for instance, is warm. La Nina is the opposite, the eastern tropical Pacific is cold. This is our best known example of behavior where the atmosphere and ocean behave in concert together – and we have proven that we can predict it. (NOAA LaNina Page, El Nino @ Wikipedia) We have known for some time that these changes in the Pacific cause or influence preferential weather patterns in other parts of the world. This excites people about being able to do seasonal prediction. In this case there is some oceanic forcing of the weather – or perhaps, when the ocean is considered part of the weather prediction problem, there is information about what the weather might be like for a particular season in a particular place. Concretely, for example, when there is an El Nino, people who worry about floods in California go on high alert (for example).

Translation and guidance - There is a lot of information that comes out of a weather and climate model. All practitioners of modeling know that you can’t simply read off the temperature in Des Moines 9 months from now, much less 90 years in advance. But there is the real possibility that there is usable information in the models if 1) we understand the mechanisms that are responsible for, say, stream flow in the Iowa River, and 2) we have an understanding of the ability or inability of the model to represent those mechanisms. That is, if we can find the right knowledge, often a matter of finding the right people, then we can put together this knowledge in a way that is usable. This is what I mean by translation. It is the translation of knowledge from one discipline expert to another in a way that makes that knowledge usable. That is, to provide guidance. (Lemos and Rood on Useful and Usable)

OK – going down that path I introduced another term that I think demands more explanation. Mechanisms – when we look at a specific event like the 2011 Missouri River flood, we look for what factors come together to cause the flood. In the article that was referenced in the November blog, it was pointed out that there was an extraordinary snow cover on the Great Plains, and then a lot of rain on that snow, that caused melting, and collectively the accumulation of a lot of water that had to go downstream. So in this case, by mechanisms I mean what caused the event to happen. Perhaps the most important mechanisms that a climate model must represent to be usable for regional problems are those mechanisms that provide water to that region.

I am never quite sure if my style of writing is clarifying or just more confusing, but I get enough positive feedback that I think I clarify points for some – so I hope that the way I laid out this basic information makes sense. One more term - What I want to do is to translate information from observational studies and model predictions and make that information usable by someone. From my teaching the last 7 years, I have concluded that it is this translation of information that is the most essential missing ingredient in the usability of climate knowledge. There is a LOT of information and knowledge, but it is not easy to use.

So in this entry, I want to start the process of information translation. I warn in advance that this is a hazardous path. I am going to look at a few papers, in sub-disciplines of weather and climate, in which I am not expert. Hence, I am likely to make some mistakes, and I am hoping that doing this in public, motivates corrections of those mistakes. I take off down this path, because another thing I have discovered in the past seven years is that people who are not consummate experts in a subject are analyzing information and solving problems all over the world. And, I presume to imagine that I am more expert than most, and I presume to believe people when they tell me that I am reasonably good at translating information across discipline interfaces.

So I all start the analysis– and this is not irrelevant. I flew over a swath of the Great Plains last week, and I was struck by the lack of snow. I read Jeff Master’s blog on the extreme state of the Arctic Oscillation. At the beginning of every problem I collect information. This information inventory process is essential. With a little luck, you will find information that when all brought together can be synthesized into a solution strategy or at least contribute to informed decision making. In fact, I have tried to structure a template to problem solving for a project I am involved in, and it is here at glisaclimate.org. (What’s a GLISA?) I collected together a bunch of references that I thought might inform my translation. What, I am going to do now is extract the information from some of these references.

The first paper I am going to look at is by Bunkers et al. from the Journal of Climate in 1996. I chose this paper for a couple of reasons. First, a lot has been written that 2011 Missouri River flood had a La Nina influence. And, thinking about floods, one usually thinks about did it rain a lot? This paper is something of a sanity check, do we see changes in the rain in the Missouri River basin due to La Nina?

Bunkers et al. paper focuses on the “Northern Plains,” which is approximately North and South Dakota. The Missouri River and the Red River of the North are important drainages for these states, and they were in historic flood in 2011. The authors look at data as far back as the late 1800s. That is about as long as any record that we have in the United States. The short story of their findings is that they find that during El Nino, there is significantly enhanced precipitation in the months April through October that follow the onset of the El Nino. For the La Nina phase they find significantly less precipitation for the months May through August following the onset of La Nina. However, we cannot stop with the conclusion, El Nino = wet, La Nina = dry. El Nino and La Nina are often viewed as 2 year long events, and in the second year following the onset of El Nino it is usually a bit wetter than in years with neither an El Nino or a La Nina, but during April and May of that second year it is drier than average. The second year following the onset of the La Nina, it is in general dry. There is also temperature information in the paper, but I am going to keep my focus on precipitation for now.

