A Hot Day’s Night: The Beetles
A Hot Day’s Night: The Beetles -
The semester is almost over here in Michigan, and I am looking forward to more regularity in writing these blogs. Sorry for the recent infrequency, and the occasional excursions into the arcane. I am looking for well posed, interesting, new questions to focus on, and you know how to find me if you have a good idea. In this entry I want to build of the recent heat and the early spring.
The thread I made through the last blog ended up with Plant Hardiness Zones, which are those maps that gardeners and farmers use to decide when to plant seeds. Over the last 20 – 30 years the warming of the planet has caused the northern migration of these zones. The Washington Post has an excellent graphic that shows the changes between 1990 and 2012. Since I am not so facile, I have taken from this graphic the two extremes, 1990 and 2012.
Figure 1: 1990 U.S. Plant Hardiness Zones. (From Washington Post)
Figure 2: 2012 U.S. Plant Hardiness Zones. (From Washington Post)
What I want to look at here are the very coldest temperatures, the purples. If you look at Zone 2b, the zone below -40 degrees F, it essentially disappears between 1990 and 2012. Zone 3a, which is between -35 degrees F and – 40 degrees F becomes much smaller.
So this past winter, and especially March 2012, was extraordinarily warm in the 48 contiguous states. In fact, I, who fly too much, had one of the easiest winters of travel. Based on Jeff Master’s blogs, I chose several times to go through Chicago, and for the most part I have landed with splendid views of a blue Lake Michigan. There was an interesting piece on Talk of the Nation, noting the relation between a warm winter and the lack of flu. So what is the problem? It’s not below -40 degrees anymore. Air travel is easier. We might have less flu. Does anyone besides me, planting potatoes on a dry 80 degree day in March, worry about this?
I have been spending a lot of time with beetle-killed wood this year. You might recall a couple of blogs back in 2009 where I talked about the pine beetles which are killing millions of acres of pine trees in the western U.S. and Canada. (Climate Change and the Forest, Climate and the Beetle) It is beautiful wood, often with a light blue tint. I am using it to restore a couple of 100 year old out buildings. There is a LOT of it; in fact, more than one can imagine managing. There is some lumber being made, some fire wood being made, but for the most part there are millions of acres of dead trees. I have talked to a couple of people who wonder why there is not more outrage about these massive forest kills. That’s fodder for the comments.
Back up to the maps. The pine beetle responsible for killing the pines in the Rockies is itself killed, controlled, by temperatures less the -40 degrees F. This is at the edge of the coldest temperatures normally seen in the U.S., and these cold extremes have largely disappeared since 1990. In the map below, I have used the interactive version of the map from the US Department of Agriculture to extract the State of Colorado. There are only very small areas of Zone 3a remaining.
Figure 3: Plant hardiness zones in Colorado for 2012. From US Department of Agriculture.
We adapt to climate change – or we will. Now, one of the most effective adapters seems to be the Mountain Pine Beetle. In The American Naturalist there is a pre-publication posting of an article on the Unprecedented Summer Generation of the Mountain Pine Beetle. That is, rather than there being one generation of Mountain Pine Beetle during the year, in Colorado, in recent years there have been two broods. The paper is by Mitton and Ferrenberg. There is a press release of the paper here.
They noted in 2008 pine beetles flying and attacking pines more than a month earlier than the historic norm. They set up experiments to test three hypotheses: 1) That temperature had not changed; 2) That the length and timing of the flight season had not changed; and 3) the life cycle of the beetle had not changed. Their results found that there had been significant warming, with spring coming earlier. They found that the behavior of the pine beetle was explained by earlier emergence of the beetles, followed by a second brood of the beetles in the summer. Figure 4 shows this schematically. It is striking to see the move to earlier springs in the figure – as with the hardiness zones.
Figure 4: The historical mountain pine beetle (MPB) univoltine life cycle (above calendar arrows and linked by black arrows) and the observed MPB bivoltine life cycle (below calendar arrows and linked by red arrows). Univoltine means one brood per year, and bivoltine means two broods per year. Calendar arrow colors represent monthly temperature regimes: blue for <0°C, yellow for 0°–4.99°C, orange for 5°–9.99°C, and red for 10°C and higher. From Mitton and Ferrenberg, Mountain Pine Beetle Develops an Unprecedented Summer Generation in Response to Climate Warming.
