A Hot Day’s Night: The Beetles
A Hot Day’s Night: The Beetles -
The semester is almost over here in Michigan, and I am looking forward to more regularity in writing these blogs. Sorry for the recent infrequency, and the occasional excursions into the arcane. I am looking for well posed, interesting, new questions to focus on, and you know how to find me if you have a good idea. In this entry I want to build of the recent heat and the early spring.
The thread I made through the last blog ended up with Plant Hardiness Zones, which are those maps that gardeners and farmers use to decide when to plant seeds. Over the last 20 – 30 years the warming of the planet has caused the northern migration of these zones. The Washington Post has an excellent graphic that shows the changes between 1990 and 2012. Since I am not so facile, I have taken from this graphic the two extremes, 1990 and 2012.
Figure 1: 1990 U.S. Plant Hardiness Zones. (From Washington Post)
Figure 2: 2012 U.S. Plant Hardiness Zones. (From Washington Post)
What I want to look at here are the very coldest temperatures, the purples. If you look at Zone 2b, the zone below -40 degrees F, it essentially disappears between 1990 and 2012. Zone 3a, which is between -35 degrees F and – 40 degrees F becomes much smaller.
So this past winter, and especially March 2012, was extraordinarily warm in the 48 contiguous states. In fact, I, who fly too much, had one of the easiest winters of travel. Based on Jeff Master’s blogs, I chose several times to go through Chicago, and for the most part I have landed with splendid views of a blue Lake Michigan. There was an interesting piece on Talk of the Nation, noting the relation between a warm winter and the lack of flu. So what is the problem? It’s not below -40 degrees anymore. Air travel is easier. We might have less flu. Does anyone besides me, planting potatoes on a dry 80 degree day in March, worry about this?
I have been spending a lot of time with beetle-killed wood this year. You might recall a couple of blogs back in 2009 where I talked about the pine beetles which are killing millions of acres of pine trees in the western U.S. and Canada. (Climate Change and the Forest, Climate and the Beetle) It is beautiful wood, often with a light blue tint. I am using it to restore a couple of 100 year old out buildings. There is a LOT of it; in fact, more than one can imagine managing. There is some lumber being made, some fire wood being made, but for the most part there are millions of acres of dead trees. I have talked to a couple of people who wonder why there is not more outrage about these massive forest kills. That’s fodder for the comments.
Back up to the maps. The pine beetle responsible for killing the pines in the Rockies is itself killed, controlled, by temperatures less the -40 degrees F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In the map below, I have used the interactive version of the map from the US Department of Agriculture to extract the State of Colorado. There are only very small areas of Zone 3a remaining.
Figure 3: Plant hardiness zones in Colorado for 2012. From US Department of Agriculture.
We adapt to climate change – or we will. Now, one of the most effective adapters seems to be the Mountain Pine Beetle. In The American Naturalist there is a pre-publication posting of an article on the Unprecedented Summer Generation of the Mountain Pine Beetle. That is, rather than there being one generation of Mountain Pine Beetle during the year, in Colorado, in recent years there have been two broods. The paper is by Mitton and Ferrenberg. There is a press release of the paper here.
They noted in 2008 pine beetles flying and attacking pines more than a month earlier than the historic norm. They set up experiments to test three hypotheses: 1) That temperature had not changed; 2) That the length and timing of the flight season had not changed; and 3) the life cycle of the beetle had not changed. Their results found that there had been significant warming, with spring coming earlier. They found that the behavior of the pine beetle was explained by earlier emergence of the beetles, followed by a second brood of the beetles in the summer. Figure 4 shows this schematically. It is striking to see the move to earlier springs in the figure – as with the hardiness zones.
Figure 4: The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for <0°C, yellow for 0°–4.99°C, orange for 5°–9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming.
This research took place in an area that in the 1970s was judged to be “climatically unsuitable for Mountain Pine Beetle development … .” The study is convincing that the devastation of the forest due to the pine beetle is directly related to the warming planet. It points out the vulnerability of the tree populations, as the trees that are being impacted now have not developed a historical resistance to the pine beetle. Since most of the beetles that are born live, this impact is not incremental, as that second generation is enormous.