Let’s recall the problem we are trying to address; namely, 2011 was a La Nina year with a huge flood on the Missouri River, and another La Nina is predicted for 2012, will we have a similar flood? One of the first things it makes sense to look at is the precipitation in the Missouri River basin. This paper looks at part of the Missouri River basin, and area where there were floods, and at least as far as La Nina is concerned we would expect less, not more, spring time precipitation. This seems contradictory to our 2011 experience.

Returning to the Bunker’s et al. paper, there are years when the relation described above did not hold. Bunker’s et al. extract seemingly robust signals, but there are exceptions to the rule. The exception to the rule requires us to consider the mechanisms that might be in play for a given year. We arrive therefore, at a problem of tailoring the information for a particular application. The relation that Bunkers et al. derived between El Nino / La Nina and precipitation in North and South Dakota is quite strong. So if you look at a climate model and it tells you that there will be more or less intense El Nino and La Nina cycles a century from now, the long-term water planner for Fargo might be able to anticipate the water system needed for her grand children. The statistical information might be enough – might, it requires more thought. For a particular season, however, we can’t use this information in isolation. It is just part of the portfolio.

So we have a sanity check that tells us that, indeed, there is documented variability of precipitation in the Missouri River basin, correlated with La Nina. But, at first blush, the La Nina variability in this region is towards drier conditions. We also, know, that what determines a flood is far more complex than “it rains a lot.” So while looking at the paper above gives us some good information, it motivates me to step back and think about all of the pieces – or mechanisms – that might work in concert to produce a flood. And it motivates me to seek whether or not such events are happenstance, or whether we can use our knowledge to anticipate, better, such extreme events. This series of blogs will go on for a while.



Figure 1. Characteristic position of wintertime jet streams during La Nina. From ClimateWatch Magazine: “The jet streams are high-altitude, racing rivers of air that can influence the path of storms as they track over North America from the Pacific Ocean. The jet streams meander and shift from day to day, but during La Niña events, they tend to follow paths that bring cold air and storms into the Upper Missouri River Basin. Map based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Adapted by Richard Rivera & Hunter Allen.”


Pilot Project on La Nina and the Missouri River Basin.

Link to webinars.



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Quoting NeapolitanFan:
A great summary concerning the fallacy of AGW:

Link
If by "great" you mean a difficult-to-read collage of gawdy graphics mixed with every denialist trope of the past 30 years, then, yes, it's great. Egads, what a mess...

I have respect for Rutan's earlier aircraft designs--and, in fact, flew one back in the 90s. But the poor guy has aged into just another conspiracy theory-loving anti-government crank. It's sad, really; it's like watching Leonardo da Vinci pick up fortune-telling in his old age.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
Show me the warming!

Link
Here you go. Please let me know whether I can help you with anything else.

uh-oh
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Denialists have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously hot El Nino year of 1998 for many years now to "prove" that the planet isn't warming; of course if one begins a time series by cherry-picking an outlier, they can fool the gullible and uninformed into believing whatever they wish. But those who follow the science know better.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
Show me the warming!

Link

You are not interested anyway so why should we?

Move you cursor over the image below.


Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:
James Hansen wrote a praising review of a book that espouses radical ideas of madman Keith Farnish called "Time's Up", which among insane ideas advocates eco-terrorism and the collapse of civilization as necessary to solve climate change.

http://joannenova.com.au/2010/01/hanson-barrackin g-for-lawless-destruction-and-the-end-of-civilizat ion/

Clarification re Civil Resistance from Dr. Hansen

Information about Joanne Nova
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
A great summary concerning the fallacy of AGW:

Link
Member Since: December 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Show me the warming!

Link
Member Since: December 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Dr. James Hansen speaking at the United Nations University.


Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 28, 2012)


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
306 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 29 2012 - 00Z TUE JAN 31 2012

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...


A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A VARY MODEST SUPPLE OF MOISTURE ... ONLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE ... BEHIND THIS FRONT ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ... STARTING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION ... LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ... AN OLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Talk about climate change denialism in the MSM: the Wall Street Journal (aka: "Fox News: Print Edition") yesterday published an opinion piece signed by 16 "scientists" (see comment #275, and the response #283). This opinion piece--a letter, really--urged politicians to do nothing in the way of mitigating CO2 emissions. To support this viewpoint, they used many of the same tired and debunked bits of contrarian nonsense anyone familiar with the issue has already heard a thousand times. They also engaged in ad hominem attacks on a few prominent climate scientists, using out-of-context quotes to back them up. (And, to make matters worse, it turns out that every one of the 16 "scientists" who signed that letter have a serious and demonstrated lack of expertise in actual current climate science).