This research took place in an area that in the 1970s was judged to be “climatically unsuitable for Mountain Pine Beetle development … .” The study is convincing that the devastation of the forest due to the pine beetle is directly related to the warming planet. It points out the vulnerability of the tree populations, as the trees that are being impacted now have not developed a historical resistance to the pine beetle. Since most of the beetles that are born live, this impact is not incremental, as that second generation is enormous.
So, yes, this warm winter has had its advantages - less fuel oil was needed. But in the western forest we are seeing this case study of wide ranging ecological disruption. The consequences of the disruption will unfold in the next decades. Questions of fire and soil erosion will emerge. The impact on tourism will be realized - and, of course, water quality and the change in the ecosystems of the western forests. The Mountain Pine Beetle is adapting rapidly to global warming, what are our strategies to adapt to the Pine Beetle?
r
Reader Comments
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Wowsers! I'm impressed with the depth of your desperation. Semantic ambiguity is your big chance? LOL
Then again, it really hasn't been going very well for climatrollogists lately, has it? Especially on this board. ;)
Go here, babalou. Bet all you want. Let us know how you do. Make sure you post you bets. You can also request a new market (e.g. for 2016)
A couple of interesting tidbits from the past few days:
1) The Amazon rainforest is drying out due to warming oceans, making it more susceptible to fires. Seems the wet jungle isn't so wet anymore: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= rising-ocean-temperatures-prime-amazon-for-fire
2) Possible good news: urban areas may be able to offset some warming: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/2/024004
3) The West Coast oyster industry is being killed by climate change: http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20120412/NEWS 0107/204120428/
4) Great news: a Gallup poll indicates that public understanding of climate science continues to rebound despite the best efforts--and tens of millions of dollars spent--by denialists: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/12/46335 3/gallup-public-understanding-of-climate-science-c ontinues-rebounding/
5) Dana Nuccitelli has a great deconstruction of that yammering bit of denialist tripe from the non-climatologist NASA retirees. Among the many great points brought up: NASA currently employs 18,000 people, and has tens of thousands more retirees. Why, then, could they only scrounge up a few dozen? And another point: NASA employs a large number of actual climate scientists, yet not a single one signed that silly letter/ Why do you suppose that might be? http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/12 /attacks-climate-science-nasa-staff?newsfeed=true
6) Michael Mann wrote a great editorial the other day: http://e360.yale.edu/feature/climate_scientist_mi chael_mann_fights_back_against_skeptics/2516/
To be honest I couldn't care less one way or the other about AGWT. I just like coming here to have some fun playing devils advocate.
To be honest none of you do either, if you did you would change your lifestyle and be living off the land.
You remind me of someone screaming the victim is bleeding to death and continue to point out why, while standing around and doing nothing to stop the bleeding. Talking all day about a problem will not stop or fix the problem. I will tell you the same thing I would tell anyone "You should either step up or shut up".
It would be much more efficient if he ran the exhaust pipes into the BBQ to heat it up. Don't you think? Not very much heat is built up in the transmission. If the
Hello, nymore.
I am not able to vouch for Neapolitan, or anyone else on this blog, as to what their own personal efforts have been towards the mitigation of the ever rising atmospheric CO2 levels. I have seen very little of what you try to do, by the various posts you have made, to mitigate the problems. You brag about the fuel inefficient truck you drive as easily as Cat5Hurricane would brag that he would never even try to recycle anything. You have shown me that you are are a knowledgeable and intelligent person. I have questioned myself as to how intellectually honest you were being with us. You have now revealed that you have no desires to be intellectually honest with us and, more importantly, with even yourself. I am unable to arrive at a logical conclusion for this. Are you able to provide us with some logic for your approach to discussions concerning climate change? Is it really only for the entertainment value you take from it? ... Still, with this being said, I have wondered if some of your posts were not made to show others the illogical reasoning that some would use to deny the science. Perhaps as an effort to inform through the use of easily debunked nonsensical posts? Perhaps your method for teaching others is to raise valid questions concerning the AGWT that do not, in fact, disprove or even cause concern over the validity of the theory? I will say that you do have me asking myself what your true motives are. To this extent, congratulations!