So, yes, this warm winter has had its advantages - less fuel oil was needed. But in the western forest we are seeing this case study of wide ranging ecological disruption. The consequences of the disruption will unfold in the next decades. Questions of fire and soil erosion will emerge. The impact on tourism will be realized - and, of course, water quality and the change in the ecosystems of the western forests. The Mountain Pine Beetle is adapting rapidly to global warming, what are our strategies to adapt to the Pine Beetle?
r
Reader Comments
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Next time, maybe you should find something scientific, not an easily debunked, poorly-written piece of antiscience nonsense in the user-generated Examiner. Ya think?
..mmmm,k
How Bout Saturday?,..wait, I have a Body Building show Sat.
Because if you do find a REAL mayan restaurant, order one of the sandwiches.... ecellent salsa.
The only in Indian tribe I know that makes a better sandwich is the West Georgia peabeanja tribe.
Hee hee hee, I am an idiot.
Tell Muscle-y Joe I said, "Hey", will you? Thanks.
No Letup in World's Warming
Global warming contrarians remind the public that the world has not warmed all that much, if at all, during the past decade or so. But that's the atmosphere. Oceanographers with their thermometers in Earth's biggest reservoir of heat—the world's ocean—report in a paper to be published in Geophysical Research Letters that greenhouse warming has in fact been proceeding apace the past decade, not to mention the past half century. Ninety-three percent of the heat trapped by increasing greenhouse gases goes into warming the ocean, not the atmosphere. So taking the ocean's temperature is the most comprehensive way to monitor global warming. A group of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists has revised and updated their decade-old compilation of temperature measurements from the upper 2000 meters of the world's ocean. Its store of heat (red line with error bars) steadily increased over the past 20 years. And the upper ocean has warmed so much in the past 50 years that its added heat would be enough to warm the lower atmosphere by about 36°C (thankfully a physically impossible feat).
Key Points from the paper World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000), 1955-2010:
- A strong positive linear trend in exists in world ocean heat contentsince 1955
- One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean
- The warming can only be explained by the increase in atmospheric GHGs
Whatever the Public’s Opinion on Wild Weather and Climate Extremes, World’s Scientists Report the Same Manmade Warming, but Worsening — With New Discoveries About the Jet Stream
——-
Nature’s Edge Notebook #25
Observation, Analysis, Reflection, New Questions
Just a quick note on an engaging video that can give you a glimpse of the new science on the jet stream… following a brief thought on public opinion and the worsening wild weather around the planet.
Recent reports say public opinion is beginning to swing back up to a larger majority who “believe in global warming.”
A New York Times headline says, “In Poll, Many Link Weather Extremes to Climate Change.”
Actually, that link appears to be old news.
Professor Jon Krosnick, who has been doing energy and climate public opinion research at Stanford University’s Woods Institute, has looked closely at the opinions of the 30 percent of people who have low confidence in scientists — crucial “swing voters” in polls about climate.
He tells ABC News that his polling data, going back a number of years, shows that the belief in global warming among this “low confidence 30 percent” goes up and down each year in step with how bad or extreme the weather was in the previous year.
And that it doesn’t seem to be responding all that much, he says, to whatever the global warming denialist campaigns may have been doing.
Not exactly.....................
Truly ridiculous graph. It is questionable that the current ice volumes depicted are correct. Do you really expect anyone to accept that the volumes depicted over historical periods when the current technology wasn't even in use are to be accepted by us. They are GUESSES Cyclone. This is so intellectually dishonest. You should either be ashamed or embarrassed.
How wrong you are....... Watch how rapidly the ice disappears in the Bearing Sea as it is so thin. The thin ice which is less massive than thicker ice will melt quicker from both above and below.
A textbook case of the Fallacy of Personal Incredulity if ever there was one.
Seriously? The graph you provided doesn't really make you're point very well. Some observations:
First, I fail to see anywhere in your graph that shows that Bering Sea Ice is disappearing any faster this year than in previous years; granted, it's difficult to tell since the melt season has barely begun there. Added: Actually, looking at the graph, I don't see how you could ever say a particular year melted faster than the others. Every melt season is represented by near vertical lines on the graph.