But what's truly telling about the whole mess is that the WSJ just recently (2010) rejected publication of a scientifically-accurate essay jointly authored (and, thus, in effect "signed by") 255 members of the United States National Academy of Sciences that urged politicians toward action on climate change.

Get that? A science article penned by 255 actual practicing scientists was turned down in favor of a misleading and error-filled piece signed by fewer than 1/15th as many people. Amazing. And disturbing. And dangerous.

If you dare or care to compare, check them both out (Note that after rejection by the WSJ, the science essay was submitted to, and published by, Science Magazine).

WSJ opinion/letter signed by 16

Science Magazine essay signed by 255 (PDF)

None of this is a shock, really; Rupert Murdoch, who owns both the WSJ and Fox "News", is known far and wide for both his attacks on science and his unwavering support for the fossil fuel industry. And it's also no surprise that many would so desperately cling to the WSJ piece (read some of the online comments if you don't believe me). But what is shocking is that so many people are willing to throw away their children's future because doing anything to help save it is simply just too darn much work.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting nymore:
I agree with electric cars but with the battery technology now and what could be in the future what type of charger would we use. Also most people now a days can't even change their own oil so I think changing batteries may be a stretch. For people commuting around town only or short trip a compressed air run vehicle may be the way to go.


All right.. you were reacting to my abrasive personality not to the ideas. I stand back and let you and Rookie play and promise to red through the whole blog before responding from now on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
Build baby build whatever it is. It is not me with the problem I am all for it.


How do you reconcile your quote above with your comment about painting bike lanes? It would be great if instead of just standing to one side you supported bike lanes and fairness in competition with autos.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
Most new cars are electric really what golf cars.

BTW I don't want chicks that's what boys want. Men want women. You know what women like stability, nice things, cash and humor. Give me a picture of oil to show them and they won't care after they see the checkbook. When you become a man get back to us.


Have you seen the new cars? I agree that a lot of the urban mobility devices are glorified gold carts or scooters. But not all of them. Neither are the elctric bikes or electric motorcycles.

as for the other comments, is what you are saying is that you would do anything for money? (i.e. it doesn't matter about the state of the world as long as you have enough money to impress women? I think that pretty much sums up the denialist side of the argument.)
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Quoting nymore:
Caffeine is a drug what is your point. I speak from great experience in my past when it comes to illegal drugs, many would have called me a professional.

IOW stay on the porch son


well maybe the drugs have had an effect on your ability to reason.

You use Steve Jobs the fact that Steve Jobs used drugs as a reason to criticise Apple and hence justify Big Oil (which I don't understand but maybe the drugs again).

Then you brag about how many drugs you have done. I had a gold star around somewhere and when I find it you can have it: hurray you won the drug contest.

I was merely pointing out how stupid it is to criticise an idea or a company because the person behind it used drugs. i used alcohol as an example of a drug that is legal and which most adults in America use regularly. If points were veins, we would know you didn't use heroin.
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Quoting nymore:
I don't care how you get me my pizza just get my pizza here on time and warm. I think your Euro-trash behind should come here and paint bike lanes on the road. I suggest you start with the I75-I85 connector in Atlanta. I will wait to see how this pans out for you. When you are done we can take you and your bikes to North Dakota in winter and see how that pans out. I wish you good luck as you are gonna need it. Check and see what the line is at William-Hill on your success. I sometimes like to place a wager.


As I mentioned, it is people like you who are to blame.

I am not Eurotrash. I am American. My family has fought in most of the wars, panned for gold in Alaska long before cars went north, lived in Florida under 5 flags, Broward country is named after one of my ancesters. They came west in wagons and at one point owned one of hte first 100 cars in California and fought the Bristish before the revolutionary war. Etc., Etc

None of this matters for who I am obviously but I am pround of being American. I am embarrassed you claim to be American. America for me was the get up and go country, the get it done country, etc. They bike in Sweden in winter, they bike in Russia in winter. They bike in Canda in winter. What kind of pansy do thik Americans are? You are the Eurotrash for suggesting that Americans are too comfortable and lazy to change. You exemplify all the European steriotypes that I fight against everyday.