What an original thought for making a point! Use a photoshopped image to put your opposition in a bad light. Do you have the original image? Are we able to see who is actually "cooking with gas" engines now? He looks too thin to be Rush, but Beck may fit. ..., See how easy that is? What have we gained by this? The Raspberry Award?
Anyone have a bar of soap and a back brush?
It proves how desperate the
ers really are...........
This will do it for us............
I hope you have figured out how they achieve this as I have.......
Soo...a passenger in a vehicle that is rushing toward a cliff at breakneck speed, should have an alternate destination (and presumably a route to get there) before shouting "STOP!!!" at the top of their lungs? Excuse me if I find your position, well nutty.
Also, you have little to no idea what I, or anyone else on this board, have or haven't done.
I found this to be one of your more substantive posts, Temples. Keep up the good work! :)
I see you have removed the article written by Laframboise. Good. Laframboise is a dishonest blogger and in the world of climate sceptic blogging she is at the lower end of the spectrum.
More about Laframboise
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/0707 05153019.htm
Someone turned up the thermostat, wonder what the plant hardiness graph looked like then, curious.
There wasn't a plant hardiness graph then.
There were also no homo sapiens, dependent upon industrial agriculture for their survival.
Hope that helps.
This was one of the reasons that I stopped replying to snowlover... his/her comments were becoming the blog version of a denial of service attack. Once he started attacking every single data or theory about global warming, it was clear he wasn't seeking truth.
I think Nymore is the same.
(the other reason is that I have been busy as heck).
BBC article on how the Bering Straight relates to climate changes.
Larget pun ever?: "Bering" straight.
Source article for the BBC
Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30N, 85 - 90W) to climb to 1.4C (2.5F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.
With all due respect Dr. Masters my idea can prevent this from occurring by reducing the increased water vapor by cooling the SSTs.............
This is very true, overwash12. Higher SSTs, in the GOM, only increases the potential for larger, stronger hurricanes. This, by itself, will not create larger, stronger hurricanes. We seem to keep increasing the potentials, in so many areas.
Link
Link
and
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Ouch!
So you think that stream flow in rivers is keeping it from warming?
Howzat work? LOL
Nonsense. The "prediction" was for penguin numbers by the end of the century.
Get back to me in 88 years.
LOL They can't predict the weather, but they can predict the penguin population at the end of the century? You people really believe this stuff?
Weather is much more difficult to predict than a population of animals, on the whole. So, I don't have to "believe" anything. :)
A casino can't predict whether you will win or lose tonight. Yet they build casinos.
Same principle. Which you know well.
It's the wrong site to be going for the low brow crowd.
Science Daily Link
"Recent research suggests that under business-as-usual carbon emissions, the Greenland ice sheet will vanish in 2,000 years. If humans managed to limit global warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius), the disappearance would take 50,000 years."
I don't brake for trolls !
An analog for Plant Hardiness would be the fossil record, they clearly show the types and extent to which warm weather plants thrived in the pre-historic
era.
Not sure what you mean by Homo Sapiens?
However, there are some commentators that think that Homo Sapiens may not have completely prevailed, that perhaps Neanderthal man still effects the modern gene pool. Yes, many reckon that far from eating Neanderthal man we may have in fact have mated with them. It's a contentious issue, many arguing the case against, pointing out that Homo Sapiens and Neanderthals contain different numbers of chromosomes and therefore their offspring would be incapable of reproducing.
Whatever the reason, Neanderthal man was driven further and further west in face of the Homo Sapien wave which moved steadily across Europe. They made their final stand in caves wedged into the towering cliffs of Gibraltar, gazing over at the northern fringes of Africa, their homeland of millions of years before. The last of the Neanderthals breathed his last breath over twenty-five thousand years ago, marking the end of a remarkably long existence. They had survived in Europe for two hundred thousand years, from as far West as Britain, to as far East as Mongolia. It is believed that their numbers never exceeded fifteen thousand but they knew how to endure in the most hostile of climates
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/2487592
Is organized agriculture just a smaller scale than Industrial, or is Industrial more concentrated?
The Neolithic Revolution was the first agricultural revolution. It was the wide-scale transition of many human cultures from a lifestyle of hunting and gathering to agriculture and settlement. Archaeological data indicates that various forms of plants and animal domestication evolved independently in six separate locations worldwide circa 10,000–7000 years BP (8,000–5,000 BC). The earliest known evidence exists in the tropical and subtropical areas of southwestern/southern Asia.[1]
Questions: did our neolithic farming initiate global warming 12,700 ybp? Nope. Did the ice melt? Yep.