Secondly, it appears that the Bering Sea is ice-free at some point every year since 1979, so really it has always been entirely first-year ice; why would it be any thinner than normal this year?
Thirdly, and more of just an aside since it is not directly related to your statements, it's interesting that the ice area and the ice area anomaly for the Bering Sea are both at their highest levels currently than at any time since 1979. It's not particular meaningful since it is just a small area of the arctic, but it's still kind of funny being that you chose that particular graph to illustrate your point.
Or a case of I refuse to look at newer technology because you can't teach an old dog a new trick.
I picked that graph because it will illustrate even though the extent is greater than anytime since 1979 it is also thinner than anytime since 1979 which means it is going to melt out quicker than anytime since 1979 because it is less MASSIVE. Watch what happens..........
Ahhh...I see. You're assuming that the PIOMAS model output from your prior post is an accurate representation of arctic ice volume--a point that some, including me, consider questionable--but, to each his own. It still seems that the Bering Ice graph really doesn't illustrate your point very well since you don't have PIOMAS values for the Bering Sea alone.
Link
Ahh! But it is still averaged into the total Arctic ice area. You must look at the ice in 3 dimensions.....
The important thing to remember is that while PIOMAS may not be completely accurate, it nonetheless shows a continual year-to-year downward trend in ice volume. If for no other reason than that, it's a very informative and telling metric.
Correct!
I see it, but you really have to compare it with animations for previous years for that to be meaningful, no?
№ 268
I doubt that the Bering Sea Ice is any thinner than usual myself, primarily because none of it carries over from year to year, as I noted before.
We do need to be able to see the ice in 3-D, I agree. I wonder what is going on with Cryosat-2?
Ha...I just checked the Cryosat website and saw something interesting. I'll put it in a separate post.
Added: Do note that it's 7:30am GMT, which is 3:30am EDT/2:30am CDT etc. I'm assuming that the video will stay up for anyone to watch later...I doubt many in the US will be watching it live.
HaHa...Do you even know what my "ideological stance" is?
The biggestOne reason that I believe that PIOMAS underestimates actual ice volume is from comparing what the PIOMAS output claims is average ice thickness (by dividing from ice area data from other sources) and comparing that to Cryosat-2, ARC, and PIPS2 thickness estimates. I did this once before (I'd have to go back and find the post) and the latter three tended to agree with each other while the value obtained from PIOMAS/Ice Area seemed too low to be comparable.Of course, this does speak more to the absolute estimate of volume, and not the relative changes year-to-year, as you note. However, if the model is poor at estimating the absolute volume, it would seem to be reasonable to ask if it can actually estimate the trend accurately as well.
And seriously...others of my ilk? Now you're just being hurtful ;^)
Added: Out for now...I'll be up late working on something so I'll probably check back tonight.
Edited
It's reasonable to ask, perhaps, but the two aren't necessarily related. Since it is the trend we're really interested in, then the absolute value is somewhat trivial. What's important is if PIOMAS' is consistent --even if it is consistently wrong. If it is consistent, then the trend can probably be calculated with reasonable accuracy.
What PIOMAS does to the initial thickness measurements it incorporates could very well make a difference in the trend. The number of measurements that are used must be quite scant or they could be used without modeling to estimate volume. I would think that only some type of formulaic interpolation would be needed to account for sparsity of data, but it appears that other variables are included as well. Some examples come from the PIOMAS home page itself, indicating that sea surface temperatures, surface air temperatures, wind, cloud cover, and solar insolation are considered. I'm having a bit of trouble of trouble finding it at the moment, but I seem to recall that even the NAO phase is incorporated.
My point is this: Many people treat PIOMAS as if it is a measurement; it may begin with some measurements but significant modification is done to that data. The trend of the final model output may be totally different than the trend of the original data. We really don't know for sure how accurate it is, trend or absolute value.
I also found the link to my prior comparison of PIOMAS, PIPS2, ARC and Cryosat-2 that I alluded to in № 273--although I see that PIPS2 data now requires a password for viewing from the previous link so I guess you'll have to take my word for the PIPS2 data.
Correct!! According to the article PIOMAS is very similar.