Do you lake the imagination to understand how biking could work? You seem to. Do you really think that a bike lane on the highway has to be as stupid as common sense suggests? Check out this http://bicyclecanberra.blogspot.com/2011/03/canber ras-big-ride.html:



Sorry no time to make it fit. But that is Autralia. Those eurotrash Autralians are doing something that we could except for people like you with your attitudes about how stupid anything new is.

Here is another link from BikePortland about the Netherlands. Here's one about Denmark. (Ok I searched for photos not great links). BUt still, I can't beleive how much people whinge on abotu how biking is impossible in winter or over long distances. Seriously, America should be the land where we teach other people how to do it, not hte land where we fall in line and do what they tell us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
No sir not over my head. You see as I read it, you like to play the game as they say on your home court. By this I mean you like to use your book smarts to gain an advantage. Yes sir I know you have a very high IQ. Although you have a massive inferiority complex when you are not on your home court and say have to play on my court, where street smarts are much more important.

You remind me of Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory.

I'm going to grab some beverages. I will be back shortly, as Rookie said maybe between us all 3 of us we can come up with something.
No comment Neo. I think it is probably spot on. I think you could be very useful to me and Rookie with our discussions. Whether I agree or not with said problem. I am willing to spitball ideas, all you have to do is swallow your ego. If you really care about said problem you are more than welcome to join the conversation as are all of you here on this blog.

Although I am not looking for cut and paste if you don't have a constructive idea of your own don't bother. I think we all know who this pertains too.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Check this out. Nice pics of today,if they are real. Glad the sites were off on that cannon no matter.

I got pinged with a message from http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ when it happened. Did you?

This is the kinda stuff I like to be aware of.

Have fun and Google "The Carrington Event" or here

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nymore, I believe that the first paragraph is the greatest compliment we could ever hope to achieve on the blogs. Thank you, for your efforts.

"When there is blood in the streets, I am making money."

I would like to see you join in the conversation or, at least follow along. You seem to have questions that you have yet to discover the answers for. You probably will not find the answers here but, you just might find a better way for you to ask your questions.

Nymore and I go back a short ways and only on the blogs. We use to talk at each other and then we discovered we have some common grounds. What I found our "talks" were then was, "another day older, and deeper in debt". We soon discovered that we can have conversations. I gained a great deal of respect for his viewpoints and, hopefully, so has he for mine. Regardless of this, we now have some ability to learn from each other and to come to a better understanding as to how we can reach our common goals. Will we make a difference? More than what we could have before.

I find it somewhat disheartening that you do not agree with all that nymore and I say. ;-)

With this, nymore, I must call it a night. A quick catch up on Dr. Master's blog and then I need to call it a night. I hope to continue tomorrow evening, if you are willing?
Will be driving across the ice tomorrow in my big black bitch as my kids (workers) call it (one ton Duramax crew cab not dually, lifted, hydraulic winches front and rear with custom bumpers, lots of motor work with extra turbo charger along with bully dog and built to the hilt ) to go fishing but maybe if we do well I will be in early other wise Sunday night.

BTW for those that have no fear, fear this thing. sorry to brag but I love my baby
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
I can see what i can find but a salt formation is extremely stable and for salt to boil is like 2600 degrees or something close to that, also salt does not like to transfer heat I believe. This is where Neo would be useful


Yes, I think that you are correct. Salt does make somewhat of an insulator. Neo is helpful, in many ways. Perhaps here as well?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:
Although I disagree with both of their positions on a lot of things, Nymore and Rookie's posts are a step in the right direction, a step TPTB which always try to control the dialogue in order to divide us into left/right reservations (even though we really have far much more in common with each other than we do with those parasitic leeches who don't want to see us unite) so we'll be easier to conquer they will always bring up relatively petty, divisive issues to keep the plebs arguing over and keep us focusing on our differences in a tribal us vs. them mindset.

Why is it dou you think that the banking lobbying firm Clark-Lytle's internal memo was so worried about the Tea Party (the original tea-party, not the Dick Armey FreedomWorks Tea Party "Express" people that hijacked it and using the label to confuse people) and Occupy Wall Street (the sensible ones, not the Lucis Trust, Soros people that tried to co-opt it, calling for more taxes on the merchant class or an end to free market capitalism) American Banker's Association was worried about OWS and the real Tea Party putting their differences aside and finding common ground against the crony-collectivist corporate welfare fascists. (that is what they are- economic fascists - by definition, I don't use the word lightly.)