Will it freeze over again? Yep.
Anyway we can control these global temp. variations.
Not likely given current technology.
I like this report on the adaptability of bears.
7 July 2011 Last updated at 12:00 ET Share this pageEmail Print Share this page
ShareFacebookTwitter.Polar bears have maternal Irish brown bear ancestorsBy Steven McKenzie
BBC Scotland Highlands and Islands reporter
However, just before or during the last Ice Age the two species came together and polar bears mated with female Irish brown bears, the scientists said.
The maternal lineage can still be traced to all polar bears today, they added.
Prof Daniel Bradley, of Trinity College Dublin (TCD) and Dr Ceiridwen Edwards, formerly of TCD and now at Oxford University, collaborated with Prof Beth Shapiro, of Pennsylvania State University, in the study.
Previously, Dr Edwards attempted to carry out DNA analysis of a sample taken from bones of a polar bear washed into caves in north west Scotland 18,000 years ago.
However, DNA had not survived in the remains from the Bone Caves at Inchnadamph in Sutherland.
'Environmental stresses'
Brown bear bones have been found across Ireland, with some of the best preserved examples recovered by cavers at Poll na mBear - Cave of the Bears - in County Leitrim, in May 1997.
Eoghan Lynch and Barry Keenan made the first finds, followed by later discoveries by other speleologists.Dr Edwards, the research paper's lead author, sequenced the mitochondrial DNA from different time depths and from bones recovered from the eight sites.
She found that the older bears in Ireland - from between 43,000 and 38,000 years ago and before the last Ice Age arrived - had the same genetic signature as brown bears living today in eastern Europe.
But DNA from bears that roamed Ireland in cooler times, 38,000 to 10,000 years ago, have sequences that are the closest match yet to modern polar bears
Link
So like Dr. Rood's Beetle, it seems life does adapt to the ever-changing climate which will continue despite Man's best efforts. Hot and Cold.
I want to know how many people must DIE before something is done?
Let the CYA begin
Here is the report (source Nature Geoscience)
Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century
Julie Gardelle,
Etienne Berthier
& Yves Arnaud
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature Geoscience
(2012)
doi:10.1038/ngeo1450
Received
10 November 2011
Accepted
19 March 2012
Published online
15 April 2012
Assessments of the state of health of Hindu-Kush%u2013Karakoram%u2013Himalaya glaciers and their contribution to regional hydrology and global sea-level rise suffer from a severe lack of observations1. The globally averaged mass balance of glaciers and ice caps is negative1, 2, 3. An anomalous gain of mass has been suggested for the Karakoram glaciers2, 4, 5, 6, but was not confirmed by recent estimates of mass balance. Furthermore, numerous glacier surges in the region that lead to changes in glacier length and velocity7, 8, 9, 10, 11 complicate the interpretation of the available observations. Here, we calculate the regional mass balance of glaciers in the central Karakoram between 1999 and 2008, based on the difference between two digital elevation models. We find a highly heterogeneous spatial pattern of changes in glacier elevation, which shows that ice thinning and ablation at high rates can occur on debris-covered glacier tongues. The regional mass balance is just positive at 0.110.22%u2009m%u2009yr%u22121 water equivalent and in agreement with the observed reduction of river runoff that originates in this area12. Our measurements confirm an anomalous mass balance in the Karakoram region and indicate that the contribution of Karakoram glaciers to sea-level rise was %u22120.01%u2009mm%u2009yr%u22121 for the period from 1999 to 2008, 0.05%u2009mm%u2009yr%u22121 lower than suggested before13.
ScienceDaily (Apr. 16, 2012) — Like snow sliding off a roof on a sunny day, the Greenland Ice Sheet may be sliding faster into the ocean due to massive releases of meltwater from surface lakes, according to a new study by the University of Colorado Boulder-based Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.Such lake drainages may affect sea-level rise, with implications for coastal communities, according to the researchers. "This is the first evidence that Greenland's 'supraglacial' lakes have responded to recent increases in surface meltwater production by draining more frequently, as opposed to growing in size," says CIRES research associate William Colgan, who co-led the new study with CU-Boulder computer science doctoral student Yu-Li Liang.