Tuesday's release shows a complete seasonal cycle, from October 2010, when the Arctic Ocean was beginning to freeze up following the summer melt, right through to March 2011, when the sea ice was approaching peak thickness. Cryosat found the volume (area multiplied by thickness) of sea ice in the central Arctic in March 2011 to have been 14,500 cubic kilometres.
This figure is very similar to that suggested by PIOMAS (Panarctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System), an influential computer model that has been used to estimate Arctic sea ice volume, and which has been the basis for several predictions about when summer sea ice in the north might disappear completely.
Link
Instead of speculating, I recommend you to read the report by Shweiger (2011)
Link
Occupy Boston Update 4/23/2012
April 23, 2012Gov. Tom Corbett is declaring a disaster emergency because of heavy snow in western Pennsylvania that's closed schools and left people without electricity.
Corbett announced the declaration Monday and activated the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency's state operations center.
The governor is also giving the OK for the National Guard to call soldiers to duty if needed to help with the response
By Jon Schmitz / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The village of Acme in Westmoreland County is 36 miles from Downtown and about 1,200 feet higher in the hills, and on Monday it was nearly 10 inches deeper.
Link
April 23, 2012
Link
There were a number of low temperature records set or tied today in the southeast. Mobile, AL, for instance, dropped down to 37 this morning, a full six degrees lower than the day's previous record of 43 (though safely above that location's all-time April low of 32). It remains to be seen how many low temperature records were set or tied last night; I would imagine there are probably dozens, if not 100 or more. At any rate, it would take a whole lot of them to help balance things out for the year, where high records are leading low records by 25,905 to 2,323.
LoL
FWIW, here are the four main objectives of Agenda 21:
1) Preparing and planning for a future that's even more crowded;
2) Conserving and managing dwindling resources;
3) Empowering indigenous groups to become self-sufficient;
4) Ensuring access to science and technology to everyone.
Oh, dear God! How evil! It's socialism, plain and simple!!!!!
Seriously, how about next time you post something about climate, not a lengthy and nonsensical rant by an aging hillbilly with a faded musical career based solely on riding his very talented father's good name into the ground?
Weren't you the one talking about what's happening in Italy etc etc and then ran away from the challenge because someone who knew Italy actually answered your made up 'secrets'?
SO the world's population is increasing. How would you manage it?
2) Ms Koire appears to be a Birther/Tea Party/Property Rights anti-government libertarian who has registered as a democrat to help further her cause;
3) To be honest, the woman appears to be nutty. You know: Orly Taitz nutty, keeps-a-hundred-cats-at-home nutty; is-convinced-that-Obama-is-a-muslim-atheist-kenyan -socialist-communist.
Bah, that's nothing! I was up in the mountains of NC today and there was snow on the ground. I might have seen a flake or two falling, though it could have just been the old snow getting blown around. It was very windy and in the 30s.
How any of that helps your cause is a mystery.
How does Ice melt at temps below 0 f? I don't hear anyone explaining that.
you want more? How about snow? give it up, your fear- mongering has brought you no benefits.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Getting Lost Last Year
I got lost in the details of travel and the hassle of finding places to work on the blog/sort pictures and talk about the travels. The massive environmental upheaval caused by global warming in the pine and spruce forest of Idaho and Montana is stunning. The forest is dieing. Pine Beetle and Spruce Moths are unchecked by the long frosts of winter. The result is hundreds perhaps thousands square miles of dead and dieing forests. There is the loss of the wood and timber...the water holding of the trees, the air purification, the oxygen generation but, more.... The millions of pine and spruce needles in the waters have changed the PH of the lakes and streams. The water born insect life is gone. Three different streams, three hoops set out for three days each ... less than 20 insects collected where there should have been thousands. Breeding salmon seen but no fry, no first or second year fish, no trout, no white fish, no suckers...the streams are dead.
Sorry my mind is still struggling with the facts and unsure as to how I will deal with those who say my truth is lies. Will they come walk the streams, roll the rocks, hang the hoops, count the insects, float the rivers and prove me wrong or will they simply move their mouths in denial? I was unable to write this last summer and do not know what I can do this year.
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