Well-known Wall Street companies stand at the nexus of where OWS protestors and the Tea Party overlap on angered populism. Both the radical left and the radical right are channeling broader frustration about the state of the economy and share a mutual anger over TARP and other perceived bailouts. This combination has the potential to be explosive They'd rather see the plebs stay divided and fighting amongst each other over relatively trivial stuff than putting those differences aside and going after these criminals.

It is said that "your enemy of your enemy is your friend", though I can't ever see myself aligning with self-proclaimed Moaists or communists that know what is going on, but some of them are just misinformed, those you can work on as long as you approach them in a non-adversarial way, some of them can be reached.
I was able to talk to one guy at Occupy Dallas that was well-intentioned, just ignorant, he was talking about how we needed to "end capitalism" and explain to him that it's really crony state-capitalism and not the free market that is to blame, and that the banks getting bailouts is not at all synonymous with free market ideals, it's the crony-capitalists that are to blame(even that is not really a good term because it confuses people into thinking capitalism is bad, it's really a contadiction in terms anyway), that is why crony-collectivist is a more appropriate term to describe it, words matter as the decepticons like Frank Luntz that have used the force for evil well know, how you think your audience is percieving your message and how they actually are percieving it is often 2 totally different things.

Frank Luntz is such an evil genius- he's much more than just a "pollster", he's an advanced NLP tactician that has a deep understanding of framing, his book How words Work - that perception really is reality, remember the infamous quote from the Bush/Rove operative on how as an empire, they're able to create their own reality, and the people are kept in reaction mode, TPTB can always just create new realities. words used when how you talk to people, it's nothing all that new, they are just perfecting techniques learned from the master deceivers like Machiavelli, Hegel and Plato.

I don't really know all that much about climate change, admittedly other than the Earth is undoubtedly in a warming trend the past few decades, to what extent it is anthropogenic, I don't know. I don't think it's that black and white to where it's either all or nothing, I still believe the Sun has more to do with it than anything else, contrary to the Royal Society's preposterous claim that the Sun has no link at all to climate change whatsoever. I do know that history proves that TPTB never let a good crisis go to waste as Rahm Emanuel put it or the PNAC using the convenient "Pearl Harbor-like event" they needed to justify their previously stated goals. The ruling class will always pump up a crisis, real or perceived, to the max in order to get what they want, that's just what tyrants have always done throughout history. Think about it, if the goal is to deindustrialize destroy the middle class and herd the plebs near the and put into densely concentrated cities where they'll be easier to control and keep a watchful eye on, the green Agenda 21 global carbon tax method is a smart way to accomplish that goal, the old school totalitarian way with a great leader like Hitler wouldn't work in this day and age, they have to be more sophisticated about it.

It's like a cow being slaughtered, there's no reason to unnecessarily agitate the cow before it's killed, it's better to put it in a narrow chute with it's head put in a yoke so it's unable to see what's coming, it thinks it's human controllers are friendly right up to the moment that captive bolt pistol like from No Country for Old Men penetrates it's cranium. It was a midly autistic woman that invented this method, I'm also on the mild end of that spectrum (Asperger's), it's more of a blessing than a curse because I believe we can visualize some things like this better normal people, she said that in her book.
The point is that even if everything regarding what they say about climate change is true, it's still a perfect opportunity if you were a tyrant to use to get total control, it'd be more effective nowadays for them to accomplish that goal by wrapping themselves in the green flag of saving the planet.



Nymore, I believe that the first paragraph is the greatest compliment we could ever hope to achieve on the blogs. Thank you, for your efforts.

"When there is blood in the streets, I am making money."

I would like to see you join in the conversation or, at least follow along. You seem to have questions that you have yet to discover the answers for. You probably will not find the answers here but, you just might find a better way for you to ask your questions.

Nymore and I go back a short ways and only on the blogs. We use to talk at each other and then we discovered we have some common grounds. What I found our "talks" were then was, "another day older, and deeper in debt". We soon discovered that we can have conversations. I gained a great deal of respect for his viewpoints and, hopefully, so has he for mine. Regardless of this, we now have some ability to learn from each other and to come to a better understanding as to how we can reach our common goals. Will we make a difference? More than what we could have before.

I find it somewhat disheartening that you do not agree with all that nymore and I say. ;-)

With this, nymore, I must call it a night. A quick catch up on Dr. Master's blog and then I need to call it a night. I hope to continue tomorrow evening, if you are willing?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you have any studies on this? I would be interested in reading them. Did not salt domes once contain water?
I can see what i can find but a salt formation is extremely stable and for salt to boil is like 2600 degrees or something close to that, also salt does not like to transfer heat I believe. This is where Neo would be useful
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
this is why I say salt mine deep enough no ground water .