During summer, meltwater pools into lakes on the ice sheet's surface. When the water pressure gets high enough, the ice fractures beneath the lake, forming a vertical drainpipe, and "a huge burst of water quickly pulses through to the bed of the ice sheet," Colgan said.
Link
ScienceDaily (Apr. 11, 2012) %u2014 Researchers at Oregon State University have definitively linked an increase in ocean acidification to the collapse of oyster seed production at a commercial oyster hatchery in Oregon, where larval growth had declined to a level considered by the owners to be "non-economically viable."
Link
This prevents that.
Yep. 450,000 to 125,000 years ago definitely qualifies as "pre-historic." It also largely qualifies as "pre-human."
Look in the mirror, or out the window. All those people-shaped things are members of Homo Sapiens. I haven't kept up to date on the topic, but the last I heard this species evolved in the last 100,000 years or so.
By industrial agriculture what I mean is much larger scale than organized, yes. Industrial agriculture is what makes the current population possible. Without it, the Earth's human population would be much smaller.
If industrial agriculture becomes impossible, then it's easy to see that the human population of Earth must adjust to accommodate the new realities. That is, humans will die by the billions. We won't go extinct, but the herd will be thinned out quite a bit.
There is every reason to believe that industrial agriculture is going to become very difficult (if we're lucky) to impossible (if we aren't so lucky.)
The period you are talking about had very little population --maybe 10 million people on the entire planet. That is about 14/10000ths of the current population. They were numerically incapable of doing much to the Earth on anything more than a local level. And they certain weren't digging up much, if any, fossil fuels to add CO2 to the Earth's atmosphere. So your comparison is ridiculous and indicative of nothing.
The bears "adapted" by means of the deaths of many bears. That is the sort of "adapting" that many of us would like to see avoided. Sure, Homo sapiens will survive --barring a complete and catastrophic climate change like the PETM, and some might survive even that-- but the cost of that survival may well be that billions of other humans die. That is a cost only a sociopath can love.
Question: Since you have stated that your purpose in being here is simply "stirring the pot" --trolling, in intertube talk-- why should anyone bother to respond to anything you post on this board?
Why shouldn't everyone serious about this topic, from whatever POV, simply put you on ignore?
During a typical catastrophic lake drainage, about 1 million cubic meters of meltwater -- which is equivalent to the volume of about 4,000 Olympic swimming pools -- funnels to the ice sheet's underside within a day or two. Once the water reaches the ice sheet's belly that abuts underlying rock, it may turn the ice-bed surface into a Slip 'N Slide, lubricating the ice sheet's glide into the ocean. This would accelerate the sea-level rise associated with climate change.
Alternatively, however, the lake drainages may carve out sub-glacial "sewers" to efficiently route water to the ocean. "This would drain the ice sheet's water, making less water available for ice-sheet sliding," Colgan said. That would slow the ice sheet's migration into the ocean and decelerate sea-level rise.
"Lake drainages are a wild card in terms of whether they enhance or decrease the ice sheet's slide," Colgan said. Finding out which scenario is correct is a pressing question for climate models and for communities preparing for sea-level change, he said.
More proof of absolutely nothing despite the fear mongering headline.
I could care less if you respond or not, no that is not accurate. It is not possible to care less because I do not care.
You care enough to post...and to tell me that you don't care.
You may want to look up what "don't care" means. I suggest starting with honey badgers. ;)
This puts us back to pre-industrial revolution values.........
This
prevents war...
The new cold war: Militaries eying Arctic resources
OKOSUKA, Japan – To the world's military leaders, the debate over climate change is long over. They are preparing for a new kind of Cold War in the Arctic, anticipating that rising temperatures there will open up a treasure trove of resources, long-dreamed-of sea lanes and a slew of potential conflicts.
By Arctic standards, the region is already buzzing with military activity, and experts believe that will increase significantly in the years ahead.
Last month, Norway wrapped up one of the largest Arctic maneuvers ever -- Exercise Cold Response -- with 16,300 troops from 14 countries training on the ice for everything from high intensity warfare to terror threats. Attesting to the harsh conditions, five Norwegian troops were killed when their C-130 Hercules aircraft crashed near the summit of Kebnekaise, Sweden's highest mountain.
