Tropical Cyclones Giovanna & Thirteen Struggling

By: SPLbeater , 6:12 PM GMT on February 17, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone Giovanna has been drifting to towards the southern direction for the last few days after delivering a pounding to the island nation of Madagascar. The system has remained with sustained wind speeds of 55 knots. Wind shear is low over the system, at 5-10 knots due to an anti-cyclone centered over the eastern half of Giovanna. A report from February 15th has said that the death toll from Giovanna so far has risen to 16, and may unfortunately continue to rise in the near future. atleast 65 are injured from the system, and over 11,000 people are homeless.

Satellite image of Giovanna over Madagascar on the 14th dropping torrents of rainfall, credit: NASA



Forecast For Giovanna


Giovanna should continue moving towards a general southeast to east direction in the next day or so, while cold water temperatures begin to rob the system of its fuel source. As the system moves in this direction, land interaction from southern Madagascar will also begin taking its toll on the system again, and Giovanna will slowly weaken to a post tropical cyclone during the next 2-3 days. Dry air lies to the systems west, and this may be able to penetrate into the system due to the lack of deep convection on the northern side. Southern Madagascar should watch this system for the threat of potentially heavy rainfall.



Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Struggling


Tropical cyclone Thirteen was once forecast to make it to a high end category 2 system, but an unexpected weakening cyclone took place yesterday morning. The system has remained at an intensity of 35 knots throughout the last 24 hours, and only expected to strengthen slightly. Dry air may be effecting the system as seen on MIMIC-TPW loops, with some dry air to the systems south and west, trying to make its way into the system from the west. Convection has struggled to sustain with the system, with a few clusters over the LLCC.

IR satellite image of the South Indian Ocean. 13S(Thirteen) is located towards the center.



Forecast For 13S


A subtropical ridge lies to the south of the system, and this should guide Thirteen to the west-southwest for the next few days. As Thirteen gets closer to Madagascar, the system will begin a turn to the southwest on the northwest periphery of the ridge. Sea surface temperatures(SST's) beneath and around the system are about 29-30C, and will remain in this range as Thirteen passes over them. as Thirteen begins its turn towards the southwest in a few days, water temperatures will be cooler, at 27-28C. The system will also be battling dry air all the way through if convection cannot hold itself together. This lack of a Central Dense Overcast(CDO) also makes Thirteen vulnerable to wind shear, but wind shear will not be a problem for atleast the next 24 hours as an anti-cyclone lies over the system. This decreases the shear to the low range of 5-10 knots. The islands of Rodrigues, Mauritius, and Reunion should watch this system as it moves through the forecast track nearing these islands.

Elsewhere In The Tropics

Tropical Depression One has formed in the southern half of the South China Sea, and is on its way to Vietnam. Only slight strengthening is expected before landfall.
The NOGAPS develops a system south of Indonesia in roughly 5 days, a second small weak system in 7 days, and another weak system in 8 days. The GFS shows no TC development in the S Indian, but tries consolidating a system in the western half of the Arafura Sea in 8 days.

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That is it for today, thanks all for stopping in and I hope you all have a blessed weekend ahead of you!

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7. SPLbeater
3:02 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
Quoting KeyWestSun:
Hey! Thought I'd drop in since I saw you post your update on Dr. Masters main blog. Great work! Are you going to be posting active, up-to-date entries into the upcoming 2012 Atlantic cane season?? I need a couple good go-to blogs besides Jeff M. to rely upon.


hey KeyWest, thanks. I try to make my posts worthy of reading! And yes, I will be a year-round tropical weather blogger. If it is quiet, I shall blog on the quietness then! I usually post every 3-4 days, and my information is up to date on that day. Sometimes if a significant event has taken place in the tropics, I blog repeatedly each day or each other day.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
5. SPLbeater
12:41 AM GMT on February 18, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
West Pacific
------

January
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa

South Pacific (East of 160E)
-------------------------

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

Southwest Pacific/Eastern Indian
-------------------------------

January
05U.NONAME
06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)

Southwest Indian Ocean
---------------------

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.GIOVANNA - 932 hPa
10R.NONAME - 999 hPa

=============================
I'll be a little happy with a little down time with disturbances/cyclones. =P


Oh yes, I forgot about how active you are with these systems! 13S appears to be around for another 5 days, and if the NOGAPS verifies to come true your going to be busy! (I am getting a bit tired of tracking a Southern Indian Ocean system myself)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
4. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:11 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
West Pacific
------

January
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1004 hPa

South Pacific (East of 160E)
-------------------------

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

Southwest Pacific/Eastern Indian
-------------------------------

January
05U.NONAME
06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)

Southwest Indian Ocean
---------------------

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.GIOVANNA - 932 hPa
10R.NONAME - 999 hPa

=============================
I'll be a little happy with a little down time with disturbances/cyclones. =P
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
3. SPLbeater
8:22 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Quoting NaplesFLBreeze:
Fine job. Well done.


Thanks man.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Great post! Looks like the tropics will quiet down some the next week or so... Lot of storms dying out there :D


Yes, the Southern Indian may experience a brief period of no activity, but with the GFS and NOGAPS wanting to bring a system to life near NW Australia/ south of Indonesia, it may not be inactive for long.

Thanks for stoppin' by.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
2. MAweatherboy1
8:01 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Great post! Looks like the tropics will quiet down some the next week or so... Lot of storms dying out there :D
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7926
1. NaplesFLBreeze
7:10 PM GMT on February 17, 2012
Fine job. Well done.
Member Since: February 14, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 19

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About SPLbeater

I started interest in the weather in 2009...born and currently residing in North Carolina. 100% Patriot, too.