Do you have any studies on this? I would be interested in reading them. Did not salt domes once contain water?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting nymore:
I agree with electric cars but with the battery technology now and what could be in the future what type of charger would we use. Also most people now a days can't even change their own oil so I think changing batteries may be a stretch. For people commuting around town only or short trip a compressed air run vehicle may be the way to go.


A bit off subject but, I had a friend that once tried to charge his car battery using an electric cord to plug into a 110 VAC outlet and then connect straight to the battery terminals. I am certain that you can imagine the result of plugging 110 VAC onto a 12 VDC device? Let us say that it was a bit explosive!

You suggest that the charges would need to be idiot proof? Well, yes, I agree. This is where the universal connectors come into play. The connections can only be made one way. Certainly, idiots will find a way to defeat this, but?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The problem with placing spent rods under ground is there is always the possibility of ground water contamination. Radioactive decay can take thousands of years, for some of the isotopes. The only thing we need as much as a breathable atmosphere is drinkable water. ... You have no idea as to how much I wish we had a viable answer for the spent fuel rods. I would jump on the band wagon for nukes in a heart beat.
this is why I say salt mine deep enough no ground water .
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, but, would not a plan be easier to accomplish if we moved towards an infrastructure that better supports electric powered cars? Solar/wind charging stations with natural gas as a backup to them? We can even have stations that swap out your batteries for batteries that are already charged. We would need to work on a universal battery aray and universal battery terminals and connections. ... Most of us have cell phones but, can you swap batteries and chargers across different phones?
I agree with electric cars but with the battery technology now and what could be in the future what type of charger would we use. Also most people now a days can't even change their own oil so I think changing batteries may be a stretch. For people commuting around town only or short trip a compressed air run vehicle may be the way to go.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
You can put the rods deep underground, such as in a salt mine it is very stable over the long term. Earthquakes do present a problem but actually in very few areas. Also for the upper plains and midwest you could make a deal with Canada to let them have their pipeline if they make more dams on the nelson river and others for the electricity. They already have dams on this river which turn out massive amounts of power.


The problem with placing spent rods under ground is there is always the possibility of ground water contamination. Radioactive decay can take thousands of years, for some of the isotopes. The only thing we need as much as a breathable atmosphere is drinkable water. ... You have no idea as to how much I wish we had a viable answer for the spent fuel rods. I would jump on the band wagon for nukes in a heart beat.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nukes are better than wind and solar but, only in the sense that you regulate the flow. My real concern with nukes is the spent fuel rods. They will continue to amass and no viable plan of what to do with them on the horizon. Nuclear fusion is much more "friendly", if we can get there.

Where we build them will be subject to the geological stability of the area. Coal fired plants are usually located as close as possible to where the coal can be easily shipped. This is not a consideration for nuclear reactors. Geological stability is the key for the location of nukes.
You can put the rods deep underground, such as in a salt mine it is very stable over the long term. Earthquakes do present a problem but actually in very few areas. Also for the upper plains and midwest you could make a deal with Canada to let them have their pipeline if they make more dams on the nelson river and others for the electricity. They already have dams on this river which turn out massive amounts of power.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
Build nukes for your base power and have wind, solar and natural gas turbines next to existing pipelines for peak load


Yes, but, would not a plan be easier to accomplish if we moved towards an infrastructure that better supports electric powered cars? Solar/wind charging stations with natural gas as a backup to them? We can even have stations that swap out your batteries for batteries that are already charged. We would need to work on a universal battery aray and universal battery terminals and connections. ... Most of us have cell phones but, can you swap batteries and chargers across different phones?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting nymore:
I would have to say the best way to replace coal fired plants is to either replace with nukes. I find this the best as the natural gas would require more infrastructure as in pipelines. Build the nukes next to the coal fired power plants. minimal changes would be required to the grid also


Nukes are better than wind and solar but, only in the sense that you regulate the flow. My real concern with nukes is the spent fuel rods. They will continue to amass and no viable plan of what to do with them on the horizon. Nuclear fusion is much more "friendly", if we can get there.