The U.S., Canada and Denmark held major exercises two months ago, and in an unprecedented move, the military chiefs of the eight main Arctic powers -- Canada, the U.S., Russia, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland -- gathered at a Canadian military base last week to specifically discuss regional security issues.
None of this means a shooting war is likely at the North Pole any time soon. But as the number of workers and ships increases in the High North to exploit oil and gas reserves, so will the need for policing, border patrols and -- if push comes to shove -- military muscle to enforce rival claims.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that 13 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and 30 percent of its untapped natural gas is in the Arctic. Shipping lanes could be regularly open across the Arctic by 2030 as rising temperatures continue to melt the sea ice, according to a National Research Council analysis commissioned by the U.S. Navy last year.
What countries should do about climate change remains a heated political debate. But that has not stopped north-looking militaries from moving ahead with strategies that assume current trends will continue.
Russia, Canada and the United States have the biggest stakes in the Arctic. With its military budget stretched thin by Iraq, Afghanistan and more pressing issues elsewhere, the United States has been something of a reluctant northern power, though its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, which can navigate for months underwater and below the ice cap, remains second to none.
Russia -- one-third of which lies within the Arctic Circle -- has been the most aggressive in establishing itself as the emerging region's superpower.
Rob Huebert, an associate political science professor at the University of Calgary in Canada, said Russia has recovered enough from its economic troubles of the 1990s to significantly rebuild its Arctic military capabilities, which were a key to the overall Cold War strategy of the Soviet Union, and has increased its bomber patrols and submarine activity.
He said that has in turn led other Arctic countries -- Norway, Denmark and Canada -- to resume regional military exercises that they had abandoned or cut back on after the Soviet collapse. Even non-Arctic nations such as France have expressed interest in deploying their militaries to the Arctic.
"We have an entire ocean region that had previously been closed to the world now opening up," Huebert said. "There are numerous factors now coming together that are mutually reinforcing themselves, causing a buildup of military capabilities in the region. This is only going to increase as time goes on."
Noting that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, the U.S. Navy in 2009 announced a beefed-up Arctic Roadmap by its own task force on climate change that called for a three-stage strategy to increase readiness, build cooperative relations with Arctic nations and identify areas of potential conflict.
"We want to maintain our edge up there," said Cmdr. Ian Johnson, the captain of the USS Connecticut, which is one of the U.S. Navy's most Arctic-capable nuclear submarines and was deployed to the North Pole last year. "Our interest in the Arctic has never really waned. It remains very important."
But the U.S. remains ill-equipped for large-scale Arctic missions, according to a simulation conducted by the U.S. Naval War College. A summary released last month found the Navy is "inadequately prepared to conduct sustained maritime operations in the Arctic" because it lacks ships able to operate in or near Arctic ice, support facilities and adequate communications.
"The findings indicate the Navy is entering a new realm in the Arctic," said Walter Berbrick, a War College professor who participated in the simulation. "Instead of other nations relying on the U.S. Navy for capabilities and resources, sustained operations in the Arctic region will require the Navy to rely on other nations for capabilities and resources."
He added that although the U.S. nuclear submarine fleet is a major asset, the Navy has severe gaps elsewhere -- it doesn't have any icebreakers, for example. The only one in operation belongs to the Coast Guard. The U.S. is currently mulling whether to add more icebreakers.
Acknowledging the need to keep apace in the Arctic, the United States is pouring funds into figuring out what climate change will bring, and has been working closely with the scientific community to calibrate its response.
"The Navy seems to be very on board regarding the reality of climate change and the especially large changes we are seeing in the Arctic," said Mark C. Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado. "There is already considerable collaboration between the Navy and civilian scientists and I see this collaboration growing in the future."
The most immediate challenge may not be war -- both military and commercial assets are sparse enough to give all countries elbow room for a while -- but whether militaries can respond to a disaster.
Heather Conley, director of the Europe program at the London-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said militaries probably will have to rescue their own citizens in the Arctic before any confrontations arise there.
"Catastrophic events, like a cruise ship suddenly sinking or an environmental accident related to the region's oil and gas exploration, would have a profound impact in the Arctic," she said. "The risk is not militarization; it is the lack of capabilities while economic development and human activity dramatically increases that is the real risk."
Link
Is there a point? What am I missing?
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