Where we build them will be subject to the geological stability of the area. Coal fired plants are usually located as close as possible to where the coal can be easily shipped. This is not a consideration for nuclear reactors. Geological stability is the key for the location of nukes.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Build nukes for your base power and have wind, solar and natural gas turbines next to existing pipelines for peak load
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Coal is the dirtiest but, only by a small factor. Coal is certainly a start and I believe that natural gas is the bridge we could use to get off coal. The short term costs are considerable less than the long term costs and not with just the effects on the climate. Public health is another major factor that must be considered. .. Ask the Chinese.
I would have to say the best way to replace coal fired plants is to either replace with nukes. I find this the best as the natural gas would require more infrastructure as in pipelines. Build the nukes next to the coal fired power plants. minimal changes would be required to the grid also
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
most big waste management firms already recycle all your garbage that is recyclable as they make money from it. It is becoming a bigger and bigger part of their business.


That is the beauty of it all! When you consume less, you save money. Not just on the up front costs but, also on repairs and general upkeep. When you conserve what you use, you also save money. When you recycle what you discard, you also have the chance to make a little money and create jobs here. ... Who doesn't like to save money?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting nymore:
Well since your biggest problem is probably not oil but coal, I think that is where you have to start. It is the least intrusive and the most benefit


Coal is the dirtiest but, only by a small factor. Coal is certainly a start and I believe that natural gas is the bridge we could use to get off coal. The short term costs are considerable less than the long term costs and not with just the effects on the climate. Public health is another major factor that must be considered. .. Ask the Chinese.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, I do. As I have said the time for presenting any plans is not quite with us yet. What we each can do now, without any government influence in our lives, is to limit what you consume, conserve what you consume and to recycle what you discard. I see this as the only realistic approach we all can take and make a difference now. This will buy us some time, hopefully, to lay down a road map that reaches the desired destiny. This, to me, means a better chance for future generations to live as comfortable as possible and with at least the same opportunities for them as we have enjoyed. A different world, certainly. With the same opportunities, hopefully.
most big waste management firms already recycle all your garbage that is recyclable as they make money from it. It is becoming a bigger and bigger part of their business.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
Do you have any ideas on where to start?


Yes, I do. As I have said the time for presenting any plans is not quite with us yet. What we each can do now, without any government influence in our lives, is to limit what you consume, conserve what you consume and to recycle what you discard. I see this as the only realistic approach we all can take and make a difference now. This will buy us some time, hopefully, to lay down a road map that reaches the desired destiny. This, to me, means a better chance for future generations to live as comfortable as possible and with at least the same opportunities for them as we have enjoyed. A different world, certainly. With the same opportunities, hopefully.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


OSHA, like it for what it is or not, saves lives. A bit too intrusive at times? Yes, but so are seat belts. ;-)

My way of thinking is that little to nothing can be done towards working for solutions before the next elections. Once we understand better what the obstacles will be, the better we can move towards what are the realistic solutions. Still, it should be best to have proposals for solutions at the ready. When the time comes that they can be presented before those that govern us we need something to present. A workable plan. The bridges need to laid soon but, their spans need to be short. Otherwise, we are just building bridges. Do you have any thoughts on this?
Well since your biggest problem is probably not oil but coal, I think that is where you have to start. It is the least intrusive and the most benefit
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
Kind of like OSHA and some on here, if they claim we have a problem whether I agree or not lets fix the problem.


OSHA, like it for what it is or not, saves lives. A bit too intrusive at times? Yes, but so are seat belts. ;-)

My way of thinking is that little to nothing can be done towards working for solutions before the next elections. Once we understand better what the obstacles will be, the better we can move towards what are the realistic solutions. Still, it should be best to have proposals for solutions at the ready. When the time comes that they can be presented before those that govern us we need something to present. A workable plan. The bridges need to laid soon but, their spans need to be short. Otherwise, we are just building bridges. Do you have any thoughts on this?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Do you have any ideas on where to start?
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am doing fine this evening. I trust that you are doing well also?

I am afraid that my stay tonight will shortened, for I have a client's computer that I need to set up and be ready for Monday morning.

Solutions are what we both seem to be interested in and I sense that the time grows too short for us to not start working on the solutions. What are your thoughts on this?
Kind of like OSHA, if they claim we have a problem whether I agree or not lets fix the problem.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting nymore:
Hello Rookie how is your evening going


I am doing fine this evening. I trust that you are doing well also?

I am afraid that my stay tonight will shortened, for I have a client's computer that I need to set up and be ready for Monday morning.

Solutions are what we both seem to be interested in and I sense that the time grows too short for us to not start working on the solutions. What are your thoughts on this?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Hello Rookie how is your evening going
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
For the hell of it & to pass sometime while waiting on the "mrs to be" to get home I did some number crunching for the month of January over the past 5 yrs from 2006 till the present. As I distinctly recalled the past 3 years (Jan 2009/2010/2011) were much more what we expect in a typical Michigan winter. In those years nearly everyday other then a couple did not rise above the freezing pt (32)or even out of the 20's in most cases; furthermore low temps frequently hovered in single digits on a few nights went below zero. In addition we had significant amounts of snow. Several medium to large storms & many 1-2" events inbetween. Most whom live in the midwest probably recall the very large blizzard that occured i believe on Feb 1, 2011? We received about a foot here in detroit; however we were on the low end compared to places like chicago. At any rate jan 2009/10/11 were as cold or colder as any winter in the past 100 years. Going back a bit farther and reviewing January 2006/2007/2008 were in fact nearly as mild as this jan (2012) has been. I found a particular week in jan 2008 when the temps were in the 50's & 60's for a solid week. While there were many similar mild days in those 3 years there still were extended periods of cold(sub freezing)stretches. I haven't delved into february as of yet; however im slightly less alarmed then I was the other day when I didn't recall such frequent above average temps as we have had recently; however the periods of cold thus far have been much briefer then even in those 3 years. This year it hasn't stayed below 32 for more then a few days at any time; therefore thats a stat that seems even more abnormal. We still have all of feb & march has been known to be quite cold & in some cases the snowiest of all winter months in some past years so the jury on this winter is still out. As I mentioned Im going to crunch the months February& March for those same years when I get a chance. As far as current conditions it was well into the 30s with rain lastnite before the temps finally dropped to around 30 changing the rain to snow leaving a slushy inch or so this morning. That quickly melted as the temps rose into the low 40s today. It is forcast to snow a couple 3 inches or so & be seasonably cold this weekend before rising back into the 40's again next week?? So very little in the way of extended cold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Swoosh-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h.....

That's the sound of my post going over someone's head. ;-)
No sir not over my head. You see as I read it, you like to play the game as they say on your home court. By this I mean you like to use your book smarts to gain an advantage. Yes sir I know you have a very high IQ. Although you have a massive inferiority complex when you are not on your home court and say have to play on my court, where street smarts are much more important.

You remind me of Sheldon from the Big Bang Theory.

I'm going to grab some beverages. I will be back shortly, as Rookie said maybe between us all 3 of us we can come up with something.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting Xandra:
Big Oil puts $1 into Congress and gets $59 out.




That is the ROI I was speaking of.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting nymore:
Rookie this post should say everything you need to know about him. There are those that do and those who talk about doing. I think we know what I am and what he is. I said I am willing, him not so much. Maybe he thinks he can just talk it away.

BBL Rookie

Swoosh-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h-h.....

That's the sound of my post going over someone's head. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are some people who claim they wish to discuss solutions to the problem of climate change while somehow simultaneously claiming that no problem exists in the first place. Those people can be difficult to work with. Like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. Like corralling cats. Like pushing water uphill... ;-)

Now, I'm often accused by some here of not offering solutions to climate change, but that's a false claim, of course; working to counter the numerous longstanding lies told by Big Oil and some politicians and TV "news" networks is part of the solution. See, combating climate change is a multi-disciplined war being waged on many different fronts; just because a particular person isn't busy engineering next-generation solar cells or bird-safe wind turbines or efficient carbon-sequestering devices doesn't mean he or she is not a valid and valuable participant in that war. They may go unappreciated in this particular forum, but I'm proud of and satisfied with what I've done, what I'm doing, and what I plan to do to help keep the world from reaching a boiling point.*

* - Not literal.
Rookie this post should say everything you need to know about him. There are those that do and those who talk about doing. I think we know what I am and what he is. I said I am willing, him not so much. Maybe he thinks he can just talk it away.

BBL Rookie
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
Quoting greentortuloni:


Nope it is people like you. IINstead of sitting on your but complaining about how pizzas delivered using renewable energy are always cold, go do something: Vote for renewable energy politicians explaining why. Write to your local politician to ask for bike lines (as in Holland, not crappy little painted lines). Go out to a street near you and paint those crappy little lines on the street (civil disobediance, gasp, it must be communist! Or is civil disobediance American.) Buy an electric bike. Ask your library to put in a charging station. Etc Etc.

It is exactly people like you who stop these projects. People like you, me, Nea and Pat etc.
Build baby build whatever it is. It is not me with the problem I am all for it.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.

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Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.
Clouds in the lee of the Rockies at sunset.